Posts

Showing posts from 2017

Bracketology 12/29/17

A number of changes throughout the bracket in this update. First is the Pac-12, as Arizona State is now on the 1 line, although I don't expect them to stay there. UCLA moves into the field, giving the Pac-12 a 3rd team in, although USC and Utah are close. Both mid-majors and the Big Ten are having a weak year as well, and the conference that's capitalizing on these extra bids the most is the SEC. They have 8 teams in, including 6 on the top 7 lines. Expect the next update shortly after New Year's.

1: Villanova, Duke, MichiganState, Arizona State
2: Texas A&M, West Virginia, Virginia, Kansas
3: Purdue, North Carolina, TCU, Xavier
4: Oklahoma, Wichita State, Seton Hall, Tennessee
5: Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami (FL), Arkansas
6: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Auburn, SMU
7: Gonzaga, Missouri, Florida State, Creighton
8: Michigan, RhodeIsland, Clemson, Texas
9: St. John's, Alabama, Baylor, Notre Dame
10: Florida, Butler, Boise State, Nevada
11: Virginia Tech, Louisville, (USC/Min…

Bracketology 12/20/17

Traditionally I put out my first bracket of the season on New Year's Eve, but I decided to do it a little earlier this year because I've been able to watch more college hoops than normal so far this season. At this point in the season, a lot of this is guesswork- the RPI is still pretty erratic, so I'm putting more weight into things like Kenpom and Sagarin than I do later in the season.

I've spent a lot of the time in the last month working with a few classmates on a bracketology model. We're just gathering our final results now- my plan is to make a post on here some time in January about the model.

1: Villanova, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina
2: Arizona State, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Virginia
3: Purdue, Kansas, TCU, Wichita State
4: Oklahoma, Xavier, Kentucky, Miami (FL)
5: Cincinnati, Arizona, Tennessee, Gonzaga
6: Missouri, Seton Hall, Arkansas, Texas Tech
7: Creighton, St. John's, Texas Tech, Auburn
8: Alabama, Florida State, SMU, Michigan
9: Rhode I…

2016 College Football Power Ratings In Review

Bracketology 3/12/17 Evening

Image
This is my final bracketology for 2017. I moved some teams around today- Michigan moved up to a 6 with their win over Wisconsin, among others. I am pretty confident with the at-large selections I've made, but the committee could throw a total curveball like they did last year with Tulsa.



1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke
2: Kentucky, Gonzaga, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Baylor, Oregon, Florida
4: UCLA, Butler, Notre Dame, West Virginia
5: Virginia, Purdue, Iowa State, SMU
6: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan
7: Creighton, St. Mary's, Maryland, Arkansas
8: Dayton, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, VCU
9: Wichita State, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Oklahoma State
10: Seton Hall, Michigan State, Northwestern, Xavier
11: Marquette, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Providence, Kansas State, USC
12: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont
13: Princeton, East Tennessee State, New Mexico State, Bucknell
14: Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Northern Kentucky
15: Texas Sout…

Bracketology 3/12/17 Morning

This is only my morning update- I'll have another final update after all of the championship games are done today.

I ran my model this morning and it produced some interesting results, such as Duke on the 1-line. Also, Rhode Island is in for Illinois State. I might swap in Syracuse for Rhode Island if the Rams lose to VCU today.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke
2: Kentucky, Gonzaga, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Oregon, Baylor, UCLA
4: Florida, Butler, Notre Dame, West Virginia
5: Virginia, Purdue, Iowa State, Cincinnati
6: Minnesota, SMU, Wisconsin, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Michigan, Maryland, Dayton
8: Arkansas, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Wichita State
9: South Carolina, VCU, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma State
10: Seton Hall, Xavier, Michigan State, Northwestern
11: Marquette,Wake Forest, (Providence/USC), (Kansas State/Rhode Island)
12: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont
13: Princeton, East Tennessee State, New Mexico State, Bucknell
14: Winthrop, F…

Bracketology 3/11/17

Image
Fringe bubble teams dropped like flies today as Georgia, Indiana, TCU, California and Houston all lost must-win games and I think all five are totally out of consideration for an at-large. In my mind, the bubble is really down to just 6 teams- Kansas State, Middle Tennessee, USC, Illinois State, Rhode Island and Syracuse. Right now, there's 4 spots for those 6 teams but that could shrink in the case of bid stealers, and there's plenty of potential bid thieves still alive.

I'm pretty shaky on some areas of my seed list- the 3 and 4 lines are one area, as are the 9 and 10 lines. I'm going to run my model tomorrow afternoon to help sort that out.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Oregon, Louisville, Florida State
3: Duke, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA
4: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Virginia, Florida
5: Purdue, Butler, Cincinnati, Iowa State
6: Creighton, Minnesota, SMU, St. Mary's
7: Wisconsin, Michigan, Miami (FL), Maryland
8: Arkansas, Virginia Tec…

Bracketology 3/10/17

I'm moving Iowa out of the field after their loss to Indiana, and I considered denoting them as a long shot as well. Teams with RPIs in the high 70s don't get simply don't get bids, and Iowa doesn't have the wins Syracuse does to counteract the unwieldy RPI. USC also hurt themselves today- I think they're probably still in but my guess is they'll be in a First Four game.

Today's bubble winners include Michigan State and Northwestern, who took care of business in the Big Ten Tournament and earned locks for it, as well as California and Indiana who got necessary wins. However, both teams still need at least one more win to have a serious shot.

However, the biggest bubble winners of the day were in the Big 12 where Kansas State vaulted into the field with a win over Baylor, and TCU dealt a blow to Kansas' #1 overall seed hopes as well. I think Kansas State is probably in even if they lose to West Virginia, although it's not a sure thing. TCU definitely …

Bracketology 3/9/17

I'm making a decision that I think most bracketologists will disagree with by dropping Syracuse out of the field. Their RPI is 84 and the worst RPI to get an at-large bid is 68. If other bubble teams lose, there's enough other good stuff on their resume that they still have a shot, but I think it's dependent on other bubble teams losing.

I think Wake Forest is in, and I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't make it. Power conference teams with top-40 RPIs don't miss the tournament and their win over Louisville is as good as any other bubble team win.

Lots more bubble teams in action today. Illinois and Kansas State, among others, face must wins.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida State
3: Oregon, UCLA, Florida, Butler
4: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota
6: SMU, Maryland, Iowa State, St. Mary's
7: Dayton,Creighton,Miami (FL), Wisconsin
8: Virginia Tech, Sout…

Bracketology 3/8/17

Most bubble teams begin their conference tournaments today, so the bubble will be more interesting today after a few nights of stagnation. Clemson, USC, Xavier and Ohio State face must wins.

Not much changed as a result of yesterday's games- Gonzaga moved up the 2-line and St. Mary's moved down the 6-line.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida State
3: Oregon, UCLA, Florida, Butler
4: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota
6: SMU, Maryland, Iowa State, St. Mary's
7: Dayton,Creighton,Wisconsin, South Carolina
8: Miami (FL), Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Wichita State
9: Oklahoma State, Michigan, VCU, Marquette
10: Michigan State, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Wake Forest
11: Providence, Xavier, (USC/Vanderbilt), (Syracuse/Illinois State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14: Akron, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Ca…

Bracketology 3/7/17

I re-ran my model last night and it flipped Illinois State and Kansas State. However, from Providence to Clemson the margins are razor-thin, I can see any team in red getting a bid or getting left out. Speaking of the teams in red, I've introduced a color coding system- black means a team is either a lock or an auto-bid only, orange means a team should be in, red means a team is on the bubble and pink means a team is a long shot. The only bubble action today is in the ACC where Clemson and Wake Forest both face must-wins.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky
2: Baylor, Louisville, Florida State, Gonzaga
3: Oregon, UCLA, Florida, Butler
4: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota
6: SMU, St. Mary's, Maryland, Iowa State
7: Dayton,Creighton,Wisconsin, South Carolina
8: Miami (FL), Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Wichita State
9: Oklahoma State, Michigan, VCU, Marquette
10: Michigan State, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Wake Forest
11: Provi…

Bracketology 3/6/17

The biggest bubble action on Sunday was Wichita State locking up a bid with their win over Illinois State. I have the Redbirds outside the field for now, but I'm going to be continuously running my model this week and as other bubble teams win or lose I could see Illinois State still getting in.

There's no bubble teams in action on Monday (although I guess UNC Wilmington has a very small chance at getting a bid if they lose to Charleston). Most of the intrigue lies between the 13 and 16 lines.

Starting tomorrow I will begin awarding locks and should-be-in status as well.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, Kentucky
3: UCLA, Duke, Butler, Florida State
4: Florida, Arizona, Purdue, Virginia
5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, SMU
6: St. Mary's, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maryland
7: Creighton, Dayton,Iowa State, Miami (FL)
8: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Wichita State
9: South Carolina, Arkansas, Marquette, Northwestern

Bracketology 3/5/17

The last Saturday of the regular season didn't disappoint, as lots of teams played themselves off the bubble. I removed 4 teams from consideration after losses, while others (Providence, Wake Forest, Marquette) made huge strides towards bids with wins. Starting tomorrow, I'll categorize teams into locks, should-be-ins and bubble teams.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, Kentucky
3: UCLA, Duke, Butler, Florida State  
4: Florida, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
5: West Virginia, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
6: SMU, St. Mary's, Maryland, Creighton
7: Dayton, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Miami (FL)
8: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Northwestern    
9: South Carolina, Arkansas, Wichita State, Marquette 
10: Xavier, Providence, Wake Forest, Michigan 
11: VCU, Michigan State, (Vanderbilt/Syracuse), Middle Tennessee
12: (USC/Illinois State), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Monmouth
13: Vermont, Princeton, UT-Arlington, East Tennessee State
14: Bucknell…

Bracketology 3/4/17

Friday was probably the least important bubble day we'll see for the rest of the season. Wichita State and Illinois State both got important wins, although not without issue for the Redbirds. Saturday promises to be busier.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, Kentucky
3: Butler, Duke, Florida, UCLA  
4: Arizona, Florida State, Virginia, Purdue
5: West Virginia, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Cincinnati  
6: Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's, Dayton
7:Maryland, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, South Carolina  
8: Miami (FL), Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Northwestern  
9: Arkansas, Wichita State, Xavier, Michigan  
10: Providence, Seton Hall, Michigan State, Marquette  
11: VCU, USC, (Wake Forest/Illinois), Middle Tennessee
12: (Syracuse/Rhode Island), UNC Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State
14: Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso, Winthrop
15: Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota, UC Irvine
16: North Dakota, Nort…

Bracketology 3/3/17

Last night was relatively quiet on the bubble, with the biggest game being Iowa's win @Wisconsin. I've moved Iowa into the First Four out for now, but I'm still pretty pessimistic about their chances of getting a bid. Their last regular season game (Penn State) doesn't really provide much opportunity for a big win and they're likely to play Illinois and then Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament. I think they probably have to beat Purdue to get in, although wins over Penn State and Illinois may be enough.

Conference tournaments start for bubble teams today as both Illinois State and Wichita State are in action in Arch Madness.  

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, Kentucky
3: Butler, Duke, Florida, UCLA
4: Arizona, Florida State, Virginia, Purdue
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Cincinnati
6: Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's, Dayton
7: Iowa State, Maryland, Virginia Tech, South Carolina
8: Miami (FL), Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Nort…

Bracketology 3/2/17

It was a very interesting night on the bubble as a lot of teams on the 9 and 10 lines lost (Michigan State, Xavier, Michigan, VCU) and lots of teams closer to the cut line won (Wake Forest, Illinois, Marquette). As a result, I had a lot of trouble seeding the 9-11 lines and I might change them up a little bit over the next few days. Regardless, Illinois is in my field for the first time since January 23rd after their win over Michigan State, and Wake Forest is in for now as well after a win over Louisville. The loss knocked the Cardinals down to the 2-line, and I picked Gonzaga to replace them although I seriously considered Baylor and Oregon as well.

Tonight on the bubble, Cal looks for an important road win @Utah, Houston faces a must-win @Cincinnati, and Middle Tennessee looks to cruise against FIU.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, Kentucky
3: Butler, Duke, Florida, Arizona
4: Florida State, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, Wes…

Bracketology 3/1/17

The biggest news of the night was Vanderbilt's total collapse at Kentucky- they could've put themselves in a very comfortable position with a win but now they're right on the cut line. They'll fall out if Illinois beats Michigan State tomorrow.

Aside from the aforementioned Illinois/Michigan State game, tomorrow's big bubble games include a huge opportunity for Wake Forest at home against Louisville, a Michigan/Northwestern matchup where the winner is probably a lock and a Kansas State/TCU game that might be an elimination game.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Oregon, Kentucky
3: Butler, Duke, Florida, Arizona
4: Florida State, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Cincinnati
6: Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's, Wisconsin
7: Iowa State, Maryland, Dayton, Virginia Tech
8: South Carolina, Xavier, Miami (FL), Oklahoma State
9: Arkansas, Michigan State, VCU, Michigan
10: Wichita State, Northwestern, Providen…

Bracketology 2/28/17

I re-ran my model this afternoon, and it produced some interesting results. First, Gonzaga is now off my 1-line and Louisville is in their place. However, Louisville, Butler and the 4 2-seeds are all incredibly close to each other, and I think that any team on the 1 or 2 lines could end up with a 1 seed.

The other notable result was that Rhode Island shot up into my field, as my model is impressed with their RPI (44) and the fact that they have two RPI top 25 wins (Cincinnati and VCU).

Tomorrow's bubble action includes must wins for Georgetown (@ Seton Hall) and Indiana (@ Purdue) as both teams search for quality wins to move into the field. Elsewhere, Vanderbilt has a chance for the ultimate SEC marquee win at Rupp Arena and Providence will be attempting to avoid the ultimate Big East bad loss at home against DePaul.

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville
2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Oregon, Kentucky
3: Butler, Florida State, Florida, Arizona
4: Duke, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue
5: …

Bracketology 2/27/17

Sunday was much quieter than Saturday, with the most notable results being Michigan State's win over Wisconsin that probably guarantees their safety, and Cincinnati's loss to UCF which probably kills their chances of a protected seed. Illinois also got an important win against Nebraska and USC dropped their 4th straight against Arizona State.

Monday's action will be entertaining, as Baylor must beat West Virginia to retain any hope of a 1 seed and North Carolina's grip on one will slip if they fall in Charlottesville. However, there's nothing going on on the bubble tomorrow.

1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Baylor, Louisville, Arizona
3: UCLA, Florida State, Butler, Kentucky
4: West Virginia, Florida, Purdue, Notre Dame
5: Minnesota, Duke, SMU, Virginia
6: Oklahoma State, St. Mary's, Cincinnati, Iowa State
7: Creighton, Wisconsin, Miami (FL), Dayton
8: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State
9: South Carolina, Arkansas, Seton …

Bracketology 2/26/17

Although I was expecting the biggest result of the day to come in the ACC, Gonzaga's first loss of the season at home to BYU was the big news of Saturday. I have Gonzaga on the 1 line for now but I may change that this week- the Zags have an RPI of 10 and no team with a double digit RPI has gotten a 1 seed since the tournament expanded to 68.

A quick roundup of the day's bubble winners:

Providence got a big comeback win against Marquette and is in the field if they win their last two regular season games (vs. DePaul and @ St. John's).

Miami (FL) is a lock after their win over Duke.

Iowa State is a lock after their win over Baylor.

Wichita State and Illinois State both cruised. I think it's highly unlikely the Shockers miss the field, and I think the Redbirds are in if they make it to the Arch Madness finals.


And the losers:

Clemson took another brutal one-possession loss and needs to win their last two regular season games and then make a serious run in the ACC tournam…

Bracketology 2/24/17

The biggest bubble result of the night was Georgia's win in Tuscaloosa, which bumped the Crimson Tide out of at-large consideration and put the Bulldogs within striking distance of the field. If Georgia wins their last 3 regular season games and makes the SEC semis I think they have a good shot at a bid. Ohio State also got a big win against Wisconsin to keep their faint hopes alive




Dayton is the only bubble team in action tomorrow night, although the Flyers are going to make the field barring a total collapse. However, a trip to Davidson is the kind of game that's a nightmare for a bubble team, as it's legitimately tough but a win is not going to gain much favor in the eyes of the committee.

1: Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Oregon, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Florida, Butler, Kentucky
4: Purdue, UCLA, Duke, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Notre Dame, SMU
6: Virginia, Maryland, Wisconsin, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Oklahoma State…

Bracketology 2/23/17

Last night was a huge one on the bubble- Providence jumps into the bracket for the first time in more than a month with a huge win @Creighton.  Other big bubble winners include Vanderbilt, who despite their hefty loss count is now in the First Four Out, and Syracuse who has climbed out of the first four. California lete a huge chance slip away as they blew a near-20 point lead against Oregon, and Tennessee moves out after a damaging home loss to Vanderbilt. A lighter slate tonight- from a bubble perspective I'll be keeping my eye on Nebraska/Michigan State.

1: Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Oregon, Arizona, Louisville
3: Florida State, Florida, Butler, Kentucky
4: Purdue, UCLA, Duke, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Notre Dame
6: SMU, Virginia, Maryland, Creighton
7: St. Mary's, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Virginia Tech
8: Iowa State, Miami (FL), South Carolina, Xavier
9: USC, Arkansas, VCU, Michigan
10: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Syracuse…

Bracketology 2/22/17

Clemson is joining Texas Tech in the club of bubble teams that sure look like tournament teams but just can't catch a break. After their loss at Virginia Tech last night, Clemson probably need to go 3-0 down the stretch to have a chance at the tournament.

Last night was pretty uneventful for the bubble, but tonight promises to be different as Kansas State, Syracuse, California  and Seton Hall all have huge opportunities at home against teams safely in the field. Vanderbilt/Tennessee and Pittsburgh/Wake Forest have big implications as well.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga,North Carolina
2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: Florida State, Duke, Florida, Kentucky
4: Purdue, UCLA, Butler, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Maryland, Notre Dame
6: Creighton, SMU, Virginia, St. Mary's
7: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Xavier
8: Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Miami (FL), South Carolina
9: USC, Michigan State, Arkansas, VCU
10: Michigan, Northwestern, Kansas State, Wichita St…

Bracketology 2/21/17

The biggest result of the night was Virginia dropping their 4th straight game, this time at home to Miami. This moves the Hurricanes up to the 8-line, and they're looking quite solid for a bid now barring a complete collapse down the stretch. And yes, Virginia is in even if they lose every game left on their schedule. Texas Tech's last 4 losses have either come in OT, double OT, or been by a single point in regulation. They'll probably have to beat Kansas in the Big 12 tourney quarterfinals to have a chance now.

Tuesday night's slate is relatively light, Clemson @ Virginia Tech is the most intriguing bubble game. In the Big Ten, Indiana faces a must-win @ Iowa, and Northwestern has a deceptively tricky game @ Illinois.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga,North Carolina
2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: Florida State, Duke, Kentucky, Florida
4: Purdue, UCLA, Butler, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Maryland, Notre Dame
6: Creighton, SMU, Virginia, St. Mary'…

Bracketology 2/20/17

Georgia Tech got a huge win over Syracuse, and they move up to the First Four Out. However, the biggest surprise of the night was Oregon State getting their first conference win, knocking Utah out of the bubble picture for good.

Iowa State @ Texas Tech is the most intriguing game on Monday's slate- Texas Tech is just outside my Next Four Out despite their 5-9 conference record. Virginia will be looking to stop their slide against Miami as well.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga,North Carolina
2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: Florida State, Duke, Kentucky, Florida
4: Purdue, UCLA, Butler, West Virginia
5: Cincinnati, Virginia, Wisconsin, Maryland
6: Notre Dame, Creighton, SMU, St. Mary's
7: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Xavier
8: Virginia Tech, USC, Iowa State, South Carolina
9: Northwestern, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Arkansas
10: VCU, Michigan, Kansas State, Wichita State
11: Seton Hall, California, (Tennessee/Marquette), (Illinois State/Syracuse) 
12: Middle Tenn…

Bracketology 2/19/17

Lots of action happened near the bubble on Saturday, although there weren't any terribly surprising results. Miami's win over Clemson moved the Hurricanes up towards relative safety and Clemson falling further form the field. Wake Forest came close to getting a resume-defining win @Duke, Vanderbilt may have gotten one themselves against South Carolina. Despite their 13 losses, Vanderbilt has a feasible path to the tournament if they can finish the regular season 3-1.

It seems like there's a big bubble matchup every night in the ACC, and Sunday will be no different as Syracuse takes on Georgia Tech. Georgetown also has a chance to climb into the bracket against Creighton.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga,North Carolina
2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: Florida State, Duke, Kentucky, Florida
4: Purdue, UCLA, Butler, Maryland
5: Cincinnati, West Virginia, Virginia, Notre Dame
6: SMU, Creighton, St. Mary's, Wisconsin
7: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Xavier
8: Vir…

Bracketology 2/17/17

The main result in Thursday's action was Michigan's win over Wisconsin- the Wolverines have improved their stock significantly since their home loss to Ohio State and are now away from the main bubble circus. Wisconsin has tumbled from the AP top 10 to a 7 seed, and has surrendered sole possession of first place in the Big Ten for the first time in weeks.

VCU and California are the only teams of note playing tonight, although both have the high-risk low-reward situation of playing competent teams (Richmond and Stanford, respectively) on the road.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Oregon
3: Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Florida
4: Butler, Purdue, UCLA, Virginia
5: Maryland, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Creighton
6: Notre Dame, SMU, Minnesota, St. Mary's
7: Xavier, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech
8: South Carolina, USC, Dayton, Northwestern
9: Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa State, VCU
10: Arkansas, Miami (FL), Wichita State

Bracketology 2/16/17

A busy day on the bubble, with lots of movement in both directions. Arkansas got a huge win at South Carolina, which more or less cancels out their loss against Missouri a few days ago. It was a good day for Big East bubble teams, as both Seton Hall and Providence capitalized on the winnable opportunities I mentioned yesterday. Seton Hall catapulted into the field as a result, and Providence moved up to the First Four Out. By far the biggest loser of the night was Rhode Island, whose chances for an at-large probably depend on making the A-10 title game after a horrible home loss to RPI 190 Fordham. Putting up only 43 points at home to a team in the bottom half of D1 is not how you play your way into the field.

Wisconsin @ Michigan is the main attraction of Thursday's slate- the Wolverines could give themselves a huge bump with a win. A loss for the Badgers would cause them to lose sole possession of first place in the Big Ten, and send them tumbling towards an 8/9 game. The other b…

Bracketology 2/15/17

The most important game of the night was in the ACC, where Clemson picked up their 4th ACC win over Wake Forest. Clemson will be an interesting team down the stretch- I think there's a legitimate chance they'll be the first team with a 7-11 conference record to make the tourney (since the field expanded to 68, which is as far back as my data goes), should they go 3-2 to close out ACC play. No team with a 7-11 conference record has even been in serious at-large consideration. For reference, here's the teams that made the field with a losing conference record:

2015 Oklahoma State (9 seed, #1 rated conference in Kenpom)
2015 Texas (11 seed, #1 conference)
2014 Oklahoma State (9 seed, #1 conference)
2013 Illinois (7 seed, #1 conference)
2013 Minnesota (11 seed, #1 conference)
2012 Connecticut (9 seed, #3 conference)

There's enough precedent of 8-10 teams who were reasonably safe (teams that end up with 9 seeds or better are generally not in any real danger of missing the tournam…

Bracketology 2/14/17

I did my resume re-evaluation that I do every two weeks this afternoon, so there's a lot of movement throughout the bracket. This shuffling moved Illinois State into the bracket, which gives the Missouri Valley 2 bids for the first time all year in my bracket. My hunch is that if both Illinois State and Wichita State win out until the final of Arch Madness, both will make the field regardless of the result of that game. The eye test certainly leads me to think both of them belong in the field, especially considering Wichita State's top-20 Kenpom mark.

Elsewhere in the action of the night, we got to witness 2 overtime thrillers as neither Syracuse nor West Virginia were able to pull off an upset. Kansas was as impressive as any team I've seen this year in their comeback against the Mountaineers. West Virginia, despite the love advanced metrics have for them, fall out of the protected seeds- the worst RPI to get a protected seed since the tournament expanded to 68 was 2015 Ge…

Bracketology 2/13/17

The two teams the committee were getting the most heat for leaving out of their top 16, Cincinnati and Wisconsin, both lost today. Wisconsin's loss to Northwestern in Madison was huge for the Wildcats, as their bid was looking a bit in jeopardy after the loss to Illinois earlier in the week. Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Michigan is in my field for the first time in a few weeks as they knocked off Indiana at Assembly Hall. I've got an interesting quirk in my bracket today- my first four teams out are all from the Big East!

1: Villanova, Kansas,Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3:Florida, Florida State, Kentucky, West Virginia
4: Virginia, UCLA, Duke, Purdue
5: SMU, Notre Dame, Butler, Cincinnati
6: Creighton, Xavier, Wisconsin, Maryland
7: St. Mary's, Minnesota, Northwestern, South Carolina
8: VCU, USC, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State
9: Dayton, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU
10: Michigan State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Wichita State
11: California, Miam…

Bracketology 2/12/17

Nothing about the committee's top 4 seed lines was a total shock, I incorrectly had Cincinnati and Purdue in my top 4 seeds while they had Duke and West Virginia. Already, there's been some movement up there as Florida State and Butler both lost. On the bubble, Marquette and Seton Hall took losses, and every team in the Big East besides DePaul and St. John's is in my field or is one of my first 3 teams out. Needless to say, the Big East tournament will be interesting.

Today features the game of the year in the American, as Cincinnati takes on SMU in Dallas. Michigan can climb into the field with a win at Indiana today, a loss for the Hoosiers would put them at 5-8 in the Big Ten and potentially in a position where they'd need to sweep the rest of their regular season schedule.

1: Villanova, Kansas,Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3:Virginia, Florida, Florida State, Kentucky
4: West Virginia, UCLA, Duke, Cincinnati
5: Purdue, Notre Dame, Bu…

Bracketology 2/10/17

Most of the day's action occurred near the 4/5 lines, as UCLA beat Oregon to move into a protected seed and Duke almost moved up to the 4-line themselves with their win over North Carolina. Indiana fell further from the field, and probably needs to go 4-2 in their last 6 to have a chance. Dayton @ Rhode Island is the main attraction tonight- I'll move the Rams into the field if they win.

1: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor
2: Louisville, Virginia, Arizona, Florida State
3:North Carolina,Butler, Kentucky, Cincinnati
4: Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Florida
5: Wisconsin, Duke, Creighton,West Virginia
6: Xavier, St. Mary's, SMU, Notre Dame
7: Minnesota, USC, South Carolina, Maryland
8: VCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
9: TCU, Dayton, Northwestern, Virginia Tech
10: Clemson, California, Michigan State, Miami (FL)
11: Syracuse, (Seton Hall/Georgia Tech), Wichita State, (Marquette/Wake Forest)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, Belmont
13:Princeton, Nevada, N…

Bracketology 2/9/17

Few changes in today's bracket, Miami's win over Virginia Tech is the only result that jumped off the page to me, and that just brings those two teams slightly closer together.

1: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor
2: Louisville, Virginia, Arizona, North Carolina
3:Florida State, Oregon, Butler, Kentucky
4: Cincinnati, Florida, Purdue, Wisconsin
5: Creighton,Xavier, Duke, UCLA
6: St. Mary's, West Virginia, Notre Dame, SMU
7: Minnesota, USC, South Carolina, Maryland
8: VCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
9: TCU, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Clemson
10: California, Northwestern, Michigan State, Miami (FL)
11: Syracuse, (Seton Hall/Georgia Tech), Wichita State, (Marquette/Wake Forest)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, Belmont
13:Princeton, Nevada, New Mexico State, Bucknell
14: Valparaiso, Monmouth, Arkansas State, Furman
15: UNC Asheville, Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central
16: Weber State, North Dakota State, (UC Irvine/New Orleans), (Texas S…

Bracketology 2/8/17

Syracuse is in my bracket for the first time all year, thanks to their 5th win in a row. They move in at the expense of Arkansas, who is out for the first time all year due to their 3rd loss in 4 games. The SEC is a 3-bid league for now, but half of the first 8 out are from the SEC. Maryland, South Carolina and Northwestern all tumble with bad losses. Baylor/Oklahoma State highlights tomorrow's slate, although Virginia Tech/Miami, Providence/Seton Hall and Mississippi/Tennessee might be more important for the bubble picture.

1: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor
2: Louisville, Virginia, Arizona, Florida State
3:North Carolina, Oregon, Butler, Kentucky
4: Cincinnati, Florida, Purdue, Wisconsin
5: Creighton,Xavier, Duke, UCLA
6: St. Mary's, West Virginia, Notre Dame, SMU
7: USC, Minnesota, South Carolina, Maryland
8: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, VCU, Virginia Tech
9: Iowa State, TCU, Dayton, Clemson
10: Northwestern, California, Michigan State, Syracuse
11: Wichita State, Seto…