Top 251. Alabama
5. Ohio State (+1)
Georgia rose significantly after their nice win against South Carolina, but not by enough to pass Oklahoma for #2. Teams 2-5 are a little bit ahead of the next tier, but Alabama is so far ahead of the rest of the pack. The difference between Alabama and Oklahoma is the same as the difference between Oklahoma and #9 Auburn right now.
6. Penn State (+3)
7. Clemson (-2)
8. Washington (-1)
9. Auburn (-1)
10. Stanford (+1)
Penn State more than erased their losses from the Appalachian State game by absolutely demolishing a solid Pitt team on the road. Their next two games are against sub-100 teams in Kent State and Illinois, so all eyes now turn to the massive clash with Ohio State.
11. UCF (-1)
12. Mississippi State (+1)
13. Boston College (-1)
14. Virginia Tech
15. Duke (+11)
Duke got a really nice win against Northwestern and rocketed up into my (pre-injury) top 25. However, starting QB Daniel Jones is out indefinitely. Regardless, the Blue Devils are a solid team and probably the second-best team in the Coastal.
16. Iowa (+2)
17. Oklahoma State (+3)
18. Boise State (+11)
19. Missouri (+14)
20. Michigan (+18)
My prediction of Wyoming to win the MW Mountain division continues to look worse as Boise State demolished UConn and is flying up the rankings. Missouri crushed those Cowboys and has big games with Georgia and Alabama coming up. Michigan also rises a lot after crushing a solid Western Michigan team.
21. NC State (+1)
22. Texas (-5)
23. TCU (+12)
24. Texas A&M (+10)
25. Notre Dame (-9)
TCU and Texas A&M enter my top 25 for the first time this season. The Horned Frogs smashed SMU on the road last week, while Texas A&M took Clemson down to the wire. Notre Dame is much lower here than they are nationally- they take a substantial drop for barely scraping by a really bad Ball State team.
Picks RecapMy picks went 3-4 for the second week in a row. I hit on Arizona State +6.5, Colorado +5 and San Jose State +34.5. Arizona State and Colorado both won straight up as underdogs against Big Ten teams. San Jose State managed to avoid a complete blowout against Washington State to cover as well. On the other hand, Wyoming laid an egg against Missouri and got blown out, failing to cover +18. Fresno State failed to cover +2.5 thanks to a last minute red zone interception, Indiana took the foot off the gas and won but didn't cover -6.5 and Western Michigan got wiped out by Michigan.
Moving Up/Moving Down
Moving Up:1. East Carolina
I had the Pirates #130 out of 130 FBS teams before this week, but they beat North Carolina by 22 as a 16.5 point underdog. I was at the Tar Heels' game in Berkeley week 1 and they looked really abysmal, but they didn't look bad enough to get killed by East Carolina. The Pirates have a long way to go to get back to where they were under Ruffin O'Neill, but this is a nice start.
2. Coastal Carolina
The Chanticleers were also supposed to be one of the worst teams in FBS this year but got a nice win against UAB. They've risen up from #125 to #113 in my model this week. They've got a weird situation this week where they play at Campbell due to the hurricane, but beating a solid UAB team by 3 scores speaks well to their ability to compete in the Sun Belt.
3. Colorado State
Few teams had a worse start to the season than Colorado State, as they lost badly to both Hawaii and Colorado. In fact, I had them in the moving down section last week. It looked like another stinker for them early on but they rallied late to knock off Arkansas.
4. Ball State
Ball State was a 34.5 point underdog at Notre Dame, but managed to keep it close with the Irish all the way through, only losing by 8. This was part of an overall really strong day for the MAC, with Eastern Michigan also beating Purdue.
Kentucky finally broke their long losing streak to Florida on Saturday, knocking off the Gators in Gainesville. I saw a lot of people online who were trying to push the Wildcats as a bowl team before this year, and it looks a lot more possible now. They've got 2 wins already, and I have them favored in 4 more games- Murray State, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Middle Tennessee.
Moving Down:1. Connecticut
UConn had a tough schedule to open up the season, playing what many believed to be the two best teams in the G5 in UCF and Boise State. Both games were blowouts, and this past week the Broncos lit up the Huskies for over 800 yards of total offense. The AAC East is very weak this year outside of UCF so chances for wins in conference definitely still exist.
Pitt got a marquee home game under the lights against Penn State this week, and it didn't go well for the Panthers. They kept it close in the first half but things spun out of control in the second half and they lost by 45. A bowl is still possible though, as there's a lot of teams of similar strength in the Coastal which leads to a lot of winnable games.
3. Western Michigan
I was very high on the Broncos going into the season, and bet on them both against Syracuse and against Michigan. They failed to cover both times and are now tumbling down my rankings. They have a nice tune-up game this week against perennial MEAC bottom feeder Delaware State before MAC play begins.
4. New Mexico State
I thought New Mexico State had a decent shot at a bowl this year but things have spiraled out of control quickly in Las Cruces as they're now 0-3 after a blowout loss to Utah State. The Aggies took Michigan State to the wire the previous week so they're certainly a solid team, but it's still not a good look. Two winnable games against rivals New Mexico and UTEP await.
The 49ers were supposed to be a solid team in Conference USA but weren't competitive with Appalachian State at home this past week. The Mountaineers have looked quite good so far under new QB Zac Thomas, but it doesn't bode well for Charlotte's ability to compete with the top C-USA teams like FAU and Louisiana Tech.