College Football Week 4 Betting Preview

Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +3.8 units
2018 Season: 12-10, +2.0 units

TCU @ Texas

TCU was pretty impressive last week against Ohio State, hanging with the Buckeyes all game until two defensive touchdowns blew things open. I was even more impressed with Texas though, as they thoroughly dominated USC. I think that TCU is perhaps being overvalued here due to their visible performance on GameDay last week, and my model has the Longhorns by 6.

Pick: Texas +3

Notre Dame @ Wake Forest
There seems to be a pretty big disconnect between how my model (and other models) sees Notre Dame versus how the public does. I have Notre Dame at #27, 19 spots lower than the AP poll. I'm not alone in this- Sagarin has them at #26. I also have been bullish on Wake Forest all year and think they're not far outside the top 25. My model has Wake by 1, so they're the pick here.

Pick: Wake Forest +8

Kansas State @ West Virginia
There are few preseason hype trains that have perplexed me as much in recent years as West Virginia this year. They were a pretty average Power Five team last year, and while Will Grier is certainly a great quarterback, they're not exactly loaded with seniors across the field. Kansas State has had a bit of a shaky start to the season, I would've favored them in this game a few weeks ago but now my line is West Virginia -6.

Pick: Kansas State +16

Louisiana Tech @ LSU
As I outlined in my top 25 for the week, I don't think LSU is one of the top 10 teams in the country or really anywhere close to it. Louisiana Tech, on the other hand, is going to go head-to-head with North Texas next week and the winner will have a very good shot at the access bowl. This is a classic case of people undervaluing a strong G5 team, my model only has LSU favored by 11.

Pick: Louisiana Tech +20

FIU @ Miami (FL)
I am still much higher on FIU than most people are- I project the Panthers for 8.5 wins this year, one of the top teams in the CUSA. Miami is a solid team, I have them at #19, but FIU has two solid wins against Old Dominion and UMass and should not be this big of an underdog. I have Miami only favored by 14.

Pick: FIU +26.5

Buffalo @ Rutgers
People still do not realize how bad Rutgers is. I was on Kansas last week at -2.5 against Rutgers, and I'm picking against the Scarlet Knights once again. Buffalo is off to a 3-0 start and could be favored in every remaining game. Rutgers is truly one of the worst Power Five teams- I have this line at Buffalo -15.

Pick: Buffalo -6.5

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