Sunday, March 11, 2018

Bracketology 3/11/18 Evening (FINAL)

I'm feeling OK about the bubble- Davidson winning helped me out, as I was really having a hard time deciding on MTSU, Louisville or Arizona State for the last spot. I think USC and St. Mary's are the most likely teams in my projection to miss, but I wouldn't be shocked to see UCLA or Texas left out. All of the 8 teams I have listed as out have a chance- though Oklahoma State or Notre Dame getting a bid would indicate a complete shift in the committee's philosophy, in my eyes. I've included my final NIT projection at the bottom- I removed Maryland and BYU for Middle Tennessee and Harvard.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Cincinnati
3: Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan, Auburn
4: West Virginia, Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Arizona
5: Wichita State, Kentucky, Houston, Clemson
6: Ohio State, Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M
7: Miami (FL), TCU, Seton Hall, Nevada
8: Missouri, Virginia Tech, Providence, Rhode Island
9: Butler, St. Bonaventure, North Carolina State, Florida State
10: Alabama, Creighton, Kansas State, Oklahoma
11: (UCLA/Texas), (USC/St. Mary's), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State
12: Davidson, San Diego State, Murray State, Buffalo
13: South Dakota State, Charleston, UNC Greensboro, Marshall
14: Montana, Bucknell, Stephen F. Austin, Wright State
15: Lipscomb, Iona, Penn, Georgia State
16: UMBC, Cal State Fullerton, (Radford/Texas Southern), (LIU Brooklyn/NC Central)

First Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Marquette, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame

Moving In: Davidson, Georgia State
Moving Out: Middle Tennessee, UT-Arlington

1: Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse
2: Marquette, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame
3: Oregon, Penn State, Mississippi State, Nebraska
4: LSU, Georgia, Boise State, Western Kentucky
5: Utah, Washington, Old Dominion, Vermont
6: Stanford, Temple, Louisiana, Rider
7: Northern Kentucky, UC Davis, Florida Gulf Coast, Southeastern Louisiana
8: Harvard, Wagner, UNC Asheville, Hampton

Bracketology 3/11/18 Morning

Welcome to Selection Sunday, folks. Last year, I felt very good about the bubble on Sunday morning and ended up getting all 68 teams right. This year, not so much. I'm still strongly considering Louisville and Arizona State for the last at-large spot. However, I'll feel quite a bit more confident about the bubble if Davidson beats Rhode Island, I'd move MTSU out.

Expect some changes to the seed list today even outside of today's games- I'm going to be doing a lot of scrubbing.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Cincinnati
3: Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan, Auburn
4: Wichita State, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Texas Tech
5: Arizona, Kentucky, Houston, Clemson
6: Ohio State, Florida, Arkansas, TCU
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Nevada
8: Rhode Island, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Butler
9: St. Bonaventure, North Carolina State, Providence, Florida State
10: Creighton, Kansas State, Alabama, UCLA
11: Oklahoma, (Texas/USC), Loyola Chicago, (St. Mary's/Middle Tennessee)
12: New Mexico State, San Diego State, Murray State, Buffalo
13: South Dakota State, Montana, UNC Greensboro, Marshall
14: Bucknell, Charleston, Stephen F. Austin, UT-Arlington
15: Wright State, Lipscomb, Iona, UMBC
16: Penn, Cal State Fullerton, (Radford/Texas Southern), (LIU Brooklyn/NC Central)

First Four Out: Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse, Marquette
Next Three Out: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame

Moving In: UMBC, UT-Arlington, Marshall, Cal State Fullerton, NC Central
Moving Out: Vermont, Louisiana, Western Kentucky, UC Irvine, Hampton

1: Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse, Marquette
2: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame, Oregon
3: Penn State, Mississippi State, Nebraska, LSU
4: Georgia, Boise State, Utah, Washington
5: Old Dominion, Vermont, Stanford, Davidson
6: Temple, Louisiana, Maryland, BYU
7: Rider, Northern Kentucky, UC Davis, Florida Gulf Coast
8: Southeastern Louisiana, Wagner, UNC Asheville, Hampton


Saturday, March 10, 2018

Bracketology 3/10/18

We officially have our first bid stealer as Nevada got run out of the gym by San Diego State last night, I've moved the Aztecs in as a 12 seed. Falling out of the field at their expense is Louisville, Arizona State also moves out in favor of Middle Tennessee. Right now, I think there's 2 spots up for grabs in the field- I wouldn't be shocked to see UCLA, Oklahoma, Texas or USC left out but I think it's unlikely. I think that Louisville, Arizona State and Syracuse all have legitimate claims to be in while the four teams after them are a bit of a longer shot. Just for fun, I've included an NIT projection after the NCAA projection.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati
3: Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan, Auburn
4: Wichita State, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Texas Tech
5: Arizona, Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Arkansas, Houston, Florida, TCU
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Nevada
8: Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Missouri, Virginia Tech
9: Butler, North Carolina State, Providence, Florida State
10: Creighton, Alabama, Kansas State, UCLA
11: Oklahoma, (Texas/USC), Loyola Chicago, (St. Mary's/Middle Tennessee)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, San Diego State, Murray State
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Louisiana, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Charleston
15: Stephen F. Austin, UC Irvine, Wright State, Iona
16: Penn, Lipscomb, (Radford/Hampton), (Texas Southern/LIU Brooklyn)

First Four Out: Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse, Marquette
Next Three Out: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame

Moving In: Middle Tennessee, San Diego State, UC Irvine
Moving Out: Arizona State, Louisville, UC Davis

1: Louisville, Arizona State, Syracuse, Marquette
2: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame, Oregon
3: Penn State, Mississippi State, Nebraska, LSU
4: Georgia, Boise State, Utah, Washington
5: Old Dominion, Stanford, Davidson, Temple
6: Maryland, Tulsa, BYU, Boston College
7: South Dakota, St. John's, Rider, Northern Kentucky
8: UC Davis, Florida Gulf Coast, Wagner, UNC Asheville

Friday, March 9, 2018

Bracketology 3/9/18

Pretty much every bubble team is in action today, buckle up. I don't feel great about the cutline- I might move Middle Tennessee in, I'm going to be doing some scrubbing this afternoon. The loss to Southern Miss hurts a lot, but they played a tough NCSOS and the committee might forgive them for that. Most bubble teams are done playing now, although USC, UCLA and Alabama have a chance to keep racking up nice wins. Bracket coming later today.



1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Cincinnati
3: Auburn, Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan
4: Wichita State, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, West Virginia
5: Arizona, Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, Arkansas, TCU
7: Nevada, Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Seton Hall
8: Rhode Island, Missouri, Creighton, Virginia Tech
9: St. Bonaventure, North Carolina State, Butler, Florida State
10: Oklahoma, Kansas State, Providence, Texas
11: St. Mary's, USC, (UCLA/Alabama), (Arizona State/Louisville)
12: Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Murray State
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Louisiana, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Charleston
15: UC Davis, Penn, Iona, Wright State
16: Lipscomb, Stephen F. Austin, (Radford/Hampton), (LIU-Brooklyn/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Baylor
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Georgia
In Consideration: Oregon, Penn State, LSU, Nebraska, Utah

Moving In: Alabama, Western Kentucky
Moving Out: Marquette, Middle Tennessee

Thursday, March 8, 2018

Bracketology 3/8/18

Arizona State took a bad loss to Colorado last night and is in legitimate danger of missing the field. Syracuse also did not help themselves with a blowout loss against North Carolina. Meanwhile, Louisville got a solid win over Florida State to move into the field, Oklahoma State remains in the conversation with their win over Oklahoma and Marquette avoided disaster against DePaul. Pretty much every bubble team is in action today, buckle up.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, North Carolina, Cincinnati
3: Auburn, Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan
4: Wichita State, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, West Virginia
5: Arizona, Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, TCU, Arkansas
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Nevada, Rhode Island, Creighton, Oklahoma
9: St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Florida State
10: Butler, Kansas State, Texas, St. Mary's
11: Providence, USC, (UCLA/Louisville), Middle Tennessee
12: Loyola Chicago, (Arizona State/Marquette), New Mexico State, Murray State
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Louisiana, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Charleston
15: UC Davis, Penn, Iona, Wright State
16: Lipscomb, Stephen F. Austin, (Radford/Hampton), (LIU-Brooklyn/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Alabama, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Syracuse, LSU, Boise State, Mississippi State
In Consideration: Penn State, Nebraska, Utah, Georgia

Moving In: Louisville, Stephen F. Austin
Moving Out: Alabama, Nicholls State

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Bracketology 3/7/18

Gonzaga smashed BYU last night and I've moved them up to a 4 seed as a result. I shifted a few teams around in the 2 through 5 lines after looking at resumes in detail this morning- I also moved North Carolina back up to a 2. A number of bubble teams face must-wins today: Louisville, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Marquette and Washington among them. Syracuse is close to a must-win against North Carolina as well.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, North Carolina, Cincinnati
3: Auburn, Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan
4: Wichita State, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, West Virginia
5: Arizona, Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, TCU, Arkansas
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, North Carolina State
9: Florida State, St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, Creighton
10: Butler, Kansas State, Arizona State, Texas
11: St. Mary's, Providence, (USC/Marquette), Middle Tennessee
12: Loyola Chicago, (UCLA/Alabama), New Mexico State, Murray State
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Louisiana, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Charleston
15: UC Davis, Penn, Iona, Wright State
16: Lipscomb, Nicholls State, (Radford/Hampton), (LIU-Brooklyn/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Baylor, Syracuse, Louisville, LSU
Next Four Out: Boise State, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, Penn State
In Consideration: Notre Dame, Nebraska, Washington, Utah, Nebraska, Georgia

Moving In: Charleston, LIU-Brooklyn
Moving Out: Northeastern, Wagner

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Bracketology 3/6/18

St. Mary's fell to BYU in the WCC semis and is in some danger of missing the tournament. They'll probably be fine, but the First Four is a definite possibility and if the committee decides to take a harsh stance on non-con SOS I wouldn't be shocked to see them miss the field. BYU's victory makes them a potential bid thief, their true seed will probably be a 12 if they win but they could get moved around to keep them in Thursday/Saturday games. The ACC tournament kicks off today- Syracuse and Notre Dame absolutely need wins.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, Auburn, Cincinnati
3: Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas Tech
4: Michigan, Wichita State, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Clemson, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, TCU, Arkansas
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, North Carolina State
9: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Butler
10: St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Arizona State, Texas
11: St. Mary's, Providence, (USC/Alabama), Middle Tennessee
12: (Marquette/UCLA), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Murray State
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Louisiana, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northeastern, Bucknell
15: UC Davis, Penn, Iona, Wright State
16: Wagner, Lipscomb, (Nicholls State/Radford), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Baylor, Louisville, LSU, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Washington, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State
In Consideration: Nebraska, Utah, Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame

Moving In: Texas, East Tennessee State, Lipscomb
Moving Out: UNC Greensboro, Florida Gulf Coast

Monday, March 5, 2018

Bracketology 3/5/18

4 more bids were punched last night- Loyola Chicago took their fate in their own hands and will not be sweating it out on Sunday. Radford made an insane NBA 3 to seal their bid and Lipscomb survived a furious comeback from FGCU. Michigan had an extremely impressive win over Purdue to win the Big Ten Tournament- I saw all four Michigan games this week in person, and they look incredibly dangerous- they're deep, big, and have lots of guys who can shoot 3s.

I feel pretty uneasy about the 2 and 3 lines- for now, I've moved Auburn and Cincinnati up to a 2 and Michigan State and North Carolina to a 3, but those teams are all very close in my eyes.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, Auburn, Cincinnati
3: Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas Tech
4: Michigan, Wichita State, Arizona, West Virginia
5: Clemson, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, TCU, Arkansas
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, North Carolina State
9: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Butler
10: St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Arizona State
11: Texas, Providence, (USC/Alabama), Middle Tennessee
12: (Marquette/UCLA), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Vermont
13: Buffalo, Louisiana, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: East Tennessee State, Montana, Northeastern, Bucknell
15: UC Davis, Penn, Iona, Wright State
16: Wagner, Lipscomb, (Nicholls State/Radford), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Baylor, Louisville, LSU, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Washington, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State
In Consideration: Nebraska, Utah, Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame

Moving In: Texas, East Tennessee State, Lipscomb
Moving Out: UNC Greensboro, Florida Gulf Coast

Sunday, March 4, 2018

Bracketology 3/4/18

Packed day of hoops throughout the bracket today- bubble teams I have my eye on include Texas (at home against West Virginia), Marquette (at home against Creighton) and Syracuse (at home against Clemson). All of those are winnable, big upside games that could help move each team into the field. Lots of action around the bubble yesterday- Marquette, UCLA and Texas got big wins to move into the field, while Louisville, Baylor and Washington fell out. St. Mary's nearly took a catastrophic loss to Pepperdine but they advanced. And here at the Garden, Michigan got a huge win over Michigan State and Penn State's hopes went up at smoke against Purdue.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina
3: Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Wichita State
4: Texas Tech, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan
5: Clemson, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Kentucky
6: Houston, Florida, TCU, Arkansas
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Missouri, Seton Hall
8: Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, North Carolina State
9: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Butler
10: St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Arizona State
11: Texas, Providence, (USC/Alabama), Middle Tennessee
12: (Marquette/UCLA), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Vermont
13: Buffalo, Louisiana, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northeastern, Bucknell
15: Florida Gulf Coast, UC Davis, Penn, Iona
16: Wright State, Wagner, (Nicholls State/Radford), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Baylor, Louisville, LSU, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Washington, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State
In Consideration: Nebraska, Utah, Penn State, Georgia, Notre Dame

Moving In: Texas, Marquette, UCLA, UC Davis, Wright State
Moving Out: Louisville, Baylor, Washington, UC Irvine, Northern Kentucky

Saturday, March 3, 2018

Bracketology 3/3/18

What a day at MSG- Penn State kept their (slim) hopes alive with a last second win against Ohio State, Purdue and Michigan State gutted out tough wins to advance, and Nebraska's hopes all but disappeared against Michigan. Elsewhere, Rhode Island lost again although losing at Davidson is not nearly as damaging as the home loss to St. Joe's. If the Rams lose in the A-10 quarters, they'll be fine but Selection Sunday will be a little nervy.

Packed day of hoops throughout the bracket today- bubble teams I have my eye on include Texas (at home against West Virginia), Marquette (at home against Creighton) and Syracuse (at home against Clemson). All of those are winnable, big upside games that could help move each team into the field.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: Duke, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina
3: Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Wichita State
4: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Clemson, Arizona
5: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan
6: Houston, TCU, Arkansas, Nevada
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Florida, Seton Hall
8: Missouri, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech
9: Florida State, Creighton, Butler, St. Mary's
10: North Carolina State, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee, St. Bonaventure
11: USC, Kansas State, Alabama, (Providence/Baylor)
12: (Louisville/Washington), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northern Kentucky, Northeastern
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, UC Irvine, Penn
16: Iona, Wagner, (Nicholls State/Radford), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Texas, Mississippi State, Boise State, UCLA
Next Four Out: Marquette, LSU, Nebraska, Syracuse
In Consideration: Utah, Penn State, South Carolina, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State

Moving In: Iona, Radford
Moving Out: Canisius, UNC Asheville

Friday, March 2, 2018

Bracketology 3/2/18

What a collapse by Louisville- they would've been quite safe if they had pulled off that win but now they remain right on the cutline. Middle Tennessee also got a nice win over WKU to move more safely into the field.

I had a blast at the Garden yesterday- all 4 games were close, and the crowd really got behind Rutgers in the nightcap. Today, Nebraska faces a must win against Michigan while MSU, Purdue and Ohio State fight for seeding.

1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: Duke, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina
3: Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Wichita State
4: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Clemson, Ohio State
5: Arizona, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan
6: Houston, TCU, Arkansas, Nevada
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Florida
8: Seton Hall, Missouri, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech
9: Florida State, Creighton, Butler, St. Mary's
10: North Carolina State, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee, St. Bonaventure
11: USC, Kansas State, Alabama, (Providence/Baylor)
12: (Louisville/Washington), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northern Kentucky, Northeastern
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Canisius, UC Irvine
16: Penn, Wagner, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Texas, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Boise State
Next Four Out: UCLA, Marquette, LSU, Syracuse
In Consideration: Utah, South Carolina, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State

Moving In: UC Irvine
Moving Out:UC Santa Barbara

Thursday, March 1, 2018

Bracketology 3/1/18

I arrived in New York last night for the Big Ten tournament, and to pass the time on the trip here I printed out every at-large contender's resume and combed through them. That leads to changes throughout the bracket- beneficiaries include USC and Louisville, while Creighton and Alabama were among the teams who moved down. Louisville has a chance for a season-defining win tonight at home against Virginia, but the most interesting game of the day is in Conference USA as Western Kentucky takes on Middle Tennessee. Even though I have the Hilltoppers in the Next Four Out I think they have virtually no shot at an at-large: they'd have to win out until the tournament final at least. The scenario where CUSA sends 2 teams dancing is where MTSU wins tonight, avoids a bad loss in the conference tourney but loses to Old Dominion/Marshall/WKU.


1: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2: Duke, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina
3: Auburn, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Wichita State
4: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Clemson, Ohio State
5: Arizona, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan
6: Houston, TCU, Arkansas, Nevada
7: Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Florida
8: Seton Hall, Missouri, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech
9: North Carolina State, Florida State, Creighton, Butler
10: St. Mary's, Arizona State, St. Bonaventure, USC
11: Kansas State, Middle Tennessee, Alabama, (Providence/Louisville)
12: (Baylor/Washington), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana
13: Vermont, Buffalo, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Montana, UNC Greensboro, Northern Kentucky, Northeastern
15: Bucknell, UC Santa Barbara, Florida Gulf Coast, Canisius
16: Penn, Wagner, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Hampton/Arkansas Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Texas, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Boise State
Next Four Out: UCLA, Marquette, LSU, Western Kentucky
In Consideration: Syracuse, Utah, South Carolina, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State

Moving In: Louisville, Washington
Moving Out: Texas, Mississippi State