Showing posts from 2012

Bracketology 1/1/13

Well, it's time for my first bracketology of the 2013 season! I know this is getting published on New Year's Eve, but it's dated 1/1 because it includes the games of 12/31. For the next few weeks, I'll publish a bracket every Monday, and sometime in late January I'll begin making a bracket on Fridays as well. The schedule will accelerate from there. The seed list snakes, meaning you can read a column down for a region. Teams in bold have auto-bids. The pairings follow the seed list.

1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Louisville
2: Florida, Indiana, GonzagaKansas
3: Illinois, Syracuse, Minnesota, Creighton
4: UNLV, Georgetown, North Carolina State, Butler,
5: Cincinnati, New Mexico, Ohio State, VCU,
6: Colorado, Notre Dame, Missouri, Kansas State,
7 :North Carolina, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Michigan State
8: Kentucky, Wichita State, Temple, Wyoming,
9: Maryland, Miami (FL), Pittsburgh, Oregon
10: Colorado State, Memphis, UCLA, Wisconsin
11: Belmont, Boise State, …

Pick Tracker Update: December 27 and News+Notes

Hey guys! First of all, I'm going to address a few things about the blog:
1) I will not be doing NFL Picks this week. Week 17 has historically been an awful week for me, and the psychology of fighting for a playoff berth and resting your starters does not sit well with me. I will be making picks during the playoffs. Because this is the first year I've been doing picks in the playoffs, I'll likely tone down the units.
2) My first bracketology will go up sometime in the next week, probably New Year's Day. I'm already putting my ducks in a row with regards to making the first bracket of the year.
3) My NBA picks may or may not be making a return. I'm leaning towards bringing them back, but we'll see.

All Picks:
+$5057 (50.57 units)

NFL Picks Week 7 2012: +$1105 (+11.05 units)
NFL Picks Week 8 2012: -$1150 (-11.5 units)
NFL Picks Week 9 2012: +$1162 (+11.62 units) 
NFL Picks Week 10 2012: +$580 (+5.8 units)
NFL Picks Week 11 2012: +$8 (+0.08 units)
NFL Picks Week 12 2…

NFL Picks Week 16

Game 1: Atlanta @ Detroit +3.5
Saturday Night Football? Does this mean I have to clear my schedule Saturday night and Sunday night? The Falcons are coming off a home dismantling of the Giants that few people saw coming. The Lions have had close games with good teams lately (Houston and Green Bay come to mind). I'm putting 0 units on the home dog, but I'll place some units if the spread climbs.
Detroit +3.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 2: Tennessee @ Green Bay -10.5
I feel that, more than any other NFL team, the Titans have no identity. They have CJ2K, but even the Dolphins and the Bills have the perennial loser tag attached to them. As for the actual team, Tennessee is in a rut. The Packers are absolutely on fire, and this game could be crucial for playoff seeding purposes. I'll go Green Bay.
Green Bay -10.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 3: Oakland @ Carolina -9
The Raiders won by 15 last week, and their defense did not allow Kansas City to get a first down for quite some time. However, their r…

NFL Picks Week 15

Game 1: Cincinnati @ Philadelphia +2.5
Sorry about my lack of write-ups last week. I still did pretty good, and my phone is working again! So I can actually post this week. The Bengals are certainly very interesting, and still tied for the last playoff spot despite the shocking loss to Dallas at the last second. Nick Foles may be coming around, but Cincy needs this game.
Cincinnati -2.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 2: Green Bay @ Chicago +2.5
I have no idea why the Packers aren't being discussed as co-favorites for the NFC. I'd say Green Bay and the Giants have the best shot at winning the conference. The Packers may have finally found a good running back in Alex Green. The Bears are possibly sliding out of the playoffs. I have no read here, so I'll go with the home dog.
Chicago +2.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 3: New York Giants @ Atlanta -1.5
I feel there's a lot of even matchups this week. Good teams are playing other good teams and bad teams are playing other bad teams. Should make 1…

NFL Picks Week 14

I couldn't write-up my picks this week cause my phone broke. Hopefully it'll be repaired soon, but here are my picks:
Washington -1.5 (2 units) +$200
Indianapolis -3.5 (3 units) +$300
Jacksonville +3 (3 units) -$330
Atlanta -3.5 (1 unit) -$110
Saint Louis +3 (3 units) +$300
Cincinnati -3 (2 units) -$220
Miami +10.5 (1 units) -$110
New York Giants -4.5 (2 units) +$200
New England -3.5 (1 unit) +$100

Total NFL Week 14: +$330
Total NFL 2012: +$2100

NFL Picks Week 13

I was done with the first 3 games, tried to upload it and my Blogger app swallowed it into nothingness. Interesting.
Game 1: New Orleans @ Atlanta -3.5
Finally, an interesting Thursday nighter. No more Dolphins/Bills, Vikings/Buccaneers etc. The Saints are on fire, really playing well since their pitiful 0-4 start. The Falcons have a history of squeaking by at home this year against bad teams like Arizona. I like the Saints for 1.5, keeping it low because I can't get a read on Thursday games.
New Orleans +3.5 (1.5 units) -$165
Under 56 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Seattle @ Chicago -3
Huh? How are the Bears not at least 6 to 7 point favorites? Seattle is not a good team on the road, and an elite team at home. The Bears are one of the best teams in the NFC. I think that Russell Wilson is going to start to falter on the home stretch, so I'm going with the Bears for 2.2 units because I think they're significantly better than Seattle.
Chicago -3 (2.2 units) -$242
Over 37 (0 units) +$0

NBA Picks Early December

NBA Picks 2012: +$5

Philadelphia @ Chicago -6.5
I like the 76ers here, I don't think Chicago is that good and Philly is 10-6.
Philadelphia +6.5 (0.5 units) +$50

Oklahoma City @ New Orleans +8.5
The Hornets are injury-riddled, I like the Thunder here.
Oklahoma City -8.5 (0.8 units) +$80

Memphis @ San Antonio -6.5
I think that the Grizzlies are quite underrated, and I'm not sure San Antonio will be ready for this game after the recent drama surrounding the mass benchings.
Memphis +6.5 (0.8 units) +$80

Pick Tracker Update: November 28, and Bankroll Management

OK guys, I've decided to set up a set bankroll and way I'm making my picks. Don't forget all my picks are entirely fictitious, I never actually make picks with real money. My complete and utter lack of bankroll management hasn't bitten me yet, considering all the good weeks I've been having. However, I'm going to start managing my bankroll now. Here's a quick summary:
1) My bankroll is going to be $10,000, mainly because I already have been using $100 as a unit, and 1 unit is 1% of the bankroll
2) My NBA Picks will likely be getting more units now, shifting to a 0.8/1/1.5 unit system
3) My NFL Picks will likely be getting less units now. What was once a 4 unit picks is now going to be about a 3 unit pick in how confident I feel. Here's a quick breakdown:
Used to be 1 unit pick, now 0.8
Used to be 2 unit pick, now 1.5
Used to be 3 unit pick, now 2.5
Used to be 4 unit pick, now 3
And now, I'm going to be updating my pick tracker to see how I'm doi…

College Football Power Ratings: Week 13

Here's my computer's top 25 for the week. I'm trying out a new wrinkle to my system which I may release an article on later this week, but I haven't implemented it yet. Eerily, my top 5 is the same as the BCS standings.
1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Florida
5. Oregon
6. Oklahoma
7. South Carolina
8. Texas A&M
9. Stanford
10. LSU
11. Kansas State
12. Oklahoma State
13. Ohio State
14. Nebraska
15. Florida State
16. Clemson
17. Texas
18. Baylor
19. Oregon State
20. Michigan
21. USC
22. TCU
23. Penn State
24. UCLA
25. Vanderbilt

That's all for now!

NFL Picks Week 12

Game 1: Detroit @ Houston +3.5
Oh, it's my favorite Thanksgiving tradition! Watching my Lions get massacred while I eat turkey and stuffing. The Lions will be missing left tackle Jeff Sackus, but Louis Delmas will be back. Both are good news for the Lions in my opinion. The Texans are having to travel on a short week after an overtime game, a recipe for disaster. I think Stafford will prove himself this year.
Detroit +3.5 (1 unit) +$100
Over 48.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Washington @ Dallas -3.5
The 'Skins, in my opinion, are one of the more underrated teams in the league. They have a host of losses to good teams and none really to bad teams. Dallas is pretty underrated as well right now, this spread should not have moved 3 points after the Cleveland game. I'll take Dallas for 0.
Dallas -3.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 48 (0 units) -$0
Game 3: New England @ New York Jets +7
The Pats are on a roll, and they haven't lost since the second week of October. However, what most people are t…

College Football Power Ratings Week 12

And Notre Dame steals the number one spot from the Tide! The Tide lost the customary 5% of their rating for playing an FCS squad, and Notre Dame took 100% of the pot against Wake Forest, leading to the takeover at #1. Here's my computer's top 25:
1. Notre Dame 131
2. Alabama 129
3. Georgia 119
4. Oklahoma 108
5. Florida 106
6. Oregon 101
7. Florida State 95
8. South Carolina 95
9. Texas 94
10. Clemson 93
11. LSU 93
12. Kansas State 91
13. Oklahoma State 90
14. Texas A&M 90
15. Nebraska 88
16. Ohio State 87
17. Stanford 83
18. Oregon State 79
19. Rutgers 76
20. UCLA 75
21. Baylor 73
22. USC 72
23. Michigan 68
24. Penn State 62
25. Wisconsin 62

That's all for now!

NBA Picks Late November

NBA Picks 2012-13: -$205
Phoenix @ Toronto -3
Overreaction to the Suns' loss yesterday.
Phoenix +3 (0.5 units) -$55
Brooklyn @ Orlando +4.5
The Nets remain underrated, somehow.
Brooklyn -4.5 (0.8 units) +$80
Portland @ Washington +3
I will continue to fade the god-awful Wizards.
Portland -3 (1 unit) -$110
Phoenix @ Detroit -3.5
The Suns are far better than people give them credit for.
Pheonix +3.5 (0.5 units) -$55

I'm going to be making picks of either 0.5, 0.8 or 1 units for the foreseeable future. I'm developing a system.
Toronto @ Houston -6
The Rockets have made a believer out of me.
Houston -6 (0.8 units) +$80

Considered the Spurs, but I got no play tonight.

I'm going to be generally placing more units now as I'm getting a feel for NBA lines.
San Antonio @ Toronto +6
The Spurs are quite underrated, the Raptors are not within 9 points of an elite team.
San Antonio -6 (0.5 units) -$55

Charlotte @ Washington -4.5
Why on earth is Veg…

The New Developments on the College Football Playoffs... and How it Would Shake Out This Year

Well, in case you haven't seen the bombshell article on ESPN, new details have come out about the way the new college football playoff will work starting in 2014. Here's what's I said wasn't going to happen that is:
1) The Rose and Sugar Bowls WILL take part in the semi-final rotation just like the other 6 bowls
2) There will be NO 7th bowl game
3) The highest ranked "Group of 5" champion will get an AUTOMATIC BID to one of the 6 semi's
4) No Group of 5 team can play in the Rose/Sugar/Orange Bowls unless it's in a semi-final
Here's what we still don't know:
1) Where the first national championship game will be. Atlanta? Tampa? Dallas? Houston? All those names and more have been thrown out there.
2) Which 3 bowls will be the "access bowls". The Fiesta, Peach and Cotton are the early leaders as I suggested.
So, here's how I think it would shake out if the season ended today. I'm going to assume the following semi-final rotation…

NFL Picks Week 11

Quite a solid week at +$580. Solid chunk of change there. The Atlanta game was beyond stressful. How do you not convert when you have 1st and goal when you're undefeated. Uggh. I'm gonna stop the 0.5 on all O/U because it's silly in retrospect. Here we go...
Game 1: Miami @ Buffalo -1
Before we start, I'd like to point out that there was no line I saw and instantly thought "that's a big pick". I had that with Atlanta an Tennessee last week. Back to this game, the Dolphins are coming off a blowout loss to the aforementioned Titans. I normally like picking teams that just got blown out (like the Titans last week!) but the Dolphins should not be considered better than Buffalo by 2 points. I'm not sure the Bills will be up for this game after the heartbreaker against New England. 1 on the Bills.
Unit Change: OK, I've been awful on Thursday Nights this year. But I'll bump this play up.
Buffalo -1 (2 units) +$200
Under 45 (0 units) +$0

Game 2: Philade…

College Football Power Ratings Week 11

Here's my computer's top 25 thorugh Week 11. Alabama is still #1, but their lead shrunk a ton. Rounding off scores to the nearest whole number.

1. Alabama 139
2. Georgia 128
3. Notre Dame 124
4. Florida 115
5. Oklahoma 114
6. Kansas State 110
7. Oregon 107
8. South Carolina 103
9. Texas A&M 97
10. LSU 97
11. Florida State 95
12. Texas 94
13. Clemson 91
14. Nebraska 86
15. Ohio State 84
16. USC 83
17. Oklahoma State 83
18. Oregon State 77
19. Stanford 77
20. Rutgers 70
21. BYU 68
22. Wisconsin 65
23. Michigan 65
24. UCLA 64
25. UCF 62

NFL Picks Week 10

Last Update: Noon Eastern Sunday (Updated spreads, ATL/NO unit change)

+$1162! That's what I call a nice week. I'm putting .5 units on all my O/U picks after how well they did last week.

Game 1: Indianapolis @ Jacksonville +3
The Colts are surprising everyone, including myself. How on earth are they 5-3 without their coach? Andrew Luck is playing like the clear-cut #1 pick he is. The Jaguars have been certifiably awful, suffering a home blowout to the mediocre Lions last week. I'm treating this as a not quite as awesome version of the Baltimore game last week.
Indianapolis -3 (2 units) +$200
Over 42.5 (0.5 units) -$55

Game 2: Buffalo @ New England -13.5
I guess Ryan Lindell must have had some money on Houston, eh? In case you're confused, the Bills kicker missed a 35 yard field goal way wide late so the Bills lost by 12 (the spread was 10.5). The Pats are coming off a bye and a big win in London. I'll place 2 units on the host.
Unit Change: I'm dropping this to 1 unit …

Projected College Football Playoff and BCS Bowls

Hey guys! I think I'm going to make this a weekly feature for the rest of college football season (which is what, all of 8 weeks?). The first part of the post is going to be about my projected college football playoff I discussed in July, except I've kind of changed how I think the playoff is going to look. Here's a quick outline:
There are 7 BCS Bowls. They are:
Fiesta Bowl
Orange Bowl
Cotton Bowl
Peach Bowl
Rose Bowl
Sugar Bowl
Tangerine Bowl
Few notes:
1) In even-numbered years, the Cotton and Orange Bowls host the semis of the 4-team playoff
2) In odd-numbered years, the Peach and Fiesta Bowls host the semis of the 4-team playoff
3) The Rose Bowl will host the Pac-12 and Big 10 champions
4) The Sugar Bowl will host the SEC and Big XII champions
5) Either the Peach or Orange Bowl (whichever is not hosting a semi-final) will house the ACC champion/Notre Dame
6) After the above rules are filled, the 6 main bowls will pick the top remaining teams in the BCS Standings as at-la…

College Football Power Ratings Week 10

Here's my computer's top 25 through week 10. Surprisingly little movement at the top. The number of points that could be on the line in a Alabama-Florida game is absolutely astronomical. However, we do have some major tightening up among teams 2-5.
1. Alabama 154.08
2. Notre Dame 122.54
3. Florida 120.9
4. Georgia 120.82
5. Oklahoma 118.12
6. Oregon 105.53
7. Kansas State 104.38
8. Florida State 98.21
9. South Carolina 96.49
10. LSU 90.78
11. Clemson 89.89
12. Texas 86.02
13. Ohio State 84.14
14. Texas A&M 82.16
15. Oregon State 81.54
16. Nebraska 79.17
17. USC 77.54
18. Oklahoma State 75.85
19. Stanford 72.17
20. BYU 69.8
21. Rutgers 68.33
22. UCLA 68.18
23. UCF 66.51
24. Penn State 65.05
25. North Carolina 64.24
Next 5 out: Michigan, Texas Tech, Louisville, Tennessee, Wisconsin

NBA Picks October and Early November

NBA Picks 2012-13: -$160

Boston @ Brooklyn -4.5
Will Rondo questionable, I'm not sure if Boston will show up against a superior Brooklyn team.
Brooklyn -4.5 (1 unit) +$100
Detroit @ Philadelphia -8
I think tonight will be the night the Pistons finally win.
Detroit +8 (1 unit) +$100
Oklahoma City @ Detroit +7
The Pistons have only covered +7 once this year in seven tries, against a bad Sacramento team.
Oklahoma City -7 (1.5 units) -$165
Miami @ Memphis +2
One of the few times you'll see me take the overrated Heat all year. Even if Wade and LeBron won't be 100%, I like them here.
Miami -2 (1 unit) -$110
Atlanta @ Los Angeles Clippers -6
The Clippers are more than 3 points better than a depleted Atlanta squad.
Los Angeles Clippers -6 (1 unit) +$100
Minor hiatus, but I'm returning.
San Antonio @ Portland +3
I'll put 1 unit on the impressive Blazers.
Portland +3 (1 unit) Push +-$0
Dallas @ Charlotte +6.5
The Mavs are pretty bad without Nowitzki.

NBA Season Preview

Well, since I'm going to be doing NBA picks, I figured I'd roll out a season preview. I'm kind of picking everything up as I go along, this is going to be my first year follow the NBA as closely as I do the NFL/College Football. In a few days, I might do a post talking about how awfully my MLB season preview I made in April was. Here goes.

Eastern Conference (regular season):

1. Miami Heat
2. New York Knicks
3. Chicago Bulls
4. Indiana Pacers
5. Boston Celtics
6. Brooklyn Nets
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
8. Atlanta Hawks
9. Philadelphia 76ers
10. Washington Wizards
11. Milwaukee Bucks
12. Detroit Pistons
13. Orlando Magic
14. Toronto Raptors
15. Charlotte Bobcats

The Heat are, obviously, the odds on favorite to win the East. I think it's pretty close to a sure thing that they have the best regular season record in the East, but winning the East in the playoffs is another deal entirely. You never know if they're going to run into a roadblock like the Pacers almost were l…

NFL Picks Week 9

4:00 and later picks will be up by 2:00
Blegh. I guess you balance out your good weeks with your bad ones. Depending on how Monday night goes tonight, I might be in the red on the year. One thing I took note of was how well my over/under picks did. I may pit more units on those this week, depends how I feel.

Game 1: Kansas City @ San Diego -7.5
Both of these team are coming off losses to some of the NFL's worst teams. Kansas City went down to a pretty bad Oakland team, while the Chargers fell to the hapless Browns. I'm going small on the visitor, as I think San Diego will win by less than a touchdown.
Unit Change:
I'm bumping this up to 2. The Chargers should not be favored by more than a TD against anybody.
Kansas City +7.5 (2 units) -$220
Under 44.5 (0 units) +$0

Game 2: Denver @ Cincinnati +5
I'm really not sure what to think of this game. On one hand, Denver is absolutely on fire right now. On the other hand, Cincy is is a home dog coming off a bye, always a good pl…