College Football Week 7 Betting Preview
Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
Week 5: 6-2, +4.08 units
Week 6: 0-7, -7.41
2018 Season: 22-21, -0.53 units
Note: All picks are 1 unit
Wisconsin @ Michigan
Wisconsin has been pretty far outside the spotlight ever since their loss to BYU but they've put up some solid numbers over the last few weeks, with a nice win in Kinnick over Iowa and blowout wins over New Mexico and Nebraska. The Badgers are still a solid team, definitely one of the 15 or so best in the country. They shouldn't be double digit underdogs against anyone outside the top 5, and Michigan is yet to show they belong in that conversation. My line is Michigan -3.
Pick: Wisconsin +10
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina
UNC was last seen turning the ball over an obscene amount on a Thursday night against Miami. They've had 16 days to prepare for this game- but I still think they're going to get blown out here. Their only win all year is a nailbiter against Pitt, and they have not been competitive in any of their losses- I was at the Cal game and that was not as close as the score indicated. Virginia Tech is a decent team, and while they're reeling a bit right now I have them as 14 point favorites here.
Pick: Virginia Tech -6
Nebraska @ Northwestern
This line is just crazy to me. Nebraska is one of the teams I've been selling all year, and Northwestern is one of the teams I've been buying all year. Nebraska has done nothing all year that indicates this should be a pick'em on a neutral field- their best game all year was probably last week, a 17 point loss to Wisconsin. I'm not alone here- Northwestern is #47 to Nebraska's #81 in Sagarin, Northwestern is #58 to Nebraska's #71 in S&P+, Northwestern is #59 in the Massey Composite to Nebraska's #103. This is a slam dunk for Northwestern, I have them favored by 15.
Pick: Northwestern -3
Purdue @ Illinois
It is a big indictment on Rutgers that the best team Illinois has beaten, according to Sagarin, is Western Illinois. It also shows that Illinois is really bad- they may have the better record, but Purdue is 8 points away from being 5-0 and has a solid win over Boston College. Illinois is one of the five worst Power Five teams in the country and should be approaching a 20-point dog here, I have Purdue by 18.5.
Pick: Purdue -10.5
UNLV @ Utah State
Utah State has been one of the surprises of the season, demolishing everyone in their path save a close loss at Spartan Stadium. I think they're getting too much credit here though. UNLV is a solid team- they've taken care of business in their two easy games (UTEP and Prairie View) and while the blowout loss to New Mexico doesn't look great, it was by far their worst result of the season. I have the Rebels at #106 and the Aggies at #44- this line should be a bit lower, I have it at Utah State -18.
Pick: UNLV +27
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan has been incredibly unlucky to lose 4 games in a row. They've dropped one possession heart-breakers to Buffalo and Western Michigan, and lost OT games to San Diego State and Northern Illinois as well. Toledo is the team to beat in the MAC West, but Eastern Michigan cannot be ruled out simply on the basis of their 2-4 start. I have the Eagles as 4 point favorites here so they're the pick.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +2.5
New Mexico @ Colorado State
New Mexico bounced back from an upset loss to Liberty by smashing UNLV last week. I am still not sold on Colorado State being anything more than one of the worst teams in FBS- they nearly capitulated against San Jose State last week and their best win is against an absolutely horrid Arkansas team. New Mexico is a respectable G5 team, and Colorado State is not. I have this line at New Mexico -6.5.
Pick: New Mexico PK
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
Week 5: 6-2, +4.08 units
Week 6: 0-7, -7.41
2018 Season: 22-21, -0.53 units
Note: All picks are 1 unit
Wisconsin @ Michigan
Wisconsin has been pretty far outside the spotlight ever since their loss to BYU but they've put up some solid numbers over the last few weeks, with a nice win in Kinnick over Iowa and blowout wins over New Mexico and Nebraska. The Badgers are still a solid team, definitely one of the 15 or so best in the country. They shouldn't be double digit underdogs against anyone outside the top 5, and Michigan is yet to show they belong in that conversation. My line is Michigan -3.
Pick: Wisconsin +10
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina
UNC was last seen turning the ball over an obscene amount on a Thursday night against Miami. They've had 16 days to prepare for this game- but I still think they're going to get blown out here. Their only win all year is a nailbiter against Pitt, and they have not been competitive in any of their losses- I was at the Cal game and that was not as close as the score indicated. Virginia Tech is a decent team, and while they're reeling a bit right now I have them as 14 point favorites here.
Pick: Virginia Tech -6
Nebraska @ Northwestern
This line is just crazy to me. Nebraska is one of the teams I've been selling all year, and Northwestern is one of the teams I've been buying all year. Nebraska has done nothing all year that indicates this should be a pick'em on a neutral field- their best game all year was probably last week, a 17 point loss to Wisconsin. I'm not alone here- Northwestern is #47 to Nebraska's #81 in Sagarin, Northwestern is #58 to Nebraska's #71 in S&P+, Northwestern is #59 in the Massey Composite to Nebraska's #103. This is a slam dunk for Northwestern, I have them favored by 15.
Pick: Northwestern -3
Purdue @ Illinois
It is a big indictment on Rutgers that the best team Illinois has beaten, according to Sagarin, is Western Illinois. It also shows that Illinois is really bad- they may have the better record, but Purdue is 8 points away from being 5-0 and has a solid win over Boston College. Illinois is one of the five worst Power Five teams in the country and should be approaching a 20-point dog here, I have Purdue by 18.5.
Pick: Purdue -10.5
UNLV @ Utah State
Utah State has been one of the surprises of the season, demolishing everyone in their path save a close loss at Spartan Stadium. I think they're getting too much credit here though. UNLV is a solid team- they've taken care of business in their two easy games (UTEP and Prairie View) and while the blowout loss to New Mexico doesn't look great, it was by far their worst result of the season. I have the Rebels at #106 and the Aggies at #44- this line should be a bit lower, I have it at Utah State -18.
Pick: UNLV +27
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan has been incredibly unlucky to lose 4 games in a row. They've dropped one possession heart-breakers to Buffalo and Western Michigan, and lost OT games to San Diego State and Northern Illinois as well. Toledo is the team to beat in the MAC West, but Eastern Michigan cannot be ruled out simply on the basis of their 2-4 start. I have the Eagles as 4 point favorites here so they're the pick.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +2.5
New Mexico @ Colorado State
New Mexico bounced back from an upset loss to Liberty by smashing UNLV last week. I am still not sold on Colorado State being anything more than one of the worst teams in FBS- they nearly capitulated against San Jose State last week and their best win is against an absolutely horrid Arkansas team. New Mexico is a respectable G5 team, and Colorado State is not. I have this line at New Mexico -6.5.
Pick: New Mexico PK
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