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Post-Week 7 College Football Top 25

The action picked up a bit in week 7, most notably in Athens as Georgia became the first serious playoff contender to take a loss. Oklahoma and LSU got nice wins to solidify their playoff contention, and Penn State cemented their spot in the top 10.

1. Clemson (1, 74.8%)
2. Alabama (2, 34.8%)
3. Ohio State (3, 34.2%)
4. LSU (5, 5.9%)
5. Oklahoma (6, 13.2%)

The biggest news in this tier is the consistent rise of LSU. The Tigers looked like a distant 3rd in the SEC behind Alabama and Georgia in the preseason, but they're now a legitimate title contender. All eyes turn towards their November 9th clash with Alabama in Tuscaloosa, where I favor the Tide by 7.5.

6. Wisconsin (8, 7.3%)
7. Georgia (4, 6.5%)
8. Auburn (7, 0.5%)
9. Penn State (9, 2.6%)
10. Oregon (14, 4.6%)

Georgia's loss to South Carolina torpedoes their playoff hopes, as I give them less than a 10% chance of even making it to the SEC championship game undefeated. They're favorites in every remaining game, but only…

Post-Week 6 College Football Top 25

Week 6 was yet another slow week, as this season is taking a particularly long time to really get going. However, week 7's slate looks like by far the best of the year so far, so we should ideally be in for more shakeups in these rankings soon.

1. Clemson (1, 75.7%)
2. Alabama (2, 33.1%)
3. Ohio State (3, 34.8%)
4. Georgia (4, 12.2%)
5. LSU (5, 4.2%)

The top 5 remain intact in the same order, although Ohio State continues to move up. They're now only a fraction of a point behind Alabama, and would be around field goal underdogs against Clemson. We've gone from a top tier of 2 in the preseason to a top tier of 3 with the addition of the Buckeyes.

6. Oklahoma (7, 10.8%)
7. Auburn (6, 0.4%)
8. Wisconsin (9, 3.9%)
9. Penn State (8, 1.8%)
10. Florida (16, 1.0%)

Auburn is the lone team with a loss in the top 10, although they only fell one spot for their loss to Florida. Speaking of the Gators, they now move into my top 10 for the first time all year, although I only give them a…

College Football Week 7 Picks

Preseason Win Totals: 1-0 +3.33 units
Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units
Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units
Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units
Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units
Season Total: 21-24-2 +9.17 units

I won my biggest pick last week on Boston College, but split my 6 picks overall to finish essentially flat on the week. I cashed my first preseason win total pick, as San Jose State won their 3rd game of the year, so my 6 unit pick on San Jose State over 2.5 wins in the preseason is now locked in.

Syracuse @ NC State

I've faded NC State multiple times this season and that continues here. Even in a very weak ACC, I struggle to see a path to bowl eligibility for the Wolfpack. They got rolled by a mediocre Florida State team in their last game, and struggled against Ball State before that. Syracuse fell off the radar after their losses to Maryland and Clemson, but they have 2 wins better than NC State's best win.

Syracuse +4.5 -109 (3 units)

Louisville @ Wake Fo…

College Football Week 6 Picks

Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units
Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units
Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units
Season Total: 18-21-2 +8.65 units

Last week was by far my worst of the year, pretty much everything went against me. Much closer to flat for the year now, although the win total picks I made in the preseason comprise a major chunk of my bankroll and are looking quite good right now.

Boston College @ Louisville
Boston College has had a weird start to the year, beating Virginia Tech but losing to Kansas. I still think that they have a decent shot at a bowl, given the wide open state of the middle of the ACC. Louisville lost to a mediocre Florida State team last week and I still think they're one of the worst teams in the conference. I have BC as a mild favorite here.
Boston College +5 -103 (3 units)
Troy @ Missouri
For most of my picks, I can get a sense that it might be a game I like before even seeing the line- but this one caught me by surprise. Missouri i…

Post-Week 5 College Football Top 25

Week 5 was the quietest week of the season so far. Clemson/UNC brought some excitement in the late afternoon window, but overall there were few major shakeups which leads to a relatively stable top 25. Numbers in parenthesis next to each team indicates their ranking last week and their probability of winning out until their conference championship game.

1. Clemson (1, 75.9%)
2. Alabama (2, 30.8%)
3. Ohio State (3, 33.2%)
4. Georgia (4, 10.2%)
5. LSU (5, 2.7%)

Clemson's rating took a substantial hit after their escape against North Carolina, but their lead over the rest of the pack was big enough that they remain #1 despite the drop. However, the gap between the Tigers and the rest of the top 5 is rapidly shrinking. Ohio State has put some distance between themselves and the teams below them and is catching up to Alabama.

6. Auburn (8, 1.5%)
7. Oklahoma (7, 8.7%)
8. Penn State (21, 1.7%)
9. Wisconsin (6, 3.0%)
10. UCF (9, 18.5%)

Auburn is looking more and more like a legitimate cont…

College Football Week 5 Picks

Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units
Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units
Season Total: 17-16-1 +18.72 units

My 3 top picks last week all won straight up as underdogs. Cal and Appalachian State won close games and San Jose State won outright as a 21 point underdog at Arkansas.

New Mexico @ Liberty

This is one of the more surprising lines I've seen this season. Liberty is pretty widely regarded as a bowl team, I have them projected for 7.6 wins. New Mexico required a shootout to beat an awful New Mexico State team at home last week and won't be favored in another game all year. I think this line should be Liberty by 2 touchdowns, not 1.

Liberty -7 -116 (4 units)

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma

Texas Tech started the year with two wins over truly pitiful teams, and then laid an egg against Arizona two weeks ago. However, I still think they're a team that could make a bowl this year and are a tier above Kansas and West Virginia at the bottom of the Big 12. I re…

Pre-Week 5 Championship and Division Odds

Throughout the last few months I've been working on a tool to simulate the remaining weeks of the college football season. I decided to fire up the simulator to see what the state of the various conference races is in my model's eyes. The numbers listed below are rough probabilities, my model's current best guess to within a few percent. For all teams, the first number reported is their probability to win their division (or, in the case of the Big 12, make the conference championship game) and the second is their probability to win their conference.
SEC West Alabama: 65%, 40% LSU: 20%, 10% Auburn: 10%, 5% Mississippi State: 5%, 2% Texas A&M, 1%, <1% Ole Miss: <1%. <1% Arkansas: <1%, <1%
Alabama is unsurprisingly the favorite to win the division, but I expected them to have a better than 65% chance to advance to Atlanta. They're favorites in every remaining game, but it's more likely than not that they drop a game somewhere along the way. LSU will…