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June Bracketology Update

Now that the deadline to pull out of the NBA draft has passed, we have a clearer picture of rosters for the 2019-20 season. This update reflects all of these changes, as well as the recruiting and coaching changes that have occurred since my last update in early April.

Many teams were helped by the draft declaration deadline last week. Louisville was a big winner, getting Jordan Nwora back and moving up to the top line as a result. LSU moved up 5 seed lines upon the return of Skylar Mays and Javonte Smart. And led by Cole Anthony, North Carolina's outlook has completely changed from a mid seed to #5 overall.

Others have fallen significantly in the past few weeks. Michigan was a 1 seed last time, but the losses of Coach Beilein, Iggy Brazdeikis and Jordan Poole moved them down 7 lines. Auburn lost many key players to the draft and falls from a 2 to an 8. Marquette lost both of the Hauser brothers and tumbled all the way from a 3 seed to out of the field.

This will be the last update u…

Way Too Early 2020 Bracketology

After last night's title game, I figured it would be fun to take a look at what next season is going to look like. This is obviously a very early draft- in the next few weeks, a lot of coaching changes will happen and a lot of players will transfer and declare for the draft. I have made some rough guesses about player retention here, but I don't pretend to be someone who follows the NBA draft super closely. I relied heavily on T-Rank's 2020 projections for this exercise.

Unsurprisingly, most of the teams in this projection made the field this past season. The highest ranked teams who didn't make the tournament this year are Arizona, who returns most of their production from this year and adds 2 top 100 recruits, Notre Dame, who was massively injury-riddled this year, and Missouri, who brings back most of their rotation including possibly Jontay Porter.

In the conference breakdown, one thing that stood out to me was the Pac-12 only having two bids. There's a decent nu…

Bracketology 3/17/19 Evening (FINAL)

The Selection Show is finally upon us. I went through all the resumes again this morning and this is the final product. There are some adjustments from that- Syracuse and Oklahoma have moved down, while Villanova and Seton Hall have moved up, among other changes. I feel decent about the top of the bracket, and decent about the bottom, but less sure about the middle. This is the least sure I've been about a bubble in a few years- any of my at-larges on the 11 line could easily be out of the field, and any of my first four out could easily be in. My guess is that I will probably get 66/68 selections correct this year- all year, I've been assuming the committee will treat the NET primarily as a sorting metric like they did with the RPI but if this changes there could be some profound differences. Best of luck to all my fellow bracketologists, and a big thanks to the Bracket Matrix for compiling all of our submissions all season.

1: Duke, Virginia, GonzagaNorth Carolina
2: Tenness…