Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Pick Tracker Update: November 28, and Bankroll Management

OK guys, I've decided to set up a set bankroll and way I'm making my picks. Don't forget all my picks are entirely fictitious, I never actually make picks with real money. My complete and utter lack of bankroll management hasn't bitten me yet, considering all the good weeks I've been having. However, I'm going to start managing my bankroll now. Here's a quick summary:
1) My bankroll is going to be $10,000, mainly because I already have been using $100 as a unit, and 1 unit is 1% of the bankroll
2) My NBA Picks will likely be getting more units now, shifting to a 0.8/1/1.5 unit system
3) My NFL Picks will likely be getting less units now. What was once a 4 unit picks is now going to be about a 3 unit pick in how confident I feel. Here's a quick breakdown:
Used to be 1 unit pick, now 0.8
Used to be 2 unit pick, now 1.5
Used to be 3 unit pick, now 2.5
Used to be 4 unit pick, now 3
And now, I'm going to be updating my pick tracker to see how I'm doing at the end of each month. Here's my pick tracker, updated through November 28:

All Picks:
+$2234 (+22.34 units)

NFL Picks Week 7 2012: +$1105 (+11.05 units)
NFL Picks Week 8 2012: -$1150 (-11.5 units)
NFL Picks Week 9 2012: +$1162 (+11.62 units)
NFL Picks Week 10 2012: +$580 (+5.8 units)
NFL Picks Week 11 2012: +$8 (+0.08 units)
NFL Picks Week 12 2012: +$129 (+1.29 units)

NFL 2012: +$1834 (+18.34 units)

NBA Oct+Early Nov: -$160 (-1.6 units)
NBA Late Nov: +$95 (+0.95 units)

NBA 2012-13: -$65 (-0.65 units)

Other Sports Picks Page:
Other Sports Picks 2012: +$465 (+4.65 units)

Monday, November 26, 2012

College Football Power Ratings: Week 13

Here's my computer's top 25 for the week. I'm trying out a new wrinkle to my system which I may release an article on later this week, but I haven't implemented it yet. Eerily, my top 5 is the same as the BCS standings.
1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Florida
5. Oregon
6. Oklahoma
7. South Carolina
8. Texas A&M
9. Stanford
10. LSU
11. Kansas State
12. Oklahoma State
13. Ohio State
14. Nebraska
15. Florida State
16. Clemson
17. Texas
18. Baylor
19. Oregon State
20. Michigan
21. USC
22. TCU
23. Penn State
24. UCLA
25. Vanderbilt

That's all for now!

Thursday, November 22, 2012

NFL Picks Week 12

Game 1: Detroit @ Houston +3.5
Oh, it's my favorite Thanksgiving tradition! Watching my Lions get massacred while I eat turkey and stuffing. The Lions will be missing left tackle Jeff Sackus, but Louis Delmas will be back. Both are good news for the Lions in my opinion. The Texans are having to travel on a short week after an overtime game, a recipe for disaster. I think Stafford will prove himself this year.
Detroit +3.5 (1 unit) +$100
Over 48.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Washington @ Dallas -3.5
The 'Skins, in my opinion, are one of the more underrated teams in the league. They have a host of losses to good teams and none really to bad teams. Dallas is pretty underrated as well right now, this spread should not have moved 3 points after the Cleveland game. I'll take Dallas for 0.
Dallas -3.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 48 (0 units) -$0
Game 3: New England @ New York Jets +7
The Pats are on a roll, and they haven't lost since the second week of October. However, what most people are talking about is the absence of Rob Gronkowski. However, this is not nearly as big a deal as people are making it out to be. Aaron Hernandez is quite a suitable replacement (who I picked up in Fantasy!). The Jets have only one good win against Indianapolis. I'll put 2 units on NE because of the Gronk overreaction.
New England -7 (2 units) +$200
Over 48 (0 units) +$0
Game 4: Oakland @ Cincinnati -8.5
Sorry I'm getting these picks out so late this week, because of the holiday I can't do them on the train to work as usual. Going to go with some shorter write-ups because of that. Oakland has been pretty pitiful as of late, with blowout losses to Tampa Bay, Baltimore and New Orleans in their last few games. The Bengals are pretty overrated, as most people don't realize they lost to Cleveland and Miami in the not so distant past. Carson Palmer may be familiar with Cincy's system, I'll lay a unit on Oakland. I'll put half a unit on the under because neither offense is that good.
Oakland +8.5 (1 unit) -$110
Under 50 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 5: Pittsburgh @ Cleveland +1.5
As I was flipping through the Steelers' results as I research this pick, I noticed that they've had a total over 50 just once this whole year (that fluke loss to the Raiders). The Browns are actually playing respectable football as of late, with no bad losses since Buffalo in week 3. Remember how I said last week that I like picking good teams without their starting quarterback? Well, I'm still picking Pittsburgh because of that, but only for 2 units because Charlie Batch is a whole new level of suck.
Pittsburgh -1.5 (2 units) -$220
Under 34.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 6: Buffalo @ Indianapolis -3
Buffalo is a strange team to get a read on. I'd have to put them at about 35th percentile. They have close games against comparable teams (Arizona, Tennessee, Miami) and beat teams they should've beaten (Kansas City, Cleveland). However, the public is completely overreacting to Indianapolis' loss to the Pats last week. They're a solid team coming off a spread loss of 25, which is normally a good situation. I like Indy for 4.
Indianapolis -3 (4 units) +$400
Under 51 (0 units) +$0
Game 7: Denver @ Kansas City +10.5
Ouch, 10.5 point road favorite? That's no joke. The Chiefs are easily the worst team in the NFL, and it's a miracle they even beat New Orleans. The real question is whether or not the Broncos are going to show up for this game, as they have a three game cushion in the AFC West. I really don't think that they'll show up, but then again the Chiefs have Brady Quinn. I really don't like either side with this huge spread.
Kansas City +10.5 (0 units) +$0
Over 44 (0 units) -$0
Game 8: Tennessee @ Jacksonville +3.5
The psychology of this game is definitely the most interesting factor. The Titans have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and every game is crucial for them to get into the playoffs. They shouldn't be phased by being a road favorite, they've beaten bad teams on the road recently. On the other side of the coin, the Jags are likely going to be completely devastated after their heartbreaking OT loss to Houston. I'll lay 3 units on Tennessee. I'll lay half a unit on the under with Jake Locker and Chad Henne under center.
Tennessee -3.5 (3 units) -$330
Under 44.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 9: Minnesota @ Chicago -6.5
Well, many people said that the San Francisco and Houston games would tell us whether or not the Bears were a legit Super Bowl contender. It appears that they've been relegated to a fringe contender. Unlike the Cardinals, the Vikings have kept the surprise team label going deep into the season. However, they still have 2 games against each the Bears and the Packers as well as a game against Houston. Chicago is coming off a hectic loss and is slipping, while the Vikings have had 2 weeks to focus. I like Minny for 4 units. I'm also putting a unit on the over, as Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte are both quite good.
Unit Change: I'm halving this pick. Not liking Minny as much.
Minnesota +6.5 (2 units) -$220
Over 39 (1 unit) -$110
Game 10: Atlanta @ Tampa Bay +1.5
The Buccaneers have really done a good job debunking the "Terrible Triangle" theory I created about a month ago, with 4 straight wins. I'm sure you've probably heard this stat, but the Falcons have 1 win over a team with a winning record all year (which, I might add is the same number the Bucs have). I don't think Atlanta is 4 points better than Tampa Bay, they're pretty comparable and Atlanta has struggled recently. I like Tampa Bay for 4 units.
Tampa Bay +1.5 (4 units) +$400
Over 51 (0 units) -$0
Game 11: Seattle @ Miami +3
One thing I doubt most people realize about the Seahawks is their fascinating home/road split. They have won each of their home games and lost each of their road games with the one exception of a game at the pitiful Panthers. Miami has had about 11 days to prepare for this contest, and I think they'll be focused because they know they have to win it to make the playoffs. However, I'm not putting too much faith in Ryan Tannehill.
Miami +3 (1 unit) +$100
Over 37.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 12: Baltimore @ San Diego +1
The Chargers are still the slump sparked by the heartbreaking loss to Denver a few Mondays back. The Norv Turner factor is most definitely alive and well. I'm not sure what to think of them here. Vegas says that the Ravens are 5 points better than San Diego (translate 4 points for moving across the country) and that Denver was 5.5 points better than San Diego last week. I think that Denver is probably 4 points or so better than Baltimore, so I'll put a unit on San Diego.
San Diego +1 (1 unit) -$110
Under 47 (0 units) +$0
Game 13: San Francisco @ New Orleans +1
This game immediately stuck out at me when I looked at the lines on Tuesday, because of Colin Kaepernick. I am floored that the Saints are getting more action than the 49ers considering the way Kaepernick played on Monday Night against a stellar Bears defense. However, he has to play in the Superdome this time against a rejuvenated Saints team. Call me a bandwagoner, but I think the 49ers may be the best teams in the NFC. I'll curb my play to 2 units because of the unfamiliarity.
San Francisco -1 (2 units) +$200
Under 49.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 14: Saint Louis @ Arizona -1.5
OK, hold up. A team with Ryan Lindell as their starting quarterback is favored? Oh wait, Ryan Lindley, but same difference. The Rams are not so pitiful that a 3rd string quarterback on a team that has lost 6 in a row should be favored against them. The Rams aren't doing so hot either aside from the tie with the 49ers, but I'm going with Saint Louis for 4 units. These teams are about equal with their starting quarterbacks in.
Saint Louis +1.5 (4 units) +$400
Under 37 (0 units) -$0
Game 15: Green Bay @ New York Giants -3
The Packers are on fire and have at least pushed +3 nine weeks in a row. That row of nine teams includes the like of the Texans, Seahawks, Bears, Colts and the Lions. Pretty impressive. I think that the Packers and the 49ers are the 2 best teams in the NFC. The big question here is whether the Giants will start their late season surge now, or in a week or two. I'm going to guess they still have a little bit before the surge considering that they're 1.5 up in the East. GB for 2.
Green Bay +3 (2 units) -$220
Under 51 (0 units) +$0
Game 16: Carolina @ Philadelphia +3
Oh my, who scheduled this stinkfest for Monday Night Football? The Eagles have been the definition of pitiful ever since those lucky opening wins, and Michael Vick is out and Nick Foles is starting. Normally this would help the Eagles' case, but Foles has looked awful. I'm not comfortable betting the Panthers as road favorites, but I think they're the right side here. I'm staying away with a 10-foot pole.
Carolina -3 (0 units) +$0
Under 40.5 (0 units) -$0

Teaser: Tennessee +2.5, Indianapolis +3 (2.5 units) -$275
Moneyline: Oakland +345 (0.6 units) -$66
Pleaser: Saint Louis -4.5, Green Bay -3 (Ties win) +550 (1 unit) -$110

NFL Picks Week 12: +$129
NFL Picks 2012: +$1834

Monday, November 19, 2012

College Football Power Ratings Week 12

And Notre Dame steals the number one spot from the Tide! The Tide lost the customary 5% of their rating for playing an FCS squad, and Notre Dame took 100% of the pot against Wake Forest, leading to the takeover at #1. Here's my computer's top 25:
1. Notre Dame 131
2. Alabama 129
3. Georgia 119
4. Oklahoma 108
5. Florida 106
6. Oregon 101
7. Florida State 95
8. South Carolina 95
9. Texas 94
10. Clemson 93
11. LSU 93
12. Kansas State 91
13. Oklahoma State 90
14. Texas A&M 90
15. Nebraska 88
16. Ohio State 87
17. Stanford 83
18. Oregon State 79
19. Rutgers 76
20. UCLA 75
21. Baylor 73
22. USC 72
23. Michigan 68
24. Penn State 62
25. Wisconsin 62

That's all for now!

Friday, November 16, 2012

NBA Picks Late November

NBA Picks 2012-13: -$205
Phoenix @ Toronto -3
Overreaction to the Suns' loss yesterday.
Phoenix +3 (0.5 units) -$55
Brooklyn @ Orlando +4.5
The Nets remain underrated, somehow.
Brooklyn -4.5 (0.8 units) +$80
Portland @ Washington +3
I will continue to fade the god-awful Wizards.
Portland -3 (1 unit) -$110
Phoenix @ Detroit -3.5
The Suns are far better than people give them credit for.
Pheonix +3.5 (0.5 units) -$55

I'm going to be making picks of either 0.5, 0.8 or 1 units for the foreseeable future. I'm developing a system.
Toronto @ Houston -6
The Rockets have made a believer out of me.
Houston -6 (0.8 units) +$80

Considered the Spurs, but I got no play tonight.

I'm going to be generally placing more units now as I'm getting a feel for NBA lines.
San Antonio @ Toronto +6
The Spurs are quite underrated, the Raptors are not within 9 points of an elite team.
San Antonio -6 (0.5 units) -$55

Charlotte @ Washington -4.5
Why on earth is Vegas saying that the winless Wizards are better than the respectable Bobcats?
Charlotte +4.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Utah @ Sacramento +1.5
The Kings are still about even with the Jazz.
Sacramento +1.5 (0.5 units) +$50

No games yesterday on Thanksgiving, but got some picks today.
Golden State @ Denver -7
What's with all the Nuggets love?
Golden State +7 (0.5 units) -$55
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis -4.5
The Lakers are not that good, new coach or old coach.
Memphis -4.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Sacramento @ Utah -9
The Jazz have covered -9 twice this year.
Sacramento +9 (0.5 units) +$50

San Antonio @ Boston +1.5
I like the Spurs for a small play against overrated Boston.
San Antonio -1.5 (1 unit) +$100
Chicago @ Houston -1
And can someone tell me why Chicago is a dog to Houston with Harden questionable?
Chicago +1 (1 unit) -$110
New York @ Dallas +2.5
The Knicks are quite good, Dallas has no Nowitzki.
New York -2.5 (.5 units) -$55
Brooklyn @ Golden State -2
This is an overreaction to Brooklyn's loss at the hands of the Lakers.
Brooklyn +2 (1 unit) -$110

No reads on anything tonight.

Golden State @ Oklahoma City -10
I'm not sure the Thunder will dominate a game against a solid opponent.
Golden State +10 (0.5 units) +-$0

Switching over to a new post because we've passed the middle of the month.
New York @ Memphis -6
Both of these teams have played very well so far, but I think Memphis is the better team with more impressive wins.
Memphis -6 (1 unit) +$100

Monday, November 12, 2012

The New Developments on the College Football Playoffs... and How it Would Shake Out This Year

Well, in case you haven't seen the bombshell article on ESPN, new details have come out about the way the new college football playoff will work starting in 2014. Here's what's I said wasn't going to happen that is:
1) The Rose and Sugar Bowls WILL take part in the semi-final rotation just like the other 6 bowls
2) There will be NO 7th bowl game
3) The highest ranked "Group of 5" champion will get an AUTOMATIC BID to one of the 6 semi's
4) No Group of 5 team can play in the Rose/Sugar/Orange Bowls unless it's in a semi-final
Here's what we still don't know:
1) Where the first national championship game will be. Atlanta? Tampa? Dallas? Houston? All those names and more have been thrown out there.
2) Which 3 bowls will be the "access bowls". The Fiesta, Peach and Cotton are the early leaders as I suggested.
So, here's how I think it would shake out if the season ended today. I'm going to assume the following semi-final rotation for my purposes:
2012: Orange, Cotton
2013: Rose, Peach
2014: Fiesta, Sugar
I'm using the at-large selection order of Fiesta, Peach.
Orange (semi #1): 2 Oregon vs. 3 Notre Dame
Cotton (semi #2): 1 Kansas State vs. 4 Alabama
Rose: 13 Stanford vs. 14 Nebraska
Sugar: 5 Georgia vs. 12 Oklahoma
Fiesta: 6 Florida vs. 11 Clemson
Peach: 10 Florida State vs. 20 Louisiana Tech

That's all for now!

NFL Picks Week 11

Quite a solid week at +$580. Solid chunk of change there. The Atlanta game was beyond stressful. How do you not convert when you have 1st and goal when you're undefeated. Uggh. I'm gonna stop the 0.5 on all O/U because it's silly in retrospect. Here we go...
Game 1: Miami @ Buffalo -1
Before we start, I'd like to point out that there was no line I saw and instantly thought "that's a big pick". I had that with Atlanta an Tennessee last week. Back to this game, the Dolphins are coming off a blowout loss to the aforementioned Titans. I normally like picking teams that just got blown out (like the Titans last week!) but the Dolphins should not be considered better than Buffalo by 2 points. I'm not sure the Bills will be up for this game after the heartbreaker against New England. 1 on the Bills.
Unit Change: OK, I've been awful on Thursday Nights this year. But I'll bump this play up.
Buffalo -1 (2 units) +$200
Under 45 (0 units) +$0

Game 2: Philadelphia @ Washington -3.5
Well, maybe I lied. I did have a clear idea who to pick when I saw this line. The Eagles are coming off a complete demolition at the hands of the Cowboys (ouch!) while the Skins will be focused after the bye. Meanwhile, Michael Vick could be out for this contest, and the spread will inflate if he is. I'll probably reduce this play in that case.
Unit Change: I'm dropping this to 2 units cause the spread rose over 3.
Washington -3.5 (2 units) +$200
Over 45 (0 units) -$0

Game 3: Green Bay @ Detroit +3
Hurrah! My Lions don't have to get demolished by Green Bay on Thanksgiving this year. Instead, we get to be demolished by Houston! Th Lions have a ridiculous schedule this year. Green Bay twice, Chicago twice, Atlanta, Houston etc. Anyways, the Packers should be favored by about 6 here IMO. They'll be up for this non-conference tilt. I'm limiting my wager on them because the Lions have shown flashes of brilliance this year.
Green Bay -3 (2 units) +$200
Under 52.5 (0 units) +$0

Game 4: Arizona @ Atlanta -9.5
The most interesting aspect of this game, in my opinion, is the psychology on Atlanta's side. Whether or not they're up for this game will be a good indicator of how the rest of the year will go for them. Arizona has dropped 5 straight since their undefeated start, and are starting to play like the Cardinals again. The Falcons probably should not be 10 point favorites here, but I have no confidence in the Cards' offense.
Unit Change: I'll put half a unit on the over in this contest, both these teams have solid offenses.
Arizona +9.5 (0 units) +$0
Over 43.5 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 5: Tampa Bay @ Carolina +1
This one jumped out to me as a game to watch when looking at the spreads this week. Carolina was one of my favorite teams to pick (see WAS/CAR write-up) but my reason for picking them went out the window against Denver. On the other hand, Tampa has been on fire as of late. I'll put 2 units on the Panthers, as I'm not sure the Bucs will respond well to being road favorites.
Carolina +1 (2 units) -$220
Over 47.5 (0 units) +$0

Game 6: Cleveland @ Dallas -7.5
Dallas? As a favorite of more than a touchdown? Wow. Cleveland is not that bad, Trent Richardson is learning the NFL and making the Browns significantly better in the process. Everybody and their mother is overreacting to Dallas' win over an even more awful Eagles side. This line is over the key number of 7, I'll lay 3 units on the visitor.
Cleveland +7 (3 units) +$300
Over 43.5 (0 units) -$0

Game 7: New York Jets @ Saint Louis -3.5
This is quite an interesting matchup for a number of reasons. First of all, a Jets blowout loss could lead to Tebow becoming the starting QB (despite what Herm Edwards might say). Additionally, we have the psychology factor on both sides. How will the Rams respond after their tie? Will the Jets realize this is a key game or will they wilt in a second game out west? There's too many variables here for me to wager.
New York Jets +3.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 38.5 (0 units) -$0

Game 8: Indianapolis @ New England -10
I have a feeling that this could be a statement game for Andrew Luck and the Colts. With a win here, he'll have slayed the dragon of the AFC in Foxborough. You've got to believe he'll play for that. The Patriots may ease up over the next two weeks before their annual late-season push. Also, why is this game important for New England? They're many games up in the AFC East. Colts for 3.
Indianapolis +10 (3 units) -$330
Under 54 (0 units) -$0

Game 9: Jacksonville @ Houston -15.5
16 points!!! I immediately knew how I was betting this game when I saw this line, but I'll get to that in a second. Jacksonville has been in a similar situation this year against the Packers in Green Bay. Houston, however, has not. I'm putting 0 units here.
Jacksonville +15.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 40.5 (0 units) -$0

Game 10: Cincinnati @ Kansas City +3
Well, we've got 2 teams coming off nice performances. The Bengals squashed the Giants in Cincy last week, while the Chiefs held a lead an took the Steelers to overtime in Pittsburgh. The Chiefs should be very invigorated for this contest, but that's not the main reason I'm laying 4 units on them. The Bengals are in a unfamiliar spot as a road favorite, and they've been quite awful aside from that Giants game.
Unit Change: I'm starting to feel uncomfortable about the Chiefs playing sluggishly after the Monday Night loss. Dropping this to 3.
Unit Change: Spread has dropped to 3, dropping the pick to 2.
Kansas City +3 (2 units) -$220
Over 42.5 (0 units) -$0

Game 11: New Orleans @ Oakland +5
New Orleans as a 5 point road favorite??? Oh my. Then again, it is against an awful Raiders team. Can Brees and company finally reach .500? Honestly, the main reason I'll be paying attention to this game is because I picked up Carson Palmer in my fantasy league because Big Ben is injured and Tony Romo sucks. I have no read here.
Unit Change: OK, both these teams have OK offenses, but 55 for the O/U? Yeesh. I'll put a unit on the under.
Oakland +5 (0 units) -$0
Under 55.5 (1 unit) +$100

Game 12: San Diego @ Denver -8
Whenever my dad talks about the Chargers, the first words out of his mouth are always "the Norv Turner factor". It seems the Norv Turner factor has taken full control of the Chargers, sending them spiraling. At 3-6, they likely have to win out to make the playoffs. The Broncos are playing quite well, but I'm not sure they'll be up for this contest when they're way up in the division, so I'll curb my wager.
Denver -8 (2 units) -$220
Over 48 (0 units) +$0

Game 13: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh +3
The major storyline here, obviously, is the injury to Ben Roethlisberger. In fact, the injury to Big Ben is one of the main reasons I like Pittsburgh. I don't think a slightly above average quarterback should induce a 6-point swing in the line. The Steelers have covered +3.5 in every game since week 1, while the Ravens have been sluggish as of late (HOU, KC). The only reason I'm not placing 4 on Pittsburgh is because Byron Leftwich is a below average backup.
Unit Change: C'mon, these defenses aren't that good. Half a unit on over 40.
Pittsburgh +3 (3 units) +-$0
Over 40 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 14: Chicago @ San Francisco -3.5
Really short on time, but don't have a read on either side, so not going to type something up. However, even sans starting QB's, an O/U of 34 is ridiculous. Gimme a unit on the over.
Chicago +3.5 (0 units) -$0
Over 34 (1 unit) +$100

Moneyline: Cleveland +300 (1 unit) -$110
Moneyline: New York Jets +164 (0.5 units) +$82

NFL Picks Week 11: +$8
NFL Picks 2012: +$1705

Sunday, November 11, 2012

College Football Power Ratings Week 11

Here's my computer's top 25 thorugh Week 11. Alabama is still #1, but their lead shrunk a ton. Rounding off scores to the nearest whole number.

1. Alabama 139
2. Georgia 128
3. Notre Dame 124
4. Florida 115
5. Oklahoma 114
6. Kansas State 110
7. Oregon 107
8. South Carolina 103
9. Texas A&M 97
10. LSU 97
11. Florida State 95
12. Texas 94
13. Clemson 91
14. Nebraska 86
15. Ohio State 84
16. USC 83
17. Oklahoma State 83
18. Oregon State 77
19. Stanford 77
20. Rutgers 70
21. BYU 68
22. Wisconsin 65
23. Michigan 65
24. UCLA 64
25. UCF 62

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

NFL Picks Week 10

Last Update: Noon Eastern Sunday (Updated spreads, ATL/NO unit change)

+$1162! That's what I call a nice week. I'm putting .5 units on all my O/U picks after how well they did last week.

Game 1: Indianapolis @ Jacksonville +3
The Colts are surprising everyone, including myself. How on earth are they 5-3 without their coach? Andrew Luck is playing like the clear-cut #1 pick he is. The Jaguars have been certifiably awful, suffering a home blowout to the mediocre Lions last week. I'm treating this as a not quite as awesome version of the Baltimore game last week.
Indianapolis -3 (2 units) +$200
Over 42.5 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 2: Buffalo @ New England -13.5

I guess Ryan Lindell must have had some money on Houston, eh? In case you're confused, the Bills kicker missed a 35 yard field goal way wide late so the Bills lost by 12 (the spread was 10.5). The Pats are coming off a bye and a big win in London. I'll place 2 units on the host.
Unit Change: I'm dropping this to 1 unit as the spread has inflated to 13.
New England -13.5 (1 unit) -$110
Under 54 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 3: New York Giants @ Cincinnati +4
The Giants are coming off a surprising loss to the Steelers that cost me 3 units. I think they're going to wait about 2 weeks to go into Eli Manning-powered overdrive. The Bengals lost by 8 to Denver, much to my dismay last week. I think both sides are overrated here. Cincy didn't deserve to hang with Denver for that long and the Giants are emotionally flat. Going with the home dog for 0.
Cincinnati +4 (0 units) +$0
Under 47.5 (0.5 units) +$50

Game 4: San Diego @ Tampa Bay -3

And, terrible triangle no more! Tampa Bay, Carolina and New Orleans have learned how to play football. Josh Freeman is showing some of that first round ability he had when drafted out of K-State. The Chargers had a convincing victory over KC. I think the Bucs should be 5-6 point favorites. I'll put 1 on them.
Unit Change: I'm feeling way more confident here. The Chargers are just not that good. Bumping it to 3.
Tampa Bay -3 (3 units) +$300
Over 46.5 (0.5 units) +$50

Game 5: Denver @ Carolina +3.5

Denver played solid against Cincinnati, but it's a complete joke that they're at 5:1 to win the Super Bowl. The amount of Peyton-driven hype they're getting is ridiculous. Conversely, the Panthers pulled out a nice win over the Redskins. I'm not sure the Broncos will be up for this non-conference matchup.
Carolina +3.5 (1 unit) -$110
Over 46.5 (0.5 units) +$50

Game 6: Tennessee @ Miami -6.5

I have seen a TON of "experts" who are all over Tennessee. I think I'm going to have to agree. The Dolphins are a solid favorite after a loss, not a familiar situation. I was pretty high on the Titans a few weeks ago, especially against Buffalo. They're not as bad as the public thinks after the Bears game.
Unit Change: I'll bump this one to 3 as well. Why is Miami favored by this much?
Unit Change: Well, the spread has risen to the key number of 7, so I'll bump this to 4 units.
Unit Change: And it dropped below 7 again. Back to 3 units.
Tennessee +6.5 (3 units) +$300
Over 44 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 7: Oakland @ Baltimore -7.5

Uggh, Baltimore is really, really overrated. They beat KC by 7, Cleveland by 10, Cleveland by 7, etc. etc. Joe Flacco is solid, but Ray Rice needs to be seeing more carries. They'll get exposed against Pittsburgh on Sunday Night next week. The Raiders have 3 wins, and may be underrated.
Unit Change: Eh, not feeling this one anymore. Baltimore is still overrated, but the Raiders suck more than I realized.
Oakland +7.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 48 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 8: Atlanta @ New Orleans +2

I told you guys that I learned my lesson on picking against Atlanta last week after the Philly game. Well, they covered against Dallas, even if it wasn't pretty. I'm curbing my wager this week because they're playing in the Superdome, and the Saints are starting to play like a football team.
Unit Change: I'm raising this to 4 units because Atlanta has covered 2.5 in every game this year, and the spread dropped below 3.
Atlanta -2 (4 units) -$440
Under 52.5 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 9: Detroit @ Minnesota +3

The Lions are finally getting on the roll many people predicted, albeit not against top quality competition. On the other hand, the Vikings are cooling off after an early roll. If I was picking Detroit, I'd likely tease them to +4. But I'm going with the home dog for 0 units.
Minnesota +3 (0 units) +$0
Over 46 (0.5 units) +$50

Game 10: New York Jets @ Seattle -5.5

If you've been reading my picks for a few weeks now, you know who I'm picking here. The Jets are, well, the dysfunctional Jets. I'll put the over/under on Tebow starting at QB at 3.5 weeks. The Seahawks have the biggest home-field advantage in the league, and they haven't lost at home all year. Russell Wilson is for real, guys. 3 on Seattle.
Unit Change: I'm feeling this one. Gimme 4 on Seattle.
Seattle -5.5 (4 units) +$400
Over 38.5 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 11: Dallas @ Philadelphia +2

Oh my, it's the overhyped toilet bowl of the week! I teased against these teams last week, an it worked wonders. On one hand, we have the Cowboys who have looked pathetic since their opening win against the Giants. On the other hand, we have the Eagles who have seen calls to bench Vick. I'll go with, uh, Philly? I'm not touching this spread.
Unit Change: This spread has moved to 2.5, I'll lay a unit on the host, but that's all I'm comfortable with on the Eagles.
Philadelphia +2 (1 unit) -$110
Over 44 (0.5 units) +$50

Game 12: Saint Louis @ San Francisco -13

The Rams looked pathetic last time out in London against the Pats. Their front office has to be asking themselves if Bradford is really the QB of the future. They have a lot of picks from the RG3 trade to find a replacement. And here's a San Fran stat I bet you didn't know: they've allowed 12 points TOTAL in their last 3 wins. If that holds, and San Fran scores more than 15, they'll cover. I'll put 2 on them for that.
San Francisco -13 (2 units) -$220
Under 38 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 13: Houston @ Chicago -1

Oh my, this is most definitely the most intriguing game of the week. Finally, NBC shows a Sunday Night Football team not involving Peyton Manning or the NFC East. Both of these teams have 1 loss on the year to Green Bay. Houston hasn't had a game decided by less than 12 points in a month. I think that they're the 2nd best team in football behind Atlanta. Chicago's best win is Indy? Detroit? Tennessee? I like the Texans in this spot.
Unit Change: Well, I'm thinking about it more, and Chicago is overrated. 3 on Houston.
Houston +1 (3 units) +$300
Over 38.5 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 14: Kansas City @ Pittsburgh -13

Kansas City has not held a lead the whole year. Isn't that ridiculous? They're the definition of putrid at this point, it's not the Browns anymore. They didn't cover 12.5 against San Diego (twice), Buffalo or Tampa Bay. However, Pittsburgh did have that fluke loss against Oakland. I think the Steelers are definitely gaining momentum, but their habit of losing to teams they shouldn't (Oakland, Tennessee) makes me not put any units on them.
Pittsburgh -13 (0 units)
Under 40.5 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: Tennessee +220 (1 unit) +$220
Teaser: Tampa Bay +3, Atlanta +4 (2 units) Push +-$0
NFL Picks Week 10: +$580
NFL Picks 2012: +$1697

Monday, November 5, 2012

Projected College Football Playoff and BCS Bowls

Hey guys! I think I'm going to make this a weekly feature for the rest of college football season (which is what, all of 8 weeks?). The first part of the post is going to be about my projected college football playoff I discussed in July, except I've kind of changed how I think the playoff is going to look. Here's a quick outline:
There are 7 BCS Bowls. They are:
Fiesta Bowl
Orange Bowl
Cotton Bowl
Peach Bowl
Rose Bowl
Sugar Bowl
Tangerine Bowl
Few notes:
1) In even-numbered years, the Cotton and Orange Bowls host the semis of the 4-team playoff
2) In odd-numbered years, the Peach and Fiesta Bowls host the semis of the 4-team playoff
3) The Rose Bowl will host the Pac-12 and Big 10 champions
4) The Sugar Bowl will host the SEC and Big XII champions
5) Either the Peach or Orange Bowl (whichever is not hosting a semi-final) will house the ACC champion/Notre Dame
6) After the above rules are filled, the 6 main bowls will pick the top remaining teams in the BCS Standings as at-large teams
7) If, at this point, the top ranked conference champion from the Big East, MAC, Sun Belt, WAC, C-USA or Mountain West (the minor conferences) is not in one of the 6 major bowls, that team will play in the Tangerine Bowl against the top ranked Big 12/Pac-12 team remaining
8) Each conference may only place 3 teams in the 6 major bowls, however
9) If the top minor conference team is already in one of the 6 bowls, the Tangerine Bowl will select the 2 highest remaining teams (can be a 4th team from a conference)
10) No 2 teams from the same conference may play each other in one of the 7 bowls
11) The Rose and Sugar bowls will take a replacement team from their respective conference if they lose a team from that conference to the playoff.

OK, now that I got that out of the way, here's how the playoff would look like this year if the season ended today. I'm using the current BCS standings.
Orange Bowl (semi #1): 1 Alabama vs. 4 Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl (semi #2): 2 Kansas State vs. 3 Oregon
Rose Bowl: 11 Oregon State vs. 16 Nebraska
Sugar Bowl: 5 Georgia vs. 12 Oklahoma
Peach Bowl: 10 Florida State vs. 14 Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: 6 Florida vs. 9 Louisville
Tangerine Bowl: 7 LSU vs. 13 Clemson

For the BCS Bowls, I'll just say what I think the BCS bowls would look like if the season ended today.
National Champ: 1 Alabama vs. 2 Kansas State
Rose: 3 Oregon vs. 16 Nebraska
Sugar: 4 Notre Dame vs. 13 Clemson
Orange: 10 Florida State vs. 9 Louisville
Fiesta: 5 Georgia vs. 12 Oklahoma

That's all for now!

College Football Power Ratings Week 10

Here's my computer's top 25 through week 10. Surprisingly little movement at the top. The number of points that could be on the line in a Alabama-Florida game is absolutely astronomical. However, we do have some major tightening up among teams 2-5.
1. Alabama 154.08
2. Notre Dame 122.54
3. Florida 120.9
4. Georgia 120.82
5. Oklahoma 118.12
6. Oregon 105.53
7. Kansas State 104.38
8. Florida State 98.21
9. South Carolina 96.49
10. LSU 90.78
11. Clemson 89.89
12. Texas 86.02
13. Ohio State 84.14
14. Texas A&M 82.16
15. Oregon State 81.54
16. Nebraska 79.17
17. USC 77.54
18. Oklahoma State 75.85
19. Stanford 72.17
20. BYU 69.8
21. Rutgers 68.33
22. UCLA 68.18
23. UCF 66.51
24. Penn State 65.05
25. North Carolina 64.24
Next 5 out: Michigan, Texas Tech, Louisville, Tennessee, Wisconsin