Friday, December 29, 2017

Bracketology 12/29/17

A number of changes throughout the bracket in this update. First is the Pac-12, as Arizona State is now on the 1 line, although I don't expect them to stay there. UCLA moves into the field, giving the Pac-12 a 3rd team in, although USC and Utah are close. Both mid-majors and the Big Ten are having a weak year as well, and the conference that's capitalizing on these extra bids the most is the SEC. They have 8 teams in, including 6 on the top 7 lines. Expect the next update shortly after New Year's.

1: Villanova, Duke, Michigan State, Arizona State
2: Texas A&M, West Virginia, Virginia, Kansas
3: Purdue, North Carolina, TCU, Xavier
4: Oklahoma, Wichita State, Seton Hall, Tennessee
5: Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami (FL), Arkansas
6: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Auburn, SMU
7: Gonzaga, Missouri, Florida State, Creighton
8: Michigan, Rhode Island, Clemson, Texas
9: St. John's, Alabama, Baylor, Notre Dame
10: Florida, Butler, Boise State, Nevada
11: Virginia Tech, Louisville, (USC/Minnesota), (Syracuse/Maryland)
12: Middle Tennessee, Northern Iowa, New MexicoState, UT-Arlington
13: Vermont, Northern Kentucky, South Dakota, East Tennessee State
14: Bucknell, Murray State, Towson Ball State
15: Princeton, Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Lipscomb
16: UC Santa Barbara, Idaho, (UNC Asheville/ St. Francis (PA)), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: Houston, St. Mary's, USC, Utah
Next Four Out: St. Bonaventure, Florida State, Providence, Middle Tennessee

Moving In: Princeton, East Tennessee State, UNC Asheville, UCLA
Moving Out: Penn, UNC Greensboro, Liberty, Temple

Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Bracketology 12/20/17

Traditionally I put out my first bracket of the season on New Year's Eve, but I decided to do it a little earlier this year because I've been able to watch more college hoops than normal so far this season. At this point in the season, a lot of this is guesswork- the RPI is still pretty erratic, so I'm putting more weight into things like Kenpom and Sagarin than I do later in the season.

I've spent a lot of the time in the last month working with a few classmates on a bracketology model. We're just gathering our final results now- my plan is to make a post on here some time in January about the model.

1: Villanova, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina
2: Arizona State, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Virginia
3: Purdue, Kansas, TCU, Wichita State
4: Oklahoma, Xavier, Kentucky, Miami (FL)
5: Cincinnati, Arizona, Tennessee, Gonzaga
6: Missouri, Seton Hall, Arkansas, Texas Tech
7: Creighton, St. John's, Texas Tech, Auburn
8: Alabama, Florida State, SMU, Michigan
9: Rhode Island, Clemson, Nevada, Baylor
10: Notre Dame, Temple, Syracuse, Florida
11: Boise State, Butler, (Louisville/Texas), (Virginia Tech/Minnesota)
12: Northern Iowa, Middle Tennessee, UT-Arlington, Vermont
13: Northern Kentucky, New Mexico State, South Dakota, Towson
14: UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Idaho, Murray State
15: Ball State, Penn, Lipscomb, Iona
16: UC Santa Barbara, Stephen F. Austin, (Liberty/St. Francis (PA)), (Texas Southern/Morgan State)

Last Four In: Louisville, Texas, Virginia Tech, Minnesota

First Four Out: Maryland, Northern Iowa, Penn State, St. Mary's

Next Four Out: Ohio State, Middle Tennessee, Utah, UCF

Also Considered: Providence, Kansas State, BYU, Houston, UCLA, Oregon, St. Bonaventure, USC, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Washington, Old Dominion, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Iowa State, San Diego State, Marquette, Georgia, Towson, UNLV, UT-Arlington, Georgia Southern, Boston College, Vermont, Fresno State, Colorado