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Showing posts from November, 2018

College Football Week 11 Wrap-Up

I've got a few posts planned this week- bowl projections, playoff probabilities, national champion probabilities and so forth. It was overall a pretty quiet week with all of the committee's top 10 teams winning, but there's a decent amount of movement in my top 25.

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. Michigan
5. Oklahoma

Georgia and Oklahoma swap places as the Bulldogs had a convincing win over Auburn while Oklahoma struggled with Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are a solid team but not one Oklahoma should be going toe to toe with at home.

6. Notre Dame
7. Ohio State
8. West Virginia
9. Mississippi State
10. LSU

West Virginia vaults into my top 10 for the first time all year. With them rising and Oklahoma falling this week, the Mountaineers' chances of winning the Big 12 have increased quite a bit. However, they'd still have to win 3 tough games (at Oklahoma State, vs. Oklahoma, Big 12 title game) in a row to win the conference, not withstanding various tiebreaker scen…

College Football Week 11 Playoff Probabilities

As we approach the end of the regular season, I decided to run some simulations on the rest of the season to determine the probabilities of each team making the playoff. I used my ratings to simulate the rest of the season 100,000 times, and I used a resume ranking system to determine which four teams made the playoff in each simulation. Here's the breakdown for each contender, in descending order of playoff probability:

Clemson: 92.8% Despite being rated lower than Alabama, Clemson's easier schedule down the stretch gives them a slightly higher probability of winning the playoff. The Tigers have a 69% chance of going 13-0, in which case they're a sure-fire lock for the playoff. In 9% of scenarios, the Tigers lose to Boston College but still win the ACC. They make the playoff in roughly 85% of these scenarios- a 12-1 ACC champ will be very hard to leave out. In most of the scenarios where Clemson misses the playoff, they go 12-0 but then lose the ACC championship to the Co…

College Football Week 11 Betting Preview

Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
Week 5: 6-2, +4.08 units
Week 6: 0-7, -7.41 units
Week 7: 3-4-1, -1.24 units
Week 8: 2-3, -1.23 units
Week 9: 4-1-1, +2.94 units
Week 10: 2-5, -3.18 units
2018 Season: 33-34-2, -3.24 units
Note: All picks are 1 unit

Clemson @ Boston College

I've been high on Boston College since the preseason and they're starting to get another round of national hype. Clemson is undoubtedly the number 2 team in the country but I think if there's any team in the ACC who can keep things close with Clemson, it's probably BC. I have this at Clemson -13.5 so the Golden Eagles are the pick.

Pick: Boston College +19.5 -106

Ohio State @ Michigan State

I'm struggling to understand why Ohio State is favored by more than a field goal here. They're consistently in the 6-10 range of most predictive rankings while Michigan State is in the low teens to high 20s. This line is …

College Football Week 10 Wrap-Up

Stay tuned for a post tomorrow breaking down playoff probabilities for every remaining playoff contender

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. Michigan
5. Georgia

Alabama's lead over the rest of the country continues to grow with their demolition of LSU. I'd have them as a 5 point favorite on a neutral field against Clemson, and a 10 point favorite against Oklahoma.

6. Notre Dame
7. UCF
8. Ohio State
9. LSU
10. Mississippi State

Mississippi State is back in the top 10 for the first time in a while after their demolition of Louisiana Tech. Their defense will be able to keep Tua relatively in check, but their offense has struggled against Florida, LSU and Kentucky.

11. Purdue
12. Washington
13. Iowa
14. Missouri
15. Fresno State

I've been high on Missouri all season and that was vindicated as they smacked Florida on the road last weekend. They came very close to winning both the South Carolina and Kentucky games- and if they had won both they'd be 7-2 with their only los…

2018-19 Preseason Bracketology

College hoops season starts on Tuesday, which means it's time for me to roll out my preseason bracketology. Doing this in the preseason is always a bit of a crapshoot- I spent a while digging through various computer rankings, conference media polls, recruiting rankings etc. Things obviously change massively throughout the season though- I would bet there's going to be at least one team who does not  appear in my bracket who earns a protected seed, probably multiple. Similarly, at least one of my protected seeds will miss the tournament entirely. That's part of the fun of this whole exercise though.

Overall, the seed list feels very power-conference heavy to me. Nevada and Gonzaga are the only teams from outside the Power Five+Big East in the top half of the bracket, and there's a lot of schools that I normally think of as mediocre Power Five programs in the bracket. The American, Atlantic 10, WCC and Mountain West feel particularly weak to me- this has been a trend fo…

College Football Week 10 Betting Preview

Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
Week 5: 6-2, +4.08 units
Week 6: 0-7, -7.41 units
Week 7: 3-4-1, -1.24 units
Week 8: 2-3, -1.23 units
Week 9: 4-1-1, +2.94 units
2018 Season: 31-29-2, -0.06 units
Note: All picks are 1 unit

Penn State @ Michigan

I am a bit lower on Michigan than most of the other computer models- I still have them at #6, but I don't think they're that much better than the host of playoff contenders in the 5-12 range of the rankings. Penn State is #8 in my rankings- they've had unlucky close games recently, and are still a top 10 team in my mind. I have this line at Michigan -5, they're a bit better than Penn State but not 7.5 points on a neutral field better.

Pick: Penn State +10.5 -106

Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi State

The Conference USA West is pretty strong this year- North Texas flirted with my top 25 a few weeks ago, UAB only has  one loss, and Louisiana Tech is a…