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Showing posts from January, 2019

Bracketology 1/31/19

There's changes throughout the seed list as I gave every resume a fresh look this morning. At the top, Michigan replaced Michigan State as the last 1 seed, and Louisville and Purdue moved up firmly into protected seed territory. Oklahoma fell considerably, hampered by their drubbing by Baylor, while the Bears got the opposite treatment and rocketed up to the 9 line.

It was really hard to fill the First Four. I know I like to complain every year about how weak the bubble is but this bubble feels particularly weak- Indiana has dropped 7 straight and is still in the field, Arizona State is in despite  some pathetic performances recently, and the SoCon has two teams in as UNC Greensboro has an at-large.

I would like to briefly spotlight the mid-majors who have decent at-large chances. Aside from the well documented cases of Gonzaga, Nevada and Buffalo, there's a few more teams from the south in the mix. Looking at resumes this morning, I saw very little distinction between Washing…

Bracketology 1/28/19

This weekend featured chaos at the bubble, as tons of teams near the cut line lost. Some of the losses were particularly ugly- St. John's at home to Georgetown, Texas at Georgia, Saint Louis to Davidson and Fresno State at Colorado State. This has led to some pretty big gains for the bubble teams that won this weekend- notable winners include Baylor, Utah State and UNC Greensboro. The Spartans are now in the First Four Out as the potential for a 2-bid SoCon grows. Wofford is also on the rise, and is gaining some distance between themselves and the bubble fray.

At the top, I debated between Michigan and Michigan State for the last 1 seed but elected to keep the Spartans there thanks to their large collection of quality wins. Kentucky moves up to the 2 line for the first time all year, and nearly bumped Kansas down to the 3 line but I elected to keep the Jayhawks just a hair ahead of North Carolina.

The game I'm most looking forward to this week is in the Atlantic Sun, where Lip…

Bracketology 1/26/19

Not that much has changed in the past two days- some of the biggest results were out on the west coast where Washington has opened up a 2 game lead in the Pac-12 and is beginning to move away from the bubble. The Arizona schools are much closer to the bubble though- Arizona got blown out at USC but Arizona State picked up a road win at UCLA. This should be an action-packed weekend of college hoops, so there will be a lot more changes on Monday.

1: Duke, Michigan State, Tennessee, Virginia
2: Michigan, Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina
3: Marquette, Kentucky, Houston, Nevada
4: Villanova, Maryland, Texas Tech, Louisville
5: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Iowa, LSU
6: Buffalo, Kansas State, Purdue, Iowa State
7: Florida State, Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Nebraska
8: Syracuse, Mississippi, Cincinnati, Auburn
9: Washington, North Carolina State, Texas, TCU
10: UCF, St. John's, Ohio State, Alabama
11: Indiana, Minnesota, Wofford, (San Francisco/Arizona)
12: (Seton Hall/Arizona State), VCU, …

Bracketology 1/24/19

As we get further into conference play, the contenders for the protected seeds are getting clearer. Some traditional powers who got off to shaky starts are on a roll and have moved into the protected category- namely Kentucky and Villanova. Kentucky will move up to the 2 line if they beat Kansas on Saturday, and have the opportunity for some really needle-moving wins against Tennessee coming up as well. It'll be a bit tougher for Villanova to continue to climb up the seed list given that they only have 4 NET group 1 games left, but them and Marquette will battle it out for the Big East title.

On the other hand, some teams are falling after hot starts. Chief among them is Auburn- The Tigers boast an impressive Kenpom ranking of 17, but are off to a 2-3 start in SEC play. Anyone who saw the Tigers hang tight with Duke and Kentucky would think they're a surefire tournament team, but their best win is against Arizona in Maui, and they have no Q1 wins. Opportunities for big wins co…

Bracketology 1/21/19

There was chaos on the top line as Virginia, Michigan and Kansas all lost on Saturday. I spent a while trying to order the top few teams and originally settled on this configuration. Virginia and Michigan don't quite have the depth of quality wins of the other two, Michigan in particular. It's real close between all 5 teams though- they're all legitimate contenders for the #1 overall seed. Gonzaga is getting close to the top line as well.

Down at the bubble, Temple is the only team that took a bad loss over the weekend, falling at home to Florida. I've bumped Wofford up to the 11 line above the First Four teams at they notched a Q2 win against Furman. Baylor is also rocketing towards the bracket with a big win over Texas Tech, they've righted the ship after two ugly Q4 losses in the non-con. Pittsburgh is also moving up the seed list, looking to erase a really ugly loss at home to Niagara.

A little bit of a bracketing quirk today as I have a potential 2nd round Duk…