Bracketology 2/26/17

Although I was expecting the biggest result of the day to come in the ACC, Gonzaga's first loss of the season at home to BYU was the big news of Saturday. I have Gonzaga on the 1 line for now but I may change that this week- the Zags have an RPI of 10 and no team with a double digit RPI has gotten a 1 seed since the tournament expanded to 68.

A quick roundup of the day's bubble winners:

Providence got a big comeback win against Marquette and is in the field if they win their last two regular season games (vs. DePaul and @ St. John's).

Miami (FL) is a lock after their win over Duke.

Iowa State is a lock after their win over Baylor.

Wichita State and Illinois State both cruised. I think it's highly unlikely the Shockers miss the field, and I think the Redbirds are in if they make it to the Arch Madness finals.


And the losers:

Clemson took another brutal one-possession loss and needs to win their last two regular season games and then make a serious run in the ACC tournament to have a shot.

VCU is not totally safe after their loss to Rhode Island. If they beat George Mason and make A-10 semis their fine, but fail to do either and it could get a bit dicey.

Kansas State lost by 30 points on the road to a deceptively good Oklahoma team, but it's still not a good look. A split of their next two and a loss in the Big 12 quarters will probably not be enough to get them in.

If Georgetown's at-large hopes weren't totally dead after they lost to DePaul, they certainly are after today's loss to St. John's.

Marquette will be on the nose of the bubble for the next two weeks. Winning their last two regular season games would probably put them in, though.

Northwestern is quickly hurtling towards bubble danger. 1 more win in the regular season or conference tournament should be enough, but if they lose out I don't think they'll get a bid.

Tennessee got whacked by South Carolina and absolutely has to finish the regular season 2-0.

1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Baylor, Arizona, Louisville
3: UCLA, Florida State, Kentucky, Butler
4: West Virginia, Florida, Purdue, Cincinnati
5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, Duke, SMU
6: Virginia, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, St. Mary's
7: Iowa State, Creighton, Miami (FL), Dayton
8: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Michigan, South Carolina
9: Arkansas, Xavier, USC, Michigan State
10: Seton Hall, VCU, Providence, Wichita State
11: Northwestern, Syracuse, Middle Tennessee, (Illinois State/California)
12: UNC Wilmington, (Vanderbilt/Wake Forest), Nevada, UT-Arlington
13: Monmouth, Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State
14: Belmont, Bucknell, Akron, Valparaiso
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota
16: North Carolina Central, UC Irvine, (North Dakota/New Orleans), (Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern)

First Four Out: Kansas State, Marquette, Illinois, TCU
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Georgia, Indiana, Georgia Tech
Also Considered: Rhode Island, Mississippi, Ohio State, Clemson, Texas Tech, Houston, Pittsburgh

Moving In: Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, South Dakota
Moving Out: Marquette, Kansas State, North Dakota State
Removed From Consideration: Georgetown

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7   
Big East: 6
Big 12: 5
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2 
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

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