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Showing posts from January, 2017

Bracketology 1/31/17

I did a major re-evaluation of resumes yesterday, so despite the lack of games there's lots of movement in this update. Two ACC teams fall out, knocking the conference total down to 10, as Seton Hall and TCU take their place. There's lots of bubble intrigue in the SEC tomorrow, as the mess that is the middle of the conference largely plays each other. I think it's unlikely the SEC gets 5 teams in at the end of the day and nearly impossible it gets 6, although one of the SEC West teams outside the field could get hot in February.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga
2: Arizona, Louisville, Florida State, Butler
3: Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon
4: Creighton, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, UCLA
5: Duke, Florida, Maryland, West Virginia
6: South Carolina, St. Mary's, Purdue, Notre Dame
7: Xavier, Northwestern, SMU, USC
8: Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Dayton, Arkansas
9: Marquette, VCU, Clemson, Iowa State
10: Kansas State, Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee

Bracketology 1/30/17

Less movement in this update, although Villanova reclaims the #1 overall seed with an impressive win against Virginia. Northwestern got another nice win over Indiana to further distance themselves form the bubble. Also in the Big Ten, Michigan State stopped their skid with a big win over Michigan. Duke/Notre Dame and Oklahoma State/Oklahoma are the only games of interest tonight.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga
2: Arizona, Kentucky, Louisville, Virginia
3: Florida State, Wisconsin, Butler, Cincinnati
4: North Carolina, Oregon, Maryland, West Virginia
5: UCLA, Creighton, South Carolina, Duke
6: St. Mary's, Florida, SMU, Purdue
7: Northwestern, USC, Xavier, Notre Dame
8: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Arkansas
9: Dayton, Michigan State, VCU, Middle Tennessee
10: Marquette, Minnesota, Illinois State, Indiana
11: Kansas  State, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, (Oklahoma State/Miami (FL))
12: (Wake Forest/North Carolina State), UNC Wilmington, East Tennessee State, Nevada
13: Vermont…

Bracketology 1/29/17

Lots of movement all around the bracket in Saturday's games. 4 new at-large teams move into the field, as Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech and Miami (FL) all got big wins to strengthen their case. Lots of movement at the top of the bracket as well, as Kentucky, Florida State, Butler, North Carolina and Oregon all lost. This leads to some shakeups near the top, as Wisconsin moves up despite a narrow win against Rutgers and Louisville moves up as well.

1: Baylor, Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga
2: Arizona, Kentucky, Virginia, Florida State
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Butler, Cincinnati
4: North Carolina, Oregon, Maryland, West Virginia
5: UCLA, Creighton, Purdue, South Carolina
6: Duke, St. Mary's, Florida, SMU
7: Northwestern, USC, Xavier, Notre Dame
8: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Arkansas
9: Dayton, VCU, Middle Tennessee,Marquette
10: Minnesota, Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois State
11: Kansas  State, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, (Oklahoma State/North Carolina State)
12: (…

Bracketology 1/27/17

Last night was relatively quiet, although Michigan did get a big win over Indiana to move into the bracket for the first time in a couple of weeks. Elsewhere, the Crosstown Shootout strengthened Cincinnati's hold on a protected seed and moved Xavier closer to the bubble.

1: Baylor, Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas
2: Kentucky, Arizona, Florida State, Butler
3: North Carolina, Virginia, Cincinnati, Oregon
4: Louisville, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Maryland
5: UCLA, Creighton, Purdue, South Carolina
6: St. Mary's, Florida, Notre Dame, Duke
7: SMU, Northwestern, USC, Xavier
8: Iowa State, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Marquette
9: Dayton, Clemson, Minnesota, Middle Tennessee
10: Michigan State, Kansas State, UNC Wilmington, Indiana
11: VCU, Wake Forest, TCU, Illinois State
12: (North Carolina State/Michigan), (Seton Hall/Pittsburgh), East Tennessee State, Vermont
13: Nevada, Akron, Princeton, Monmouth
14: Valparaiso, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Belmont
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Winthrop, North …

Bracketology 1/26/17

Another 1 seed fell last night, as Florida State was destroyed by Georgia Tech. Kansas jumps back up to the 1-line as a result, after only a 1 day absence. The win for the Yellow Jackets moves them up significantly, but they're still not in the field. Elsewhere, it continues to be a horrible year for non-Power 6 conferences as Rhode Island lost to Richmond, knocking them out of the field. Right now, I only have 3 non-Power 6 teams in that aren't leading their conference.

1: Baylor, Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas
2: Kentucky, Arizona, Florida State, Butler
3: North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon, Louisville
4: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Maryland
5: UCLA, Creighton, Purdue, South Carolina
6: St. Mary's, Florida, Notre Dame, Duke
7: SMU, Xavier, USC, Virginia Tech
8: Northwestern, Iowa State, Arkansas, Marquette
9: Dayton, Indiana, Clemson, Minnesota
10: Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, UNC Wilmington
11: VCU, Wake Forest, TCU, Illinois State
12: (North Carol…

Bracketology 1/25/17

There's a big shakeup on the 1 line as Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova all lose. Kansas and Kentucky both fall to the 2 line, while Villanova cedes the top overall seed to Baylor. Undefeated Gonzaga and Florida State move up to the 1 line. The Zags probably need to go undefeated to get a 1 seed, though they may be able to afford a single loss to St. Mary's. Florida State has more opportunities to pad their resume. At the bubble, Tennessee moves into serious contention with the win over Kentucky and is now my first team out, while Marquette's win over Villanova vaults them off the bubble for now.

1: Baylor, Villanova, Gonzaga, Florida State
2: Kansas, Kentucky, Arizona, Butler
3: North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon, Creighton
4: UCLA, Louisville, Cincinnati, Wisconsin
5: West Virginia, South Carolina, Maryland, Purdue
6: St. Mary's, Florida, Notre Dame, Duke
7: Xavier, Virginia Tech, SMU, Northwestern
8: Iowa State, Minnesota, Arkansas, Marquette
9: Dayton, USC, Indiana, Cl…

Bracketology 1/24/17

The big news of the night is North Carolina State doing what Miami could not on Saturday and beating Duke in Durham. The win vaults the Wolfpack 10 spots up my seed list, enough to get them into a First Four game. There's a number of intriguing games tomorrow, but from a bubble perspective I'll be keeping my eye on Kansas State and Iowa State. A win for either team would go a long ways to getting off the bubble for good.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Florida State,Gonzaga,Arizona, Butler
3: North Carolina, Oregon, Creighton, UCLA
4: Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
5: Wisconsin, South Carolina, Maryland, St. Mary's
6: Florida, Xavier, Duke, West Virginia
7: Purdue, Virginia Tech, SMU, Northwestern
8: Minnesota, Dayton, USC, Michigan State
9: Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas State
10: Clemson, Wake Forest, Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington
11: Marquette, VCU, Seton Hall, (Pittsburgh/TCU)
12: Illinois State, (North Carolina State/Rhode Island),

Bracketology 1/23/17

Little action of note in Sunday's games. Northwestern takes another step on their road to that elusive tourney bid with a win at Ohio State. That loss for the Buckeyes knocks them out of at-large consideration for me, as they have an RPI in the mid-80s and a 2-7 record against the RPI top 50. Elsewhere, USC narrowly avoids a damaging loss at home to Arizona State.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Florida State,Gonzaga,Arizona, Butler
3: North Carolina, Oregon, Creighton, UCLA
4: Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Maryland
6: St. Mary's, Florida, Xavier, West Virginia
7: Purdue, Virginia Tech, SMU, Northwestern
8: Minnesota, Dayton, USC, Michigan State
9: Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas State
10: Clemson, Wake Forest, TCU, Middle Tennessee
11: UNC Wilmington, Marquette, VCU, (Seton Hall/Pittsburgh)
12: Illinois State, (Rhode Island/Illinois), Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Ak…

Bracketology 1/22/17

Lots of movement yesterday, as Marquette got a huge win @ Creighton to move into the bracket. Elsewhere, Arizona beat UCLA and passes them in the bracket, and Florida State is now first in line for a 1-seed should any of the current 1-seeds lose.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Florida State,Gonzaga,Arizona, Butler
3: North Carolina, Oregon, Creighton, UCLA
4: Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke
5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Maryland
6: St. Mary's, Florida, West Virginia, Xavier
7: SMU, Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern
8: Dayton, Virginia Tech, USC, Clemson
9: Michigan State, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa State
10: Kansas State, Wake Forest, TCU, Middle Tennessee
11: UNC Wilmington, Marquette, Seton Hall, (Pittsburgh/VCU)
12: Illinois State, (Rhode Island/Illinois), Chattanooga, Vermont
13: Nevada, Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth
14: Akron, New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Carolina Centr…

Bracketology 1/20/17

A good deal of bubble movement in the last two days as Kansas State and Texas Tech move in due to wins over fellow Big 12 bubble teams Oklahoma State and TCU, while losses cause California and Miami (FL) to drop out. Elsewhere, VCU is in serious bubble trouble after a loss to Fordham, and South Carolina is within striking distance of a protected seed now after a win against Florida. A win at Rupp this weekend might put them on the 3 line.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Creighton, Butler
3: UCLA, North Carolina, Louisville, Arizona
4: Oregon, Virginia, Florida, Notre Dame
5: Duke, South Carolina, Cincinnati, West Virginia
6: Minnesota, Maryland, St. Mary's, Xavier
7: Wisconsin, Purdue, SMU, Northwestern
8: Michigan State, Dayton, Virginia Tech, USC
9: TCU, Clemson, Arkansas, Middle Tennessee
10: UNC Wilmington, Iowa State, Wake Forest, Indiana
11: Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, (Illinois/Kansas State)
12: (Georgia/VCU), Illinois State, Chatta…

Bracketology 1/18/17

1) Relatively few changes today, although NC State's win over Pittsburgh moves both teams closer towards the cut line. There's a number of interesting games tonight, but I'll be keeping my eye on Kansas State @ Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are a talented team and most advanced metrics say they're tourney-worthy, but a loss tonight would put them at 0-6 in the Big 12, meaning they'd probably need to go 8-4 down the stretch to make the tournament.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Creighton, Florida State, Butler
3: UCLA, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida
4: Oregon, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Virginia
5: Arizona, Duke, Cincinnati, Minnesota
6: St. Mary's, Maryland, South Carolina, Xavier
7: Wisconsin, Purdue, SMU, TCU
8: Northwestern, USC, Michigan State, Dayton
9: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, VCU
10: Middle Tennessee, Iowa State, Seton Hall, UNC Wilmington
11: Pittsburgh, Illinois, Indiana, (Georgia/Wake Forest)
12: (California/Miami (FL))…

Bracketology 1/17/17

1) Major changes in this update, as some teams are making legitimate pushes to make the tournament (Georgia, California) while others can't win a conference game to save their lives and are falling out of contention. (North Carolina State, Oklahoma State)

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Creighton, Butler
3: UCLA, North Carolina, Louisville, Florida
4: Oregon, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Virginia
5: Arizona, Duke, Cincinnati, Xavier
6: Minnesota, St. Mary's, Maryland, South Carolina
7: Wisconsin, SMU, Purdue, TCU
8: Northwestern, USC, Michigan State, Dayton
9: Clemson, Virginia Tech, TCU, Middle Tennessee
10: Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Arkansas, Seton Hall
11: Illinois, UNC Wilmington, (Indiana/Georgia), (Wake Forest/California)
12: Illinois State, Chattanooga, Vermont, Nevada
13: Princeton, Valparaiso, Monmouth, Akron
14: New Mexico State, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Richmond
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Winthrop, Weber State
16: North Dakota …

Bracketology 1/12/17

1) Only one change among the at-large teams, as Marquette's win over Seton Hall jumps them into my field for the first time this year while NC State falls out thanks to a loss at Boston College. Considering how brutal the rest of the ACC is, that was a loss the Wolfpack really couldn't afford. Elsewhere, Dayton and Arkansas fall perilously close to the cutline with bad losses to UMass and Mississippi State, helping out the likes of Illinois and Texas Tech.

1: Villanova, Kansas, Kentucky, Baylor
2: Gonzaga, Florida State, Creighton, UCLA
3: North Carolina, Butler, Xavier, West Virginia
4: Notre Dame, Louisville, Duke, Florida
5: Virginia, Arizona, Maryland, Oregon
6: Minnesota, Cincinnati, St. Mary's, Purdue
7: Wisconsin, Clemson, USC, SMU
8: South Carolina, TCU, Northwestern, Virginia Tech
9: Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Indiana, Illinois
10: Iowa State, Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Texas Tech
11: Dayton, (Arkansas/VCU), (Wake Forest/Marquette), Wichita State
12: Middle Tennesse…

Bracketology 1/9/17

1) Most of the movement this update is on the 5-10 lines, as there's no new at-large teams and only two changes among the protected seeds. The most notable bubble action was probably California's win at USC to launch themselves into legitimate consideration, and UT-Arlington's damaging loss to Texas State.

1: Baylor, Villanova, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, UCLA, Florida State, Butler
3: Creighton, North Carolina, Xavier,Duke
4: Notre Dame, Minnesota, Louisville, Virginia
5: Florida, West Virginia, Oregon, Cincinnati
6: Maryland, Arizona, St. Mary's, Purdue
7: Wisconsin, Clemson, USC, SMU
8: South Carolina, Arkansas, Northwestern, Indiana
9: Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, TCU
10: Dayton, Middle Tennessee, Miami (FL), Illinois
11: Michigan State, UNC Wilmington, (Wake Forest/Iowa State), (North Carolina State/Texas Tech)
12: VCU, Wichita State, East Tennessee State, Boise State
13: Oakland, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14: Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Belmon…

Bracketology 1/5/16

1) A considerable amount of movement has happened in the past 3 days, mainly on the bubble. North Carolina State and Texas Tech moved into the bracket with big wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia respectively, and Rhode Island and Oklahoma State fell out as a result.

2) I have 12 of the 15 ACC teams in the field right now- I don't anticipate this will hold up, but I could definitely see 10 ACC teams getting in. It'll be interesting to see how the committee evaluates an ACC team that is 7-11 in conference, as no team that has gone 7-11 in conference has even been under serious bubble consideration in the past 5 years. In fact, only 6 teams with losing conference records have gotten at-larges in the last 5 years.

1: Baylor, Villanova,Kansas, Kentucky
2: Gonzaga, UCLA, Florida State, Butler
3: Creighton, North Carolina, Xavier, Duke
4: Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida, Oregon
5: Minnesota, Virginia, USC, Wisconsin
6: West Virginia, Arizona, St. Mary's, Cincinnati
7: Clem…

Brackteology 1/2/16

1) Most teams have now begun conference play, and thus the general picture of the bracket is beginning to take shape. We're deep enough into the season that most of the top 8 seeds here are going to make the tournament. Just for reference, 28 of the 32 top 8 seeds in my first bracketology last year made the tournament, including all the 5 seeds and above. Also, 11 of the protected seeds in the tournament were protected seeds in my first bracketology of the year. It seems pretty likely that the top of the bracket now looks similar to how it'll look come Selection Sunday.

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: Louisville, Gonzaga, UCLA, Florida State
3: Creighton, Xavier, Duke, Virginia
4: Florida, Butler, North Carolina, Oregon
5: West Virginia, Minnesota, USC, Clemson
6: Notre Dame, Arizona, St. Mary's, Cincinnati
7: Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Maryland, Arkansas
8: SMU, Northwestern, Purdue, Pittsburgh
9: Illinois, TCU, Indiana, Miami (FL)
10: Seton Hall, South Carolina,