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Bracketology 12/10/18

After Tennessee's win over Gonzaga, Kansas moves up to the #1 overall seed. The Jayhawks struggled with New Mexico State, but have a trifecta of fantastic wins against Michigan State, Marquette and Tennessee. No other team has two wins over protected seeds. Elsewhere on the top line, I've moved Michigan up from the two line as their wins are simply just more impressive than Tennessee's or Virginia's, even if they've mostly been at home.

Oklahoma, Houston, and St. John's have all jumped out to fast starts and have gone from not considered in my preseason bracket to bordering on the protected seeds. I'll be watching the Cougars particularly closely- with Wichita State having a down year they're really looking like the team to beat in the American now. If they can turn on the jets in February like they did last year they're a second weekend team in March.

At the bubble, San Francisco is in my bracket for the first time in my 9 years of doing bracketolo…

Bracketology 12/3/18

Conference play kicked off this past week in the Big Ten and SoCon, and combined with the Big Ten/ACC challenge it produced a lot of shuffling up and down the bracket. At the top, I strongly considered putting Michigan on the 1-line after their dominating wins over North Carolina and Purdue. Virginia has a similarly impressive win against Wisconsin, so I decided to keep the Cavs in the last 1 seed.

Oregon has fallen from a 4 seed in my preseason bracket all the way down to the First Four now. The Ducks took an absolutely brutal loss at home to Texas Southern and then followed it up by a road loss at Houston. The Cougars look quite good, and are the class of the American, but it's a win Dana Altman's team could've used.

There's no headliner this week like there was last week with the Big Ten/ACC challenge, but there's a lot of fun OOC rivalry games like Iowa State/Iowa, Creighton/Nebraska and Wisconsin/Marquette.

1: Gonzaga, Kansas, Duke, Virginia
2: Michigan, Nevad…

Final Bowl Projections

There's relatively few changes in the final bowl projections of the season. Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Oklahoma remain in the playoff, and the NY6 bowls are unchanged. If I am wrong about the playoff (Georgia or Ohio State getting in over Oklahoma) it would have ripple effects all the way down the bowls.

Most of the interesting decisions came in the non-NY6 bowls. I had some tough choices about who to leave out of a bowl game- I chose to exclude Southern Miss, Miami (OH), Wyoming and ULM. I feel pretty confident that the latter 3 won't be bowling- Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan and Southern Miss are fighting for the last two bowl bids.

Cotton (Playoff Semifinal): #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Orange (Playoff Semifinal): #1 Alabama vs. #4 Oklahoma
Peach: Michigan vs. LSU
Fiesta: UCF vs. Florida
Rose: Ohio State vs. Washington
Sugar: West Virginia vs. Georgia
Citrus: Penn State vs. Kentucky
Outback: Iowa vs. Mississippi State
Sun: Boston College vs. Utah
TaxSlayer: Miam…

College Football Week 14 Betting Preview

Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
Week 5: 6-2, +4.08 units
Week 6: 0-7, -7.41 units
Week 7: 3-4-1, -1.24 units
Week 8: 2-3, -1.23 units
Week 9: 4-1-1, +2.94 units
Week 10: 2-5, -3.18 units
Week 11: 1-4, -3.26 units
Week 12: 2-4, -2.32 units
Week 13: 3-1, +2.94 units
2018 Season: 39-43-2, -5.88 units

Pittsburgh @ Clemson:

A lot of the buzz about Pitt winning the ACC title was killed last week when they got whacked by Miami. Pitt obviously has a history of big upsets in the last few years, over Miami last year and Clemson the year before. I don't think the Panthers have a serious chance of winning this game, but they'll bring their A-game and Pitt will keep it from getting too out of hand. My line is Clemson -20.5.

Pick: Pittsburgh +27.5 -106

Memphis @ UCF

The complexion of this game has completely changed in light of McKenzie Milton's injury last week. I would have a healthy UCF team as a 1…

Week 14 Bowl Projections

The penultimate bowl projections of the season has quite a few changes across the board. At the top, Oklahoma is now projected in the playoff instead of Michigan, and I've moved Alabama from the Cotton Bowl to the Orange Bowl. Presumably, if there is an Alabama/Oklahoma matchup the committee will send them to Miami given Oklahoma's proximity to the Cotton Bowl.

Elsewhere in the New Year's Six, Michigan and Washington State's losses shook things up. The Wolverines will almost certainly still make a New Year's Six bowl, but I'm less sure about the Cougars. They've dropped below Florida in the AP poll, and if the committee puts them behind both Florida and LSU tonight then I'll have to put LSU in the NY6 over Washington State. Clemson or Ohio State losing this weekend would put Pitt or Northwestern in the NY6, respectively. That would take away a spot from Michigan or Florida or Wazzu.

We've made it to 81 bowl eligible teams, and it'll be 82 if Vir…

Bracketology 11/26/18

After a busy feast week, there's a lot of changes in this week's seed list. The headlining change is Gonzaga moving up to the #1 overall seed after going 3-0 in Maui, including a win over Duke. I debated a lot between Gonzaga and Kansas for the #1 overall spot but ultimately went with the Zags. With games against Tennessee and North Carolina coming up, plus a significantly improved WCC, they'll have plenty of opportunities to prove they deserve the top overall seed.

The other big storyline I've been following is the demise of the mid-tier conferences. The Missouri Valley and Atlantic 10 have had horrible starts to the season- in the Valley, Loyola and Southern Illinois were supposed to carry the flag for the league and neither have looked like at-large teams. A-10 teams have been losing buy games left and right, including some really bad losses to the likes of Hampton and Longwood. The highest rated A-10 team in Kenpom is Davidson at 79- that would've been pretty u…

College Football Week 13 Betting Preview

Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
Week 5: 6-2, +4.08 units
Week 6: 0-7, -7.41 units
Week 7: 3-4-1, -1.24 units
Week 8: 2-3, -1.23 units
Week 9: 4-1-1, +2.94 units
Week 10: 2-5, -3.18 units
Week 11: 1-4, -3.26 units
Week 12: 2-4, -2.32 units
2018 Season: 36-42-2, -8.82 units
Note: All picks are 1 unit
 Kentucky @ Louisville

Louisville might be the biggest disappointment in the FBS this year. In the preseason, I had the Cardinals ranked #34 and had them as 13 point favorites in this game. The wheels have since completely fallen off and they've only had one ACC game within a possession. Kentucky is a 24 point favorite in my model so I've got the Cats here.

Pick: Kentucky -17

Illinois @ Northwestern

Illinois was looking respectable earlier in the season and they even led Penn State in the second half but they were shellacked by Iowa last week. The Illini have nothing to play for while Northwestern…