Sunday, September 22, 2013

NFL Picks Week 3

Here are my picks for the week!

NFL Picks Week 3: -$190

Game 1: Kansas City @ Philadelphia -3.5

Kansas City +3.5 (2 units) +$200

Game 2: San Diego @ Tennessee -3

San Diego +3 (3 units) +-$0

Game 3: Cleveland @ Minnesota -7

Cleveland +7 (0 units) +$0

Game 4: Tampa Bay @ New England -7

New England -7 (1 unit) +$100

Game 5: Houston @ Baltimore -1

Baltimore -1 (2 units) +$200

Game 6: Saint Louis @ Dallas -4

Saint Louis +7 (0 units) -$0

Game 7: Arizona @ New Orleans -7

Arizona +7 (0 units) -$0

Game 8: Detroit @ Washington +1

Detroit -1 (2 units) +$200

Game 9: Green Bay @ Cincinnati +3

Green Bay -3 (2 units) -$220

Game 10: New York Giants @ Carolina +2

New York Giants -2 (4 units) -$440

Game 11: Atlanta @ Miami -2

Miami -2 (1 unit) +$100

Game 12: Indianapolis @ San Francisco -10

San Francisco -10 (0 units) -$0

Game 13: Jacksonville @ Seattle -19

Jacksonville +19 (1 unit)

Game 14: Buffalo @ New York Jets -2.5

New York Jets -2.5 (0 units)

Game 15: Chicago @ Pittsburgh +2

Pittsburgh +2 (0 units)

Game 16: Oakland @ Denver -15

Oakland +15 (3 units)

Moneyline Underdog: San Diego +137 (1 unit) -$110
Teaser: New York Giants +4, Green Bay +3 (2 units) -$220

Sunday, September 15, 2013

NFL Picks Week 2

Game 1: New York Jets @ New England -11.5

New York Jets +11.5 (2 units)

Game 2: San Diego @ Philadelphia -7

Philadelphia -7 (0 units)

Game 3: Cleveland @ Baltimore -7

Cleveland +7 (1 unit)

Game 4:  Tennessee @ Houston -8

Tennessee +8 (4 units)

Game 5: Miami @ Indianapolis -3

Indianapolis -3 (2 units)

Game 6: Carolina @ Buffalo +3.5

Carolina -3.5 (2 units)

Game 7: Saint Louis @ Atlanta -6

Saint Louis +6 (3 units)

Game 8: Washington @ Green Bay -7.5

Washington +7.5 (0 units)

Game 9:  Dallas @ Kansas City -3

Kansas City -3 (0 units)

Game 10: Minnesota @ Chicago -6

Chicago -6 (2 units)

Game 11: New Orleans @ Tampa Bay +3

New Orleans -3 (1 unit)

Game 12: Detroit @ Arizona +2

Detroit -2 (0 units)

Game 13: Jacksonville @ Oakland -5

Jacksonville +5 (0 units)

Game 14: Denver @ New York Giants +4

New York Giants +4 (2 units)

Game 15: San Francisco @ Seattle -3

Seattle -3 (4 units)

Game 16: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati -7

Pittsburgh +7 (1 unit)


Teaser: Indianapolis +3, Chicago PK (2 units)

ML underdog: Saint Louis +190 (2 units)

ML underdog: Tennessee +320 (1 unit)

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

NFL Picks: Week 1

NFL Picks Week 1: -$1810

My NFL Picks were my most popular feature last year, so I'm bringing them back for 2013. Like last year, my picks will be posted gradually during the week because I type them up on my commute. Here we go!

Game 1: Baltimore @ Denver -8.5
This is the first time in a while that the defending Super Bowl champs haven't opened at home, which could play in to the Raven's psyche here. Denver is out for blood after being eliminated by the Ravens last year in the divisional round. I'm picking line value, not the spot, here so I'm going Baltimore for 2.

Baltimore +8.5 (3 units) -$330

Game 2: New England @ Buffalo +10
New England has been the center of focus this offseason, between Aaron Hernandez and Tim Tebow. However, Tom Brady is still an elite quarterback, and he can make plays even with Hernandez and Gronk out. The Bills have perhaps the murkiest QB situation in the league with Manuel and Tuel. I'm tempted to lay units on New England, but I don want to lay 9.5 on the road until I get more comfortable this year.

New England -10 (0 units) -$0

Game 3: Tennessee @ Pittsburgh -6.5
The Titans are one of my picks to surprise this season, I think that CJ2K is going to live up to his name this year. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has a very jumbled running back situation here and are fielding their worst team in years. I'm picking line value again here and going with the Titans.

Unit Change: The spread has dropped below 7, so I'm dropping this to 1 unit.

Tennessee +6.5 (1 unit) +$100

Game 4: Atlanta @ New Orleans -3
Atlanta has the talent to go to the Super Bowl, and they weren't far away last year. However, I think they're going to win a lot of regular season games and not playoff games again. I don't know how to feel about New Orleans. They have Sean Payton coming back from suspension, and I don't know how much that is going to help so I'm staying away.

New Orleans -3 (0 units) -$0

Game 5: Tampa Bay @ New York Jets +3
Tampa Bay is not a very good football team, and it's gonna show this year. Their talent is concentrated in a few players, and they're very week without them. The Jets have been the subject of a ton of off-season scrutiny, and everyone and their mother is jumping on the ESPN-led "The Jets Suck!" bandwagon. I'm fading the public here, their conceptions of both these teams are way off.

New York Jets +3.5 (4 units) +$400

Game 6: Kansas City @ Jacksonville +3.5
This has got to be the first time in recent history that the teams with the first two draft picks play each other week 1. Kansas City is going to be much improved this year, Alex Smith is the best quarterback they've had in almost a decade. Jacksonville, on the other hand; will still suck. I have no read here; on line value (+3 is about right) or the spot.

Kansas City -3.5 (0 units) +$0

Game 7: Cincinnati @ Chicago -3
The Bengals have now made the playoffs as a wild card 2 years in a row now, an this game against another playoff contender is key for their hopes of making it again this year. Chicago is probably not as good as Cincinnati, although I could see them surprising this year if Forte gets in a groove. I have no read here.

Cincinnati +3 (0 units) +-$0

Game 8: Miami @ Cleveland -1
This line has been drifting higher for a while now, and that's a sign of major public action on Cleveland. I don't get this, considering everyone loved Miami for their acquisitions of Mike Wallace and others. Cleveland has the player who I believe is going to surprise people and challenge for the rushing title: Trent Richardson. I really like Cleveland for line value reasons, but I'm limiting this play to 1 unit because I'm not sure how they'll handle being favorites, a rare spot for them.

Cleveland -1 (1 unit) -$110

Game 9: Seattle @ Carolina +3.5
Seattle is one of the top contenders for the Super Bowl according to Vegas, and I'm going to have to agree. However, this is an awful spot for them with a 1 PM game out east and their first game viewed as a major contender. Carolina, on the other hand, is pretty underrated. I love the spot, but I'm worried the sharps will pour cash on Carolina and drop this line. I'm still betting 3.

Carolina +3.5 (3 units) -$330

Game 10: Minnesota @ Detroit -4
Everyone seems to have forgotten that the Vikings made the playoffs last year. The public doesn't realize that Christian Ponder is not an awful QB (he's not good, but he's not Blaine Gabbert). I'm just as much of a Lions fan as the next guy, but I'm not buying the hype this year surrounding Reggie Bush and this team. The tremendous line value, combined with the Lions in an unfamiliar spot means I'm going all in.

Minnesota +4 (4 units) -$440

Game 11: Oakland @ Indianapolis -10.5
The Raiders are not a good football team, by any stretch of the imagination. Any team with Terrelle Pryor as their starting quarterback can not be good, and it only gets worse from there. How many players can you name on their starting 22? 8? 9? The Colts, on the other hand, could easily challenge Houston for the AFC South this year. Point is, the Colts are more than 7.5 points better than Oakland.

Indianapolis -10.5 (2 units) -$220

Game 12: Arizona @ Saint Louis -4
Arizona is definitely an improved team over last year, and they might end up winning 6 or 7 games. However, the public is still not realizing how good Saint Louis is. Daryl Richardson is a stud, which many people don't realize. Tavon Austin is also going to be a star downfield for Saint Louis. The fact of the matter is that Saint Louis is 4 or 5 points better than Arizona.

Saint Louis -4 (3 units) -$330

Game 13: Green Bay @ San Francisco -4.5
These teams are, in my opinion, the top 2 NFC candidates to go to the Super Bowl. Green Bay has a solid running back again in Eddie Lacy, and they're still the best team in the NFC North. I'm not sure how to feel about the 49ers. Will Colin Kaepernick be less effective now that teams have had an entire offseason to study film of him? Green Bay is going to be very good, and San Fran is more of a question mark. 1 unit on Green Bay.

Green Bay +4.5 (1 unit) -$110

Game 14: New York Giants @ Dallas -3.5

New York Giants +3.5 (2 units) -$220

Game 15: Philadelphia @ Washington -3.5

Washington -3.5 (1 unit) -$110

Game 16: Houston @ San Diego +4.5

Houston -4.5 (1 unit) -$110

Saturday, August 31, 2013

Premier League Picks: Week 3

Premier League Picks 2013-14: +$73
Premier League Picks Week 3: -$75

Fulham @ Newcastle

Newcastle has looked pretty bad this year, and they're yet to score a goal. Fulham hasn't looked impressive either, but they've looked better and are underdogs.

Fulham +0.25 (2.15) (2 units) -$200

Everton @ Cardiff

This is just an overreaction to Cardiff's fluke win over Man City last Sunday. If they have Baines and Fellaini, Everton is still one of the top teams in the league, and should be a bigger favorite.

Everton -0.25 (2.0) (1.5 units) -$75

Swansea @ West Brom

Swansea may have 0 points, but they've played Man United and Spurs. The Spurs game could've easily been a draw if not for a bad penalty decision, they can beat a West Brom side that looked bad against Everton and worse against Southampton.

Swansea -0 (2.0) (2 units) +$200

Friday, August 30, 2013

Biggest College Football Games of Week 1

This is going to be a weekly feature here this season, giving you a preview of the 5 biggest games of the week. The biggest games of the week are decided by the games with the biggest pot in my power ratings. All rankings are my power rating's. Here we go! (The pot for each game is in parentheses)

#1 Alabama vs. #28 Virginia Tech (51.27)
Alabama should win this one easily, although the Beamer Boys could put up a bit of a fight. Safe to say Virginia Tech will make a big jump in the polls if they win this game, and they'll move up in my power ratings too if they keep this game close.

#4 Georgia @ #22 Clemson (48.61)
This is the game most people are watching this week, but my ratings aren't high on Clemson so it's 2nd on the list. Ultimately, Georgia probably pulls through in a tight game.

#19 LSU @ #13 TCU (45.95)
Most people have LSU as the favorite here, but I've got TCU. The Horned Frogs have a lot of returning players and should get 9 or 10 wins this year, while LSU is in for their worst year in a while.

#40 Mississippi State @ #3 Oklahoma State (43.46)
Oklahoma State is one of my big surprise teams this year which is why this game makes the list. This should be an easy home victory for the Cowboys against the SEC West's perennial bottom feeder.

#43 Rice @ #9 Texas A&M (40.28)
Rice is my surprise non-BCS team of the year, and my computer has them at 11-1, losing only this game. This will not be a cakewalk for Texas A&M like everyone assumes, especially without Manziel for a half.

Honorable mentions:
#38 Boise State @ #17 Washington (39.19)
#11 Mississippi @ #45 Vanderbilt (38.13)
#46 North Carolina @ #12 South Carolina (37.75)

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Premier League Picks: Week 2

Well, my Premier League picks are back for another week! Hopefully it'll be another week in the green.

Premier League Picks 2013-14: +$148
Premier League Picks Week 2: -$29

Crystal Palace @ Stoke City

I'm picking Stoke, and picking against Palace again. Stoke is significantly better than Palace and the handicap should be at -3/4 or even -1. I'm gonna put two units down here.

Stoke City -0.5 (1.83) (2 units) +$166

Norwich City @ Hull City

You guys already know how I feel about Norwich, and Hull looked pretty bad last week against Chelsea. I understand that many people are down on Norwich, but they should not be underdogs here.

Nowich City +0.25 (1.9) (2.5 units) -$250

Livepool @ Aston Villa

Everyone is jumping aboard the Villa train right now but I don't buy it. Sure, Benteke has looked good but it's highly unlikely that Villa keeps this form up all year. I think that Liverpool should win by a goal.

Liverpool -0.75 (2.1) (1 unit) +$55

Friday, August 16, 2013

Premier League Picks: Preseason and Week 1

Every week, I'll be giving my Premier League picks of the week. I'll play a wide variety of bets, but I'll normally stick with the more standard ones. First, I'll do some preseason bets and then I'll give my picks for the upcoming weekend of games.

Premier League Picks 2013-14: +$177
Premier League Picks Week 1: +$177


Chelsea to win the title (3.25) (2 units)

I've Predicted the blues will win the title will win the title and I'm sticking by it here. They have all the pieces they need to edge out the two Manchester clubs.

Sunderland to be relegated (6) (1.5 units)

I'm predicting Sunderland is going to be one of the three teams to go down, so this is a logical choice. They just don't have much Premier League experience.

Fulham to be relegated (7.5) (1 unit)

I also think Fulham is going to have a worse year than many expect and they could take the drop as well as the Black Cats.

Robin van Persie to be the top scorer (4.5) (0.5 units)

I'm willing to dump half a unit on one of the most consistent Premier League strikers to bag the most goals.

Michu to be the top scorer (51) (0.2 units)

Oh, come on, Michu should have better odds than this considering how prolific a scorer he was last year, even with Bony in Swansea now. I'm only dumping $20 on this one because while there is value here, the odds are still very low.

Sunderland AND Fulham to be relegated (67) (0.1 units)

I think it's worth $10 for something that probably has about a 3% chance of happening at these odds.

Crystal Palace AND Sunderland to be relegated (12) (0.5 units)

This is a nice booster to add to the Sunderland relegation bet, as Palace is an odds on favorite to go down.

Everton to finish in the top 8 (1.4) (2 units)

I mentioned in my season preview how Everton is far ahead of the bottom 13 teams, I don't see them slipping out of the top 8.

Norwich to finish in the top half (5.5) (1 unit)

I'm higher on Norwich than many this year, and I think that they have a realistic chance of pulling in the #9 or #10 spot.

Week 1 Bets:

I went a little crazy on the preseason bets so I'm limiting these to only two.

Stoke @ Liverpool

I'm high on both these teams this year, but especially the Potters. They're going to be about the same as last year, and it seems many people are picking them to be relegated. They can stay within 1 goal of Liverpool.

Stoke +1.25 (2.0) (1.5 units) +$75

Tottenham @ Crystal Palace

I know that Crystal Palace will be hungry in their first Premier League game, but Tottenham is still much better than them. I have no idea why Spurs aren't larger favorites.

Tottenham -0.75 (2.02) (2 units) +$102

That's all for now!

Thursday, August 15, 2013

2013-14 Premier League season preview

Well, the next season of the Premier League is just around the corner! In this article I'll be giving my table prediction for the upcoming season, along with assorted commentary. For the table predictions, I'll give detailed commentary for the top half of the table and more sparse commentary for the bottom half.

The Table:

1. Chelsea

Chelsea is the favorite to win this year in my opinion. Although all of the three predicted front runners have new managers, I feel as if Chelsea has the best one as Mourinho has experience at Stamford Bridge. I believe that one of the keys to Chelsea winning the title will be a great season from Romelu Lukaku. He showed what he is capable of last season while on loan to West Brom, and I think that if he plays better than that for a whole season, which is very possible, Chelsea has a great attacking threat. Combine that with Juan Mata and Eden Hazard, and I think Chelsea will win the league.

2. Manchester City

Pelligrini was a great hire, and I believe that he can lead City to multiple titles over the next few years. However, I'm not sure how I feel about their signings. I like Jesus Navas, but I'm not so sure about Stevan Jovetic and Alvaro Negredo. City also needs to pick up a center back before the transfer window closes on the 2nd to play in front of Joe Hart. Manchester City is coming off a turbulent season in which they were never really in title contention, but I think this year they'll finish much closer, just a few points behind Chelsea.

3. Manchester United

I think that Manchester United is in the worst shape out of the so-called "Top Three". In the short term, David Moyes' teams were not the best in important games over at Everton, and the Rooney saga hangs over the team. In the long term, backs Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand are not getting any younger, and van Persie is the only truly cream of the crop striker the Red Devils have. A tough run of opening fixtures could set the pace for the season, and trouble early could mean trouble for Moyes and the team as a whole.

4. Arsenal

Everyone and their mother is picking the Gunners 4th, and I feel the same. This team does not have the talent to match up with the three teams ahead of them, even if they do sign Luis Suarez. I'm not sure how valid the concerns that Spurs will pass them for fourth are though, considering how great Arsenal looked last season from March onwards. I think that the key player to watch for the Gunners this year is Santi Cazorla. The winger is in the prime of his career, and without Suarez, he'll have to lead Arsenal to a Champions League spot or Arsene Wenger's head could be on the chopping block.

5. Tottenham

I very seriously considered putting Liverpool in this spot, but decided against it. I think that the summer-long Gareth Bale saga is going to weigh Spurs down, as we can't be sure whether or not Bale is still going to give a full effort in his disgruntled state.  However, what stopped me from putting the Reds in this spot is the signing of Paulinho. I think that he (along with Wilfried Bony and Ricky van Wolfswinkel) are the top candidates for signing of the summer. Roberto Soldado, from Valencia, is a quality striker who should pair up nicely with Jermain Defoe up front.

6. Liverpool

I think that the Reds' biggest mistake during the summer was not pursuing Henrikh Mkhitaryan (I'll admit I had to look up how to spell that) harder. I think that he is a great player who has a long, successful career with Borussia Dortmund ahead of him. However, as currently assembled, I think Liverpool can still contend for a Champions League place. Luis Suarez is, in my opinion, overrated, and should be sold. Even if he stays for the next few seasons, I still think Liverpool is in good shape with him and Daniel Sturridge leading them to many Champions League berths over the next few seasons.

7. Everton

It surprises me how many prognosticators have dropped Everton out of the top 7. I feel as if the top 7 are much better than the remaining 13 teams, and Everton is still in the top 7 despite losing David Moyes. I think Everton did a great job in keeping Leighton Baines and Marouane Fellaini at Goodison Park, as I really like both of them. However, I do have my concerns about Everton. It seems pretty strange to hire the manager of a relegated team, despite Roberto Martinez's reputation as an escape artist. Regardless, I think Everton finishes comfortably in 7th.

8.  Swansea City

Here is where the free-for-all in the table begins. Like last year, I expect there to be only about 15 points between the 8th placed team and the relegation zone. However, I'm placing the Swans at the top of that free-for-all because they appear to be the most well-assembled side among the bottom 13. Michael Laudrup is a great manager, and has assembled numerous underrated players such as Wilfried Bony, Nathan Dyer, and of course, Michu. I expect the Spaniard who came in on a bargain deal from Rayo Vallecano last summer to net 15 goals again, and possibly 20.

9. Southampton

Southampton? Really? Yes, really. And I can sum up why I have the Saints in the top half of the table in two words: Rickie Lambert. He appears to be peaking late in his career, and I think he is due for the best year of his career. Overall, Southampton are a solid side without him, and I think that they will stay up by a comfortable margin. However, I think that they need to make the most out of an easy first 3 months of fixtures before a much tougher stretch in December.

10. Newcastle United
I think that a bounce back season is in order at St. James' Park. I think that Loic Remy was a very good player to get on loan, as with a more talented supporting cast than he had at QPR I think he can net a number of goals. Newcastle has had their share of off the field turmoil this offseason, but I think that Papiss Cisse, in the center of said turmoil, is due for another good season as well.

11. Aston Villa

Christian Benteke is a piece to build around, and signing him through 2017 was a great move by Paul Lambert. Gabriel Agbonlahor, still on the front end of his career, could also be a force for the Villains and it wouldn't shock me to see them in the top half of the standings as they were a few years ago.

12. Norwich City

I already mentioned that I love the signing of Ricky van Wolfswinkel, and I think he and Robert Snodgrass make for a great attacking pair. Garrido is also a very solid back, and I think that if they get more cash, Norwich can have a side that does not have to worry about relegation for the next five years or so.

13. West Ham

West Ham seems like the most "blah" team in the Premier League to me. Andy Carroll is a nice piece to add full-time, instead of having on loan, and they have a very underrated keeper in Jussi Jaaskelainen.

14. West Brom

I think that the loss of Lukaku back to Chelsea is really going to be a big one for West Brom, as he was a big part in their success last year. However, Shane Long is still around, and I think that Claudio Yacob could have a breakout season in midfield.

15. Stoke City

It seems as if Stoke is a pretty common pick to go down along with one or two recently promoted sides, but I don't see why that's the case. Peter Crouch is a pretty good striker and Stoke was never in that much relegation danger last year.

16. Cardiff City

I think that Cardiff is going to escape relegation and spend a few years in the Premier League. Steven Caulker seems like a poor signing, but Gary Medel is an interesting one who I think could pay off big time for the Bluebirds. Cardiff, unlike Hull and Crystal Palace, has the money to build a Premier League side.

17. Fulham

I was very close to sending Fulham down, as I just don't see what they have going for them. Bryan Ruiz is OK at best, and the team as a whole looked lost at times last year, finishing relatively close to the relegation zone.

18. Sunderland

I think the Black Cats are headed down to the Championship. There seems to be a lot of uncertainty around this team, they have many players with little or no Premier League experience, and I'm not sure how motivated Fletcher and Sessegnon are going to be this year.

19. Hull City

Steve Bruce is not the best of managers, and Hull City really does not seem to have the talent, or the budget, to stay up. The signing of Tom Huddlestone, however, makes me slightly hesitant to put them here.

20. Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace is quite an easy choice to send down. It feels as if they got kind of lucky getting into the Championship playoffs, and then needed a fluky penalty on the edge of the area to beat Watford in the playoff final. Zaha is gone as well.

That's all for now! Premier League picks for week 1 will be up soon.

2013 College Football Preseason Bowl Projections

Well, as I promised in my last post, here are my bowl projections for the upcoming season. One thing to keep in mind if you don't like the walls of text my recent posts have been is that while the posts I make over the summer is mainly data, there's gonna be more text in my fall posts.

For numerous bowl games, I had to choose a team that does not have a tie-in to the bowl, as many conferences (such as the SEC and the Big 10) couldn't fill their tie-in requirements. Strangely enough, I had just the exact right number of bowl-eligible teams to fill up all the bowl slots.

National Championship                     #1 Alabama vs. #2 Texas
Rose                                                #3 Ohio State vs. #10 Oregon State
Fiesta                                               #6 Oklahoma State vs. #12 Northern Illinois
Sugar                                               #7 Georgia vs. #4 Cincinnati
Orange                                            #5 Miami (FL) vs. #9 Nebraska
Chick-Fil-A                                     #14 Florida State vs. LSU
Capital One                                     #11 Wisconsin vs. #8 South Carolina
Outback                                          #19 Michigan State vs. #23 Texas A&M
Gator                                              Michigan vs. Florida
Cotton                                             #13 Mississippi vs. #25 Kansas State
New Mexico                                   San Diego State vs. Arizona State
Famous Idaho                                 Potato Aarkansas State vs. Ball State
New Orleans                                   Louisiana-Monroe vs. Marshall
Las Vegas                                       Boise State vs. Arizona
Beef O' Brady's                               Houston vs. Middle Tennessee
Hawai'i                                            Tulsa vs. San Jose State
Poinsettia                                         Fresno State vs. Wake Forest
Little Caesars Pizza                          Ohio vs. Western Kentucky
Military                                            Maryland vs. North Texas
Kraft Fight Hunger                           BYU vs. Washington
Texas                                               Indiana vs. Duke
Russell Athletic                                 #24 Clemson vs. #16 Louisville
Pinstripe                                           Rutgers vs. Toledo
Belk                                                 Central Florida vs. Virginia Tech
Buffalo Wild Wings                           TCU vs. #20 Northwestern
Music City                                        Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee
Armed Forces                                  North Carolina State vs. UCLA
Alamo                                              #17 Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Holiday                                             Baylor vs. #18 Stanford
Independence                                   North Carolina vs. Western Michigan
Sun                                                   #15 Notre Dame vs. #22 USC
Liberty                                              #21 Rice vs. Missouri
Heart of Dallas                                  Buffalo vs. East Carolina
Compass                                          Connecticut vs. Vanderbilt                                  Louisiana vs. Bowling Green

That's all for now! The next post will be my Premier League season preview.

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

2013 Preseason College Football Projected Records

Well, here are the projected records I promised. One thing to keep in mind while looking at these is that the projected winner of each game is the team with the higher rating (once home/road has been accounted for). This means that, while a team may be projected at 12-0 (e.g. Cincinnati) they may be small favorites in many games, although favored to win every game (Cincy is a very small favorite over Louisvile and Houston, for example). Thus, their most likely finish is probably about 9-3. This is why so many teams have records of 10-2 and better. 


Alabama 12-0 (8-0) SEC Champion
Mississippi 10-2 (7-1)
LSU 8-4 (5-3)
Texas A&M 9-3 (5-3)
Arkansas 5-7 (2-6)
Auburn 5-7 (1-7)
Mississippi State 4-8 (1-7)

Georgia 12-0 (8-0) SEC Championship Game Loser
South Carolina 11-1 (7-1)
Florida 6-6 (4-4)
Missouri 6-6 (3-5)
Tennessee 6-6 (3-5)
Vanderbilt 6-6 (2-6)
Kentucky 3-9 (0-8)

Big 10

Ohio State 11-1 (7-1) Big 10 Champion
Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)
Indiana 8-4 (4-4)
Penn State 8-4 (4-4)
Purdue 2-10 (1-7)
Illinois 2-10 (0-8)

Nebraska 12-0 (8-0) Big 10 Championship Game Loser
Northwestern 10-2 (6-2)
Michigan State 10-2 (6-2)
Michigan 7-5 (3-5)
Minnesota 5-7 (1-7)
Iowa 3-9 (1-7)

Big 12
Texas 12-0 (9-0)
Oklahoma State 11-1 (7-1)
Kansas State 9-3 (6-3)
Oklahoma 8-4 (6-3)
TCU 9-3 (6-3)
Baylor 7-5 (4-5)
West Virginia 5-7 (3-6)
Texas Tech 5-7 (2-7)
Iowa State 3-9 (1-8)
Kansas 2-10 (0-9)


Clemson 10-2 (8-0) ACC Championship Game Loser
Florida State 11-1 (7-1)
Wake Forest 6-6 (3-5)
North Carolina State 7-5 (3-5)
Maryland 6-6 (3-5)
Syracuse 5-7 (3-5)
Boston College 5-7 (2-6)

Miami (FL) 11-1 (7-1) ACC Champion
Georgia Tech 8-4 (6-2)
Virginia Tech 9-3 (6-2)
North Carolina 7-5 (4-4)
Duke 6-6 (2-6)
Pittsburgh 3-9 (1-7)
Virginia 3-9 (1-7)


Oregon State 10-2 (7-2) Pac-12 Champion
Stanford 10-2 (7-2)
Oregon 10-2 (7-2)
Washington 9-3 (6-3)
Washington State 4-8 (2-7)
California 1-11 (0-9)

Arizona State 8-4 (7-2) Pac-12 Championship Game Loser
USC 9-3 (7-2)
Arizona 9-3 (6-3)
UCLA 6-6 (4-5)
Utah 3-9 (1-8)
Colorado 3-9 (1-8)

American Athletic
Cincinnati 12-0 (8-0)
Louisville 11-1 (7-1)
Central Florida 9-3 (7-1)
Rutgers 7-5 (4-4)
Houston 6-6 (4-4)
Connecticut 6-6 (3-5)
Memphis 4-8 (2-6)
USF 4-8 (2-6)
SMU 3-9 (2-6)
Temple 4-8 (1-7)

Mountain West

San Jose State 9-3 (7-1) Mountain West Championship Game Loser
Fresno State 10-2 (6-2)
San Diego State 7-5 (5-3)
Nevada 4-8 (3-5)
Hawaii 4-8 (3-5)
UNLV 4-8 (2-6)

Boise State 8-4 (6-2) Mountain West Champion
Utah State 4-8 (3-5)
Colorado State 5-8 (3-5) 
Air Force 5-7 (3-5) 
Wyoming 5-7 (3-5)
New Mexico 5-7 (3-5) 

Conference USA

East Carolina 8-4 (7-1) Conference USA Championship Game Loser
Middle Tennessee 8-4 (6-2)
Marshall 8-4 (6-2)
Southern Mississippi 4-8 (3-5)
UAB 3-9 (2-6)
Florida Atlantic 3-9 (2-6)
FIU 3-9 (2-6)

Rice 11-1 (8-0) Conference USA Champion
Tulsa 8-4 (6-2)
North Texas 7-5 (5-3)
UTEP 4-8 (3-5)
UTSA 3-9 (3-5)
Louisiana Tech 3-9 (2-6)
Tulane 3-9 (1-7)

Notre Dame 10-2
BYU 9-3
Old Dominion 8-4
Navy 6-6
Army 4-8
New Mexico State 3-9
Idaho 0-12


Northern Illinois 12-0 (8-0) MAC Champion
Western Michigan 7-5 (6-2)
Ball State 8-4 (6-2)
Toledo 7-5 (5-3)
Central Michigan 3-9 (2-6)
Eastern Michigan 1-11 (0-8)

Bowling Green 10-2 (8-0) MAC Championship Game Loser
Ohio 9-3 (6-2)
Buffalo 6-6 (4-4)
Kent State 4-8 (3-5)
Miami (OH) 3-9 (3-5)
Massachusetts 2-10 (1-7)
Akron 1-11 (0-8)

Sun Belt
Louisiana 10-2 (7-0)
Louisiana Monroe 8-4 (6-1)
Western Kentucky 7-5 (5-2)
Arkansas State 6-6 (4-3)
Troy 5-7 (3-4)
Texas State 5-7 (2-5)
South Alabama 3-9 (1-6)
Georgia State 3-9 (0-7)

Well, that's all for now. My next post is going to be my projected bowl games for the season, using the records in this post.