Sunday, January 14, 2018

Bracketology 1/15/18

Most of my update are just tweaks on the previous day's bracket, but today I re-did the whole thing top to bottom. This leads to a lot of changes throughout- major beneficiaries include Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Marquette and LSU while Michigan State, Florida State, Baylor and Maryland are among those hurt by it. The 2-line is all Big 12 teams right now, as those teams beat up on each other some will fall a bit while one or two will make a run at a 1 seed.

However, the biggest headline has to be the presence of 10 SEC teams in the bracket. While the Big 12 is the best conference in the country, the SEC scheduled well in the non-conference and the middle of the conference is exceptionally strong.

I'm going to update more often from here on out- probably 5 days a week or so. Expect daily updates beginning in February.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Purdue
2: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas, Texas Tech
3: Seton Hall, Auburn, Clemson, Xavier
4: North Carolina, Wichita State, Arizona State, Arizona
5: Michigan State, Cincinnati, TCU, Tennessee
6: Kentucky, Miami (FL), Creighton, Rhode Island
7: Ohio State, Gonzaga, Florida, Michigan
8: Butler, Texas, Arkansas, Nevada
9: Texas A&M, Missouri, Louisville, Florida State
10: Alabama, St. Mary's, Boise State, Notre Dame
11: Marquette, LSU, (Georgia/Houston), (UCLA/Providence)
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Missouri State, East Tennessee State
13: Murray State, Northern Kentucky, Louisiana, Vermont
14: South Dakota State, Montana, Buffalo, Towson
15: Bucknell, Princeton, Iona, Stephen F. Austin
16: Florida Gulf Coast, UC Davis, (Radford/Robert Morris), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: Syracuse, USC, North Carolina State, Baylor
Next Four Out: Western Kentucky, St. Bonaventure, Washington, Oklahoma State
Also Considered: Middle Tennessee, Virginia Tech, SMU, San Diego State, South Carolina, Colorado, Utah, Maryland, BYU, Mississippi State, Kansas State, New Mexico State, Minnesota, UCF, Missouri State, Oregon, Penn State, St. John's

Moving In: Marquette, Providence, LSU, Georgia, Western Kentucky, Towson, Princeton, Florida Gulf Coast, UC Davis, Radford, Robert Morris
Moving Out: Maryland, Kansas State, Syracuse, Baylor, Middle Tennessee, Northeastern, Penn, Lipscomb, UC Santa Barbara, UNC Asheville, St. Francis (PA)

SEC: 10
ACC: 8
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Bracketology 1/11/18

The most surprising result since my last update is Ohio State's drubbing of Michigan State in Columbus. That drops the Spartans down to a 2, and moves Ohio State safely into the field. Villanova demolished Xavier to cement their place as a 1. Last night, TCU fell to Texas- TCU remains a 5 seed despite now being 1-3 in the Big 12.

Speaking of the Big 12, one number I like to keep my eye on is conference record. No team with a conference record of 7-11 or worse has ever made the tournament- although the Big 12 is so deep this year that I could see say, Baylor or Texas making it this year at 7-11 in the conference.

1: Villanova, West Virginia, Virginia, Duke
2: Oklahoma, Michigan State, Purdue, Kansas
3: Arizona, Texas Tech, North Carolina, Arizona State
4: Auburn, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Wichita State
5: TCU, Creighton, Xavier, Seton Hall
6: Gonzaga, Florida, Miami (FL), Clemson
7: Tennessee, Texas, Arkansas, Texas A&M
8: Florida State, Michigan, Butler, Rhode Island
9: Ohio State, Notre Dame, Missouri, St. Mary's
10: Nevada, UCLA, Boise State, Alabama
11: Baylor, Louisville, (Houston/Syracuse), (Maryland/Kansas State)
12: Middle Tennessee, Vermont, Northern Kentucky, New Mexico State
13: Missouri State, East Tennessee State, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Louisiana, Montana, Bucknell, Northeastern
15: Buffalo, UC Santa Barbara, Lipscomb, Iona
16: Stephen F. Austin, Penn, (UNC Asheville/St. Francis (PA)), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: SMU, St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, Marquette
Next Four Out: Washington, Utah, Temple, Providence
Also Considered: Middle Tennessee, USC, LSU, UCF, Georgia, San Diego State, Mississippi State, Minnesota, Oregon, St. John's, Penn State, BYU, Vermont, Northwestern, Old Dominion, Northern Kentucky, Boston College, New Mexico State, Oklahoma State, Western Kentucky, South Carolina

Moving In: Ohio State, Louisville, Kansas State
Moving Out: Utah, St. Bonaventure, SMU

Sunday, January 7, 2018

Bracketology 1/7/18

4 of the top 8 teams in my last seed list (Duke, Oklahoma, Arizona and Xavier) lost yesterday, leading to a lot of upheaval at the top of the seed list. This is reflected in two new 1 seeds (West Virginia and Virginia) and two new 2 seeds (Kansas and Purdue). Auburn joins the ranks of the protected seeds with a big win over Arkansas and is now projected to win the SEC. However, other SEC teams like Tennessee and Alabama are sliding. It was also a bad day for mid-major at-large bids: Boise State lost at Wyoming and St. Bonaventure lost at St. Joseph's.

1: Michigan State, Villanova, West Virginia, Virginia
2: Duke, Kansas, Oklahoma, Purdue
3: Texas Tech, Arizona, Seton Hall, Xavier
4: TCU, North Carolina, Auburn, Arizona State
5: Wichita State, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Arkansas
6: Creighton, Florida State, Florida, Gonzaga
7: Clemson, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Missouri
8: Notre Dame, Michigan, Butler, Miami (FL)
9: SMU, Rhode Island, Texas, St. Mary's
10: Nevada, UCLA, Baylor, Alabama
11: Houston, Boise State, (Syracuse/Utah), (Maryland/St. Bonaventure)
12: Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, Vermont, Northern Kentucky
13: New Mexico State, East Tennessee State, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Louisiana-Lafayette, Montana, Bucknell, Northeastern
15: Buffalo, UC Santa Barbara, Lipscomb, Iona
16: Stephen F. Austin, Penn, (UNC Asheville/St. Francis (PA)), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: Ohio State, Washington, Providence, Kansas State
Next Four Out: Louisvillle, Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, USC
Also Considered: UCF, Georgia, St. John's, Minnesota, Marquette, Penn State, Mississippi State, Temple, San Diego State, Missouri State, Oregon, BYU, Vermont, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Boston College, Northern Kentucky, New Mexico State, Western Kentucky, South Carolina, Northwestern

Moving In: Northeastern, Penn
Moving Out: Charleston, Princeton

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Bracketology 1/4/18

Lots of changes in the first seed list of 2018. Oklahoma moves up to the 1-line, but I doubt they stay there. The Big 12 is so deep that every team in the league will probably pick up at least 4 or 5 losses in the conference, hindering any one team's chance at a 1. Elsewhere, lots of teams close to the cut-line got important wins, Butler beat Villanova, St. Mary's beat BYU, and Utah swept the Oregon trip, among others.

It is continuing to look like a weak year for mid-major at-large teams. If you define mid-majors as teams outside the 7 biggest conferences and Gonzaga, there's only 2 mid-major at-large teams in the field. Part of this is certainly due to the successful mid-majors moving up over recent years (Butler, Xavier, Creighton, Wichita State etc.) but this year is missing the successful Murray States and Southern Illinois of years past.

1: Duke, Michigan State, Villanova, Oklahoma
2: West Virginia, Virginia, Xavier, Arizona State
3: Arizona, Purdue, Kansas, Texas Tech
4: TCU, North Carolina, Arkansas, Seton Hall
5: Kentucky, Wichita State, Texas A&M, Cincinnati
6: Auburn, Missouri, Florida State, SMU
7: Creighton, Gonzaga, Florida, Tennessee
8: Butler, Michigan, Clemson, Miami (FL)
9: Texas, Alabama, Rhode Island, Notre Dame
10: Boise State, UCLA, St. Mary's, Nevada
11: Syracuse, Houston, (Utah/Maryland), (Baylor/Minnesota)
12: Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Vermont
13: Northern Kentucky, East Tennessee State, Murray State, South Dakota State
14: Louisiana-Lafayette, Charleston, Montana, Bucknell
15: UC Santa Barbara, Buffalo, Princeton, Lipscomb
16: Iona, Stephen F. Austin, (UNC Asheville/St. Francis (PA)), (Texas Southern/Hampton)

First Four Out: Louisville, St. John's, Kansas State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Middle Tennessee, Ohio State, St. Bonaventure, USC
Also Considered: UCF, Marquette, Mississippi State, Temple, Providence, Oregon, BYU, San Diego State, Georgia, Penn State, Vermont, Old Dominion, Missouri State, New Mexico State, Washington, Oklahoma State, UNLV, South Carolina, Boston College

Moving In: Houston, St. Mary's, Utah, Missouri State, South Dakota State, Charleston, Buffalo, Montana, Liberty
Moving Out: Virginia Tech, St. John's, Louisville, Northern Iowa, South Dakota, Towson, Ball State, Idaho, UNC Asheville