College Football Week 9 Wrap-Up

Top 25

Numbers in parenthesis are win out probabilities, not including the conference championship game.

1. Alabama (68.0%)
2. Clemson (73.2%)
3. Oklahoma (52.0%)
4. Georgia (48.4%)
5. LSU (13.3%)

Alabama faces their biggest test of the season at LSU this Saturday. I've got Alabama as 11 point favorites, a bit short of the line of 14.5. Even if the Crimson Tide lose, they'll probably still be #1 in my rankings, they still have a giant lead over every one else. However, Clemson is creeping up on them- I'd only have the Tide favored by 4 against Clemson on a neutral field, that number was more like 8 or 9 a few weeks ago.

6. Michigan (25.2%)
7. Ohio State (24.0%)
8. Penn State (23.2%)
9. Notre Dame (31.2%)
10. UCF (59.1%)

A lot of people are saying Michigan will make the playoff, and while it's certainly possible it's probably less than a 1 in 5 chance. I'm a bit lower on them than other models- I have them as 5 point favorites against Penn State, not 10.5 point favorites, but they'd have to win out to make the playoff in all likelihood. Notre Dame is another team that people are pegging as a likely playoff team that is probably <50% to make it, although the Irish still may be able to get in with a loss.

11. Purdue (32.0%)
12. Utah (38.7%)
13. Washington (41.6%)
14. Iowa (21.1%)
15. Texas (17.9%)

I still have Purdue quite high compared to most models. It's clear that Vegas agrees with me to some extent- they're 3 point favorites at home against Iowa which would indicate they're about equal with the Hawkeyes on a neutral field. Pretty much everybody has the Hawkeyes in the mid teens, so I don't think having Purdue at #11 is completely unreasonable. Utah and Washington still look like the two best teams in the Pac-12, although Washington State is higher in the polls.

16. Mississippi State (4.5%)
17. Iowa State (24.3%)
18. Boston College (5.7%)
19. Fresno State (43.3%)
20. Michigan State (23.6%)

I was very happy to see Iowa State ranked in the first CFP rankings- the Cyclones are a good team that has played an absolutely brutal schedule. The TCU loss doesn't look great now, but they're a legitimate contender in the Big 12. They have their 3 easiest Big 12 games and a trip to Austin left on the schedule but if they win all of those they'd have a good shot at making the Big 12 title game. Similarly, Boston College can't be ruled out as a potential spoiler to Clemson in the ACC Atlantic.

21. West Virginia (3.5%)
22. Missouri (24.4%)
23. Wisconsin (6.5%)
24. Auburn (0.6%)
25. Kentucky (14.6%)

Kentucky enters my top 25 for the first time all season with their win against Missouri. I'm still skeptical of their offense- as is Vegas. They opened as 13.5 (!!!) point underdogs at home against Georgia, but that has been bet down to 9.5. I have them as 7.5 point dogs so I wish I had gotten in on Sunday afternoon at 13.5. Missouri and Auburn are still hanging around the top 25- Missouri is probably the best 0-4 team in conference I've seen, and they'll have a nice recovery against the easy back end of their schedule.

Next Ten: Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Florida, Utah State, Washington State, Army, Stanford, Northwestern, Syracuse


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