Showing posts from November, 2012

Pick Tracker Update: November 28, and Bankroll Management

OK guys, I've decided to set up a set bankroll and way I'm making my picks. Don't forget all my picks are entirely fictitious, I never actually make picks with real money. My complete and utter lack of bankroll management hasn't bitten me yet, considering all the good weeks I've been having. However, I'm going to start managing my bankroll now. Here's a quick summary:
1) My bankroll is going to be $10,000, mainly because I already have been using $100 as a unit, and 1 unit is 1% of the bankroll
2) My NBA Picks will likely be getting more units now, shifting to a 0.8/1/1.5 unit system
3) My NFL Picks will likely be getting less units now. What was once a 4 unit picks is now going to be about a 3 unit pick in how confident I feel. Here's a quick breakdown:
Used to be 1 unit pick, now 0.8
Used to be 2 unit pick, now 1.5
Used to be 3 unit pick, now 2.5
Used to be 4 unit pick, now 3
And now, I'm going to be updating my pick tracker to see how I'm doi…

College Football Power Ratings: Week 13

Here's my computer's top 25 for the week. I'm trying out a new wrinkle to my system which I may release an article on later this week, but I haven't implemented it yet. Eerily, my top 5 is the same as the BCS standings.
1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Florida
5. Oregon
6. Oklahoma
7. South Carolina
8. Texas A&M
9. Stanford
10. LSU
11. Kansas State
12. Oklahoma State
13. Ohio State
14. Nebraska
15. Florida State
16. Clemson
17. Texas
18. Baylor
19. Oregon State
20. Michigan
21. USC
22. TCU
23. Penn State
24. UCLA
25. Vanderbilt

That's all for now!

NFL Picks Week 12

Game 1: Detroit @ Houston +3.5
Oh, it's my favorite Thanksgiving tradition! Watching my Lions get massacred while I eat turkey and stuffing. The Lions will be missing left tackle Jeff Sackus, but Louis Delmas will be back. Both are good news for the Lions in my opinion. The Texans are having to travel on a short week after an overtime game, a recipe for disaster. I think Stafford will prove himself this year.
Detroit +3.5 (1 unit) +$100
Over 48.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Washington @ Dallas -3.5
The 'Skins, in my opinion, are one of the more underrated teams in the league. They have a host of losses to good teams and none really to bad teams. Dallas is pretty underrated as well right now, this spread should not have moved 3 points after the Cleveland game. I'll take Dallas for 0.
Dallas -3.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 48 (0 units) -$0
Game 3: New England @ New York Jets +7
The Pats are on a roll, and they haven't lost since the second week of October. However, what most people are t…

College Football Power Ratings Week 12

And Notre Dame steals the number one spot from the Tide! The Tide lost the customary 5% of their rating for playing an FCS squad, and Notre Dame took 100% of the pot against Wake Forest, leading to the takeover at #1. Here's my computer's top 25:
1. Notre Dame 131
2. Alabama 129
3. Georgia 119
4. Oklahoma 108
5. Florida 106
6. Oregon 101
7. Florida State 95
8. South Carolina 95
9. Texas 94
10. Clemson 93
11. LSU 93
12. Kansas State 91
13. Oklahoma State 90
14. Texas A&M 90
15. Nebraska 88
16. Ohio State 87
17. Stanford 83
18. Oregon State 79
19. Rutgers 76
20. UCLA 75
21. Baylor 73
22. USC 72
23. Michigan 68
24. Penn State 62
25. Wisconsin 62

That's all for now!

NBA Picks Late November

NBA Picks 2012-13: -$205
Phoenix @ Toronto -3
Overreaction to the Suns' loss yesterday.
Phoenix +3 (0.5 units) -$55
Brooklyn @ Orlando +4.5
The Nets remain underrated, somehow.
Brooklyn -4.5 (0.8 units) +$80
Portland @ Washington +3
I will continue to fade the god-awful Wizards.
Portland -3 (1 unit) -$110
Phoenix @ Detroit -3.5
The Suns are far better than people give them credit for.
Pheonix +3.5 (0.5 units) -$55

I'm going to be making picks of either 0.5, 0.8 or 1 units for the foreseeable future. I'm developing a system.
Toronto @ Houston -6
The Rockets have made a believer out of me.
Houston -6 (0.8 units) +$80

Considered the Spurs, but I got no play tonight.

I'm going to be generally placing more units now as I'm getting a feel for NBA lines.
San Antonio @ Toronto +6
The Spurs are quite underrated, the Raptors are not within 9 points of an elite team.
San Antonio -6 (0.5 units) -$55

Charlotte @ Washington -4.5
Why on earth is Veg…

The New Developments on the College Football Playoffs... and How it Would Shake Out This Year

Well, in case you haven't seen the bombshell article on ESPN, new details have come out about the way the new college football playoff will work starting in 2014. Here's what's I said wasn't going to happen that is:
1) The Rose and Sugar Bowls WILL take part in the semi-final rotation just like the other 6 bowls
2) There will be NO 7th bowl game
3) The highest ranked "Group of 5" champion will get an AUTOMATIC BID to one of the 6 semi's
4) No Group of 5 team can play in the Rose/Sugar/Orange Bowls unless it's in a semi-final
Here's what we still don't know:
1) Where the first national championship game will be. Atlanta? Tampa? Dallas? Houston? All those names and more have been thrown out there.
2) Which 3 bowls will be the "access bowls". The Fiesta, Peach and Cotton are the early leaders as I suggested.
So, here's how I think it would shake out if the season ended today. I'm going to assume the following semi-final rotation…

NFL Picks Week 11

Quite a solid week at +$580. Solid chunk of change there. The Atlanta game was beyond stressful. How do you not convert when you have 1st and goal when you're undefeated. Uggh. I'm gonna stop the 0.5 on all O/U because it's silly in retrospect. Here we go...
Game 1: Miami @ Buffalo -1
Before we start, I'd like to point out that there was no line I saw and instantly thought "that's a big pick". I had that with Atlanta an Tennessee last week. Back to this game, the Dolphins are coming off a blowout loss to the aforementioned Titans. I normally like picking teams that just got blown out (like the Titans last week!) but the Dolphins should not be considered better than Buffalo by 2 points. I'm not sure the Bills will be up for this game after the heartbreaker against New England. 1 on the Bills.
Unit Change: OK, I've been awful on Thursday Nights this year. But I'll bump this play up.
Buffalo -1 (2 units) +$200
Under 45 (0 units) +$0

Game 2: Philade…

College Football Power Ratings Week 11

Here's my computer's top 25 thorugh Week 11. Alabama is still #1, but their lead shrunk a ton. Rounding off scores to the nearest whole number.

1. Alabama 139
2. Georgia 128
3. Notre Dame 124
4. Florida 115
5. Oklahoma 114
6. Kansas State 110
7. Oregon 107
8. South Carolina 103
9. Texas A&M 97
10. LSU 97
11. Florida State 95
12. Texas 94
13. Clemson 91
14. Nebraska 86
15. Ohio State 84
16. USC 83
17. Oklahoma State 83
18. Oregon State 77
19. Stanford 77
20. Rutgers 70
21. BYU 68
22. Wisconsin 65
23. Michigan 65
24. UCLA 64
25. UCF 62

NFL Picks Week 10

Last Update: Noon Eastern Sunday (Updated spreads, ATL/NO unit change)

+$1162! That's what I call a nice week. I'm putting .5 units on all my O/U picks after how well they did last week.

Game 1: Indianapolis @ Jacksonville +3
The Colts are surprising everyone, including myself. How on earth are they 5-3 without their coach? Andrew Luck is playing like the clear-cut #1 pick he is. The Jaguars have been certifiably awful, suffering a home blowout to the mediocre Lions last week. I'm treating this as a not quite as awesome version of the Baltimore game last week.
Indianapolis -3 (2 units) +$200
Over 42.5 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 2: Buffalo @ New England -13.5
I guess Ryan Lindell must have had some money on Houston, eh? In case you're confused, the Bills kicker missed a 35 yard field goal way wide late so the Bills lost by 12 (the spread was 10.5). The Pats are coming off a bye and a big win in London. I'll place 2 units on the host.
Unit Change: I'm dropping this to 1 unit …

Projected College Football Playoff and BCS Bowls

Hey guys! I think I'm going to make this a weekly feature for the rest of college football season (which is what, all of 8 weeks?). The first part of the post is going to be about my projected college football playoff I discussed in July, except I've kind of changed how I think the playoff is going to look. Here's a quick outline:
There are 7 BCS Bowls. They are:
Fiesta Bowl
Orange Bowl
Cotton Bowl
Peach Bowl
Rose Bowl
Sugar Bowl
Tangerine Bowl
Few notes:
1) In even-numbered years, the Cotton and Orange Bowls host the semis of the 4-team playoff
2) In odd-numbered years, the Peach and Fiesta Bowls host the semis of the 4-team playoff
3) The Rose Bowl will host the Pac-12 and Big 10 champions
4) The Sugar Bowl will host the SEC and Big XII champions
5) Either the Peach or Orange Bowl (whichever is not hosting a semi-final) will house the ACC champion/Notre Dame
6) After the above rules are filled, the 6 main bowls will pick the top remaining teams in the BCS Standings as at-la…

College Football Power Ratings Week 10

Here's my computer's top 25 through week 10. Surprisingly little movement at the top. The number of points that could be on the line in a Alabama-Florida game is absolutely astronomical. However, we do have some major tightening up among teams 2-5.
1. Alabama 154.08
2. Notre Dame 122.54
3. Florida 120.9
4. Georgia 120.82
5. Oklahoma 118.12
6. Oregon 105.53
7. Kansas State 104.38
8. Florida State 98.21
9. South Carolina 96.49
10. LSU 90.78
11. Clemson 89.89
12. Texas 86.02
13. Ohio State 84.14
14. Texas A&M 82.16
15. Oregon State 81.54
16. Nebraska 79.17
17. USC 77.54
18. Oklahoma State 75.85
19. Stanford 72.17
20. BYU 69.8
21. Rutgers 68.33
22. UCLA 68.18
23. UCF 66.51
24. Penn State 65.05
25. North Carolina 64.24
Next 5 out: Michigan, Texas Tech, Louisville, Tennessee, Wisconsin