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Showing posts from September, 2018

College Football Week 5 Betting Preview

Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +3.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
2018 Season: 16-12, +3.8 units

Syracuse @ Clemson

Clemson is a legitimate national title contender, but they are a definite tier below Alabama, perhaps two. Syracuse is off to a hot start, as they're 4-0 with the big win over Florida State and a solid win over Western Michigan as well. I now project the Orange for 8.0 wins and they're up to #40, creeping towards the top 25. I only have Clemson as a 16 point favorite here, so I'm picking Syracuse.

Pick: Syracuse +25.5

Michigan @ Northwestern

I was very bullish on Northwestern and very bearish on Michigan in the preseason, although neither of those predictions look great now with the Wildcats at 1-2 and Michigan looking dominant since the Notre Dame game. However, I think this line is way off- Northwestern has the win over a good Purdue team and their two losses were very close. They're a 6-6 type team, …

College Football Week 4 Wrap-Up

This weekend saw one of the biggest upsets in recent memory as Old Dominion knocked off Virginia Tech. Old Dominion wasn't even on my radar screen before the game, as they started off 0-3 and plummeted towards the bottom of my rankings. Oklahoma and Army went to overtime- I thought this was a really entertaining game, the triple option run well is really such a joy to watch as Army just marched down the field.

Top 25 1. Alabama
2. Georgia (+1)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-2)
5. Clemson (+1)
Oklahoma falls a bit as a result of the close call with Army. They're still the dominant team in the Big 12 though and are a -150 favorite to win the Big 12. I imagine that the vast majority of rating systems agree with this top 5 and I'm hearing a decent amount of buzz of them being the only teams that can win the title. I would add Penn State to that group but I think the top 6 are a league above the rest.

6. Penn State (-1)
7. Wisconsin (+1)
8. Washington (-1)
9. Auburn (+1)
10. …

College Football Week 4 Betting Preview

Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +3.8 units
2018 Season: 12-10, +2.0 units

TCU @ Texas

TCU was pretty impressive last week against Ohio State, hanging with the Buckeyes all game until two defensive touchdowns blew things open. I was even more impressed with Texas though, as they thoroughly dominated USC. I think that TCU is perhaps being overvalued here due to their visible performance on GameDay last week, and my model has the Longhorns by 6.

Pick: Texas +3

Notre Dame @ Wake Forest
There seems to be a pretty big disconnect between how my model (and other models) sees Notre Dame versus how the public does. I have Notre Dame at #27, 19 spots lower than the AP poll. I'm not alone in this- Sagarin has them at #26. I also have been bullish on Wake Forest all year and think they're not far outside the top 25. My model has Wake by 1, so they're the pick here.

Pick: Wake Forest +8

Kansas State @ West Virginia
There are few prese…

College Football Week 3 Wrap-Up

We had our first big upset of a playoff contender this week as Wisconsin lost at home to BYU. The Badgers, my preseason #2 team behind Alabama, tumbled all the way to #18 in the AP poll- they don't fall as far here though. LSU also went into Auburn and pulled off a big win on a last second field goal, Ohio State won a shootout with TCU and Oklahoma State got a nice win against Boise State.

Top 25 1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Ohio State (+1)
5. Penn State (+1)
As strange as it is to say, I don't think this Alabama team is getting enough credit. They absolutely destroyed Ole Miss this week- 49 points in the first half before they pulled their starters and they're even better than I thought. I would have them as at least a touchdown favorite against any other team in the country on a neutral field.

6. Clemson (+1)
7. Washington (+1)
8. Wisconsin (-4)
9. Mississippi State (+3)
10. Auburn (-1)
Wisconsin should not be falling 12 spots in the AP poll, they under-preformed…

College Football Week 3 Betting Preview

Much like the first two weeks, most of my picks this week are underdogs that I think have been undervalued all season. This will begin to change and my picks will become more of a mix of underdogs and favorites as we get into conference play next week.

Week 0: 1-0 +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4 -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4 -1.4 units
2018 Season: 7-8, -1.8 units

Georgia Southern @ Clemson
Georgia Southern is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt and does not deserve to be almost a 5 touchdown underdog here. They had a nice win over a solid UMass team last week and have a history of close games with Power Five teams. Coming off a tough game against Texas A&M, Clemson isn't going to be amped up for this one. My model has Clemson by 20, so Georgia Southern is the pick.

Pick: Georgia Southern +32.5

Duke @ Baylor
This is the first line this season that has really shocked me. I know that Duke QB Daniel Jones is out indefinitely and the backup Quentin Harris is playing, but Duke, before the injury,…

College Football Week 2 Wrap-Up

This was probably the quietest week we'll have all season. The Clemson/Texas A&M game had a great finish, and there were some other fun games like Colorado/Nebraska and Florida State/Samford. But the second week of the season is often the slowest, as there's not as many marquee matchups as in week 1 but conference play hasn't ramped up yet.

Top 25 1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Wisconsin
5. Ohio State (+1)
Georgia rose significantly after their nice win against South Carolina, but not by enough to pass Oklahoma for #2. Teams 2-5 are a little bit ahead of the next tier, but Alabama is so far ahead of the rest of the pack. The difference between Alabama and Oklahoma is the same as the difference between Oklahoma and #9 Auburn right now.

6. Penn State (+3)
7. Clemson (-2)
8. Washington (-1)
9. Auburn (-1)
10. Stanford (+1)
Penn State more than erased their losses from the Appalachian State game by absolutely demolishing a solid Pitt team on the road. Their next two …

College Football Week 2 Betting Preview

The overall theme of my picks this week is pretty similar to last week. I'm picking primarily underdogs, and primarily teams who I thought were significantly undervalued in the preseason and the market hasn't corrected for that yet. Once again, there's a lot of games where my computer's spread differs from the Vegas spread by at least a touchdown, but those opportunities will go away quickly as everyone's pricing converges as the season progresses. Just like always, all picks are for 1 unit.

Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
2018 Season: 4-4, -0.4 units

Michigan State @ Arizona State

The Spartans struggled a lot with Utah State last week, as they needed a late touchdown and two-point conversion to get past the Aggies. Arizona State had a convincing opener against UTSA. I was bearish on MSU before the season and bullish on ASU, and the week 1 results only confirmed these suspicions. My computer's spread is Arizona State by 1, so I'm on the Sun Dev…

College Football Week 1 Wrap-Up