NFL Picks Week 9
4:00 and later picks will be up by 2:00
Blegh. I guess you balance out your good weeks with your bad ones. Depending on how Monday night goes tonight, I might be in the red on the year. One thing I took note of was how well my over/under picks did. I may pit more units on those this week, depends how I feel.
Game 1: Kansas City @ San Diego -7.5
Both of these team are coming off losses to some of the NFL's worst teams. Kansas City went down to a pretty bad Oakland team, while the Chargers fell to the hapless Browns. I'm going small on the visitor, as I think San Diego will win by less than a touchdown.
Unit Change:
I'm bumping this up to 2. The Chargers should not be favored by more than a TD against anybody.
Kansas City +7.5 (2 units) -$220
Under 44.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Denver @ Cincinnati +5
I'm really not sure what to think of this game. On one hand, Denver is absolutely on fire right now. On the other hand, Cincy is is a home dog coming off a bye, always a good play. I like both sides here, so I'm going to lay off the units.
Unit Change: I don't know why this line just jumped a point and a half. I'll place a unit on the host.
Cincinnati +5 (1 unit) -$110
Over 47.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 3: Arizona @ Green Bay -10
I guess this is the space for me to complain about Monday Night Football? Did the Cards just decide to not show up? I was going to take off the unit on them so I wouldn't go red on the year, but decided against it. Sigh. I'm not sure who to lay units on here, as the Cards looked awful and Green Bay struggled with the Jags.
Green Bay -10 (0 units) +$0
Over 43 (0 units) +$0
Game 4: Miami @ Indianapolis +1.5
I will admit that when I first saw this line, I thought dyslexia had gotten the best of me and that was a -, not a +. My second reaction was that I would be all over the Colts, until I realized everyone else would be as well. I'm really not sure the Colts are that good, I think the Dolphins are 3-4 points better. I'm gonna fade the public here.
Miami -1.5 (2 units) -$220
Under 43.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 5: Detroit @ Jacksonville +5.5
Both of these teams are coming off solid covers where they were receiving very little action, making this a difficult game to handicap. The Lions are certainly defying my expectations, but are they really 7 points better than Jacksonville? Can Jacksonville play like they did last week, or will Blaine Gabbert play like Blaine Gabbert? I don't have a read on this one, going with the Jags cause they're a home dog.
Unit Change: Neither of these teams have very good defenses, and the O/U is pretty low. I'll put $50 on the over.
Jacksonville +5.5 (0 units) -$0
Over 44 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 6: Buffalo @ Houston -10.5
This matchup is a major breather alert for the Texans. They're so far ahead of everyone else in the AFC South that I'm not sure how seriously they're going to take this one. The Bills are still very much in the hunt in the AFC East. I'll put a unit on Buffalo.
Unit Change: I'm not feeling as comfortable about this. The Bills are getting blown out a lot. I'm dropping the unit.
Buffalo +10.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 47.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 7: Chicago @ Tennessee +4.5
Well, the Titans failed me last week and the Bears did as well. I'm really not sure where I stand on Tennessee, as I think it depends on where I stand on the Colts. I'll say I think the Titans will go 7-9. The Bears are, in my opinion, the 3rd best team in a top-heavy NFC. They can hang with anyone in the league, including Tennessee. You won't catch the Bears breathing in this one, they have the Vikings and Packers hot on their tail. Bears for 2.
Unit Change: I'm dropping this to 1 unit. I just don't feel as confident.
Chicago -4.5 (1 unit) +$100
Over 44 (0 units) +$0
Game 8: Carolina @ Washington -3
I've decided I'm going to scrap the terrible triangle theory. It just hasn't been working lately as a be-all, end-all thing. Washington has hung with every team they've played, except the Pittsburgh game. Surprisingly, the Panthers have also hung with their opposition in pretty much every game. Their last 4 losses are by a combined 10 points. I'm not sure how up for this game the Skins are going to be after 2 tough losses to good teams. 1 on the Panthers.
Unit change: I'm feeling more confident on Carolina, especially since the spread has stayed at 3. Bumping it to 3. Additionally, both these teams have good offenses, so I'll take $50 on the over.
Carolina +3 (3 units) +$300
Over 48 (0.5 units) -$50
Game 9: Baltimore @ Cleveland +3.5
Gotta hurry these picks up since it's Sunday morning. This looks like a classic "Vegas knows more than the bettor" spread. Baltimore only needs to beat the Browns by 4? Easy money! That's not the reason I like Baltimore. The Ravens are not nearly as bad as people think from the Houston game. I'm not going 4 units on Baltimore because I'm a little wary of the spread past 3.
Baltimore -3.5 (3 units) +$300
Under 44.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 10: Minnesota @ Seattle -4
Well, Seattle is at home, and I think they normally get a 4 point edge for home field (with their loud crowd). So Vegas is saying that the Vikings and Seahawks are equally matched. I don't buy that. Christian Ponder is a slightly worse than average quarterback, while Russell Wilson is slightly better than average. Seattle is just more gritty, and has more experience than this young Minnesota team. The Vikings are starting to slide downhill, I'm going 3 on the Seahawks. I'll also put half a unit on the over, I have no idea why the O/U is in the 30's.
Seattle -4 (3 units) +$300
Over 38.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 11: Tampa Bay @ Oakland -1
I don't have a real read on this one. The Raiders have looked quite solid since their bye going 2-1, but their wins are over a bad Jacksonville team and a worse Kansas City one. However, they did hang with the undefeated Falcons. However, Tampa Bay has also looked better than expected since their bye. These are 2 teams that I really think could either surprise or flounder in the next few weeks. I'll go Oakland cause I think they're maybe a point worse than Tampa.
Oakland -1 (0 units) -$0
Under 47 (0 units) -$0
Game 12: Pittsburgh @ New York Giants -3.5
The first thing that I'm thinking about this one is the fact that the Steelers are arriving in New York the morning of the game. I have no idea if this isn't going to be a factor at all (likely) or it's going to make them far less prepared (probably unlikely). The Giants however, are one of, if not the best team in football while the Steelers probably clock in around #9. I think the Giants are 4-5 points ahead of Pittsburgh, so I'll place 3 units on them.
New York Giants -3.5 (3 units) -$330
Under 47.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 13: Dallas @ Atlanta -4
I learned my lesson about picking against the Falcons last week in the Philly/Atlanta game. Granted, those were the unstable Eagles, but these are the unstable Cowboys. I don't see any way that any logical person could make an argument that Dallas is within 1 point of Atlanta on a neutral field. This spread isn't screaming too good to be true at me either. I'm placing my 4 unit pick here.
Atlanta -4 (4 units) +$400
Over 47.5 (0 units)
Game 14: Philadelphia @ New Orleans -3
I really don't know which side to like here. I was planning on picking against both these sides this week before I realized they were playing each other. The Eagles have been pretty dissapointing the last few weeks. Meanwhile, the Saints seem to finally coming out of their funk. I don't really like either side, 0 units on New Orleans. I'll put a unit on the under, as neither of these teams have spectacular offenses.
New Orleans -3 (0 units) +$0
Under 51.5 (1 unit) +$100
Prop/Teaser/Pleasers:
Moneyline: Kansas City +290 (1 unit) -$110
Moneyline: Carolina +152 (1 unit) +$152
Teaser: Chicago +2.5, Baltimore +2.5 (2.5 units) +$250
I'm dropping the 'Skins from my teaser, as I'm more skeptical about them after more research.
Teaser: Seattle +2, Atlanta +2 (2 units) +$200
I don't see either of these teams losing at home to unstable squads.
NFL Picks Week 9: +$1162
Total NFL 2012: +$1117
Blegh. I guess you balance out your good weeks with your bad ones. Depending on how Monday night goes tonight, I might be in the red on the year. One thing I took note of was how well my over/under picks did. I may pit more units on those this week, depends how I feel.
Game 1: Kansas City @ San Diego -7.5
Both of these team are coming off losses to some of the NFL's worst teams. Kansas City went down to a pretty bad Oakland team, while the Chargers fell to the hapless Browns. I'm going small on the visitor, as I think San Diego will win by less than a touchdown.
Unit Change:
I'm bumping this up to 2. The Chargers should not be favored by more than a TD against anybody.
Kansas City +7.5 (2 units) -$220
Under 44.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Denver @ Cincinnati +5
I'm really not sure what to think of this game. On one hand, Denver is absolutely on fire right now. On the other hand, Cincy is is a home dog coming off a bye, always a good play. I like both sides here, so I'm going to lay off the units.
Unit Change: I don't know why this line just jumped a point and a half. I'll place a unit on the host.
Cincinnati +5 (1 unit) -$110
Over 47.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 3: Arizona @ Green Bay -10
I guess this is the space for me to complain about Monday Night Football? Did the Cards just decide to not show up? I was going to take off the unit on them so I wouldn't go red on the year, but decided against it. Sigh. I'm not sure who to lay units on here, as the Cards looked awful and Green Bay struggled with the Jags.
Green Bay -10 (0 units) +$0
Over 43 (0 units) +$0
Game 4: Miami @ Indianapolis +1.5
I will admit that when I first saw this line, I thought dyslexia had gotten the best of me and that was a -, not a +. My second reaction was that I would be all over the Colts, until I realized everyone else would be as well. I'm really not sure the Colts are that good, I think the Dolphins are 3-4 points better. I'm gonna fade the public here.
Miami -1.5 (2 units) -$220
Under 43.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 5: Detroit @ Jacksonville +5.5
Both of these teams are coming off solid covers where they were receiving very little action, making this a difficult game to handicap. The Lions are certainly defying my expectations, but are they really 7 points better than Jacksonville? Can Jacksonville play like they did last week, or will Blaine Gabbert play like Blaine Gabbert? I don't have a read on this one, going with the Jags cause they're a home dog.
Unit Change: Neither of these teams have very good defenses, and the O/U is pretty low. I'll put $50 on the over.
Jacksonville +5.5 (0 units) -$0
Over 44 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 6: Buffalo @ Houston -10.5
This matchup is a major breather alert for the Texans. They're so far ahead of everyone else in the AFC South that I'm not sure how seriously they're going to take this one. The Bills are still very much in the hunt in the AFC East. I'll put a unit on Buffalo.
Unit Change: I'm not feeling as comfortable about this. The Bills are getting blown out a lot. I'm dropping the unit.
Buffalo +10.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 47.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 7: Chicago @ Tennessee +4.5
Well, the Titans failed me last week and the Bears did as well. I'm really not sure where I stand on Tennessee, as I think it depends on where I stand on the Colts. I'll say I think the Titans will go 7-9. The Bears are, in my opinion, the 3rd best team in a top-heavy NFC. They can hang with anyone in the league, including Tennessee. You won't catch the Bears breathing in this one, they have the Vikings and Packers hot on their tail. Bears for 2.
Unit Change: I'm dropping this to 1 unit. I just don't feel as confident.
Chicago -4.5 (1 unit) +$100
Over 44 (0 units) +$0
Game 8: Carolina @ Washington -3
I've decided I'm going to scrap the terrible triangle theory. It just hasn't been working lately as a be-all, end-all thing. Washington has hung with every team they've played, except the Pittsburgh game. Surprisingly, the Panthers have also hung with their opposition in pretty much every game. Their last 4 losses are by a combined 10 points. I'm not sure how up for this game the Skins are going to be after 2 tough losses to good teams. 1 on the Panthers.
Unit change: I'm feeling more confident on Carolina, especially since the spread has stayed at 3. Bumping it to 3. Additionally, both these teams have good offenses, so I'll take $50 on the over.
Carolina +3 (3 units) +$300
Over 48 (0.5 units) -$50
Game 9: Baltimore @ Cleveland +3.5
Gotta hurry these picks up since it's Sunday morning. This looks like a classic "Vegas knows more than the bettor" spread. Baltimore only needs to beat the Browns by 4? Easy money! That's not the reason I like Baltimore. The Ravens are not nearly as bad as people think from the Houston game. I'm not going 4 units on Baltimore because I'm a little wary of the spread past 3.
Baltimore -3.5 (3 units) +$300
Under 44.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 10: Minnesota @ Seattle -4
Well, Seattle is at home, and I think they normally get a 4 point edge for home field (with their loud crowd). So Vegas is saying that the Vikings and Seahawks are equally matched. I don't buy that. Christian Ponder is a slightly worse than average quarterback, while Russell Wilson is slightly better than average. Seattle is just more gritty, and has more experience than this young Minnesota team. The Vikings are starting to slide downhill, I'm going 3 on the Seahawks. I'll also put half a unit on the over, I have no idea why the O/U is in the 30's.
Seattle -4 (3 units) +$300
Over 38.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 11: Tampa Bay @ Oakland -1
I don't have a real read on this one. The Raiders have looked quite solid since their bye going 2-1, but their wins are over a bad Jacksonville team and a worse Kansas City one. However, they did hang with the undefeated Falcons. However, Tampa Bay has also looked better than expected since their bye. These are 2 teams that I really think could either surprise or flounder in the next few weeks. I'll go Oakland cause I think they're maybe a point worse than Tampa.
Oakland -1 (0 units) -$0
Under 47 (0 units) -$0
Game 12: Pittsburgh @ New York Giants -3.5
The first thing that I'm thinking about this one is the fact that the Steelers are arriving in New York the morning of the game. I have no idea if this isn't going to be a factor at all (likely) or it's going to make them far less prepared (probably unlikely). The Giants however, are one of, if not the best team in football while the Steelers probably clock in around #9. I think the Giants are 4-5 points ahead of Pittsburgh, so I'll place 3 units on them.
New York Giants -3.5 (3 units) -$330
Under 47.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 13: Dallas @ Atlanta -4
I learned my lesson about picking against the Falcons last week in the Philly/Atlanta game. Granted, those were the unstable Eagles, but these are the unstable Cowboys. I don't see any way that any logical person could make an argument that Dallas is within 1 point of Atlanta on a neutral field. This spread isn't screaming too good to be true at me either. I'm placing my 4 unit pick here.
Atlanta -4 (4 units) +$400
Over 47.5 (0 units)
Game 14: Philadelphia @ New Orleans -3
I really don't know which side to like here. I was planning on picking against both these sides this week before I realized they were playing each other. The Eagles have been pretty dissapointing the last few weeks. Meanwhile, the Saints seem to finally coming out of their funk. I don't really like either side, 0 units on New Orleans. I'll put a unit on the under, as neither of these teams have spectacular offenses.
New Orleans -3 (0 units) +$0
Under 51.5 (1 unit) +$100
Prop/Teaser/Pleasers:
Moneyline: Kansas City +290 (1 unit) -$110
Moneyline: Carolina +152 (1 unit) +$152
Teaser: Chicago +2.5, Baltimore +2.5 (2.5 units) +$250
I'm dropping the 'Skins from my teaser, as I'm more skeptical about them after more research.
Teaser: Seattle +2, Atlanta +2 (2 units) +$200
I don't see either of these teams losing at home to unstable squads.
NFL Picks Week 9: +$1162
Total NFL 2012: +$1117
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