NFL Picks Week 7

Last update: Saturday 11:40 PM (lines updated, unit changes, added O/U picks to all games)

OK, to start off, I'd like to say that I've been doing NFL picks all year. As I mentioned in my previous post, I was doing very well before the last few weeks (especially week 6). Week 2 was really my miracle week, as I went 13-3. Before I get into my picks, I'd like to discuss a few things:
1) I never actually make picks with real money. Because a) it's illegal in Michigan and b) I don't want to risk my money. I'm fine to make picks all day with fake money, but I don't want to risk actual cash.
2) I have a strange unit system compared to what most people use. I do all my games on a unit scale of 4 to 20 units, with all my picks for a week averaging out to 11 units. I've placed approximately 850 units this year and I'm +1.94 units on the year (with the vig) which means I'm pretty much dead even. I'm still going to make picks with my buddies like that, but that's not how I'm going to do it on here. Here, I'm going to go with a more traditional unit system, with 1 unit = $100. I'm going to start myself off as even, as that's pretty much what I am under my old system.
3) I'll post the over/under at the beginning of the week, but not update it over the course of the week unless I plan on betting it (which is rare).
4) The line my pick goes by is the final line. I.e., if the line moves in between the time I make my pick and the game starts, I go with the latest line.
I'm not going to do all my picks at once. I'm going to do them, bit by bit, over the week so they'll all be done by Thursday afternoon. I'll put up any teasers/pleasers/parlays by Sunday morning. Away we go!

Game 1: Seattle @ San Francisco -8
This is quite an intriguing matchup, much more so than most people would've thought before the season started. You've got Russell Wilson, the scrappy youngster, against the strange up-and-down San Francisco 9'ers led by unpredictable quarterback Alex Smith. Seattle looks to be the right side, as they're definitely within 4 points of San Fran (which is what the line suggests). However, Thursday night games have been one of my arch-nemeses all year. A common rule is that if you've got a divisional matchup where both teams are on short rest, take the home team as they don't have to travel. I'll go with that for now, but both these teams have been hot and cold all year.
San Francisco -8 (0 units) +$0
Over 37.5 (0 units) -$0

Game 2: Tennessee @ Buffalo -4.5
One of the games I tend to like, 2 relatively unknown, weak teams battling each other. Despite the fact the Bills are 3-3, they're pretty awful. 2 of their wins are over Kansas City and Cleveland, easily among the worst 5 teams in the league. Their other win was a very strange one this past week over a reeling Arizona team with quite possibly the strangest late field goal kicking you'll see for a while. Meanwhile, Tennessee is coming off a strong win over Pittsburgh, so you'd think that they'd be getting most of the action. That's not the case, as about 65% of the action is on the Bills. However, there's one main reason I like the Titans: they've played only strong teams, and they've played them tough. The 3 weakest teams Tennessee has played, San Diego, Detroit and Minnesota are about at the midway point of the league. Tennessee beat 2 of those.
Unit Change: I'm bumping this up to 4 units. Not only has this spread moved a pivotal half point in my favor, I'm just feeling more confident about the Titans.
Tennessee +4.5 (4 units) +$400
Over 46.5 (0 units) +$0

Game 3: Arizona @ Minnesota -7
Both these teams are surprise teams, and have overachieved a lot in my opinion. John Skelton is under center for the Cards instead of Kevin Kolb. I'm not sure this is too much of a downgrade, as they looked pretty interchangeable in the preseason. The thing that has saved the Vikings' bacon this year is the health of Adrian Peterson. He healed quicker than expected from his ACL injury, and the improvement of Christian Ponder decreases his workload. I like Arizona in this matchup because Minnesota could be looking forward to their Thursday nighter next week. I'm sticking to 1 unit because they've got a backup QB on the road against a solid team.
Arizona +7 (1 unit) +$0
Under 40.5 (0 units) +$0

Game 4: Cleveland @ Indianapolis -1
Yet another game between 2 pretty bad teams. I'll start off with Cleveland. So Cleveland gets their first win last week over an overrated Bengals squad, right? So they get a new owner. Another good sign, right? And then they fire one of their main front office guys. Look, I get it if the new owner wants Holmgren out. However, why can't he wait to fire him until after the season, or at least a long losing streak? Whatever. Trent Richardson should be back from his "flank injury" at the very least. The Colts meanwhile, have an 8-8 or so offense if they could only discover a running game. I like the Browns for a small play, mainly because the public is all over the Colts. I expect the spread to move to -5 or so in the wake of the Holmgren firing, and I might raise this to 2 units if it happens.
Unit Change: And the spread moves the opposite way I expected. I don't think Cleveland is really solidly better than the Colts, so I'm bumping this to 0 units. However, I'm putting a half unit on the under, as I think both of these offenses could come out flat.
Cleveland +1 (0 units) -$0
Under 46 (0.5 units) +$50

Game 5: Baltimore @ Houston -6.5
The storyline everyone is talking about in this one is the Ray Lewis injury. However, in my mind, people should be talking about how the Texans will respond after being dealt their first loss of the year. The Texans just came out completely flat last week on their first nationally televised game of the season. Meanwhile, the Ravens were less than impress themselves. They likely would've lost last week if the Cowboys had any sense of clock management. If this spread was given to me last week, I would've been all over the Ravens. However, they looked like a fringe playoff team last week. I've swung back around to the Ravens again, as the 3.5 point line movement for Ray Lewis is ridiculous.
Baltimore +6.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 47.5 (0 units) -$0

Game 6: Green Bay @ St. Louis +5
This is quite an intriguing game in my opinion. The Rams are one of the leagues' more underrated teams, and they're 3-3, which is surprisingly also the Packers' record. One of the reasons the Rams are such an unknown is that they have no high level fantasy guys (except for maybe Stephen Jackson). The Packers, meanwhile, are under an extremely intense spotlight, and the public is all over them. In fact, some sources are saying that over 90% of the action is coming in on Green Bay. That's reason #1 I like St Louis for a large play, as the books have been slaughtering the public all year (example A: Raiders Falcons last week). The other main reason I like the Rams is that the Packers have been one-dimensional all year, and the Rams have done solid against the pass.
St Louis +5 (3 units) -$330
Over 45.5 (0 units) +$0

Game 7: Dallas @ Carolina +2.5
I mentioned in the write-up for the Titans Bills game that I like games between 2 teams that are relative unknowns. What I dislike are games like these: games between teams talked about ad nauseam. I want to fade Dallas, after their complete lack of leadership and clock management shown last week. On the other hand, the Panthers and the Bucs are neck-and-neck for the title of worst team in the NFC in my mind. I'm going to go with Dallas here, as I'm not sure the public realizes how atrocious Carolina is.
Unit Change: I convinced myself into putting 2 units on Dallas with my whole "terrible triangle" idea in the Tampa/New Orleans write-up.
Dallas -2.5 (2 units) +$200
Under 45 (0 units) +$0

Game 8: Washington @ New York Giants -6
I'll start with the visitor here in my analysis. The Skins may be 3-3, but they've suffered major in-game injuries in all 3 of their losses. RG3 has certainly exceeded my expectations so far, but he could fall into a sophomore slump like Scam Newton (still hate him from Auburn) this year. The mess that is the Redskins backfield is actually producing, with Torain, Helu and Hightower all providing valuable contributions. On the Giants' side, it's amazing they're 2 games behind Atlanta considering the way both teams are playing right now. Everybody thinks the Giants are back, and it shows in that the action is on them. I'm going with the Skins mainly because everybody is all aboard the Giants bandwagon, and the Giants aren't very consistent.
Washington +6 (2 units) +$200
Over 51.5 (0 units) -$0

Game 9: New Orleans @ Tampa Bay +1.5
The Saints are taking on an absolutely awful Buccaneers squad in this one. I'm not sure the public realizes just how bad the NFC South teams not named the Falcons are. The only win any of the Bucs, Saints or Panthers have outside of their little triangle is a strange New Orleans win over San Diego on Sunday Night a few weeks back. That's 1 win. For 3 teams. In 15 or so tries. However, I can't overly exploit this, as 2 of the 3 "terrible triangle" are playing in this matchup. However, I am picking the Buccaneers for a unit because I don't think any of the triangle teams are a touchdown better than any of their counterparts.
Tampa Bay +1.5 (1 unit) -$110
Under 49.5 (0 units) -$0

Game 10: New York Jets @ New England -11
In this matchup, we have our biggest spread of the week, always an interesting play (Packers-Rams would have a higher spread if they were playing at Lambeau. Surprisingly, the Jets and Patriots do have the same record. It'll be interesting to see how the Pats fare after their emotional loss last week in Seattle. If I was the Pats, I wouldn't get too down. Winning in Seattle is not an easy task, and it's near impossible when the replacement officials are on Seattle's side. On the other side, the Jets shocked me last week with their competitive performance against the Colts. I like the Jets here for a unit, as I'm not sure the Pats will be able to blow out a streaky Jets team.
New York Jets +11 (1 unit) +$100
Over 47.5 (0 unit) +$0

*** OK, so I've been really busy this week and I didn't realize how much work this was. I'm going to write a little less for the rest of the games, and likely in future weeks as well***

Game 11: Jacksonville @ Oakland -6
As mentioned earlier, this is a matchup between 2 lesser-followed teams that isn't getting a lot of action on either side. I like these matchups because I feel that the average public is especially un-educated about these types of tilts. Oakland put all their weight into their tilt with the Falcons last week, and are going to be emotionally spent. On the other hand, the Jaguars are not even with Oakland in my mind, by any stretch of the imagination. Line value hasn't been doing too well for me over the past few weeks, so I'm going to stick with the Jags for a unit.
Unit Change: I got some favorable line movement, and I'm feeling more confident about this one. I'm making this 2 units on the Jags.
Jacksonville +6 (2 units) +$200
Under 44.5 (0 units) -$0

Game 12: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati +1.5
Ooh, do I have something to say about this one. The Steelers have had a rash of injuries on defense, like the Redskins, but they may finally be coming out of that funk. The Bengals on the other hand are extraordinarily overrated. Their 3 wins are over Cleveland, Jacksonville and Washington. Besides a strange victory over the 'Skins where just about every Redskins defender went out with an injury, they have 2 wins over Jacksonville and Cleveland. Not exactly lighting the world on fire with those. On the other hand, the Steelers are still a very solid team, as they lost a close one to the underrated Titans last week. I like the Steelers for a big play here, I'd make it 4 units if they didn't have to start Dwyer at RB.
Pittsburgh -1.5 (3 units) +$300
Under 47 (0 units) +$0

Game 13: Detroit @ Chicago -6
On Monday Night Football this week, we've got my favorite team (the Lions) taking on one of my favorite plays all season, the Bears. The Lions have not played well on a national stage the past few years, as evidenced on Monday Night Football last year and multiple Thanksgiving Day massacres I've suffered through. The Bears have a methodical Jay Cutler at the helm, who despite his prima donna ways at times, is helped by the outstanding tandem backfield of Bush and Forte. In my opinion, that backfield is possibly the best tandem in football. I like the Bears for a few units, but I'm keeping it at 2 because I feel I'm underrating the Lions in my head because I'm just being pessimistic. Also, the line value of Chicago being 3 points better than Detroit just seems a little fishy.
Chicago -6.5 (2 units) -$220
Over 47.5 (0 units)

Pleaser/Teaser/Parlay etc. picks:
Moneyline: Tennessee +165 (1 unit) +$165
Moneyline: St Louis +190 (.5 units) -$50
Teaser: Tennessee +8.5, Jacksonville +12 (2 units) +$200
Total NFL Week 7: +$1105

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