NFL Picks Week 12
Game 1: Detroit @ Houston +3.5
Oh, it's my favorite Thanksgiving tradition! Watching my Lions get massacred while I eat turkey and stuffing. The Lions will be missing left tackle Jeff Sackus, but Louis Delmas will be back. Both are good news for the Lions in my opinion. The Texans are having to travel on a short week after an overtime game, a recipe for disaster. I think Stafford will prove himself this year.
Detroit +3.5 (1 unit) +$100
Over 48.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Washington @ Dallas -3.5
The 'Skins, in my opinion, are one of the more underrated teams in the league. They have a host of losses to good teams and none really to bad teams. Dallas is pretty underrated as well right now, this spread should not have moved 3 points after the Cleveland game. I'll take Dallas for 0.
Dallas -3.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 48 (0 units) -$0
Game 3: New England @ New York Jets +7
The Pats are on a roll, and they haven't lost since the second week of October. However, what most people are talking about is the absence of Rob Gronkowski. However, this is not nearly as big a deal as people are making it out to be. Aaron Hernandez is quite a suitable replacement (who I picked up in Fantasy!). The Jets have only one good win against Indianapolis. I'll put 2 units on NE because of the Gronk overreaction.
New England -7 (2 units) +$200
Over 48 (0 units) +$0
Game 4: Oakland @ Cincinnati -8.5
Sorry I'm getting these picks out so late this week, because of the holiday I can't do them on the train to work as usual. Going to go with some shorter write-ups because of that. Oakland has been pretty pitiful as of late, with blowout losses to Tampa Bay, Baltimore and New Orleans in their last few games. The Bengals are pretty overrated, as most people don't realize they lost to Cleveland and Miami in the not so distant past. Carson Palmer may be familiar with Cincy's system, I'll lay a unit on Oakland. I'll put half a unit on the under because neither offense is that good.
Oakland +8.5 (1 unit) -$110
Under 50 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 5: Pittsburgh @ Cleveland +1.5
As I was flipping through the Steelers' results as I research this pick, I noticed that they've had a total over 50 just once this whole year (that fluke loss to the Raiders). The Browns are actually playing respectable football as of late, with no bad losses since Buffalo in week 3. Remember how I said last week that I like picking good teams without their starting quarterback? Well, I'm still picking Pittsburgh because of that, but only for 2 units because Charlie Batch is a whole new level of suck.
Pittsburgh -1.5 (2 units) -$220
Under 34.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 6: Buffalo @ Indianapolis -3
Buffalo is a strange team to get a read on. I'd have to put them at about 35th percentile. They have close games against comparable teams (Arizona, Tennessee, Miami) and beat teams they should've beaten (Kansas City, Cleveland). However, the public is completely overreacting to Indianapolis' loss to the Pats last week. They're a solid team coming off a spread loss of 25, which is normally a good situation. I like Indy for 4.
Indianapolis -3 (4 units) +$400
Under 51 (0 units) +$0
Game 7: Denver @ Kansas City +10.5
Ouch, 10.5 point road favorite? That's no joke. The Chiefs are easily the worst team in the NFL, and it's a miracle they even beat New Orleans. The real question is whether or not the Broncos are going to show up for this game, as they have a three game cushion in the AFC West. I really don't think that they'll show up, but then again the Chiefs have Brady Quinn. I really don't like either side with this huge spread.
Kansas City +10.5 (0 units) +$0
Over 44 (0 units) -$0
Game 8: Tennessee @ Jacksonville +3.5
The psychology of this game is definitely the most interesting factor. The Titans have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and every game is crucial for them to get into the playoffs. They shouldn't be phased by being a road favorite, they've beaten bad teams on the road recently. On the other side of the coin, the Jags are likely going to be completely devastated after their heartbreaking OT loss to Houston. I'll lay 3 units on Tennessee. I'll lay half a unit on the under with Jake Locker and Chad Henne under center.
Tennessee -3.5 (3 units) -$330
Under 44.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 9: Minnesota @ Chicago -6.5
Well, many people said that the San Francisco and Houston games would tell us whether or not the Bears were a legit Super Bowl contender. It appears that they've been relegated to a fringe contender. Unlike the Cardinals, the Vikings have kept the surprise team label going deep into the season. However, they still have 2 games against each the Bears and the Packers as well as a game against Houston. Chicago is coming off a hectic loss and is slipping, while the Vikings have had 2 weeks to focus. I like Minny for 4 units. I'm also putting a unit on the over, as Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte are both quite good.
Unit Change: I'm halving this pick. Not liking Minny as much.
Minnesota +6.5 (2 units) -$220
Over 39 (1 unit) -$110
Game 10: Atlanta @ Tampa Bay +1.5
The Buccaneers have really done a good job debunking the "Terrible Triangle" theory I created about a month ago, with 4 straight wins. I'm sure you've probably heard this stat, but the Falcons have 1 win over a team with a winning record all year (which, I might add is the same number the Bucs have). I don't think Atlanta is 4 points better than Tampa Bay, they're pretty comparable and Atlanta has struggled recently. I like Tampa Bay for 4 units.
Tampa Bay +1.5 (4 units) +$400
Over 51 (0 units) -$0
Game 11: Seattle @ Miami +3
One thing I doubt most people realize about the Seahawks is their fascinating home/road split. They have won each of their home games and lost each of their road games with the one exception of a game at the pitiful Panthers. Miami has had about 11 days to prepare for this contest, and I think they'll be focused because they know they have to win it to make the playoffs. However, I'm not putting too much faith in Ryan Tannehill.
Miami +3 (1 unit) +$100
Over 37.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 12: Baltimore @ San Diego +1
The Chargers are still the slump sparked by the heartbreaking loss to Denver a few Mondays back. The Norv Turner factor is most definitely alive and well. I'm not sure what to think of them here. Vegas says that the Ravens are 5 points better than San Diego (translate 4 points for moving across the country) and that Denver was 5.5 points better than San Diego last week. I think that Denver is probably 4 points or so better than Baltimore, so I'll put a unit on San Diego.
San Diego +1 (1 unit) -$110
Under 47 (0 units) +$0
Game 13: San Francisco @ New Orleans +1
This game immediately stuck out at me when I looked at the lines on Tuesday, because of Colin Kaepernick. I am floored that the Saints are getting more action than the 49ers considering the way Kaepernick played on Monday Night against a stellar Bears defense. However, he has to play in the Superdome this time against a rejuvenated Saints team. Call me a bandwagoner, but I think the 49ers may be the best teams in the NFC. I'll curb my play to 2 units because of the unfamiliarity.
San Francisco -1 (2 units) +$200
Under 49.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 14: Saint Louis @ Arizona -1.5
OK, hold up. A team with Ryan Lindell as their starting quarterback is favored? Oh wait, Ryan Lindley, but same difference. The Rams are not so pitiful that a 3rd string quarterback on a team that has lost 6 in a row should be favored against them. The Rams aren't doing so hot either aside from the tie with the 49ers, but I'm going with Saint Louis for 4 units. These teams are about equal with their starting quarterbacks in.
Saint Louis +1.5 (4 units) +$400
Under 37 (0 units) -$0
Game 15: Green Bay @ New York Giants -3
The Packers are on fire and have at least pushed +3 nine weeks in a row. That row of nine teams includes the like of the Texans, Seahawks, Bears, Colts and the Lions. Pretty impressive. I think that the Packers and the 49ers are the 2 best teams in the NFC. The big question here is whether the Giants will start their late season surge now, or in a week or two. I'm going to guess they still have a little bit before the surge considering that they're 1.5 up in the East. GB for 2.
Green Bay +3 (2 units) -$220
Under 51 (0 units) +$0
Game 16: Carolina @ Philadelphia +3
Oh my, who scheduled this stinkfest for Monday Night Football? The Eagles have been the definition of pitiful ever since those lucky opening wins, and Michael Vick is out and Nick Foles is starting. Normally this would help the Eagles' case, but Foles has looked awful. I'm not comfortable betting the Panthers as road favorites, but I think they're the right side here. I'm staying away with a 10-foot pole.
Carolina -3 (0 units) +$0
Under 40.5 (0 units) -$0
Props/Teasers/Pleasers:
Teaser: Tennessee +2.5, Indianapolis +3 (2.5 units) -$275
Moneyline: Oakland +345 (0.6 units) -$66
Pleaser: Saint Louis -4.5, Green Bay -3 (Ties win) +550 (1 unit) -$110
NFL Picks Week 12: +$129
NFL Picks 2012: +$1834
Oh, it's my favorite Thanksgiving tradition! Watching my Lions get massacred while I eat turkey and stuffing. The Lions will be missing left tackle Jeff Sackus, but Louis Delmas will be back. Both are good news for the Lions in my opinion. The Texans are having to travel on a short week after an overtime game, a recipe for disaster. I think Stafford will prove himself this year.
Detroit +3.5 (1 unit) +$100
Over 48.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Washington @ Dallas -3.5
The 'Skins, in my opinion, are one of the more underrated teams in the league. They have a host of losses to good teams and none really to bad teams. Dallas is pretty underrated as well right now, this spread should not have moved 3 points after the Cleveland game. I'll take Dallas for 0.
Dallas -3.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 48 (0 units) -$0
Game 3: New England @ New York Jets +7
The Pats are on a roll, and they haven't lost since the second week of October. However, what most people are talking about is the absence of Rob Gronkowski. However, this is not nearly as big a deal as people are making it out to be. Aaron Hernandez is quite a suitable replacement (who I picked up in Fantasy!). The Jets have only one good win against Indianapolis. I'll put 2 units on NE because of the Gronk overreaction.
New England -7 (2 units) +$200
Over 48 (0 units) +$0
Game 4: Oakland @ Cincinnati -8.5
Sorry I'm getting these picks out so late this week, because of the holiday I can't do them on the train to work as usual. Going to go with some shorter write-ups because of that. Oakland has been pretty pitiful as of late, with blowout losses to Tampa Bay, Baltimore and New Orleans in their last few games. The Bengals are pretty overrated, as most people don't realize they lost to Cleveland and Miami in the not so distant past. Carson Palmer may be familiar with Cincy's system, I'll lay a unit on Oakland. I'll put half a unit on the under because neither offense is that good.
Oakland +8.5 (1 unit) -$110
Under 50 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 5: Pittsburgh @ Cleveland +1.5
As I was flipping through the Steelers' results as I research this pick, I noticed that they've had a total over 50 just once this whole year (that fluke loss to the Raiders). The Browns are actually playing respectable football as of late, with no bad losses since Buffalo in week 3. Remember how I said last week that I like picking good teams without their starting quarterback? Well, I'm still picking Pittsburgh because of that, but only for 2 units because Charlie Batch is a whole new level of suck.
Pittsburgh -1.5 (2 units) -$220
Under 34.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 6: Buffalo @ Indianapolis -3
Buffalo is a strange team to get a read on. I'd have to put them at about 35th percentile. They have close games against comparable teams (Arizona, Tennessee, Miami) and beat teams they should've beaten (Kansas City, Cleveland). However, the public is completely overreacting to Indianapolis' loss to the Pats last week. They're a solid team coming off a spread loss of 25, which is normally a good situation. I like Indy for 4.
Indianapolis -3 (4 units) +$400
Under 51 (0 units) +$0
Game 7: Denver @ Kansas City +10.5
Ouch, 10.5 point road favorite? That's no joke. The Chiefs are easily the worst team in the NFL, and it's a miracle they even beat New Orleans. The real question is whether or not the Broncos are going to show up for this game, as they have a three game cushion in the AFC West. I really don't think that they'll show up, but then again the Chiefs have Brady Quinn. I really don't like either side with this huge spread.
Kansas City +10.5 (0 units) +$0
Over 44 (0 units) -$0
Game 8: Tennessee @ Jacksonville +3.5
The psychology of this game is definitely the most interesting factor. The Titans have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and every game is crucial for them to get into the playoffs. They shouldn't be phased by being a road favorite, they've beaten bad teams on the road recently. On the other side of the coin, the Jags are likely going to be completely devastated after their heartbreaking OT loss to Houston. I'll lay 3 units on Tennessee. I'll lay half a unit on the under with Jake Locker and Chad Henne under center.
Tennessee -3.5 (3 units) -$330
Under 44.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 9: Minnesota @ Chicago -6.5
Well, many people said that the San Francisco and Houston games would tell us whether or not the Bears were a legit Super Bowl contender. It appears that they've been relegated to a fringe contender. Unlike the Cardinals, the Vikings have kept the surprise team label going deep into the season. However, they still have 2 games against each the Bears and the Packers as well as a game against Houston. Chicago is coming off a hectic loss and is slipping, while the Vikings have had 2 weeks to focus. I like Minny for 4 units. I'm also putting a unit on the over, as Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte are both quite good.
Unit Change: I'm halving this pick. Not liking Minny as much.
Minnesota +6.5 (2 units) -$220
Over 39 (1 unit) -$110
Game 10: Atlanta @ Tampa Bay +1.5
The Buccaneers have really done a good job debunking the "Terrible Triangle" theory I created about a month ago, with 4 straight wins. I'm sure you've probably heard this stat, but the Falcons have 1 win over a team with a winning record all year (which, I might add is the same number the Bucs have). I don't think Atlanta is 4 points better than Tampa Bay, they're pretty comparable and Atlanta has struggled recently. I like Tampa Bay for 4 units.
Tampa Bay +1.5 (4 units) +$400
Over 51 (0 units) -$0
Game 11: Seattle @ Miami +3
One thing I doubt most people realize about the Seahawks is their fascinating home/road split. They have won each of their home games and lost each of their road games with the one exception of a game at the pitiful Panthers. Miami has had about 11 days to prepare for this contest, and I think they'll be focused because they know they have to win it to make the playoffs. However, I'm not putting too much faith in Ryan Tannehill.
Miami +3 (1 unit) +$100
Over 37.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 12: Baltimore @ San Diego +1
The Chargers are still the slump sparked by the heartbreaking loss to Denver a few Mondays back. The Norv Turner factor is most definitely alive and well. I'm not sure what to think of them here. Vegas says that the Ravens are 5 points better than San Diego (translate 4 points for moving across the country) and that Denver was 5.5 points better than San Diego last week. I think that Denver is probably 4 points or so better than Baltimore, so I'll put a unit on San Diego.
San Diego +1 (1 unit) -$110
Under 47 (0 units) +$0
Game 13: San Francisco @ New Orleans +1
This game immediately stuck out at me when I looked at the lines on Tuesday, because of Colin Kaepernick. I am floored that the Saints are getting more action than the 49ers considering the way Kaepernick played on Monday Night against a stellar Bears defense. However, he has to play in the Superdome this time against a rejuvenated Saints team. Call me a bandwagoner, but I think the 49ers may be the best teams in the NFC. I'll curb my play to 2 units because of the unfamiliarity.
San Francisco -1 (2 units) +$200
Under 49.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 14: Saint Louis @ Arizona -1.5
OK, hold up. A team with Ryan Lindell as their starting quarterback is favored? Oh wait, Ryan Lindley, but same difference. The Rams are not so pitiful that a 3rd string quarterback on a team that has lost 6 in a row should be favored against them. The Rams aren't doing so hot either aside from the tie with the 49ers, but I'm going with Saint Louis for 4 units. These teams are about equal with their starting quarterbacks in.
Saint Louis +1.5 (4 units) +$400
Under 37 (0 units) -$0
Game 15: Green Bay @ New York Giants -3
The Packers are on fire and have at least pushed +3 nine weeks in a row. That row of nine teams includes the like of the Texans, Seahawks, Bears, Colts and the Lions. Pretty impressive. I think that the Packers and the 49ers are the 2 best teams in the NFC. The big question here is whether the Giants will start their late season surge now, or in a week or two. I'm going to guess they still have a little bit before the surge considering that they're 1.5 up in the East. GB for 2.
Green Bay +3 (2 units) -$220
Under 51 (0 units) +$0
Game 16: Carolina @ Philadelphia +3
Oh my, who scheduled this stinkfest for Monday Night Football? The Eagles have been the definition of pitiful ever since those lucky opening wins, and Michael Vick is out and Nick Foles is starting. Normally this would help the Eagles' case, but Foles has looked awful. I'm not comfortable betting the Panthers as road favorites, but I think they're the right side here. I'm staying away with a 10-foot pole.
Carolina -3 (0 units) +$0
Under 40.5 (0 units) -$0
Props/Teasers/Pleasers:
Teaser: Tennessee +2.5, Indianapolis +3 (2.5 units) -$275
Moneyline: Oakland +345 (0.6 units) -$66
Pleaser: Saint Louis -4.5, Green Bay -3 (Ties win) +550 (1 unit) -$110
NFL Picks Week 12: +$129
NFL Picks 2012: +$1834
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