Post-Week 6 College Football Top 25
Week 6 was yet another slow week, as this season is taking a particularly long time to really get going. However, week 7's slate looks like by far the best of the year so far, so we should ideally be in for more shakeups in these rankings soon.
1. Clemson (1, 75.7%)
2. Alabama (2, 33.1%)
3. Ohio State (3, 34.8%)
4. Georgia (4, 12.2%)
5. LSU (5, 4.2%)
The top 5 remain intact in the same order, although Ohio State continues to move up. They're now only a fraction of a point behind Alabama, and would be around field goal underdogs against Clemson. We've gone from a top tier of 2 in the preseason to a top tier of 3 with the addition of the Buckeyes.
6. Oklahoma (7, 10.8%)
7. Auburn (6, 0.4%)
8. Wisconsin (9, 3.9%)
9. Penn State (8, 1.8%)
10. Florida (16, 1.0%)
Auburn is the lone team with a loss in the top 10, although they only fell one spot for their loss to Florida. Speaking of the Gators, they now move into my top 10 for the first time all year, although I only give them around a 30% chance of beating LSU this weekend and they still play Georgia and Missouri away from home.
11. Texas (12, 1.2%)
12. Notre Dame (13, 2.9%)
13. UCF (10, 11.5%)
14. Oregon (11, 2.6%)
15. Missouri (18, 3.8%)
Oregon is continuing to look like the best team in the Pac-12, given Washington's loss to Stanford last weekend. Missouri is quietly climbing up the ranks as they continue to rattle off wins after their season opening loss to Wyoming. UCF remains relatively high in my ratings despite picking up their second loss of the season to Cincinnati.
16. Iowa (15, 1.2%)
17. Michigan (21, 0.1%)
18. Iowa State (24, 0.5%)
19. Washington (14, 3.1%)
20. Texas A&M (19, <0.1%)
Two of the five teams in this group lost last weekend, as Iowa fell to Michigan and Washington lost to Stanford. We're low enough on the list that no team here has any realistic playoff chance, perhaps one of the Iowa schools could win out, but it looks quite unlikely.
21. Utah (20, 3.0%)
22. Oklahoma State (17, 0.3%)
23. Appalachian State (23, 6.7%)
24. Michigan State (22, <0.1%)
25. Mississippi State (25, <0.1%)
Appalachian State and Boise State are locked in a close battle for the Group of Five spot in the Cotton Bowl. The Broncos have a lighter schedule, but I rate them slightly below the Mountaineers. Elsewhere, Utah remains the favorite in the Pac-12 South and Oklahoma leads a crowded 2nd tier of the Big 12.
Missed the Cut: Cincinnati, Boise State, Louisiana, USC, North Carolina, Baylor, Wake Forest, Minnesota, Stanford, Kansas State
Other notable win out probabilities:
Boise State 11.1%
Louisiana 5.9%
Toledo 1.3%
Army 1.2%
Memphis 0.8%
SMU 0.4%
Minnesota 0.2%
Wake Forest 0.1%
Baylor 0.1%
1. Clemson (1, 75.7%)
2. Alabama (2, 33.1%)
3. Ohio State (3, 34.8%)
4. Georgia (4, 12.2%)
5. LSU (5, 4.2%)
The top 5 remain intact in the same order, although Ohio State continues to move up. They're now only a fraction of a point behind Alabama, and would be around field goal underdogs against Clemson. We've gone from a top tier of 2 in the preseason to a top tier of 3 with the addition of the Buckeyes.
6. Oklahoma (7, 10.8%)
7. Auburn (6, 0.4%)
8. Wisconsin (9, 3.9%)
9. Penn State (8, 1.8%)
10. Florida (16, 1.0%)
Auburn is the lone team with a loss in the top 10, although they only fell one spot for their loss to Florida. Speaking of the Gators, they now move into my top 10 for the first time all year, although I only give them around a 30% chance of beating LSU this weekend and they still play Georgia and Missouri away from home.
11. Texas (12, 1.2%)
12. Notre Dame (13, 2.9%)
13. UCF (10, 11.5%)
14. Oregon (11, 2.6%)
15. Missouri (18, 3.8%)
Oregon is continuing to look like the best team in the Pac-12, given Washington's loss to Stanford last weekend. Missouri is quietly climbing up the ranks as they continue to rattle off wins after their season opening loss to Wyoming. UCF remains relatively high in my ratings despite picking up their second loss of the season to Cincinnati.
16. Iowa (15, 1.2%)
17. Michigan (21, 0.1%)
18. Iowa State (24, 0.5%)
19. Washington (14, 3.1%)
20. Texas A&M (19, <0.1%)
Two of the five teams in this group lost last weekend, as Iowa fell to Michigan and Washington lost to Stanford. We're low enough on the list that no team here has any realistic playoff chance, perhaps one of the Iowa schools could win out, but it looks quite unlikely.
21. Utah (20, 3.0%)
22. Oklahoma State (17, 0.3%)
23. Appalachian State (23, 6.7%)
24. Michigan State (22, <0.1%)
25. Mississippi State (25, <0.1%)
Appalachian State and Boise State are locked in a close battle for the Group of Five spot in the Cotton Bowl. The Broncos have a lighter schedule, but I rate them slightly below the Mountaineers. Elsewhere, Utah remains the favorite in the Pac-12 South and Oklahoma leads a crowded 2nd tier of the Big 12.
Missed the Cut: Cincinnati, Boise State, Louisiana, USC, North Carolina, Baylor, Wake Forest, Minnesota, Stanford, Kansas State
Other notable win out probabilities:
Boise State 11.1%
Louisiana 5.9%
Toledo 1.3%
Army 1.2%
Memphis 0.8%
SMU 0.4%
Minnesota 0.2%
Wake Forest 0.1%
Baylor 0.1%
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