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Bracketology 2/29/16

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1) One of the main stories I'm going to be looking out for on Selection Sunday is how the committee views the Pac-12. The Pac-12 scheduled very smart this year and as a result they have 7 teams in the bracket with UCLA and Washington hanging on to a bubble hope. I don't have any of the aforementioned 7 teams as particularly bubbly- but I know I'm higher than most on Oregon State. There's a large disconnect between how the RPI views the Pac-12 and how Kenpom and Sagarin due- obviously I lean towards the latter interpretations but I doubt the committee will. A bad seed for Oregon State could be a signal that the committee is moving away from their ridiculous reliance on the RPI they've had for years, and perhaps will seed the bracket closer to the true strength of teams.

2) Only bubble team of note tonight is Syracuse, and I highly doubt they win in Chapel Hill. If they do, they're essentially a lock.

3) Here's my bracket for today:

1: KansasVillanova, Oklahom…

Bracketology 2/28/16

1) I just ran my model, and this is what it spit out. Lots of movement yesterday- Florida is out of my bracket for the first time this season now and they're in genuine bubble trouble. Vanderbilt makes their first move in since January. I'd consider any team on the top 7 seed lines a lock at this point, and any teams on the 8 or 9 lines as teams that should be in. After that, the bubble begins.
2) Notable bubble games today:
Xavier @ Seton Hall- The Pirates will be very close to  a lock if they win this one.
Houston @ Connecticut- Houston is better than their RPI suggests, but the Huskies will probably be out of my field with a loss.
Duke @ Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh can probably avoid real bubble danger if the win this.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier
2: Oregon, Miami (FL), Virginia, North Carolina
3: Michigan State, West Virginia, Utah, Duke
4: Maryland, Iowa, Iowa State, Kentucky
5: Texas, Baylor, Arizona, Indiana
6: California, Purdue, Texas A&M, Dayton
7: Texas Tech, Notre Da…

Bracketology 2/27/16

1) For likely the last time this season, no change in my bracket today. I'm sure today will be packed full of action throughout the bracket. I'll try to run my model again tomorrow to get the bracket as updated and accurate as possible. I also might trot out some kind of bubble watch column this week, so stay tuned for that.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Xavier, Oklahoma
2: Oregon, Virginia, Miami (FL), Michigan State
3: North Carolina, Maryland, West Virginia, Utah
4: Kentucky, Duke, Iowa, Iowa State
5: Dayton, Purdue, Baylor, Arizona
6: Texas A&M, California, Texas, Indiana
7: Notre Dame, Colorado, Wisconsin, Texas Tech
8: South Carolina, USC, St. Joseph's, Seton Hall
9: Oregon State, Wichita State, Providence, Connecticut
10: Pittsburgh, Tulsa, Florida, Syracuse
11: Monmouth, (Michigan/St. Bonaventure), St. Mary's, (Cincinnati/Butler)
12: Arkansas-LR, Temple, San Diego State, Valparaiso
13: Chattanooga, Akron, Stony Brook, Yale
14: UNC-Wilmington, Hawaii, IPFW, UAB
15: Belmont, Stephe…

Bracketology 2/26/16

1) I never thought Hawaii had a shot at an at-large, but their home loss to UC Riverside late last night dropped them a line and definitely cost them whatever minuscule shot they had. Providence slides into more dangerous territory with their loss to Seton Hall while the Pirates now look pretty good. A quiet night tonight, but Saturday should see a lot of movement around the bubble.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Xavier, Oklahoma
2: Oregon, Virginia, Miami (FL), Michigan State
3: North Carolina, Maryland, West Virginia, Utah
4: Kentucky, Duke, Iowa, Iowa State
5: Dayton, Purdue, Baylor, Arizona
6: Texas A&M, California, Texas, Indiana
7: Notre Dame, Colorado, Wisconsin, Texas Tech
8: South Carolina, USC, St. Joseph's, Seton Hall
9: Oregon State, Wichita State, Providence, Connecticut
10: Pittsburgh, Tulsa, Florida, Syracuse
11: Monmouth, (Michigan/St. Bonaventure), St. Mary's, (Cincinnati/Butler)
12: Arkansas-LR, Temple, San Diego State, Valparaiso
13: Chattanooga, Akron, Stony Brook, Yale
14: U…

Bracketology 2/25/15

1) Wisconsin gets a huge win @Iowa and is nearing lock territory. VCU takes a bad loss at George Mason and falls out, Butler re-enters for the first time in a couple of weeks in their spot. The much anticipated Xavier/Villanova game didn't change my top line, although it made me feel pretty strongly about those 4 being the #1 seeds right now.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Xavier, Oklahoma
2: Oregon, Virginia, Miami (FL), Michigan State
3: North Carolina, Maryland, West Virginia, Utah
4: Kentucky, Duke, Iowa, Iowa State
5: Dayton, Purdue, Baylor, Arizona
6: Texas A&M, California, Texas, Indiana
7: Notre Dame, USC, Colorado, Wisconsin
8: Texas Tech, South Carolina, St. Joseph's, Providence
9: Oregon State, Wichita State, Seton Hall, Connecticut
10: Pittsburgh, Tulsa, Florida, Syracuse
11: Monmouth, (Michigan/St. Bonaventure), St. Mary's, (Cincinnati/Butler)
12: Arkansas-LR, Temple, San Diego State, Valparaiso
13: Chattanooga, Akron, Hawaii, Stony Brook
14: Yale, UNC-Wilmington, IPFW,  UAB
15: 

Bracketology 2/24/16

1) Most of the movement today was at the bottom of the bracket- Tulsa makes a big jump up with their win over Temple, and I removed 3 teams from consideration. We're down to 59 teams with a shot at an at-large now.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier
2: Oregon, Virginia, Miami (FL), Michigan State
3: North Carolina, Maryland, Iowa, West Virginia
4: Utah, Kentucky, Duke, Arizona
5: Iowa State, Dayton, Purdue, Baylor
6: Texas A&M, California, Texas, Indiana
7: Notre Dame, USC, Texas Tech, South Carolina
8; St. Joseph's, Providence, Colorado, Pittsburgh
9: Oregon State, Seton Hall, Connecticut, Wisconsin
10: Tulsa, Florida, (Syracuse/Michigan) Wichita State,
11: Monmouth, (St. Bonaventure/Cincinnati), St. Mary's, VCU
12: Arkansas-LR, Temple, San Diego State, Valparaiso
13: Akron, Chattanooga, Hawaii, Stony Brook
14: Yale, UNC-Wilmington, IPFW,  UAB
15: Belmont, Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, Winthrop
16: Weber State, North Florida, (Wagner/Bucknell), (Hampton/Texas Southern)

Movi…

Bracketology 2/23/16

1) For the first time all year, this bracket is entirely what my model spit out- no teams were moved around by me. Based on the last four years of data, this is my best guess of what the tourney would look like if it were seeded today.
2) As always, a team's placement in the bubble section at the bottom indicates where they would be without an auto-bid, regardless of their current auto-bid status.
3) I was very surprised when my model had Arkansas-LR so high (2nd team out of the field). They're a different kind of resume than say, 2012 Iona, as that team had a top-50 non-con SOS and 5 wins versus the RPI top 100. Little Rock would obviously tumble a bit (likely 7 spots or so) should they lose in their conference tournament, but I wouldn't totally rule out an at-large for them.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier
2: Oregon, Virginia, Miami (FL), North Carolina
3: Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, West Virginia
4: Utah, Duke, Kentucky, Arizona
5: Baylor, Iowa State, Dayton,…

Bracketology 2/22/16

Very little action yesterday, although Temple and Monmouth both almost blew their chance at an at-large but both hung on for road wins. I wanted to look over all the resumes with fresh eyes yesterday as I usually do on Sundays, but because of my schedule that will have to wait until later in the week. There are only 4 games tonight that might effect my bracket- a big one is Texas @ Kansas State where I may remove the Wildcats from consideration if they lose.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma
2: Xavier, North Carolina, Oregon, Michigan State
3: Miami (FL), Maryland, Iowa, Utah
4: Duke, Iowa State,West Virginia, Kentucky
5: Baylor, Arizona, Texas A&M, Texas
6: Indiana, USC, Purdue, Dayton
7: Notre Dame, South Carolina, California, Texas Tech
8: St. Joseph's, Pittsburgh, Providence, Florida
9: Connecticut, Wisconsin, Colorado, Oregon State
10: Syracuse, Seton Hall, Wichita State, Temple
11: (George Washington/Michigan), (Washington/Alabama), Monmouth, St. Mary's
12: VCU, Valparais…

Bracketology 2/21/16

The bubble is beginning to look clearer, as I now only have 17 teams outside the field under consideration. St. Bonaventure made a big move in the right direction with their win over Dayton, and they're now firmly on the bubble. Alabama took a big tumble in the other direction and is now right on the nose of the bubble themselves.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma
2: Xavier, North Carolina, Oregon, Michigan State
3: Miami (FL), Maryland, Iowa, Duke
4: Iowa State,West Virginia, Utah, Kentucky
5: Baylor, USC, Arizona, Texas A&M
6: Texas, Indiana, Purdue, Dayton
7: Notre Dame, South Carolina, California, Texas Tech
8: St. Joseph's, Pittsburgh, Providence, Florida
9: Connecticut, Wisconsin, Colorado, Oregon State
10: Syracuse, Seton Hall, (Michigan/George Washington), Wichita State
11: Temple, (Washington/Alabama), Monmouth, St. Mary's
12: VCU, Valparaiso, Arkansas-LR, San Diego State
13: Chattanooga, Akron, Stony Brook, Yale
14: UNC Wilmington, Hawaii,IPFW, Belmont
15: UAB, Steph…

Bracketology 2/20/16

Only minor changes today- UNC-Wilmington and Yale swap seed lines after Yale's loss to Princeton. More notably, Monmouth tumbles to my first team out of the field from an at-large perspective with their loss to Iona, although they retain the MAAC autobid for now. I think this loss might have sunk their at-large hopes- another one in the conference tournament would be difficult, but not impossible, to come back from. One more regular season loss and they're certainly toast.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Xavier
2: Oklahoma, Miami (FL), Oregon, Michigan State
3: North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Iowa
4: West Virginia, Kentucky, Iowa State, Utah
5: Texas, Dayton, Purdue, Notre Dame
6: USC, Arizona, St. Joseph's, Baylor
7: California, Texas A&M, Indiana, Texas Tech
8: South Carolina, Colorado, Providence, Connecticut
9: Florida, Oregon State, Syracuse, Alabama
10: Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Seton Hall, (Michigan/George Washington)
11: Wichita StateTemple, (Clemson/Washington), Gonzaga
12…

Bracketology 2/19/16

Maryland tumbles all the way down to a 3 seed after their loss to Minnesota. Tulsa got a nice win over Cincinnati to move them closer to the bracket, and Washington has dropped 4 straight and has slid from an 8 seed to the last team in the field in the process.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Xavier
2: Oklahoma, Miami (FL), Oregon, Michigan State
3: North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Iowa
4: West Virginia, Kentucky, Iowa State, Utah
5: Texas, Dayton, Purdue, Notre Dame
6: USC, Arizona, St. Joseph's, Baylor
7: California, Texas A&M, Indiana, Texas Tech
8: South Carolina, Colorado, Providence, Connecticut
9: Florida, Oregon State, Syracuse, Alabama
10: Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Monmouth
11: (Michigan/George Washington), Wichita State, Temple, (Clemson/Washington)
12: Gonzaga, Chattanooga, Valparaiso, San Diego State
13: Arkansas-LR, Akron, Stony Brook, Yale
14: UNC-Wilmington, IPFW, Hawaii, Belmont
15: UAB, Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, Winthrop
16: Weber State, Nor…

Bracketology 2/18/16

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Here's today's bracket, a couple of major changes from yesterday. Maryland makes their first appearance of the year on the 1 line as Oklahoma lost again last night. Buddy Hield is losing his grip on the Wooden Award- perhaps Denzel Valentine has a better chance now? Regardless, that win boosted Texas Tech all the way to the 7 line, St. Joseph's got a big win last night themselves to move up to the 6 line. Moving In: Clemson Moving Out: Florida State Removed from Consideration: Georgetown, Arizona State
First Four Out: Gonzaga, Florida State, VCU, Cincinnati Next Four Out: Butler, LSU, Tulsa. St. Mary's Also Considered: Chattanooga, Valparaiso, Kansas State, St. Bonaventure, UCLA, Stanford, Ohio State, Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Arkansas-LR, Creighton

Bracketology 2/17/16

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Here's today's bracket. Sorry about the strange photo quality- I wrote everything in pencil on pink paper with weird lighting, so it looks very strange.
I didn't update yesterday because literally nothing happened to impact my bracket. I said the other day I'm going to start trimming the "Also Considered" list, and that begins today as I remove Georgia after their home loss to Florida yesterday. I considered removing Creighton as well after their loss to Butler. First Four Out: Clemson, Gonzaga, LSU, St. Bonaventure Next Four Out: VCU, Cincinnati, Butler, Tulsa Also Considered: St. Mary's, Chattanooga, Valparaiso, Kansas State, UCLA, Stanford, Ohio State, Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Arkansas-LR, Georgetown, Arizona State, Creighton

Bracketology 2/15/16

Like my last couple brackets, this one and all others from here on out have a heavy reliance on my model I've developed to predict the committee. I tweaked it a bit today- I reduced the reliance on strength of schedule (both regular and non-conference). I'm still not totally satisfied with the current model, as it's definitely too high on teams like Arkansas Little Rock and Chattanooga that lead 1-bid leagues with good RPIs.

I'm trying to keep the "Also Considered" list more realistic- at this point there's no team outside the also considered list who has a chance at an at-large.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Virginia
2: Maryland, Iowa, Oregon, Xavier
3: Miami (FL), North Carolina, West Virginia, Michigan State
4: Iowa State, Dayton, Kentucky, Duke
5: Utah, Purdue, Notre Dame, Arizona
6: Texas, South Carolina, Texas A&M, USC
7: California, Colorado, Baylor, Providence
8: Indiana, St. Joseph's, Syracuse, Oregon State
9: Florida, Wisconsin, Michig…