College Football Week 3 Betting Preview
Much like the first two weeks, most of my picks this week are underdogs that I think have been undervalued all season. This will begin to change and my picks will become more of a mix of underdogs and favorites as we get into conference play next week.
Week 0: 1-0 +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4 -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4 -1.4 units
2018 Season: 7-8, -1.8 units
Georgia Southern @ Clemson
Georgia Southern is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt and does not deserve to be almost a 5 touchdown underdog here. They had a nice win over a solid UMass team last week and have a history of close games with Power Five teams. Coming off a tough game against Texas A&M, Clemson isn't going to be amped up for this one. My model has Clemson by 20, so Georgia Southern is the pick.
Pick: Georgia Southern +32.5
Duke @ Baylor
This is the first line this season that has really shocked me. I know that Duke QB Daniel Jones is out indefinitely and the backup Quentin Harris is playing, but Duke, before the injury, was in my top 25 and Baylor is probably the second-worst team in the Big 12. Before the injury, my line on this game was Duke -8, after it is Duke -2.5. That makes the Blue Devils an easy play here.
Pick: Duke +6.5
North Texas @ Arkansas
North Texas got a nice win week 1 against SMU and are looking like strong contenders in Conference USA. In fact, I have the Mean Green all the way up to #55 in my rankings now, #2 in the CUSA just behind #54 Louisiana Tech. Arkansas collapsed against a pretty bad Colorado State team last week and given how strong the SEC West is looking it's gonna be a rough year for the Razorbacks. My model has North Texas by 1, so I'm on them here.
Pick: North Texas +7
Ohio vs. Virginia
I think this line is a classic case of a week 1 overreaction. Ohio, the preseason MAC favorite, struggled a lot with Howard in week 1, but as I mentioned last week my model thinks people overreact to week 1 too much. They had a bye last week to prepare for this game. Virginia is one of the more overrated teams in the country- I bet against them last week against Indiana and I still think they're overpriced here, my model has Ohio by 5, not Virginia by 5.
Pick: Ohio +5
Arkansas State @ Tulsa
Arkansas State had a rough game last week against Alabama, but who doesn't. Tulsa, on the other hand, played Texas very close last week and Phillip Montgomery's team should get back to a bowl this year. I still think the Red Wolves are a bit overrated, although Tulsa could be looking forward to their game next Thursday against Temple.
Pick: Tulsa -1
Troy @ Nebraska
Nebraska is highly overrated this year- I harped about this in the preseason when I called on betting Nebraska under 6.5 wins. I bet against them last week against Colorado and will be doing the same this week against Troy. The Trojans are a strong G5 team, despite their loss to Boise State in week 1. People don't realize how little talent is on this Nebraska roster and think Scott Frost can turn it all around this year- I have the Trojans favored by 1.
Pick: Troy +10
Rutgers @ Kansas
Kansas got a huge win last week at Central Michigan, their first road win in almost a decade. Rutgers, on the other hand, lost 52-3 to Ohio State. I think that Rutgers is the worst Power Five team in the country, and Kansas is not even in the bottom 5- Illinois, Oregon State, Virginia and Tennessee are all worse in my ratings in addition to Rutgers. I think that the Nicholls loss will prove to be a bit of an abberation and Kansas is now projected for 3.6 wins in my model.
Pick: Kansas -2.5
Week 0: 1-0 +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4 -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4 -1.4 units
2018 Season: 7-8, -1.8 units
Georgia Southern @ Clemson
Georgia Southern is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt and does not deserve to be almost a 5 touchdown underdog here. They had a nice win over a solid UMass team last week and have a history of close games with Power Five teams. Coming off a tough game against Texas A&M, Clemson isn't going to be amped up for this one. My model has Clemson by 20, so Georgia Southern is the pick.
Pick: Georgia Southern +32.5
Duke @ Baylor
This is the first line this season that has really shocked me. I know that Duke QB Daniel Jones is out indefinitely and the backup Quentin Harris is playing, but Duke, before the injury, was in my top 25 and Baylor is probably the second-worst team in the Big 12. Before the injury, my line on this game was Duke -8, after it is Duke -2.5. That makes the Blue Devils an easy play here.
Pick: Duke +6.5
North Texas @ Arkansas
North Texas got a nice win week 1 against SMU and are looking like strong contenders in Conference USA. In fact, I have the Mean Green all the way up to #55 in my rankings now, #2 in the CUSA just behind #54 Louisiana Tech. Arkansas collapsed against a pretty bad Colorado State team last week and given how strong the SEC West is looking it's gonna be a rough year for the Razorbacks. My model has North Texas by 1, so I'm on them here.
Pick: North Texas +7
Ohio vs. Virginia
I think this line is a classic case of a week 1 overreaction. Ohio, the preseason MAC favorite, struggled a lot with Howard in week 1, but as I mentioned last week my model thinks people overreact to week 1 too much. They had a bye last week to prepare for this game. Virginia is one of the more overrated teams in the country- I bet against them last week against Indiana and I still think they're overpriced here, my model has Ohio by 5, not Virginia by 5.
Pick: Ohio +5
Arkansas State @ Tulsa
Arkansas State had a rough game last week against Alabama, but who doesn't. Tulsa, on the other hand, played Texas very close last week and Phillip Montgomery's team should get back to a bowl this year. I still think the Red Wolves are a bit overrated, although Tulsa could be looking forward to their game next Thursday against Temple.
Pick: Tulsa -1
Troy @ Nebraska
Nebraska is highly overrated this year- I harped about this in the preseason when I called on betting Nebraska under 6.5 wins. I bet against them last week against Colorado and will be doing the same this week against Troy. The Trojans are a strong G5 team, despite their loss to Boise State in week 1. People don't realize how little talent is on this Nebraska roster and think Scott Frost can turn it all around this year- I have the Trojans favored by 1.
Pick: Troy +10
Rutgers @ Kansas
Kansas got a huge win last week at Central Michigan, their first road win in almost a decade. Rutgers, on the other hand, lost 52-3 to Ohio State. I think that Rutgers is the worst Power Five team in the country, and Kansas is not even in the bottom 5- Illinois, Oregon State, Virginia and Tennessee are all worse in my ratings in addition to Rutgers. I think that the Nicholls loss will prove to be a bit of an abberation and Kansas is now projected for 3.6 wins in my model.
Pick: Kansas -2.5
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