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Showing posts from October, 2018

College Football Week 9 Wrap-Up

Top 25 Numbers in parenthesis are win out probabilities, not including the conference championship game.

1. Alabama (68.0%)
2. Clemson (73.2%)
3. Oklahoma (52.0%)
4. Georgia (48.4%)
5. LSU (13.3%)

Alabama faces their biggest test of the season at LSU this Saturday. I've got Alabama as 11 point favorites, a bit short of the line of 14.5. Even if the Crimson Tide lose, they'll probably still be #1 in my rankings, they still have a giant lead over every one else. However, Clemson is creeping up on them- I'd only have the Tide favored by 4 against Clemson on a neutral field, that number was more like 8 or 9 a few weeks ago.

6. Michigan (25.2%)
7. Ohio State (24.0%)
8. Penn State (23.2%)
9. Notre Dame (31.2%)
10. UCF (59.1%)

A lot of people are saying Michigan will make the playoff, and while it's certainly possible it's probably less than a 1 in 5 chance. I'm a bit lower on them than other models- I have them as 5 point favorites against Penn State, not 10.5 point…

College Football Week 9 Betting Preview

Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
Week 5: 6-2, +4.08 units
Week 6: 0-7, -7.41 units
Week 7: 3-4-1, -1.24 units
Week 8: 2-3, -1.23 units
2018 Season: 27-28-1, -3.00 units
Note: All picks are 1 unit

Miami (FL) @ Boston College

Boston College has been one of the teams I've been high on all year. Their only losses on the year are to NC State and Purdue, both on the road. They're about even with Miami in my eyes- they're both about the 25th best team in the country. I have this line at Boston College -4, they're slightly better than Miami in my eyes.

Pick: Boston College +3.5

Baylor @ West Virginia

I remain perplexed by how high the public is on West Virginia. Their only real impressive win of the season is at Texas Tech, Kansas and Kansas State are quite bad this year. Baylor is a decent team, they have the same Big 12 wins as West Virginia, and really should not be two touchdown underdogs h…

College Football Week 8 Wrap-Up

Top 25 1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. LSU

Alabama remains far ahead of the rest of the pack, but Clemson and Oklahoma are separating from the teams below. Alabama would be about a 6 point favorite on a neutral field against Clemson, 9 points again Oklahoma and 12-14 points against Georgia down through Penn State. Alabama's national title odds have thus actually dropped a hair in the last two weeks in my mind as Clemson and Oklahoma look like more realistic challengers.

6. Michigan
7. Ohio State
8. Purdue
9. Penn State
10. Notre Dame

I have been high on Purdue all season- I had them at #19 last week when they were in no one's top 25, and I was all over them in the preseason as well. Purdue being so high here is largely a function of my ratings being margin of victory based- so the Boilermakers fell relatively little for their early losses and jumped a lot for their big win over Ohio State.

11. Washington
12. UCF
13. Texas
14. Wisconsin
15. Iowa

Washington'…

College Football Week 8 Betting Preview

Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
Week 5: 6-2, +4.08 units
Week 6: 0-7, -7.41 units
Week 7: 3-4-1, -1.24 units
2018 Season: 25-25-1, -1.77 units
Note: All picks are 1 unit

I am in a rush to make it to my tailgate for the MSU/Michigan game. Therefore, I'm just posting my picks and my model's projected spread with no write-up.

Memphis @ Missouri
Pick: Memphis +10 -108 (Model: Memphis +5)

Michigan @ Michigan State
Pick: Michigan State +7.5 -111 (Model: Michigan State +2.5)

UCF @ East Carolina
Pick: UCF -21.5 -106 (Model: UCF -31)

Miami (OH) @ Army
Pick: Army -7.5 -104 (Model: Army -14)

Georgia Southern @ New Mexico State
Pick: Georgia Southern -9.5 -106 (Model: Georgia Southern -19)

College Football Mid-Season Projections

I decided to do something a bit different this week and break down all the Power Five division races and try to assess each team's playoff probabilities. Using my individual game projections, as well as some guesses about what the committee will do in different scenarios, I calculated each Power Five team's (rough) chance at the playoff as well as winning their division and conference.

College Football Week 7 Wrap-Up

There's always at least one weekend in October where a bunch of top 10 teams fall. This year it happened in week 7 as Georgia, West Virginia, Penn State and Washington all lost. The chaos has opened up a whole host of new playoff scenarios, and opened things up for a lot of fringe playoff contenders.

Top 25

College Football Week 7 Betting Preview

Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
Week 5: 6-2, +4.08 units
Week 6: 0-7, -7.41
2018 Season: 22-21, -0.53 units
Note: All picks are 1 unit

Wisconsin @ Michigan

Wisconsin has been pretty far outside the spotlight ever since their loss to BYU but they've put up some solid numbers over the last few weeks, with a nice win in Kinnick over Iowa and blowout wins over New Mexico and Nebraska. The Badgers are still a solid team, definitely one of the 15 or so best in the country. They shouldn't be double digit underdogs against anyone outside the top 5, and Michigan is yet to show they belong in that conversation. My line is Michigan -3.

Pick: Wisconsin +10

Virginia Tech @ North Carolina

UNC was last seen turning the ball over an obscene amount on a Thursday night against Miami. They've had 16 days to prepare for this game- but I still think they're going to get blown out here. Their only win all…