Bracketology 2/23/16
1) For the first time all year, this bracket is entirely what my model spit out- no teams were moved around by me. Based on the last four years of data, this is my best guess of what the tourney would look like if it were seeded today.
2) As always, a team's placement in the bubble section at the bottom indicates where they would be without an auto-bid, regardless of their current auto-bid status.
3) I was very surprised when my model had Arkansas-LR so high (2nd team out of the field). They're a different kind of resume than say, 2012 Iona, as that team had a top-50 non-con SOS and 5 wins versus the RPI top 100. Little Rock would obviously tumble a bit (likely 7 spots or so) should they lose in their conference tournament, but I wouldn't totally rule out an at-large for them.
1: Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier
2: Oregon, Virginia, Miami (FL), North Carolina
3: Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, West Virginia
4: Utah, Duke, Kentucky, Arizona
5: Baylor, Iowa State, Dayton, Purdue
6: Texas A&M, California, Texas, Indiana
7: Notre Dame, USC, Texas Tech, South Carolina
8; St. Joseph's, Providence, Colorado, Pittsburgh
9: Florida, Oregon State, Seton Hall, Connecticut
10: Wisconsin, Syracuse, Wichita State, Monmouth
11: (Michigan/Tulsa), (St. Bonaventure/Cincinnati), St. Mary's, Temple
12: VCU, Arkansas-LR, San Diego State, Akron
13: Valparaiso, Stony Brook, Chattanooga, Yale
14: UNC-Wilmington, IPFW, Hawaii, UAB
15: Belmont, Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, Winthrop
16: Weber State, North Florida, (Wagner/Bucknell), (Hampton/Texas Southern)
Moving In: St. Bonaventure, Tulsa, Cincinnati
Moving Out: Alabama, Washington, George Washington
Removed From Consideration: Kansas State
First Four Out: Alabama, Arkansas-LR, Butler, George Washington
Next Four Out: Gonzaga, San Diego State, Washington, Valparaiso
Also Considered: Vanderbilt, Florida State, Clemson, LSU, UCLA, Creighton, Ohio State
2) As always, a team's placement in the bubble section at the bottom indicates where they would be without an auto-bid, regardless of their current auto-bid status.
3) I was very surprised when my model had Arkansas-LR so high (2nd team out of the field). They're a different kind of resume than say, 2012 Iona, as that team had a top-50 non-con SOS and 5 wins versus the RPI top 100. Little Rock would obviously tumble a bit (likely 7 spots or so) should they lose in their conference tournament, but I wouldn't totally rule out an at-large for them.
1: Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier
2: Oregon, Virginia, Miami (FL), North Carolina
3: Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, West Virginia
4: Utah, Duke, Kentucky, Arizona
5: Baylor, Iowa State, Dayton, Purdue
6: Texas A&M, California, Texas, Indiana
7: Notre Dame, USC, Texas Tech, South Carolina
8; St. Joseph's, Providence, Colorado, Pittsburgh
9: Florida, Oregon State, Seton Hall, Connecticut
10: Wisconsin, Syracuse, Wichita State, Monmouth
11: (Michigan/Tulsa), (St. Bonaventure/Cincinnati), St. Mary's, Temple
12: VCU, Arkansas-LR, San Diego State, Akron
13: Valparaiso, Stony Brook, Chattanooga, Yale
14: UNC-Wilmington, IPFW, Hawaii, UAB
15: Belmont, Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State, Winthrop
16: Weber State, North Florida, (Wagner/Bucknell), (Hampton/Texas Southern)
Moving In: St. Bonaventure, Tulsa, Cincinnati
Moving Out: Alabama, Washington, George Washington
Removed From Consideration: Kansas State
First Four Out: Alabama, Arkansas-LR, Butler, George Washington
Next Four Out: Gonzaga, San Diego State, Washington, Valparaiso
Also Considered: Vanderbilt, Florida State, Clemson, LSU, UCLA, Creighton, Ohio State
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