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Showing posts from January, 2016

Bracketology 1/29/16

1) I'm a tier one bracketologist over at theBracket Matrix Rankings, which you should definitely check out. 2) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right. 3) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their auto-bid. 4) All RPI data used for this comes fromWarren Nolan. If you're as much of a college basketball geek as I am, it should be one of your bookmarks along withKenPom and theBracket Matrix. 5) Apologies for the lack of a Wednesday update, I had exams this week so I couldn't get around to it. 6) I did get a chance to run my bracketology model for the first time, and it received a Paymon score of 318, below the Bracket Matrix average. I'll have to fine tune it over the next couple of weeks.

1: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Xavier, Kansas 2: Villanova, Iowa, Oregon, Iowa State 3: Miami (FL), Michigan State, Virginia, Maryland 4: Texas A&M, Utah, West Virginia, Kentucky

Bracketology 1/25/16

1) I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix Rankings, which you should definitely check out. 2) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right. 3) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their auto-bid. 4) All RPI data used for this comes from Warren Nolan. If you're as much of a college basketball geek as I am, it should be one of your bookmarks along with KenPom and the Bracket Matrix. 5) Great weekend of college hoops, although not as much movement at the top of the bracket as the last couple weeks has given us. Only real movement up there is that Iowa is now on my 1 line.
6) I spent a lot of time this weekend working on some long-range stuff- I now have the resumes of every team from 2012-2015 who was in tournament contention in a spreadsheet, and am working on building a model to predict what happens on Selection Sunday. I'll do a test run of the model l…

Bracketology 1/22/16

1) I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix Rankings, which you should definitely check out. 2) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right. 3) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their auto-bid. 4) All RPI data used for this comes from Warren Nolan. If you're as much of a college basketball geek as I am, it should be one of your bookmarks along with KenPom and the Bracket Matrix. 5) Not as many upsets at the top of the bracket in the past two days, but interesting things going on near the bubble. For the first time ever, I have a play-in game on the 10 line. Part of the reason is my new system of awarding auto-bids to the conference leader (leading to VCU and Central Florida being in the field) and part is the historic weakness of the mid-tier conferences this year. 6) I always cheer for low-major at-large bids, but unfortunately the odds of a Monmouth at-…

Bracketology 1/20/16

1) I'm a tier one bracketologist over at the Bracket Matrix Rankings, which you should definitely check out. 2) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right. 3) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their auto-bid. 4) All RPI data used for this comes from Warren Nolan. If you're as much of a college basketball geek as I am, it should be one of your bookmarks along with KenPom and the Bracket Matrix. 5) Lots of jockeying for position at the top, as 3 of my 4 #1 seeds on Monday have lost in the past two nights. I could see an argument for either Xavier or Iowa on the top line as well. Texas A&M finishes the season with an incredibly easy schedule, their last Kenpom tier A opponent is @LSU on February 13th. If they only pick up a loss or two between now and then, look for them on the 1 line in March.
1: Oklahoma, Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas 2: Xavier, Iowa, Texas A&…

Bracketology 1/18/16

1) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right. 2) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their auto-bid. 3) I'm changing how I award auto-bids before the conference tournament. Instead of choosing the KenPom leader from each conference, I'll follow Lunardi's lead and go with the conference leader, with ties broken by RPI. 4) All RPI data used for this comes from Warren Nolan. If you're as much of a college basketball geek as I am, it should be one of your bookmarks along with KenPom and the Bracket Matrix. This leads to some funky teams being in the bracket (such as VCU and Memphis) but it becomes irrelevant by Selection Sunday. 5) Only 7 conferences have at-large bids in this bracket, possibly the lowest number I've ever had in one of my brackets. I'm interested to see how much the Pac-12 cannibalizes itself and whether they can get a majority of their team…

Bracketology 1/15/16

1) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
2) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their autobid.
3) There's some gray area between autobids and at-larges right now: St. Mary's, Cincinnati, UT-Arlington and Valparaiso are all in with autobids but they're all close to the cut-off for an at-large.

1: Oklahoma, Kansas, Xavier, Villanova
2: North Carolina, Michigan State, Virginia, Kentucky
3: Iowa, Miami (FL), Texas A&M, Duke
4: Purdue, Maryland, West Virginia, USC
5: Iowa State, Oregon, Arizona, Pittsburgh
6: Dayton, Providence, Louisville, Baylor
7: Michigan, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Utah
8: George Washington, Butler, Colorado, Florida
9: Texas, Oregon State, Wichita State, UCLA
10: Notre Dame, Alabama, California, St. Joseph's
11: (Stanford/Indiana) Cincinnati, (Gonzaga/Seton Hall), St. Mary's
12: UT-Arlington, Valparaiso, Monmouth, Hawaii
13: Boise State, Yal…

Bracetology 1/11/16

1) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
2) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their autobid.
3) Apologies for the late update, I had the whole thing written up this morning and Blogger deleted it. I've learned my lesson to type this up in Google Docs.

1: Michigan State, Kansas, Xavier, Oklahoma
2: Villanova, North Carolina, Miami (FL), Virginia
3: Kentucky, Iowa State, Maryland, Iowa
4: Texas A&M, Duke, Purdue, Pittsburgh
5: Dayton, Providence, Oregon, South Carolina
6: USC, Texas Tech, Florida, Utah
7: Baylor, West Virginia, Arizona, Louisville
8: Oregon State, George Washington, Butler, UCLA
9: California, Michigan, Wichita State, Colorado
10: Gonzaga, Seton Hall, Texas, Indiana
11: Cincinnati, Georgia, (Notre Dame/Connecticut), (St. Mary's/UT-Arlington)
12: Monmouth, Arkansas-LR, Akron, Valparaiso
13: Chattanooga, South Dakota State, Hawaii, Boise State
14: UAB, Yale,…

Bracketology 1/8/16

1) Remember that all seed lines are read left to right.
2) Teams that are currently projected as auto-bids are listed in the bubble section at the bottom with respect to where they would be without their autobid.
3) Apologies if my updates are not as frequent or accurate as they normally are this time of year. A lot of my energy I normally put into this is going into analyzing the committee's decisions since the field expanded to 68 to try to get my final bracket more accurate.
4) Vanderbilt should probably be in for UT-Arlington, but I couldn't resist putting two Sun Belt teams in the field.

1: Michigan State,Kansas,Xavier, Oklahoma
2: North Carolina,Villanova, Iowa StateVirginia
3: Dayton, Miami (FL), Purdue, Kentucky
4: Texas A&M, Maryland, Duke, Iowa
5: Texas Tech, Providence,Oregon, Pittsburgh
6: West Virginia, Louisville, Texas, Arizona
7: South Carolina, Florida, USC,Butler
8: Colorado, Utah, California, George Washington
9: Oregon State, Seton Hall,Baylor, UCLA
10: Gonzaga, N…