Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Bracketology 1/31/18

Georgia got a nice win at home against Florida to move them into the field. North Carolina is out of the protected seeds for the first time all season in the wake of their 3-game skid, although a home date with Pittsburgh on Saturday should allow the Tar Heels to snap out of the skid. Tonight, I'll be keeping my eye on Butler @ Marquette. With 70% of the Big East in the field, it's going to be a struggle for bubble teams like these two to rack up wins.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas
2: Duke, Xavier, Clemson, Auburn
3: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Michigan State
4: Texas Tech, Arizona, Tennessee, Kentucky
5: Seton Hall, North Carolina, Rhode Island, Wichita State
6: Miami (FL), Ohio State, TCU, Florida
7: Creighton, Texas, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
8: Arizona State, Florida State, Nevada, Alabama
9: Texas A&M, Michigan, Louisville, Providence
10: Arkansas, Butler, Kansas State, North Carolina State
11: Houston, USC, (Georgia/Boise State), Middle Tennessee
12: (Missouri/Marquette), New Mexico State, Louisiana, Loyola Chicago
13: East Tennessee State, Murray State, Vermont, Montana
14: Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Northeastern, Princeton, Stephen F. Austin
16: Rider, Florida Gulf Coast, (Winthrop/Wagner), (Texas Southern/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, LSU
Next Four Out: Washington, SMU, Western Kentucky, Utah
Also Considered: Notre Dame, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, New Mexico State, Mississippi State, Penn State, Oregon, Baylor, St. Bonaventure, Maryland

Moving In: Georgia, Rider
Moving Out: LSU, Iona

Bids by Conference:
SEC: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2

Monday, January 29, 2018

Bracketology 1/29/18

The biggest bubble result of the weekend was North Carolina State's victory in Chapel Hill. The Wolfpack vault into the bracket as a 10 seed. Elsewhere, Duke's loss to Virginia puts Kansas on the 1 line.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas
2: Duke, Xavier, Auburn, Clemson
3: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Michigan State
4: Texas Tech, Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee
5: Kentucky, Seton Hall, Florida, Rhode Island
6: Wichita State, Miami (FL), Arizona State, Creighton
7: Texas, TCU, St. Mary's, Ohio State
8: Gonzaga, Florida State, Nevada, Alabama
9: Arkansas, Michigan, Louisville, Kansas State
10: Providence, Texas A&M, Butler, North Carolina State
11: Houston, USC, Middle Tennessee, (Boise State/LSU)
12: (Missouri/Marquette), New Mexico State, Louisiana, Loyola Chicago
13: East Tennessee State, Murray State, Vermont, Buffalo
14: Montana, Northern Kentucky, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Northeastern, Iona, Princeton
16: Stephen F. Austin, Florida Gulf Coast, (Winthrop/Wagner), (Texas Southern/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Georgia, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Washington
Next Four Out: SMU, Western Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Syracuse
Also Considered: Notre Dame, Utah, UCLA, New Mexico State, Mississippi State, Penn State, Baylor, Oregon, St. Bonaventure, Maryland

Moving In: North Carolina State, South Dakota State, Iona, Stephen F. Austin, North Carolina A&T, Texas Southern
Moving Out: Western Kentucky, South Dakota, Canisius, Nicholls State, Bethune Cookman, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Friday, January 26, 2018

Bracketology 1/26/18

The most surprising result of the night was Penn State winning in Columbus, handing Ohio State their first loss in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes only have two wins over tournament teams, both on their home court, so the addition of a tier 3 loss drops them from a 5 to a 7.

Elsewhere, Utah won in Tempe, moving the Utes closer to the field and dropping Arizona State. With how weak the Pac-12 is, it'll be difficult for the Sun Devils to fight their way back up to a protected seed.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Xavier, Kansas, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
3: West Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, Auburn
4: Texas Tech, Arizona, Michigan State, Seton Hall
5: TCU, Miami (FL), Creighton, Tennessee
6: Florida, Rhode Island, Wichita State, Arizona State
7: Texas, Kentucky, St. Mary's, Ohio State
8: Gonzaga, Nevada, Michigan, Louisville
9: Providence, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Florida State
10: Butler, Kansas State, Houston, Alabama
11: USC, Boise State, (Missouri/Marquette), (Middle Tennessee/LSU)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Louisiana, Murray State
13: East Tennessee State, Northern Kentucky, Vermont, South Dakota
14: Buffalo, Loyola Chicago, Montana, UC Santa Barbara
15: Northeastern, Bucknell, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Canisius, Winthrop, (Wagner/Nicholls State), (Bethune Cookman/Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Georgia, South Carolina, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out: North Carolina State, Utah, SMU, Syracuse
Also Considered: Virginia Tech, Washington, Western Kentucky, Baylor, UCLA, New Mexico State, Penn State, Oregon, Maryland, St. Bonaventure, Mississippi State

Moving In: LSU
Moving Out: SMU
Removed from Consideration: Colorado, UCF, BYU

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Bracketology 1/25/18

The biggest surprise last night was South Carolina's win at Florida. The Gamecocks are now in the First Four Out, where they're joined by fellow SEC teams LSU and Georgia. In addition to those 3, the SEC has 8 teams in this bracket. Mississippi and Vanderbilt are the only teams in the conference not in bracket consideration.

Out west, Nevada fell at Wyoming last night in a double-OT thriller. I was prepared to move the Wolfpack down quite a bit, only to realize that Wyoming's RPI was a shockingly high 58 and so it counts as a tier 1 loss. Thus, Nevada remains in the top half of the bracket.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Xavier, Kansas, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
3: West Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, Auburn
4: Texas Tech, Arizona, Michigan State, Arizona State
5: Seton Hall, TCU, Ohio State, Miami (FL)
6: Creighton, Tennessee, Florida, Rhode Island
7: Wichita State, Texas, Kentucky, Gonzaga
8: St. Mary's, Michigan, Nevada, Louisville
9: Providence, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Florida State
10: Butler, Kansas State, Houston, Alabama
11: USC, Boise State, (Missouri/Marquette), (SMU/Middle Tennessee)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Louisiana, Murray State
13: East Tennessee State, Northern Kentucky, Vermont, South Dakota
14: Buffalo, Loyola Chicago, Montana, UC Santa Barbara
15: Northeastern, Bucknell, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Canisius, Winthrop, (Wagner/Nicholls State), (Bethune Cookman/Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, North Carolina State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Also Considered: Washington, Western Kentucky, Baylor, UCLA, Utah, New Mexico State, Oregon, BYU, Maryland, St. Bonaventure, UCF, Colorado, Mississippi State

Moving In: Middle Tennessee, South Dakota, Nicholls State
Moving Out: Georgia, South Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin

Monday, January 22, 2018

Bracketology 1/23/18

Kansas State got a big win at Baylor to propel them to 4-3 in the Big 12. The Wildcats are a 10 seed now, they're held down by an abysmal non-conference schedule whose best result is a win at Vanderbilt, the worst team in the SEC. Kansas @ Oklahoma will be fascinating tonight, but the bubble action will be in the SEC as Texas A&M travels to Baton Rouge and Arkansas goes to Athens.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Kansas, Xavier, Oklahoma, Clemson
3: Cincinnati, West Virginia, North Carolina, Texas Tech
4: Auburn, Arizona, Michigan State, Florida
5: Arizona State, Seton Hall, TCU, Ohio State
6: Creighton, Tennessee, Miami (FL), Rhode Island
7: Wichita State, Nevada, Texas, Louisville
8: Gonzaga, Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Kentucky
9: Providence, Michigan, Alabama, Florida State
10: Butler, Kansas State, Missouri, Houston
11: Arkansas, Georgia, (USC/Marquette), (Boise State/SMU)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Louisiana, Murray State
13: East Tennessee State, Northern Kentucky, Vermont, Buffalo
14: South Dakota State, Loyola Chicago, Montana, UC Santa Barbara
15: Northeastern, Bucknell, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Stephen F. Austin, Canisius, (Winthrop/Wagner), (Bethune Cookman/Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

First Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, North Carolina State
Next Four Out: Syracuse, LSU, Virginia Tech, Washington
Also Considered: Western Kentucky, Baylor, UCLA, South Carolina, Utah, New Mexico State, Oregon, BYU, Maryland, St. Bonaventure, Mississippi State, Minnesota, UCF, Colorado

Moving In: Bethune Cookman, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Moving Out: North Carolina A&T, Texas Southern

Bracketology 1/22/17

Another busy weekend has changes all throughout the bracket. At the bubble, Houston is the biggest winner as they got a huge win against Wichita State to propel them into the field. The American now has 4 teams in, as many as the Big Ten and more than the Pac-12. The Atlantic 10 is continuing their worst year in memory, as St. Bonaventure dropped their second game in a row. Rhode Island looks quite safe but to have a conference as perennially strong as the A-10 looking like a 1-bid league is striking.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Kansas, West Virginia, Xavier, North Carolina
3: Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Clemson, Texas Tech
4: Auburn, Arizona, Michigan State, Florida
5: Arizona State, Seton Hall, Ohio State, Creighton
6: Tennessee, Miami (FL), TCU, Rhode Island
7: Wichita State, Nevada, Texas, Louisville
8: Gonzaga, Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Kentucky
9: Providence, Michigan, Alabama, Florida State
10: Butler, Missouri, Houston, Arkansas
11: Georgia, USC, (Marquette/Kansas State), (Boise State/SMU)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Louisiana, Murray State
13: East Tennessee State, Northern Kentucky, Vermont, Buffalo
14: South Dakota State, Loyola Chicago, Montana, UC Santa Barbara
15: Northeastern, Bucknell, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Stephen F. Austin, Canisius (Winthrop/Wagner), (Texas Southern/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: North Carolina State, Syracuse, LSU, Washington
Also Considered: Western Kentucky, UCLA, South Carolina, Utah, New Mexico State, Oregon, BYU, Virginia Tech, Maryland, St. Bonaventure, Mississippi State, Minnesota, UCF, Colorado

Moving In: Houston, Kansas State, Loyola Chicago, Northeastern, Murray State, Winthrop, Canisius, Wagner, North Carolina A&T
Moving Out: Notre Dame, Baylor, Missouri State, Towson, Belmont, Radford, Iona, Robert Morris, Hampton

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Bracketology 1/18/18

The Big 12 cannibalism continues as Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech all lost. I think that the conference could be won at 13-5 or maybe even worse. The biggest bubble game in the last few days was SMU picking up a huge win in Wichita, which moves them into the bracket.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Kansas, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Xavier
3: North Carolina, Texas Tech, Seton Hall, Clemson
4: Auburn, Cincinnati, Creighton, Michigan State
5: Arizona, TCU, Arizona State, Ohio State
6: Wichita State, Florida State, Rhode Island, Texas
7: Tennessee, Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Kentucky
8: Michigan, Louisville, Nevada, Missouri
9: Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, Butler
10: Arkansas, St. Mary's, Providence, Boise State
11: Marquette, Florida State, (UCLA/Notre Dame), (SMU/Baylor)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Missouri State, East Tennessee State
13: Murray State, Northern Kentucky, Louisiana, Vermont
14: South Dakota State, Montana, Buffalo, Towson
15: Bucknell, Princeton, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
16: Florida Gulf Coast, UC Davis, (Radford/Robert Morris), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: LSU, Syracuse, USC, North Carolina State
Next Four Out: South Carolina, Houston, Western Kentucky, Kansas State
Also Considered: St. Bonaventure, Washington, Middle Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Utah, BYU, Mississippi State, Maryland, New Mexico State, Missouri State, San Diego State, Oregon, St. John's, UCF

Moving In: Baylor, SMU
Moving Out: Houston, LSU

SEC: 9
ACC: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Bracketology 1/15/18

Most of my update are just tweaks on the previous day's bracket, but today I re-did the whole thing top to bottom. This leads to a lot of changes throughout- major beneficiaries include Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Marquette and LSU while Michigan State, Florida State, Baylor and Maryland are among those hurt by it. The 2-line is all Big 12 teams right now, as those teams beat up on each other some will fall a bit while one or two will make a run at a 1 seed.

However, the biggest headline has to be the presence of 10 SEC teams in the bracket. While the Big 12 is the best conference in the country, the SEC scheduled well in the non-conference and the middle of the conference is exceptionally strong.

I'm going to update more often from here on out- probably 5 days a week or so. Expect daily updates beginning in February.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas, Texas Tech
3: Seton Hall, Auburn, Clemson, Xavier
4: North Carolina, Wichita State, Arizona State, Arizona
5: Michigan State, Cincinnati, TCU, Tennessee
6: Kentucky, Miami (FL), Creighton, Rhode Island
7: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Florida, Michigan
8: Butler, Texas, Arkansas, Nevada
9: Texas A&M, Missouri, Louisville, Florida State
10: Alabama, St. Mary's, Boise State, Notre Dame
11: Marquette, LSU, (Georgia/Houston), (UCLA/Providence)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Missouri State, East Tennessee State
13: Murray State, Northern Kentucky, Louisiana, Vermont
14: South Dakota State, Montana, Buffalo, Towson
15: Bucknell, Princeton, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
16: Florida Gulf Coast, UC Davis, (Radford/Robert Morris), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: Syracuse, USC, North Carolina State, Baylor
Next Four Out: Western Kentucky, St. Bonaventure, Washington, Oklahoma State
Also Considered: Middle Tennessee, Virginia Tech, SMU, San Diego State, South Carolina, Colorado, Utah, Maryland, BYU, Mississippi State, Kansas State, New Mexico State, Minnesota, UCF, Missouri State, Oregon, Penn State, St. John's

Moving In: Marquette, Providence, LSU, Georgia, Western Kentucky, Towson, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast, UC Davis, Radford, Robert Morris
Moving Out: Maryland, Kansas State, Syracuse, Baylor, Middle Tennessee, Northeastern, Penn, Lipscomb, UC Santa Barbara, UNC Asheville, St. Francis (PA)

SEC: 10
ACC: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Bracketology 1/11/18

The most surprising result since my last update is Ohio State's drubbing of Michigan State in Columbus. That drops the Spartans down to a 2, and moves Ohio State safely into the field. Villanova demolished Xavier to cement their place as a 1. Last night, TCU fell to Texas- TCU remains a 5 seed despite now being 1-3 in the Big 12.

Speaking of the Big 12, one number I like to keep my eye on is conference record. No team with a conference record of 7-11 or worse has ever made the tournament- although the Big 12 is so deep this year that I could see say, Baylor or Texas making it this year at 7-11 in the conference.

1: Villanova, West Virginia, Virginia, Duke
2: Oklahoma, Michigan State, Purdue, Kansas
3: Arizona, Texas Tech, North Carolina, Arizona State
4: Auburn, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Wichita State
5: TCU, Creighton, Xavier, Seton Hall
6: Gonzaga, Florida, Miami (FL), Clemson
7: Tennessee, Texas, Arkansas, Texas A&M
8: Florida State, Michigan, Butler, Rhode Island
9: Ohio State, Notre Dame, Missouri, St. Mary's
10: Nevada, UCLA, Boise State, Alabama
11: Baylor, Louisville, (Houston/Syracuse), (Maryland/Kansas State)
12: Middle Tennessee, Vermont, Northern Kentucky, New Mexico State
13: Missouri State, East Tennessee State, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Louisiana, Montana, Bucknell, Northeastern
15: Buffalo, UC Santa Barbara, Lipscomb, Iona
16: Stephen F. Austin, Penn, (UNC Asheville/St. Francis (PA)), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: SMU, St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, Marquette
Next Four Out: Washington, Utah, Temple, Providence
Also Considered: Middle Tennessee, USC, LSU, UCF, Georgia, San Diego State, Mississippi State, Minnesota, Oregon, St. John's, Penn State, BYU, Vermont, Northwestern, Old Dominion, Northern Kentucky, Boston College, New Mexico State, Oklahoma State, Western Kentucky, South Carolina

Moving In: Ohio State, Louisville, Kansas State
Moving Out: Utah, St. Bonaventure, SMU

Sunday, January 7, 2018

Bracketology 1/7/18

4 of the top 8 teams in my last seed list (Duke, Oklahoma, Arizona and Xavier) lost yesterday, leading to a lot of upheaval at the top of the seed list. This is reflected in two new 1 seeds (West Virginia and Virginia) and two new 2 seeds (Kansas and Purdue). Auburn joins the ranks of the protected seeds with a big win over Arkansas and is now projected to win the SEC. However, other SEC teams like Tennessee and Alabama are sliding. It was also a bad day for mid-major at-large bids: Boise State lost at Wyoming and St. Bonaventure lost at St. Joseph's.

1: Michigan State, Villanova, West Virginia, Virginia
2: Duke, Kansas, Oklahoma, Purdue
3: Texas Tech, Arizona, Seton Hall, Xavier
4: TCU, North Carolina, Auburn, Arizona State
5: Wichita State, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Arkansas
6: Creighton, Florida State, Florida, Gonzaga
7: Clemson, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Missouri
8: Notre Dame, Michigan, Butler, Miami (FL)
9: SMU, Rhode Island, Texas, St. Mary's
10: Nevada, UCLA, Baylor, Alabama
11: Houston, Boise State, (Syracuse/Utah), (Maryland/St. Bonaventure)
12: Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, Vermont, Northern Kentucky
13: New Mexico State, East Tennessee State, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Louisiana-Lafayette, Montana, Bucknell, Northeastern
15: Buffalo, UC Santa Barbara, Lipscomb, Iona
16: Stephen F. Austin, Penn, (UNC Asheville/St. Francis (PA)), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: Ohio State, Washington, Providence, Kansas State
Next Four Out: Louisvillle, Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, USC
Also Considered: UCF, Georgia, St. John's, Minnesota, Marquette, Penn State, Mississippi State, Temple, San Diego State, Missouri State, Oregon, BYU, Vermont, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Boston College, Northern Kentucky, New Mexico State, Western Kentucky, South Carolina, Northwestern

Moving In: Northeastern, Penn
Moving Out: Charleston, Princeton

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Bracketology 1/4/18

Lots of changes in the first seed list of 2018. Oklahoma moves up to the 1-line, but I doubt they stay there. The Big 12 is so deep that every team in the league will probably pick up at least 4 or 5 losses in the conference, hindering any one team's chance at a 1. Elsewhere, lots of teams close to the cut-line got important wins, Butler beat Villanova, St. Mary's beat BYU, and Utah swept the Oregon trip, among others.

It is continuing to look like a weak year for mid-major at-large teams. If you define mid-majors as teams outside the 7 biggest conferences and Gonzaga, there's only 2 mid-major at-large teams in the field. Part of this is certainly due to the successful mid-majors moving up over recent years (Butler, Xavier, Creighton, Wichita State etc.) but this year is missing the successful Murray States and Southern Illinois of years past.

1: Duke, Michigan State, Villanova, Oklahoma
2: West Virginia, Virginia, Xavier, Arizona State
3: Arizona, Purdue, Kansas, Texas Tech
4: TCU, North Carolina, Arkansas, Seton Hall
5: Kentucky, Wichita State, Texas A&M, Cincinnati
6: Auburn, Missouri, Florida State, SMU
7: Creighton, Gonzaga, Florida, Tennessee
8: Butler, Michigan, Clemson, Miami (FL)
9: Texas, Alabama, Rhode Island, Notre Dame
10: Boise State, UCLA, St. Mary's, Nevada
11: Syracuse, Houston, (Utah/Maryland), (Baylor/Minnesota)
12: Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Vermont
13: Northern Kentucky, East Tennessee State, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Louisiana-Lafayette, Charleston, Montana, Bucknell
15: UC Santa Barbara, Buffalo, Princeton, Lipscomb
16: Iona, Stephen F. Austin, (UNC Asheville/St. Francis (PA)), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: Louisville, St. John's, Kansas State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Ohio State, St. Bonaventure, USC
Also Considered: UCF, Marquette, Mississippi State, Temple, Providence, Oregon, BYU, San Diego State, Georgia, Penn State, Vermont, Old Dominion, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Washington, Oklahoma State, UNLV, South Carolina, Boston College

Moving In: Houston, St. Mary's, Utah, Missouri State, South Dakota State, Charleston, Buffalo, Montana, Liberty
Moving Out: Virginia Tech, St. John's, Louisville, Northern Iowa, South Dakota, Towson, Ball State, Idaho, UNC Asheville