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1) One team that I've definitely overlooked is Stanford, who I just added to the bubble section below. They possess a resume that's definitely made it into the tournament before, as a team with elite schedule numbers and around 14 losses from the conference that sends the most teams to the tournament. They're my 6th team out of the field now, but I could see them moving up. Should they sweep their Arizona road trip and then make it to the Pac-12 semis, I would feel pretty good about their at-large chances. 2) I'm also increasingly pessimistic about Monmouth's at-large chances. While some bubble teams above them will certainly lose, it's possible that say, Butler and George Washington pick up big wins and pass them. Monmouth would be my last team in right now without the MAAC auto-bid, and I don't think enough bubble teams will lose between now and Selection Sunday to make up for the ~7 spots Monmouth would drop with a loss in the MAAC tournament. 1:  Ka...

1) The only changes in my bracket today is slight re-shuffling of the 4-line after Texas' clobbering at the hands of Kansas, and Syracuse and Providence switching seed lines. 2) Now that we're in March, conference tournaments start today. Once teams start locking up bids I'll denote them with bold and italics. 1:  Kansas ,  Villanova , Oklahoma, Virginia 2:  Oregon,  Xavier,  Miami (FL),  North Carolina 3: Michigan State, Utah,  West Virginia,  Maryland 4: Iowa State, Duke, Kentucky, Texas 5: California, Purdue, Iowa, Arizona 6: Baylor,  Texas A&M, Indiana,  Texas Tech 7: Dayton,  St. Joseph's , Wisconsin, Seton Hall 8: Notre Dame, Colorado, Pittsburgh, South Carolina 9: Oregon State,  Wichita State , USC, Providence 10: St. Mary's, Syracuse,  Arkansas-LR,  St. Bonaventure 11: Cincinnati, Michigan, (VCU/Tulsa), (Vanderbilt/Connecticut) 12:  Monmouth, Temple, Valparaiso, San Diego State 13:  So...

1) One of the main stories I'm going to be looking out for on Selection Sunday is how the committee views the Pac-12. The Pac-12 scheduled very smart this year and as a result they have 7 teams in the bracket with UCLA and Washington hanging on to a bubble hope. I don't have any of the aforementioned 7 teams as particularly bubbly- but I know I'm higher than most on Oregon State. There's a large disconnect between how the RPI views the Pac-12 and how Kenpom and Sagarin due- obviously I lean towards the latter interpretations but I doubt the committee will. A bad seed for Oregon State could be a signal that the committee is moving away from their ridiculous reliance on the RPI they've had for years, and perhaps will seed the bracket closer to the true strength of teams. 2) Only bubble team of note tonight is Syracuse, and I highly doubt they win in Chapel Hill. If they do, they're essentially a lock. 3) Here's my bracket for today: 1:  Kansas ,  Vill...

1) I just ran my model, and this is what it spit out. Lots of movement yesterday- Florida is out of my bracket for the first time this season now and they're in genuine bubble trouble. Vanderbilt makes their first move in since January. I'd consider any team on the top 7 seed lines a lock at this point, and any teams on the 8 or 9 lines as teams that should be in. After that, the bubble begins. 2) Notable bubble games today: Xavier @ Seton Hall- The Pirates will be very close to  a lock if they win this one. Houston @ Connecticut- Houston is better than their RPI suggests, but the Huskies will probably be out of my field with a loss. Duke @ Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh can probably avoid real bubble danger if the win this. 1: Kansas , Villanova , Oklahoma, Xavier 2: Oregon, Miami (FL), Virginia, North Carolina 3: Michigan State, West Virginia, Utah, Duke 4: Maryland, Iowa, Iowa State, Kentucky 5: Texas, Baylor, Arizona, Indiana 6: California, Purdue, Texas A&M , Dayton...

1) For likely the last time this season, no change in my bracket today. I'm sure today will be packed full of action throughout the bracket. I'll try to run my model again tomorrow to get the bracket as updated and accurate as possible. I also might trot out some kind of bubble watch column this week, so stay tuned for that. 1:  Kansas, Villanova , Xavier, Oklahoma 2:  Oregon , Virginia, Miami (FL), Michigan State 3:  North Carolina , Maryland, West Virginia, Utah 4:  Kentucky , Duke ,  Iowa, Iowa State 5: Dayton, Purdue, Baylor, Arizona 6: Texas A&M, California, Texas,  Indiana 7: Notre Dame, Colorado, Wisconsin, Texas Tech 8: South Carolina, USC,  St. Joseph's , Seton Hall 9: Oregon State,  Wichita State,  Providence, Connecticut 10: Pittsburgh, Tulsa, Florida, Syracuse 11:  Monmouth,  (Michigan/St. Bonaventure),  St. Mary's , (Cincinnati/Butler) 12:  Arkansas-LR,  Temple, San Diego State, Valpara...

1) I never thought Hawaii had a shot at an at-large, but their home loss to UC Riverside late last night dropped them a line and definitely cost them whatever minuscule shot they had. Providence slides into more dangerous territory with their loss to Seton Hall while the Pirates now look pretty good. A quiet night tonight, but Saturday should see a lot of movement around the bubble. 1:  Kansas, Villanova , Xavier, Oklahoma 2:  Oregon , Virginia, Miami (FL), Michigan State 3:  North Carolina , Maryland, West Virginia, Utah 4:  Kentucky , Duke ,  Iowa, Iowa State 5: Dayton, Purdue, Baylor, Arizona 6: Texas A&M, California, Texas,  Indiana 7: Notre Dame, Colorado, Wisconsin, Texas Tech 8: South Carolina, USC,  St. Joseph's , Seton Hall 9: Oregon State,  Wichita State,  Providence, Connecticut 10: Pittsburgh, Tulsa, Florida, Syracuse 11:  Monmouth,  (Michigan/St. Bonaventure),  St. Mary's , (Cincinnati/...

1) Wisconsin gets a huge win @Iowa and is nearing lock territory. VCU takes a bad loss at George Mason and falls out, Butler re-enters for the first time in a couple of weeks in their spot. The much anticipated Xavier/Villanova game didn't change my top line, although it made me feel pretty strongly about those 4 being the #1 seeds right now. 1:  Kansas, Villanova , Xavier, Oklahoma 2: Oregon , Virginia, Miami (FL), Michigan State 3:  North Carolina , Maryland, West Virginia, Utah 4: Kentucky , Duke ,  Iowa, Iowa State 5: Dayton, Purdue, Baylor, Arizona 6: Texas A&M, California, Texas,  Indiana 7: Notre Dame, USC, Colorado, Wisconsin 8: Texas Tech, South Carolina, St. Joseph's , Providence 9: Oregon State, Wichita State,  Seton Hall, Connecticut 10: Pittsburgh, Tulsa, Florida, Syracuse 11:  Monmouth,  (Michigan/St. Bonaventure), St. Mary's , (Cincinnati/Butler) 12:  Arkansas-LR,  Temple, San Diego State, Valparaiso ...