Sunday, March 11, 2018

Bracketology 3/11/18 Evening (FINAL)

I'm feeling OK about the bubble- Davidson winning helped me out, as I was really having a hard time deciding on MTSU, Louisville or Arizona State for the last spot. I think USC and St. Mary's are the most likely teams in my projection to miss, but I wouldn't be shocked to see UCLA or Texas left out. All of the 8 teams I have listed as out have a chance- though Oklahoma State or Notre Dame getting a bid would indicate a complete shift in the committee's philosophy, in my eyes. I've included my final NIT projection at the bottom- I removed Maryland and BYU for Middle Tennessee and Harvard.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Cincinnati
3: Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan, Auburn
4: West Virginia, Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Arizona
5: Wichita State, Kentucky, Houston, Clemson
6: Ohio State, Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M
7: Miami (FL), TCU, Seton Hall, Nevada
8: Missouri, Virginia Tech, Providence, Rhode Island
9: Butler, St. Bonaventure, North Carolina State, Florida State
10: Alabama, Creighton, Kansas State, Oklahoma
11: (UCLA/Texas), (USC/St. Mary's), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State
12: Davidson, San Diego State, Murray State, Buffalo
13: South Dakota State, Charleston, UNC Greensboro, Marshall
14: Montana, Bucknell, Stephen F. Austin, Wright State
15: Lipscomb, Iona, Penn, Georgia State
16: UMBC, Cal State Fullerton, (Radford/Texas Southern), (LIU Brooklyn/NC Central)

First Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Marquette, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame

Moving In: Davidson, Georgia State
Moving Out: Middle Tennessee, UT-Arlington

1: Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse
2: Marquette, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame
3: Oregon, Penn State, Mississippi State, Nebraska
4: LSU, Georgia, Boise State, Western Kentucky
5: Utah, Washington, Old Dominion, Vermont
6: Stanford, Temple, Louisiana, Rider
7: Northern Kentucky, UC Davis, Florida Gulf Coast, Southeastern Louisiana
8: Harvard, Wagner, UNC Asheville, Hampton

Bracketology 3/11/18 Morning

Welcome to Selection Sunday, folks. Last year, I felt very good about the bubble on Sunday morning and ended up getting all 68 teams right. This year, not so much. I'm still strongly considering Louisville and Arizona State for the last at-large spot. However, I'll feel quite a bit more confident about the bubble if Davidson beats Rhode Island, I'd move MTSU out.

Expect some changes to the seed list today even outside of today's games- I'm going to be doing a lot of scrubbing.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Cincinnati
3: Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan, Auburn
4: Wichita State, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Texas Tech
5: Arizona, Kentucky, Houston, Clemson
6: Ohio State, Florida, Arkansas, TCU
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Nevada
8: Rhode Island, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Butler
9: St. Bonaventure, North Carolina State, Providence, Florida State
10: Creighton, Kansas State, Alabama, UCLA
11: Oklahoma, (Texas/USC), Loyola Chicago, (St. Mary's/Middle Tennessee)
12: New Mexico State, San Diego State, Murray State, Buffalo
13: South Dakota State, Montana, UNC Greensboro, Marshall
14: Bucknell, Charleston, Stephen F. Austin, UT-Arlington
15: Wright State, Lipscomb, Iona, UMBC
16: Penn, Cal State Fullerton, (Radford/Texas Southern), (LIU Brooklyn/NC Central)

First Four Out: Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse, Marquette
Next Three Out: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame

Moving In: UMBC, UT-Arlington, Marshall, Cal State Fullerton, NC Central
Moving Out: Vermont, Louisiana, Western Kentucky, UC Irvine, Hampton

1: Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse, Marquette
2: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame, Oregon
3: Penn State, Mississippi State, Nebraska, LSU
4: Georgia, Boise State, Utah, Washington
5: Old Dominion, Vermont, Stanford, Davidson
6: Temple, Louisiana, Maryland, BYU
7: Rider, Northern Kentucky, UC Davis, Florida Gulf Coast
8: Southeastern Louisiana, Wagner, UNC Asheville, Hampton


Saturday, March 10, 2018

Bracketology 3/10/18

We officially have our first bid stealer as Nevada got run out of the gym by San Diego State last night, I've moved the Aztecs in as a 12 seed. Falling out of the field at their expense is Louisville, Arizona State also moves out in favor of Middle Tennessee. Right now, I think there's 2 spots up for grabs in the field- I wouldn't be shocked to see UCLA, Oklahoma, Texas or USC left out but I think it's unlikely. I think that Louisville, Arizona State and Syracuse all have legitimate claims to be in while the four teams after them are a bit of a longer shot. Just for fun, I've included an NIT projection after the NCAA projection.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati
3: Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan, Auburn
4: Wichita State, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Texas Tech
5: Arizona, Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Arkansas, Houston, Florida, TCU
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Nevada
8: Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Missouri, Virginia Tech
9: Butler, North Carolina State, Providence, Florida State
10: Creighton, Alabama, Kansas State, UCLA
11: Oklahoma, (Texas/USC), Loyola Chicago, (St. Mary's/Middle Tennessee)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, San Diego State, Murray State
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Louisiana, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Charleston
15: Stephen F. Austin, UC Irvine, Wright State, Iona
16: Penn, Lipscomb, (Radford/Hampton), (Texas Southern/LIU Brooklyn)

First Four Out: Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse, Marquette
Next Three Out: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame

Moving In: Middle Tennessee, San Diego State, UC Irvine
Moving Out: Arizona State, Louisville, UC Davis

1: Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse, Marquette
2: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame, Oregon
3: Penn State, Mississippi State, Nebraska, LSU
4: Georgia, Boise State, Utah, Washington
5: Old Dominion, Stanford, Davidson, Temple
6: Maryland, Tulsa, BYU, Boston College
7: South Dakota, St. John's, Rider, Northern Kentucky
8: UC Davis, Florida Gulf Coast, Wagner, UNC Asheville

Friday, March 9, 2018

Bracketology 3/9/18

Pretty much every bubble team is in action today, buckle up. I don't feel great about the cutline- I might move Middle Tennessee in, I'm going to be doing some scrubbing this afternoon. The loss to Southern Miss hurts a lot, but they played a tough NCSOS and the committee might forgive them for that. Most bubble teams are done playing now, although USC, UCLA and Alabama have a chance to keep racking up nice wins. Bracket coming later today.



1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Cincinnati
3: Auburn, Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan
4: Wichita State, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, West Virginia
5: Arizona, Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, Arkansas, TCU
7: Nevada, Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Seton Hall
8: Rhode Island, Missouri, Creighton, Virginia Tech
9: St. Bonaventure, North Carolina State, Butler, Florida State
10: Oklahoma, Kansas State, Providence, Texas
11: St. Mary's, USC, (UCLA/Alabama), (Arizona State/Louisville)
12: Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Murray State
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Louisiana, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Charleston
15: UC Davis, Penn, Iona, Wright State
16: Lipscomb, Stephen F. Austin, (Radford/Hampton), (LIU-Brooklyn/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Baylor
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Georgia
In Consideration: Oregon, Penn State, LSU, Nebraska, Utah

Moving In: Alabama, Western Kentucky
Moving Out: Marquette, Middle Tennessee

Thursday, March 8, 2018

Bracketology 3/8/18

Arizona State took a bad loss to Colorado last night and is in legitimate danger of missing the field. Syracuse also did not help themselves with a blowout loss against North Carolina. Meanwhile, Louisville got a solid win over Florida State to move into the field, Oklahoma State remains in the conversation with their win over Oklahoma and Marquette avoided disaster against DePaul. Pretty much every bubble team is in action today, buckle up.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, North Carolina, Cincinnati
3: Auburn, Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan
4: Wichita State, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, West Virginia
5: Arizona, Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, TCU, Arkansas
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Nevada, Rhode Island, Creighton, Oklahoma
9: St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Florida State
10: Butler, Kansas State, Texas, St. Mary's
11: Providence, USC, (UCLA/Louisville), Middle Tennessee
12: Loyola Chicago, (Arizona State/Marquette), New Mexico State, Murray State
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Louisiana, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Charleston
15: UC Davis, Penn, Iona, Wright State
16: Lipscomb, Stephen F. Austin, (Radford/Hampton), (LIU-Brooklyn/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Alabama, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Syracuse, LSU, Boise State, Mississippi State
In Consideration: Penn State, Nebraska, Utah, Georgia

Moving In: Louisville, Stephen F. Austin
Moving Out: Alabama, Nicholls State

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Bracketology 3/7/18

Gonzaga smashed BYU last night and I've moved them up to a 4 seed as a result. I shifted a few teams around in the 2 through 5 lines after looking at resumes in detail this morning- I also moved North Carolina back up to a 2. A number of bubble teams face must-wins today: Louisville, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Marquette and Washington among them. Syracuse is close to a must-win against North Carolina as well.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, North Carolina, Cincinnati
3: Auburn, Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan
4: Wichita State, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, West Virginia
5: Arizona, Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, TCU, Arkansas
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, North Carolina State
9: Florida State, St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, Creighton
10: Butler, Kansas State, Arizona State, Texas
11: St. Mary's, Providence, (USC/Marquette), Middle Tennessee
12: Loyola Chicago, (UCLA/Alabama), New Mexico State, Murray State
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Louisiana, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Charleston
15: UC Davis, Penn, Iona, Wright State
16: Lipscomb, Nicholls State, (Radford/Hampton), (LIU-Brooklyn/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Baylor, Syracuse, Louisville, LSU
Next Four Out: Boise State, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, Penn State
In Consideration: Notre Dame, Nebraska, Washington, Utah, Nebraska, Georgia

Moving In: Charleston, LIU-Brooklyn
Moving Out: Northeastern, Wagner

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Bracketology 3/6/18

St. Mary's fell to BYU in the WCC semis and is in some danger of missing the tournament. They'll probably be fine, but the First Four is a definite possibility and if the committee decides to take a harsh stance on non-con SOS I wouldn't be shocked to see them miss the field. BYU's victory makes them a potential bid thief, their true seed will probably be a 12 if they win but they could get moved around to keep them in Thursday/Saturday games. The ACC tournament kicks off today- Syracuse and Notre Dame absolutely need wins.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, Auburn, Cincinnati
3: Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas Tech
4: Michigan, Wichita State, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Clemson, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, TCU, Arkansas
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, North Carolina State
9: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Butler
10: St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Arizona State, Texas
11: St. Mary's, Providence, (USC/Alabama), Middle Tennessee
12: (Marquette/UCLA), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Murray State
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Louisiana, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northeastern, Bucknell
15: UC Davis, Penn, Iona, Wright State
16: Wagner, Lipscomb, (Nicholls State/Radford), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Baylor, Louisville, LSU, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Washington, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State
In Consideration: Nebraska, Utah, Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame

Moving In: Texas, East Tennessee State, Lipscomb
Moving Out: UNC Greensboro, Florida Gulf Coast

Monday, March 5, 2018

Bracketology 3/5/18

4 more bids were punched last night- Loyola Chicago took their fate in their own hands and will not be sweating it out on Sunday. Radford made an insane NBA 3 to seal their bid and Lipscomb survived a furious comeback from FGCU. Michigan had an extremely impressive win over Purdue to win the Big Ten Tournament- I saw all four Michigan games this week in person, and they look incredibly dangerous- they're deep, big, and have lots of guys who can shoot 3s.

I feel pretty uneasy about the 2 and 3 lines- for now, I've moved Auburn and Cincinnati up to a 2 and Michigan State and North Carolina to a 3, but those teams are all very close in my eyes.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, Auburn, Cincinnati
3: Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas Tech
4: Michigan, Wichita State, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Clemson, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, TCU, Arkansas
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, North Carolina State
9: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Butler
10: St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Arizona State
11: Texas, Providence, (USC/Alabama), Middle Tennessee
12: (Marquette/UCLA), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Vermont
13: Buffalo, Louisiana, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: East Tennessee State, Montana, Northeastern, Bucknell
15: UC Davis, Penn, Iona, Wright State
16: Wagner, Lipscomb, (Nicholls State/Radford), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Baylor, Louisville, LSU, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Washington, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State
In Consideration: Nebraska, Utah, Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame

Moving In: Texas, East Tennessee State, Lipscomb
Moving Out: UNC Greensboro, Florida Gulf Coast

Sunday, March 4, 2018

Bracketology 3/4/18

Packed day of hoops throughout the bracket today- bubble teams I have my eye on include Texas (at home against West Virginia), Marquette (at home against Creighton) and Syracuse (at home against Clemson). All of those are winnable, big upside games that could help move each team into the field. Lots of action around the bubble yesterday- Marquette, UCLA and Texas got big wins to move into the field, while Louisville, Baylor and Washington fell out. St. Mary's nearly took a catastrophic loss to Pepperdine but they advanced. And here at the Garden, Michigan got a huge win over Michigan State and Penn State's hopes went up at smoke against Purdue.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina
3: Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Wichita State
4: Texas Tech, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan
5: Clemson, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, TCU, Arkansas
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, North Carolina State
9: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Butler
10: St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Arizona State
11: Texas, Providence, (USC/Alabama), Middle Tennessee
12: (Marquette/UCLA), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Vermont
13: Buffalo, Louisiana, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northeastern, Bucknell
15: Florida Gulf Coast, UC Davis, Penn, Iona
16: Wright State, Wagner, (Nicholls State/Radford), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Baylor, Louisville, LSU, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Washington, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State
In Consideration: Nebraska, Utah, Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame

Moving In: Texas, Marquette, UCLA, UC Davis, Wright State
Moving Out: Louisville, Baylor, Washington, UC Irvine, Northern Kentucky

Saturday, March 3, 2018

Bracketology 3/3/18

What a day at MSG- Penn State kept their (slim) hopes alive with a last second win against Ohio State, Purdue and Michigan State gutted out tough wins to advance, and Nebraska's hopes all but disappeared against Michigan. Elsewhere, Rhode Island lost again although losing at Davidson is not nearly as damaging as the home loss to St. Joe's. If the Rams lose in the A-10 quarters, they'll be fine but Selection Sunday will be a little nervy.

Packed day of hoops throughout the bracket today- bubble teams I have my eye on include Texas (at home against West Virginia), Marquette (at home against Creighton) and Syracuse (at home against Clemson). All of those are winnable, big upside games that could help move each team into the field.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: Duke, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina
3: Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Wichita State
4: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Clemson, Arizona
5: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan
6: Houston, TCU, Arkansas, Nevada
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Florida, Seton Hall
8: Missouri, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech
9: Florida State, Creighton, Butler, St. Mary's
10: North Carolina State, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee, St. Bonaventure
11: USC, Kansas State, Alabama, (Providence/Baylor)
12: (Louisville/Washington), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northern Kentucky, Northeastern
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, UC Irvine, Penn
16: Iona, Wagner, (Nicholls State/Radford), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Texas, Mississippi State, Boise State, UCLA
Next Four Out: Marquette, LSU, Nebraska, Syracuse
In Consideration: Utah, Penn State, South Carolina, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State

Moving In: Iona, Radford
Moving Out: Canisius, UNC Asheville

Friday, March 2, 2018

Bracketology 3/2/18

What a collapse by Louisville- they would've been quite safe if they had pulled off that win but now they remain right on the cutline. Middle Tennessee also got a nice win over WKU to move more safely into the field.

I had a blast at the Garden yesterday- all 4 games were close, and the crowd really got behind Rutgers in the nightcap. Today, Nebraska faces a must win against Michigan while MSU, Purdue and Ohio State fight for seeding.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: Duke, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina
3: Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Wichita State
4: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Clemson, Ohio State
5: Arizona, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan
6: Houston, TCU, Arkansas, Nevada
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Florida
8: Seton Hall, Missouri, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech
9: Florida State, Creighton, Butler, St. Mary's
10: North Carolina State, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee, St. Bonaventure
11: USC, Kansas State, Alabama, (Providence/Baylor)
12: (Louisville/Washington), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northern Kentucky, Northeastern
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Canisius, UC Irvine
16: Penn, Wagner, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Texas, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Boise State
Next Four Out: UCLA, Marquette, LSU, Syracuse
In Consideration: Utah, South Carolina, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State

Moving In: UC Irvine
Moving Out:UC Santa Barbara

Thursday, March 1, 2018

Bracketology 3/1/18

I arrived in New York last night for the Big Ten tournament, and to pass the time on the trip here I printed out every at-large contender's resume and combed through them. That leads to changes throughout the bracket- beneficiaries include USC and Louisville, while Creighton and Alabama were among the teams who moved down. Louisville has a chance for a season-defining win tonight at home against Virginia, but the most interesting game of the day is in Conference USA as Western Kentucky takes on Middle Tennessee. Even though I have the Hilltoppers in the Next Four Out I think they have virtually no shot at an at-large: they'd have to win out until the tournament final at least. The scenario where CUSA sends 2 teams dancing is where MTSU wins tonight, avoids a bad loss in the conference tourney but loses to Old Dominion/Marshall/WKU.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: Duke, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina
3: Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Wichita State
4: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Clemson, Ohio State
5: Arizona, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan
6: Houston, TCU, Arkansas, Nevada
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Florida
8: Seton Hall, Missouri, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech
9: North Carolina State, Florida State, Creighton, Butler
10: St. Mary's, Arizona State, St. Bonaventure, USC
11: Kansas State, Middle Tennessee, Alabama, (Providence/Louisville)
12: (Baylor/Washington), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northern Kentucky, Northeastern
15: Bucknell, UC Santa Barbara, Florida Gulf Coast, Canisius
16: Penn, Wagner, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Texas, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Boise State
Next Four Out: UCLA, Marquette, LSU, Western Kentucky
In Consideration: Syracuse, Utah, South Carolina, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State

Moving In: Louisville, Washington
Moving Out: Texas, Mississippi State

Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Bracketology 2/28/18

I moved North Carolina up to a 2 seed even though they lost, as I dropped Auburn for their loss over Arkansas. I felt like the top 9 teams were a definite tier above the rest of the 3 seeds, so the Heels move up. Elsewhere, my jaw dropped when I saw the Rhode Island score- after getting waxed by 30 at home by St. Joe's the Rams fall quite a bit. They have the potential to fall quite a bit further as they have a deceptively tricky game at Davidson to close the regular season followed by the A-10 tournament. The game of the night was also in the A-10 as St. Bonaventure knocked off Davidson in a 3OT thriller to stay in the field. Tonight, Syracuse has a tough, but low-upside game at Boston College, and LSU faces the same situation at South Carolina.

1: Virginia, Xavier, Villanova, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina
3: Auburn, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Wichita State
4: West Virginia, Clemson, Texas Tech, Arizona
5: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Michigan, Kentucky
6: Nevada, Creighton, Arkansas, Houston
7: Texas A&M, Rhode Island, TCU, Florida
8: Missouri, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Miami (FL)
9: Alabama, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Arizona State
10: St. Mary's, Kansas State, North Carolina State, Butler
11: Middle Tennessee, Providence, St. Bonaventure, (Syracuse/Texas)
12: (Baylor/USC), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northern Kentucky, Northeastern
15: Bucknell, UC Santa Barbara, Florida Gulf Coast, Canisius
16: Penn, Wagner, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: LSU, Mississippi State, Washington, Louisville
Next Four Out: Georgia, Temple, Nebraska, Western Kentucky
In Consideration: UCLA, Utah, Notre Dame, Marquette, Boise State

Moving In: Baylor, USC, Hampton
Moving Out: LSU, Mississippi State, Bethune-Cookman

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Bracketology 2/27/18

Texas Tech's slide continues and they're almost out of the protected seed lines, while Virginia Tech locked up their bid with a win over Duke. Huge night in the SEC tonight, Mississippi State has a chance for a resume-defining win against Tennessee.


I'm going to the Big Ten Tournament later this week, so I might not have daily updates later in the week. Looking forward to it- it'll be my first time at Madison Square Garden, and I was only able to go to one MSU game during the regular season this year.


1: Virginia, Xavier, Villanova, Kansas
2: Duke, Auburn, Purdue, Michigan State
3: North Carolina, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Wichita State
4: West Virginia, Clemson, Texas Tech, Arizona
5: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Michigan
6: Kentucky, Nevada, Creighton, Houston
7: Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri, Virginia Tech
8: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Florida State, TCU
9: Florida, Seton Hall, Kansas State, Arizona State
10: St. Mary's, North Carolina State, Miami (FL), Butler
11: Middle Tennessee, Providence, St. Bonaventure, (Syracuse/Mississippi State)
12: (Texas/LSU), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northern Kentucky, Northeastern
15: Bucknell, UC Santa Barbara, Florida Gulf Coast, Canisius
16: Penn, Wagner, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Bethune Cookman/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Washington, Louisville, Baylor, USC
Next Four Out: Georgia, Temple, Nebraska, Boise State
In Consideration: Western Kentucky, UCLA, Utah, Notre Dame, Marquette

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None

Monday, February 26, 2018

Bracketology 2/26/18

My Last night was relatively quiet, Nebraska stays alive with a win over Penn State and UCLA took a tumble by losing at Colorado. NC State is looking safer after their win over Florida State, and is now up to a 10. Tonight, Texas Tech looks to end their slide against West Virginia and Texas looks for a resume-defining win against Kansas.

One note about the bracket- because all of my 7 seeds are from the SEC, there's a possible SEC matchup between Auburn and Texas A&M in the round of 32, this is unavoidable without dropping one of the 7 seeds down to the 8 line. 


1: Virginia, Xavier, Villanova, Kansas
2: Duke, Auburn, Purdue, Michigan State
3: North Carolina, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Texas Tech
4: Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Michigan
6: Kentucky, Nevada, Creighton, Houston
7: Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas
8: Oklahoma, Florida State, Florida, TCU
9: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Arizona State
10: St. Mary's, North Carolina State, Miami (FL), Butler
11: Middle Tennessee, Providence, St. Bonaventure, (Texas/Mississippi State)
12: (Syracuse/LSU), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northern Kentucky, Northeastern
15: Bucknell, UC Santa Barbara, Florida Gulf Coast, Canisius
16: Penn, Wagner, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Bethune Cookman/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Washington, Louisville, Baylor, USC
Next Four Out: Georgia, Temple, Nebraska, Boise State
In Consideration: Western Kentucky, UCLA, Utah, Notre Dame, Marquette

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Bracketology 2/25/18

Bubble winners today included Florida (over Auburn), Mississippi State (over South Carolina) and Louisville (over Virginia Tech) while losers included LSU (to Georgia), Baylor (to TCU) and Utah (to USC). I kept LSU in for now, I know that's an unpopular opinion but they have so many good wins right now and Washington's predictive metrics are worrying. A lot of SEC teams in the middle of the bracket, Atlanta will be fun.

1: Virginia, Xavier, Villanova, Kansas
2: Duke, Auburn, Purdue, Michigan State
3: North Carolina, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Texas Tech
4: Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Michigan
6: Kentucky, Nevada, Texas A&M, Houston
7: Creighton, Alabama, Missouri, Florida State
8: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Florida, Arizona State
9: TCU, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Kansas State
10: St. Mary's, Miami (FL), Middle Tennessee, Butler
11: North Carolina State, Providence, St. Bonaventure, (Texas/Mississippi State)
12: (Syracuse/LSU), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northern Kentucky, Northeastern
15: Bucknell, UC Santa Barbara, Florida Gulf Coast, Canisius
16: Penn, Wagner, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Bethune Cookman/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Washington, Louisville, Baylor, USC
Next Four Out: Georgia, Temple, UCLA, Boise State
In Consideration: Western Kentucky, Utah, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Marquette

Moving In: Mississippi State, Northeastern, Canisius, UNC Greensboro, Arkansas Pine Bluff
Moving Out: Baylor, Charleston, Rider, East Tennessee State, Southern

Friday, February 23, 2018

Bracketology 2/23/18

State. Houston and Arizona State took road losses yesterday, but neither fall that far. Utah moves closer to the bracket, if they beat USC and Colorado at home they'll probably be square on the cutline going into the Pac-12 tournament. Ohio State @ Indiana is the biggest game of the night, although tonight is largely a breather before a busy weekend.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Auburn, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State
3: North Carolina, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Tennessee
4: Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Ohio State, Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Michigan
6: Kentucky, Nevada, Alabama, Texas A&M
7: Houston, Missouri, Arizona State, Creighton
8: Virginia Tech, Florida State, Kansas State, Oklahoma
9: Arkansas, St. Mary's, Seton Hall, TCU
10: Florida, Miami (FL), Butler, North Carolina State
11: St. Bonaventure, Middle Tennessee, LSU, (Providence/Texas)
12: (Syracuse/Baylor), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, Montana
14: South Dakota State, East Tennessee State, Northern Kentucky, Bucknell
15: UC Santa Barbara, Charleston, Rider, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Penn, Wagner, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Bethune Cookman/Southern)

First Four Out: Mississippi State, Washington, Temple, Georgia
Next Four Out: Utah, USC, UCLA, Boise State
In Consideration: Louisville, Marquette, Western Kentucky, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State

Moving In: Baylor, UNC Asheville
Moving Out: Washington, Winthrop

Thursday, February 22, 2018

Bracketology 2/22/18

I had an interesting night last night at the Dunkin' Donuts Center, with the game getting called midway through the second half. Unfortunately, I won't be able to make it to the continuation of the game today, but at least I got an interesting story out of it.

On the bubble, Texas and Syracuse both lost but both remain in for now. Virginia Tech and Kansas State got nice wins that have them up on the 8 line, pretty safely in the field for now. Florida's slide continues, it looks like they're trying the 2017 Vanderbilt method of making the tournament. Not sure they have the RPI for it, though. Most of the action tonight is in the Pac-12, the Arizona schools begin the Oregon road trip which is tougher than it looks, while Washington and UCLA have tough road games. But I wouldn't sleep on the game of the year in the Summit League, as South Dakota takes on South Dakota State.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Auburn, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State
3: North Carolina, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Tennessee
4: Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Ohio State, Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Michigan
6: Kentucky, Houston, Arizona State, Nevada
7: Alabama, Texas A&M, Missouri, Creighton
8: Virginia Tech, Florida State, Kansas State, Oklahoma
9: Arkansas, St. Mary's, Florida, TCU
10: Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Butler, North Carolina State
11: St. Bonaventure, Providence, Middle Tennessee, (LSU/Syracuse)
12: (Washington/Texas), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, East Tennessee State
14: Montana, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Charleston, Rider, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Winthrop, Penn, (Wagner/Nicholls State), (Bethune Cookman/Southern)

First Four Out: Georgia, Baylor, Mississippi State, UCLA
Next Four Out: Temple, USC, Boise State, Louisville
In Consideration: Marquette, Utah, Western Kentucky, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Bracketology 2/21/18

The SEC continues to be a mess, as Missouri, Arkansas and Texas A&M all took losses at home last night. The Aggies only fall to the 7 line despite a 6-9 record in conference. Elsewhere, West Virginia smashed Baylor in Waco to drop the Bears out of the field for now. I'll be at a big bubble game tonight here in Providence as Seton Hall comes to town, but Michigan/Penn State is probably the most interesting game of the night.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Auburn, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State
3: Texas Tech, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Clemson
4: Tennessee, Wichita State, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Ohio State, Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Kentucky
6: Houston, Alabama, Michigan, Arizona State
7: Texas A&M, Nevada, Missouri, Creighton
8: Florida State, Oklahoma, Florida, Virginia Tech
9: Arkansas, Kansas State, St. Mary's, TCU
10: Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Butler, North Carolina State
11: St. Bonaventure, Providence, Middle Tennessee, (Syracuse/Texas)
12: (LSU/Washington), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, East Tennessee State
14: Montana, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Charleston, Rider, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Winthrop, Penn, (Wagner/Nicholls State), (Bethune Cookman/Southern)

First Four Out: Georgia, Baylor, Mississippi State, UCLA
Next Four Out: Temple, Louisville, Boise State, Marquette
In Consideration: USC, Utah, Western Kentucky, Nebraska, Penn State, Notre Dame

Moving In: Washington
Moving Out: Baylor

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Bracketology 2/20/18

I want to talk about the SEC briefly, specifically LSU and Georgia. I've consistently had both teams higher than the consensus because they have a ton of good wins- 7 Q1 and 1 Q2 win for LSU, 5 Q1 and 4 Q2 wins for Georgia. Sure, they have a lot of losses and bad RPI numbers, but why is Florida so safely in the field when they're in a similar situation? Why is Texas so far ahead of LSU and Georgia in most projections when they also have 11 losses in a good conference, with tons of good wins? Oklahoma getting a 4 seed and Kansas getting a 2 seed in the bracket reveal showed me that the committee is still focusing on quality wins above all else, and I think that people shouldn't be sleeping on these SEC bubble teams.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Auburn, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State
3: Texas Tech, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Clemson
4: Tennessee, Wichita State, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Ohio State, Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Missouri
6: Houston, Kentucky, Alabama, Michigan
7: Creighton, Nevada, Texas A&M, Florida State
8: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida
9: Kansas State, Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, TCU
10: Miami (FL), Seton Hall, North Carolina State, St. Bonaventure
11: Providence, Butler, Middle Tennessee, (Syracuse/Texas)
12: (LSU/Baylor), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Buffalo, Vermont, Murray State, East Tennessee State
14: Montana, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Charleston, Rider, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Winthrop, Penn, (Wagner/Nicholls State), (Bethune Cookman/Southern)

First Four Out: Georgia, Washington, UCLA, Temple
Next Four Out: Louisville, Boise State, Marquette, USC
In Consideration: Mississippi State, Utah, Western Kentucky, Nebraska, Penn State, Notre Dame

Moving In: Bethune Cookman
Moving Out: Savannah State

Monday, February 19, 2018

Bracketology 2/19/18

I spent forever making this seed list, especially the 6-11 seed range. Everything is very fluid in the middle of the bracket, as some teams (Houston, Michigan) had big jumps in this update while others (Florida, Miami) are falling like a rock. The Arizona schools are now the only Pac-12 schools in the bracket, as UCLA and USC fall out. Oklahoma looks to stop their slide towards the bubble at the Phog tonight while Notre Dame looks to climb back into serious bubble contention against Miami.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Auburn, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State
3: Texas Tech, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Clemson
4: Tennessee, Wichita State, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Ohio State, Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Missouri
6: Houston, Kentucky, Alabama, Michigan
7: Creighton, Nevada, Texas A&M, Oklahoma
8: Florida State, Arizona State, Arkansas, Virginia Tech
9: Kansas State, Florida, St. Mary's, North Carolina State
10: St. Bonaventure, Providence, Miami (FL), Butler
11: Syracuse, TCU, Middle Tennessee, (Seton Hall/Texas)
12: (LSU/Baylor), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Buffalo, Vermont, Murray State, East Tennessee State
14: Montana, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Charleston, Rider, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Winthrop, Penn, (Wagner/Nicholls State), (Savannah State/Southern)

First Four Out: Georgia, Boise State, Washington, UCLA
Next Four Out: Temple, Louisville, Marquette, USC
In Consideration: Mississippi State, Utah, Western Kentucky, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Penn State, Loyola Chicago

Moving In: Syracuse, LSU, St. Bonaventure, Winthrop, Southern
Moving Out: USC, Baylor, UCLA, UNC Asheville, Arkansas Pine Bluff

Friday, February 16, 2018

Bracketology 2/16/18

Auburn moves back onto the 1 line as Purdue fell to Wisconsin. St. Mary's took a questionable loss to San Francisco and falls closer to the bubble. USC, UCLA and Utah all got wins out west to help their bubble chances. The big game tonight is Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure- might be a must-win for the Bonnies if they want an at-large.

1: Virginia, Xavier, Villanova, Auburn
2: Kansas, Duke, Purdue, Texas Tech
3: Michigan State, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Tennessee
4: Arizona, Clemson, West Virginia, Ohio State
5: Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Wichita State
6: Missouri, Creighton, Kentucky, Florida State
7: Texas A&M, Nevada, Florida, Alabama
8: Miami (FL), Houston, Providence, Seton Hall
9: Virginia Tech, Arizona State, TCU, St. Mary's
10: Louisville, Michigan, Kansas State, Arkansas
11: Middle Tennessee, North Carolina State, USC, (Butler/Texas)
12: (UCLA/Baylor), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Vermont
13: Louisiana, Buffalo, Murray State, East Tennessee State
14: Montana, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Savannah State/Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Marquette, Syracuse, Utah, Nebraska
Next Four Out: LSU, St. Bonaventure, Washington, Georgia
In Consideration: Boise State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Loyola Chicago, Penn State, Temple, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, South Carolina
On the Brink: Notre Dame, BYU, Boston College, Colorado, Louisiana, SMU, UCF, St. John's

Moving In: UCLA, Baylor
Moving Out: LSU, Georgia

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Bracketology 2/15/18

It looks like I made a big mistake- I recently moved to Providence and was supposed to go to my first Providence basketball game last night against Villanova, but I opted to see Providence play Seton Hall next week because it was cheaper. A shame that I missed last night's thriller, hopefully the game next week is just as entertaining. The Friars move up to an 8 seed in today's projection, while Villanova falls to the 3rd 1 seed. If they lose to Xavier on Saturday, I might move them down to a 2. Two games I'm looking forward to tonight- Cincinnati @ Houston, as the Bearcats face their toughest challenge yet in the American, and Ohio State @ Penn State, as a Michigan State fan I'm pulling for the Nittany Lions so MSU can take a share of the Big Ten title.

1: Virginia, Xavier, Villanova, Purdue
2: Auburn, Kansas, Cincinnati, Duke
3: Texas Tech, Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee
4: Clemson, Ohio State, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Missouri
6: Wichita State, Creighton, Kentucky, Florida State
7: Texas A&M, Nevada, Florida, Alabama
8: St. Mary's, Miami (FL), Arizona State, Providence
9: Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, TCU, Houston
10: Louisville, Michigan, Kansas State, Arkansas
11: North Carolina State, Middle Tennessee, Butler, (USC/LSU)
12: (Georgia/Texas), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Vermont
13: Louisiana, Buffalo, Murray State, Montana
14: East Tennessee State, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Savannah State/Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Washington, UCLA, Baylor, Marquette
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Nebraska, St. Bonaventure, Boise State
In Consideration: Utah, New Mexico State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Temple, Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky, South Carolina
On the Brink: Notre Dame, BYU, Boston College, Colorado, Louisiana, SMU, Oregon, UCF

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Bracketology 2/14/18

The biggest bubble news of the night was Butler dropping a home game against Georgetown- it was the Bulldogs' first bad non-Q1 loss of the year and they are now tumbling  close to the cutline. Elsewhere, Michigan State hammered Minnesota and Texas Tech got a nice win over Oklahoma. The big bubble game tonight is Nevada @ Boise State- the Broncos will likely vault back into the field with a win, but their at-large chances will become very slim.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Purdue
2: Auburn, Kansas, Cincinnati, Duke
3: Texas Tech, Clemson, Michigan State, North Carolina
4: Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Florida
6: Missouri, Kentucky, Wichita State, Creighton
7: Texas A&M, Alabama, Miami (FL), St. Mary's
8: Arizona State, Florida State, Nevada, Seton Hall
9: Virginia Tech, TCU, Houston, Louisville
10: Michigan, Providence, Arkansas, Middle Tennessee
11: Butler, Kansas State, USC, (LSU/Syracuse)
12: (Texas/North Carolina State), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Vermont
13: Louisiana, Buffalo, Murray State, Montana
14: East Tennessee State, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Savannah State/Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Washington, UCLA, Baylor, Marquette
Next Four Out: Boise State, Mississippi State, Georgia, Oklahoma State
In Consideration: Nebraska, St. Bonaventure, Utah, New Mexico State, Temple, Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky, SMU, South Carolina, Nebraska
On the Brink: Notre Dame, BYU, Boston College, Colorado, Louisiana, Oregon, UCF

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Bracketology 2/13/18

Crazy finish in the Patriot League last night as Bucknell erased a 10 point deficit in under a minute to extend their lead to 3 games. Baylor got a huge double OT win at Texas which propels them to the first four out, and drops the Longhorns down close to the cutline. TCU lost again and has now dropped 9 of 14, the schedule eases a bit now as they don't play any teams above them in this projection until Texas Tech at the end of the regular season. I'll have my eye on Texas A&M @ Missouri tonight: both teams are scorching hot and making a climb up the bracket. It's not impossible for either to work their way up to a protected seed if they can continue to win.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Purdue
2: Auburn, Kansas, Cincinnati, Duke
3: Clemson, Texas Tech, Michigan State, North Carolina
4: Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona, Oklahoma
5: West Virginia, Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Florida
6: Texas A&M, Kentucky, Wichita State, Creighton
7: Missouri, Alabama, Miami (FL), St. Mary's
8: Arizona State, Florida State, Nevada, Seton Hall
9: Virginia Tech, Butler, TCU, Houston
10: Louisville, Michigan, Providence, Arkansas
11: Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, USC, (LSU/Syracuse)
12: (Texas/North Carolina State), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Vermont
13: Louisiana, Buffalo, Murray State, Montana
14: East Tennessee State, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Savannah State/Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Washington, UCLA, Baylor, Marquette
Next Four Out: Boise State, Mississippi State, Georgia, Oklahoma State
In Consideration: St. Bonaventure, Utah, New Mexico State, Temple, Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky, South Carolina, SMU, Nebraska
On the Brink: Notre Dame, BYU, Boston College, Maryland, Colorado, Louisiana, Oregon, UCF

Monday, February 12, 2018

Bracketology 2/12/18

For me, The biggest surprise in the committee's top 16 reveal was Oklahoma as a 4 seed- to me that shows the importance of group 1 wins, of which Oklahoma has 6. Overall, I had Gonzaga and Rhode Island instead of Arizona and Oklahoma as 4 seeds, and I flipped Texas Tech and Duke on the 2/3 lines. Michigan State was a bit lower than I expected, which could be a sign that the predictive-based metrics will not be that influential this year. The Big 12 is the focus of attention tonight, as all of the teams clogged in the middle of the conference standings fight for positioning.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Purdue
2: Auburn, Kansas, Cincinnati, Duke
3: Clemson, Texas Tech, Michigan State, North Carolina
4: Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona, Oklahoma
5: Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Florida, West Virginia
6: Texas A&M, Kentucky, Wichita State, Creighton
7: Missouri, Alabama, Miami (FL), St. Mary's
8: Arizona State, Florida State, TCU, Nevada
9: Virginia Tech, Butler, Seton Hall, Houston
10: Louisville, Michigan, Providence, Texas
11: Arkansas, Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, (USC/North Carolina State)
12: (LSU/Syracuse), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Vermont
13: Louisiana, Buffalo, Murray State, East Tennessee State
14: Montana, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Grambling State/Savannah State)

First Four Out: Washington, UCLA, Marquette, Boise State
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Georgia, Oklahoma State, St. Bonaventure
In Consideration: Utah, Baylor, New Mexico State, Temple, Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky, South Carolina
On the Brink: SMU, Notre Dame, Nebraska, BYU, Boston College, Maryland, Colorado, Louisiana, Oregon, UCF

Sunday, February 11, 2018

Bracketology 2/11/18

Massive movement in the seed list yesterday, from the top to the bottom. Some quick notes on the seed list:
-I have no clue how to rank teams 4 through 10 (Purdue, my 2 seeds, Michigan State and Clemson). I could see the committee doing absolutely anything among these teams. Michigan State in particular will be an interesting litmus test as to the power of the RPI vs. predictive metrics.
-There was also a ton of upheaval on the 5 through 8 lines. Big winners include Texas A&M, who jumped all the way from an 8 seed to a 5 seed, Alabama, who is now far from the bubble foray, and Florida who jumped from a 5 to a 7. Those big jumps were caused by lots of teams in the area losing- West Virginia, Creighton, Oklahoma, Miami, St. Mary's and more.

The committee's reveal of their top 16 teams will be telling today- I'm watching for Michigan State's seed, as mentioned above, but also as to whether or not Gonzaga and Rhode Island will make the top 16, as they have similarly wide gulfs between their RPIs and Kenpom/Sagarin. It's only 4 weeks until Selection Sunday, buckle up because it's going to be a bumpy ride.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Xavier, Purdue
2: Auburn, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Kansas
3: Michigan State, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke
4: Tennessee, Ohio State, Gonzaga, Rhode Island
5: Arizona, Florida, West Virginia, Texas A&M
6: Kentucky, Wichita State, Creighton, Missouri
7: Alabama, Oklahoma, Miami (FL), St. Mary's
8: Arizona State, Florida State, TCU, Nevada
9: Virginia Tech, Butler, Seton Hall, Houston
10: Louisville, Michigan, Providence, Texas
11: Arkansas, Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, (USC/North Carolina State)
12: (LSU/Syracuse), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Vermont
13: Louisiana, Buffalo, Murray State, East Tennessee State
14: Montana, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Grambling State/Savannah State)

First Four Out: Washington, UCLA, Marquette, Boise State
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Georgia, Oklahoma State, St. Bonaventure
In Consideration: Utah, Baylor, New Mexico State, SMU, Temple, Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky, South Carolina
On the Brink: Notre Dame, Nebraska, BYU, Boston College, Maryland, Colorado, Louisiana, Oregon, UCF

Friday, February 9, 2018

Bracketology 2/9/18

Aside from Duke/UNC, the interesting action last night was on the west coast. UCLA moves closer to the field with a win at Arizona which drops the Pac-12 leaders to the 6 line. Washington looked like their Kenpom rating in a blowout loss in Autzen. And Gonzaga and St. Mary's keep chugging along en route to their titanic clash this Saturday. Davidson at Rhode Island is the biggest game tonight- the Wildcats are better than most people realize so this will be a tough game for the Rams.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Xavier
2: Kansas, Cincinnati, Auburn, Tennessee
3: Clemson, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Duke
4: North Carolina, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Ohio State
5: Florida, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Miami (FL)
6: St. Mary's, Wichita State, Gonzaga, Arizona
7: Creighton, Florida State, Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Texas A&M, Providence, Alabama, Arizona State
9: Butler, Texas, Nevada, TCU
10: Houston, Louisville, Michigan, Arkansas
11: Washington, Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, (Virginia Tech/LSU)
12: (Boise State/USC), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Buffalo
13: Louisiana, Vermont, Murray State, East Tennessee State
14: Montana, Northern Kentucky, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (UNC Asheville/Nicholls State), (North Carolina A&T/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Mississippi State, North Carolina State, Marquette, UCLA
Next Four Out: Georgia, Syracuse, St. Bonaventure, Utah

In Consideration: South Carolina, New Mexico State, SMU, Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Nebraska
On the Brink: BYU, Baylor, Temple, Maryland, Colorado, Buffalo, Notre Dame, Oregon, UCF, Boston College

Moving In: Murray State
Moving Out: Belmont

Thursday, February 8, 2018

Bracketology 2/8/18

3 of the top 5 teams on the seed list fell at home last night, although none of them moved seed lines. Purdue's grasp on a 1 seed is now much more tenuous- they'll probably drop if they lose in East Lansing on Saturday, while the Spartans may move up to a 2 seed with a win. On the bubble, Kansas State and Virginia Tech got big wins against fellow bubble teams Texas and NC State and move into the field.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Xavier
2: Kansas, Cincinnati, Auburn, Tennessee
3: Clemson, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Duke
4: West Virginia, Rhode Island, Ohio State, North Carolina
5: Florida, Arizona, Oklahoma, Kentucky
6: Miami (FL), St. Mary's, Wichita State, Gonzaga
7: Creighton, Florida State, Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Texas A&M, Providence, Alabama, Butler
9: Texas, Washington, Nevada, Arizona State
10: TCU, Louisville, Michigan, Arkansas
11: Houston, Middle Tennessee, USC, (Kansas State/Virginia Tech)
12: (LSU/Boise State), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Louisiana
13: Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee State, Montana
14: Northern Kentucky, Belmont, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (UNC Asheville/Nicholls State), (North Carolina A&T/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Mississippi State, North Carolina State, Marquette, Georgia
Next Four Out: Syracuse, St. Bonaventure, SMU, Utah

In Consideration: South Carolina, New Mexico State, UCLA, Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky, Nebraska, Louisiana
On the Brink: BYU, Baylor, Temple, Maryland, Colorado, Buffalo, Notre Dame, Oregon, UCF, Boston College

Moving In: Virginia Tech, Kansas State
Moving Out: North Carolina State, Georgia

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Bracketology 2/7/18

Xavier moves up to a one seed with their win at Butler, and Boise State moves into the field with a nice win at New Mexico. I'll have my eye on Purdue/Ohio State tonight as the Boilermakers play their first of two huge games in a row.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Xavier
2: Auburn, Kansas, Cincinnati, Clemson
3: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Duke
4: West Virginia, Rhode Island, North Carolina, Arizona
5: Florida, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Miami (FL)
6: St. Mary's, Wichita State, Florida State, Seton Hall
7: Gonzaga, Creighton, Ohio State, Nevada
8: Texas, Missouri, Providence, Alabama
9: Butler, Washington, Arizona State, TCU
10: Louisville, Michigan, Arkansas, Texas A&M
11: Houston, Middle Tennessee, USC, (North Carolina State/LSU)
12: (Georgia/Boise State), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Louisiana
13: Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee State, Montana
14: Northern Kentucky, Belmont, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (UNC Asheville/Nicholls State), (North Carolina A&T/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Mississippi State, Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Syracuse
Next Four Out: St. Bonaventure, SMU, Utah, South Carolina

In Consideration: New Mexico State, UCLA, Loyola Chicago, Marquette, Western Kentucky, Nebraska, Maryland, Louisiana
On the Brink: BYU, Baylor, Temple, Colorado, Buffalo, Notre Dame, Oregon, UCF, Boston College

Moving In: Boise State
Moving Out: Kansas State

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Bracketology 2/6/18

West Virginia handed Oklahoma their first home loss of the year, which drops Oklahoma from the protected seeds for the first time all year. Syracuse moves closer to the bracket with a big win at Louisville. Tonight will be huge throughout the bracket, I'll be keeping my eye specifically on the 1-seed race as Xavier goes to Hinkle Fieldhouse and Kansas hosts a TCU team which has been their kryptonite in recent years.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Auburn
2: Xavier, Kansas, Cincinnati, Clemson
3: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Michigan State, Duke
4: West Virginia, Kentucky, Rhode Island, North Carolina
5: Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, Miami (FL)
6: St. Mary's, Wichita State, Florida State, Seton Hall
7: Gonzaga, Alabama, Creighton, Ohio State
8: Nevada, Texas, Butler, Providence
9: Missouri, Michigan, TCU, Washington
10: Arizona State, Louisville, Texas A&M, Arkansas
11: Houston, Middle Tennessee, USC, (North Carolina State/LSU)
12: (Georgia/Kansas State), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Louisiana
13: Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee State, Montana
14: Northern Kentucky, Belmont, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (UNC Asheville/Nicholls State), (North Carolina A&T/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Boise State, St. Bonaventure, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, South Carolina, SMU, Utah

In Consideration: Oklahoma State, New Mexico State, UCLA, Loyola Chicago, Marquette, Western Kentucky, Nebraska, Maryland, Louisiana
On the Brink: BYU, Temple, Colorado, Buffalo, Notre Dame, Oregon, UCF, Baylor, Boston College

Moving In: LSU, Belmont, Charleston, Penn, Nicholls State, Arkansas Pine Bluff
Moving Out: Boise State, Murray State, Northeastern, Princeton, Stephen F. Austin, Texas Southern

Monday, February 5, 2018

Bracketology 2/5/18

A huge weekend sees many changes- headlined by a new #1 seed: Auburn. With both Kansas and Duke losing, I had lots of  options at the end of the 1-line, but Auburn has such a depth of quality wins that I chose them over Xavier and Kansas.

I also re-evaluated every team's resume yesterday, and there's a lot of moves during that. Some teams (such as Duke, Ohio State and TCU) have less meat on their resume than I realized, while others (such as Rhode Island, Alabama and Washington) have more.



1: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Auburn
2: Xavier, Kansas, Cincinnati, Clemson
3: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Michigan State, Duke
4: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, North Carolina
5: West Virginia, Arizona, Florida, Miami (FL)
6: St. Mary's, Wichita State, Florida State, Seton Hall
7: Gonzaga, Alabama, Creighton, Ohio State
8: Nevada, Texas, Butler, Louisville
9: Providence, Missouri, Michigan, TCU
10: Washington, Arizona State, Texas A&M, Arkansas
11: Houston, Middle Tennessee, USC, (North Carolina State/LSU)
12: (Georgia/Kansas State), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Louisiana
13: Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee State, Montana
14: Northern Kentucky, Belmont, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (UNC Asheville/Nicholls State), (North Carolina A&T/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Boise State, St. Bonaventure, Mississippi State
Next Four Out: South Carolina, SMU, Utah, Oklahoma State

In Consideration: New Mexico State, Syracuse, UCLA, Loyola Chicago, Marquette, Western Kentucky, Nebraska, Maryland, Louisiana
On the Brink: BYU, Temple, Colorado, Buffalo, Notre Dame, Oregon, UCF, Baylor, Boston College

Moving In: LSU, Belmont, Charleston, Penn, Nicholls State, Arkansas Pine Bluff
Moving Out: Boise State, Murray State, Northeastern, Princeton, Stephen F. Austin, Texas Southern

Saturday, February 3, 2018

Bracketology 2/3/18

Utah lost a tough one at Colorado and is now a long way from the field, while Rhode Island is nearing protected seed status as they continue to romp through the A-10. Today is huge throughout the bracket, enjoy what will promise to be one of the best days of college hoops of the year.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas
2: Duke, Xavier, Clemson, Auburn
3: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Texas Tech
4: Arizona, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia
5: Seton Hall, Rhode Island, North Carolina, Miami (FL)
6: Ohio State, TCU, Florida, Wichita State
7: Creighton, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Texas
8: Nevada, Butler, Texas A&M, Michigan
9: Louisville, Arizona State, Arkansas, Florida State
10: Alabama, Providence, Kansas State, Missouri
11: North Carolina State, Washington, Middle Tennessee, (USC/Georgia)
12: (Houston/Boise State), New Mexico State, Louisiana, East Tennessee State
13: Loyola Chicago, Murray State, Vermont, Montana
14: Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Northeastern, Princeton, Stephen F. Austin
16: Rider, Florida Gulf Coast, (Wagner/UNC Asheville), (Texas Southern/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Western Kentucky, Syracuse, Marquette
Next Four Out: LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, SMU
Also Considered: Notre Dame, Temple, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, New Mexico State, Utah, Penn State, Oregon, Baylor, St. Bonaventure, Maryland

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None

Bids by Conference:
SEC: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 4
American: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2

Friday, February 2, 2018

Bracketology 2/2/18

Relatively quiet night- Washington moves into the field for the first time all season with a win over Arizona State, and Temple moves into consideration with a win over Wichita State. Utah and Rhode Island have deceptively tricky road games tonight, and then a packed Saturday awaits.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas
2: Duke, Xavier, Clemson, Auburn
3: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Texas Tech
4: Arizona, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia
5: Seton Hall, North Carolina, Rhode Island, Miami (FL)
6: Ohio State, TCU, Florida, Wichita State
7: Creighton, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Texas
8: Nevada, Butler, Texas A&M, Michigan
9: Louisville, Arizona State, Arkansas, Florida State
10: Alabama, Providence, Kansas State, Missouri
11: North Carolina State, Washington, Middle Tennessee, (USC/Georgia)
12: (Houston/Boise State), New Mexico State, Louisiana, East Tennessee State
13: Loyola Chicago, Murray State, Vermont, Montana
14: Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Northeastern, Princeton, Stephen F. Austin
16: Rider, Florida Gulf Coast, (Wagner/UNC Asheville), (Texas Southern/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Western Kentucky, Syracuse, Marquette
Next Four Out: LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, SMU
Also Considered: Utah, Notre Dame, Temple, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, New Mexico State, Penn State, Oregon, Baylor, St. Bonaventure, Maryland

Moving In: Washington, UNC Asheville
Moving Out: Virginia Tech, Winthrop

Bids by Conference:
SEC: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 4
American: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, February 1, 2018

Bracketology 2/1/18

Lots of bubble action last night, as Marquette, South Carolina and Houston all missed big opportunities for wins. West Virginia lost in Ames to fall to 5-4 in the Big 12 and is danger of losing a protected seed. Huge game tonight in the Pac-12 as Arizona State takes on Washington- the Huskies would move into the field with a win, which would send Arizona State closer to the bubble.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas
2: Duke, Xavier, Clemson, Auburn
3: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Texas Tech
4: Arizona, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia
5: Seton Hall, North Carolina, Rhode Island, Wichita State
6: Miami (FL), Ohio State, TCU, Florida
7: Creighton, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Arizona State
8: Texas, Nevada, Butler, Texas A&M
9: Michigan, Louisville, Arkansas, Florida State
10: Alabama, Providence, Kansas State, Missouri
11: North Carolina State, USC, (Georgia/Houston), (Boise State/Virginia Tech)
12: Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Louisiana, East Tennessee State
13: Loyola Chicago, Murray State, Vermont, Montana
14: Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Northeastern, Princeton, Stephen F. Austin
16: Rider, Florida Gulf Coast, (Winthrop/Wagner), (Texas Southern/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Washington, SMU, Western Kentucky, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Marquette, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Also Considered: Utah, Notre Dame, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, New Mexico State, Penn State, Oregon, Baylor, St. Bonaventure, Maryland

Moving In: Virginia Tech
Moving Out: Marquette

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
SEC: 9
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Bracketology 1/31/18

Georgia got a nice win at home against Florida to move them into the field. North Carolina is out of the protected seeds for the first time all season in the wake of their 3-game skid, although a home date with Pittsburgh on Saturday should allow the Tar Heels to snap out of the skid. Tonight, I'll be keeping my eye on Butler @ Marquette. With 70% of the Big East in the field, it's going to be a struggle for bubble teams like these two to rack up wins.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas
2: Duke, Xavier, Clemson, Auburn
3: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Michigan State
4: Texas Tech, Arizona, Tennessee, Kentucky
5: Seton Hall, North Carolina, Rhode Island, Wichita State
6: Miami (FL), Ohio State, TCU, Florida
7: Creighton, Texas, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
8: Arizona State, Florida State, Nevada, Alabama
9: Texas A&M, Michigan, Louisville, Providence
10: Arkansas, Butler, Kansas State, North Carolina State
11: Houston, USC, (Georgia/Boise State), Middle Tennessee
12: (Missouri/Marquette), New Mexico State, Louisiana, Loyola Chicago
13: East Tennessee State, Murray State, Vermont, Montana
14: Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Northeastern, Princeton, Stephen F. Austin
16: Rider, Florida Gulf Coast, (Winthrop/Wagner), (Texas Southern/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, LSU
Next Four Out: Washington, SMU, Western Kentucky, Utah
Also Considered: Notre Dame, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, New Mexico State, Mississippi State, Penn State, Oregon, Baylor, St. Bonaventure, Maryland

Moving In: Georgia, Rider
Moving Out: LSU, Iona

Bids by Conference:
SEC: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2

Monday, January 29, 2018

Bracketology 1/29/18

The biggest bubble result of the weekend was North Carolina State's victory in Chapel Hill. The Wolfpack vault into the bracket as a 10 seed. Elsewhere, Duke's loss to Virginia puts Kansas on the 1 line.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas
2: Duke, Xavier, Auburn, Clemson
3: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Michigan State
4: Texas Tech, Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee
5: Kentucky, Seton Hall, Florida, Rhode Island
6: Wichita State, Miami (FL), Arizona State, Creighton
7: Texas, TCU, St. Mary's, Ohio State
8: Gonzaga, Florida State, Nevada, Alabama
9: Arkansas, Michigan, Louisville, Kansas State
10: Providence, Texas A&M, Butler, North Carolina State
11: Houston, USC, Middle Tennessee, (Boise State/LSU)
12: (Missouri/Marquette), New Mexico State, Louisiana, Loyola Chicago
13: East Tennessee State, Murray State, Vermont, Buffalo
14: Montana, Northern Kentucky, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Northeastern, Iona, Princeton
16: Stephen F. Austin, Florida Gulf Coast, (Winthrop/Wagner), (Texas Southern/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Georgia, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Washington
Next Four Out: SMU, Western Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Syracuse
Also Considered: Notre Dame, Utah, UCLA, New Mexico State, Mississippi State, Penn State, Baylor, Oregon, St. Bonaventure, Maryland

Moving In: North Carolina State, South Dakota State, Iona, Stephen F. Austin, North Carolina A&T, Texas Southern
Moving Out: Western Kentucky, South Dakota, Canisius, Nicholls State, Bethune Cookman, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Friday, January 26, 2018

Bracketology 1/26/18

The most surprising result of the night was Penn State winning in Columbus, handing Ohio State their first loss in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes only have two wins over tournament teams, both on their home court, so the addition of a tier 3 loss drops them from a 5 to a 7.

Elsewhere, Utah won in Tempe, moving the Utes closer to the field and dropping Arizona State. With how weak the Pac-12 is, it'll be difficult for the Sun Devils to fight their way back up to a protected seed.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Xavier, Kansas, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
3: West Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, Auburn
4: Texas Tech, Arizona, Michigan State, Seton Hall
5: TCU, Miami (FL), Creighton, Tennessee
6: Florida, Rhode Island, Wichita State, Arizona State
7: Texas, Kentucky, St. Mary's, Ohio State
8: Gonzaga, Nevada, Michigan, Louisville
9: Providence, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Florida State
10: Butler, Kansas State, Houston, Alabama
11: USC, Boise State, (Missouri/Marquette), (Middle Tennessee/LSU)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Louisiana, Murray State
13: East Tennessee State, Northern Kentucky, Vermont, South Dakota
14: Buffalo, Loyola Chicago, Montana, UC Santa Barbara
15: Northeastern, Bucknell, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Canisius, Winthrop, (Wagner/Nicholls State), (Bethune Cookman/Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Georgia, South Carolina, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out: North Carolina State, Utah, SMU, Syracuse
Also Considered: Virginia Tech, Washington, Western Kentucky, Baylor, UCLA, New Mexico State, Penn State, Oregon, Maryland, St. Bonaventure, Mississippi State

Moving In: LSU
Moving Out: SMU
Removed from Consideration: Colorado, UCF, BYU

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Bracketology 1/25/18

The biggest surprise last night was South Carolina's win at Florida. The Gamecocks are now in the First Four Out, where they're joined by fellow SEC teams LSU and Georgia. In addition to those 3, the SEC has 8 teams in this bracket. Mississippi and Vanderbilt are the only teams in the conference not in bracket consideration.

Out west, Nevada fell at Wyoming last night in a double-OT thriller. I was prepared to move the Wolfpack down quite a bit, only to realize that Wyoming's RPI was a shockingly high 58 and so it counts as a tier 1 loss. Thus, Nevada remains in the top half of the bracket.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Xavier, Kansas, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
3: West Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, Auburn
4: Texas Tech, Arizona, Michigan State, Arizona State
5: Seton Hall, TCU, Ohio State, Miami (FL)
6: Creighton, Tennessee, Florida, Rhode Island
7: Wichita State, Texas, Kentucky, Gonzaga
8: St. Mary's, Michigan, Nevada, Louisville
9: Providence, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Florida State
10: Butler, Kansas State, Houston, Alabama
11: USC, Boise State, (Missouri/Marquette), (SMU/Middle Tennessee)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Louisiana, Murray State
13: East Tennessee State, Northern Kentucky, Vermont, South Dakota
14: Buffalo, Loyola Chicago, Montana, UC Santa Barbara
15: Northeastern, Bucknell, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Canisius, Winthrop, (Wagner/Nicholls State), (Bethune Cookman/Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, North Carolina State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Also Considered: Washington, Western Kentucky, Baylor, UCLA, Utah, New Mexico State, Oregon, BYU, Maryland, St. Bonaventure, UCF, Colorado, Mississippi State

Moving In: Middle Tennessee, South Dakota, Nicholls State
Moving Out: Georgia, South Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin

Monday, January 22, 2018

Bracketology 1/23/18

Kansas State got a big win at Baylor to propel them to 4-3 in the Big 12. The Wildcats are a 10 seed now, they're held down by an abysmal non-conference schedule whose best result is a win at Vanderbilt, the worst team in the SEC. Kansas @ Oklahoma will be fascinating tonight, but the bubble action will be in the SEC as Texas A&M travels to Baton Rouge and Arkansas goes to Athens.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Kansas, Xavier, Oklahoma, Clemson
3: Cincinnati, West Virginia, North Carolina, Texas Tech
4: Auburn, Arizona, Michigan State, Florida
5: Arizona State, Seton Hall, TCU, Ohio State
6: Creighton, Tennessee, Miami (FL), Rhode Island
7: Wichita State, Nevada, Texas, Louisville
8: Gonzaga, Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Kentucky
9: Providence, Michigan, Alabama, Florida State
10: Butler, Kansas State, Missouri, Houston
11: Arkansas, Georgia, (USC/Marquette), (Boise State/SMU)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Louisiana, Murray State
13: East Tennessee State, Northern Kentucky, Vermont, Buffalo
14: South Dakota State, Loyola Chicago, Montana, UC Santa Barbara
15: Northeastern, Bucknell, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Stephen F. Austin, Canisius, (Winthrop/Wagner), (Bethune Cookman/Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, North Carolina State
Next Four Out: Syracuse, LSU, Virginia Tech, Washington
Also Considered: Western Kentucky, Baylor, UCLA, South Carolina, Utah, New Mexico State, Oregon, BYU, Maryland, St. Bonaventure, Mississippi State, Minnesota, UCF, Colorado

Moving In: Bethune Cookman, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Moving Out: North Carolina A&T, Texas Southern

Bracketology 1/22/17

Another busy weekend has changes all throughout the bracket. At the bubble, Houston is the biggest winner as they got a huge win against Wichita State to propel them into the field. The American now has 4 teams in, as many as the Big Ten and more than the Pac-12. The Atlantic 10 is continuing their worst year in memory, as St. Bonaventure dropped their second game in a row. Rhode Island looks quite safe but to have a conference as perennially strong as the A-10 looking like a 1-bid league is striking.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Kansas, West Virginia, Xavier, North Carolina
3: Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Clemson, Texas Tech
4: Auburn, Arizona, Michigan State, Florida
5: Arizona State, Seton Hall, Ohio State, Creighton
6: Tennessee, Miami (FL), TCU, Rhode Island
7: Wichita State, Nevada, Texas, Louisville
8: Gonzaga, Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Kentucky
9: Providence, Michigan, Alabama, Florida State
10: Butler, Missouri, Houston, Arkansas
11: Georgia, USC, (Marquette/Kansas State), (Boise State/SMU)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Louisiana, Murray State
13: East Tennessee State, Northern Kentucky, Vermont, Buffalo
14: South Dakota State, Loyola Chicago, Montana, UC Santa Barbara
15: Northeastern, Bucknell, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Stephen F. Austin, Canisius (Winthrop/Wagner), (Texas Southern/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: North Carolina State, Syracuse, LSU, Washington
Also Considered: Western Kentucky, UCLA, South Carolina, Utah, New Mexico State, Oregon, BYU, Virginia Tech, Maryland, St. Bonaventure, Mississippi State, Minnesota, UCF, Colorado

Moving In: Houston, Kansas State, Loyola Chicago, Northeastern, Murray State, Winthrop, Canisius, Wagner, North Carolina A&T
Moving Out: Notre Dame, Baylor, Missouri State, Towson, Belmont, Radford, Iona, Robert Morris, Hampton

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Bracketology 1/18/18

The Big 12 cannibalism continues as Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech all lost. I think that the conference could be won at 13-5 or maybe even worse. The biggest bubble game in the last few days was SMU picking up a huge win in Wichita, which moves them into the bracket.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Kansas, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Xavier
3: North Carolina, Texas Tech, Seton Hall, Clemson
4: Auburn, Cincinnati, Creighton, Michigan State
5: Arizona, TCU, Arizona State, Ohio State
6: Wichita State, Florida State, Rhode Island, Texas
7: Tennessee, Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Kentucky
8: Michigan, Louisville, Nevada, Missouri
9: Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, Butler
10: Arkansas, St. Mary's, Providence, Boise State
11: Marquette, Florida State, (UCLA/Notre Dame), (SMU/Baylor)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Missouri State, East Tennessee State
13: Murray State, Northern Kentucky, Louisiana, Vermont
14: South Dakota State, Montana, Buffalo, Towson
15: Bucknell, Princeton, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
16: Florida Gulf Coast, UC Davis, (Radford/Robert Morris), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: LSU, Syracuse, USC, North Carolina State
Next Four Out: South Carolina, Houston, Western Kentucky, Kansas State
Also Considered: St. Bonaventure, Washington, Middle Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Utah, BYU, Mississippi State, Maryland, New Mexico State, Missouri State, San Diego State, Oregon, St. John's, UCF

Moving In: Baylor, SMU
Moving Out: Houston, LSU

SEC: 9
ACC: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Bracketology 1/15/18

Most of my update are just tweaks on the previous day's bracket, but today I re-did the whole thing top to bottom. This leads to a lot of changes throughout- major beneficiaries include Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Marquette and LSU while Michigan State, Florida State, Baylor and Maryland are among those hurt by it. The 2-line is all Big 12 teams right now, as those teams beat up on each other some will fall a bit while one or two will make a run at a 1 seed.

However, the biggest headline has to be the presence of 10 SEC teams in the bracket. While the Big 12 is the best conference in the country, the SEC scheduled well in the non-conference and the middle of the conference is exceptionally strong.

I'm going to update more often from here on out- probably 5 days a week or so. Expect daily updates beginning in February.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas, Texas Tech
3: Seton Hall, Auburn, Clemson, Xavier
4: North Carolina, Wichita State, Arizona State, Arizona
5: Michigan State, Cincinnati, TCU, Tennessee
6: Kentucky, Miami (FL), Creighton, Rhode Island
7: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Florida, Michigan
8: Butler, Texas, Arkansas, Nevada
9: Texas A&M, Missouri, Louisville, Florida State
10: Alabama, St. Mary's, Boise State, Notre Dame
11: Marquette, LSU, (Georgia/Houston), (UCLA/Providence)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Missouri State, East Tennessee State
13: Murray State, Northern Kentucky, Louisiana, Vermont
14: South Dakota State, Montana, Buffalo, Towson
15: Bucknell, Princeton, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
16: Florida Gulf Coast, UC Davis, (Radford/Robert Morris), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: Syracuse, USC, North Carolina State, Baylor
Next Four Out: Western Kentucky, St. Bonaventure, Washington, Oklahoma State
Also Considered: Middle Tennessee, Virginia Tech, SMU, San Diego State, South Carolina, Colorado, Utah, Maryland, BYU, Mississippi State, Kansas State, New Mexico State, Minnesota, UCF, Missouri State, Oregon, Penn State, St. John's

Moving In: Marquette, Providence, LSU, Georgia, Western Kentucky, Towson, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast, UC Davis, Radford, Robert Morris
Moving Out: Maryland, Kansas State, Syracuse, Baylor, Middle Tennessee, Northeastern, Penn, Lipscomb, UC Santa Barbara, UNC Asheville, St. Francis (PA)

SEC: 10
ACC: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Bracketology 1/11/18

The most surprising result since my last update is Ohio State's drubbing of Michigan State in Columbus. That drops the Spartans down to a 2, and moves Ohio State safely into the field. Villanova demolished Xavier to cement their place as a 1. Last night, TCU fell to Texas- TCU remains a 5 seed despite now being 1-3 in the Big 12.

Speaking of the Big 12, one number I like to keep my eye on is conference record. No team with a conference record of 7-11 or worse has ever made the tournament- although the Big 12 is so deep this year that I could see say, Baylor or Texas making it this year at 7-11 in the conference.

1: Villanova, West Virginia, Virginia, Duke
2: Oklahoma, Michigan State, Purdue, Kansas
3: Arizona, Texas Tech, North Carolina, Arizona State
4: Auburn, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Wichita State
5: TCU, Creighton, Xavier, Seton Hall
6: Gonzaga, Florida, Miami (FL), Clemson
7: Tennessee, Texas, Arkansas, Texas A&M
8: Florida State, Michigan, Butler, Rhode Island
9: Ohio State, Notre Dame, Missouri, St. Mary's
10: Nevada, UCLA, Boise State, Alabama
11: Baylor, Louisville, (Houston/Syracuse), (Maryland/Kansas State)
12: Middle Tennessee, Vermont, Northern Kentucky, New Mexico State
13: Missouri State, East Tennessee State, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Louisiana, Montana, Bucknell, Northeastern
15: Buffalo, UC Santa Barbara, Lipscomb, Iona
16: Stephen F. Austin, Penn, (UNC Asheville/St. Francis (PA)), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: SMU, St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, Marquette
Next Four Out: Washington, Utah, Temple, Providence
Also Considered: Middle Tennessee, USC, LSU, UCF, Georgia, San Diego State, Mississippi State, Minnesota, Oregon, St. John's, Penn State, BYU, Vermont, Northwestern, Old Dominion, Northern Kentucky, Boston College, New Mexico State, Oklahoma State, Western Kentucky, South Carolina

Moving In: Ohio State, Louisville, Kansas State
Moving Out: Utah, St. Bonaventure, SMU

Sunday, January 7, 2018

Bracketology 1/7/18

4 of the top 8 teams in my last seed list (Duke, Oklahoma, Arizona and Xavier) lost yesterday, leading to a lot of upheaval at the top of the seed list. This is reflected in two new 1 seeds (West Virginia and Virginia) and two new 2 seeds (Kansas and Purdue). Auburn joins the ranks of the protected seeds with a big win over Arkansas and is now projected to win the SEC. However, other SEC teams like Tennessee and Alabama are sliding. It was also a bad day for mid-major at-large bids: Boise State lost at Wyoming and St. Bonaventure lost at St. Joseph's.

1: Michigan State, Villanova, West Virginia, Virginia
2: Duke, Kansas, Oklahoma, Purdue
3: Texas Tech, Arizona, Seton Hall, Xavier
4: TCU, North Carolina, Auburn, Arizona State
5: Wichita State, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Arkansas
6: Creighton, Florida State, Florida, Gonzaga
7: Clemson, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Missouri
8: Notre Dame, Michigan, Butler, Miami (FL)
9: SMU, Rhode Island, Texas, St. Mary's
10: Nevada, UCLA, Baylor, Alabama
11: Houston, Boise State, (Syracuse/Utah), (Maryland/St. Bonaventure)
12: Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, Vermont, Northern Kentucky
13: New Mexico State, East Tennessee State, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Louisiana-Lafayette, Montana, Bucknell, Northeastern
15: Buffalo, UC Santa Barbara, Lipscomb, Iona
16: Stephen F. Austin, Penn, (UNC Asheville/St. Francis (PA)), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: Ohio State, Washington, Providence, Kansas State
Next Four Out: Louisvillle, Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, USC
Also Considered: UCF, Georgia, St. John's, Minnesota, Marquette, Penn State, Mississippi State, Temple, San Diego State, Missouri State, Oregon, BYU, Vermont, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Boston College, Northern Kentucky, New Mexico State, Western Kentucky, South Carolina, Northwestern

Moving In: Northeastern, Penn
Moving Out: Charleston, Princeton

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Bracketology 1/4/18

Lots of changes in the first seed list of 2018. Oklahoma moves up to the 1-line, but I doubt they stay there. The Big 12 is so deep that every team in the league will probably pick up at least 4 or 5 losses in the conference, hindering any one team's chance at a 1. Elsewhere, lots of teams close to the cut-line got important wins, Butler beat Villanova, St. Mary's beat BYU, and Utah swept the Oregon trip, among others.

It is continuing to look like a weak year for mid-major at-large teams. If you define mid-majors as teams outside the 7 biggest conferences and Gonzaga, there's only 2 mid-major at-large teams in the field. Part of this is certainly due to the successful mid-majors moving up over recent years (Butler, Xavier, Creighton, Wichita State etc.) but this year is missing the successful Murray States and Southern Illinois of years past.

1: Duke, Michigan State, Villanova, Oklahoma
2: West Virginia, Virginia, Xavier, Arizona State
3: Arizona, Purdue, Kansas, Texas Tech
4: TCU, North Carolina, Arkansas, Seton Hall
5: Kentucky, Wichita State, Texas A&M, Cincinnati
6: Auburn, Missouri, Florida State, SMU
7: Creighton, Gonzaga, Florida, Tennessee
8: Butler, Michigan, Clemson, Miami (FL)
9: Texas, Alabama, Rhode Island, Notre Dame
10: Boise State, UCLA, St. Mary's, Nevada
11: Syracuse, Houston, (Utah/Maryland), (Baylor/Minnesota)
12: Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Vermont
13: Northern Kentucky, East Tennessee State, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Louisiana-Lafayette, Charleston, Montana, Bucknell
15: UC Santa Barbara, Buffalo, Princeton, Lipscomb
16: Iona, Stephen F. Austin, (UNC Asheville/St. Francis (PA)), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: Louisville, St. John's, Kansas State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Ohio State, St. Bonaventure, USC
Also Considered: UCF, Marquette, Mississippi State, Temple, Providence, Oregon, BYU, San Diego State, Georgia, Penn State, Vermont, Old Dominion, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Washington, Oklahoma State, UNLV, South Carolina, Boston College

Moving In: Houston, St. Mary's, Utah, Missouri State, South Dakota State, Charleston, Buffalo, Montana, Liberty
Moving Out: Virginia Tech, St. John's, Louisville, Northern Iowa, South Dakota, Towson, Ball State, Idaho, UNC Asheville