NFL Picks Week 8
Updated Sunday 11 AM Eastern (O/U picks, unit changes, teaser/ ML underdog)
Wow! That was most definitely a good week. I'll take +$1105 any time. The call that lost me Tampa/New Orleans was a little shady, but I'm not exactly in a mood to complain right now. My gut was telling me to lower the Rams pick to 2 units, but whatever. Before we begin, I'd like to make a brief note about my teaser last week. After games started I did some research and discovered that teasing a team from +6 to +12 is actually a very bad idea. It worked out last week, but I likely won't be doing it again.
Game 1: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota -5.5
We start off, of course, with Thursday Night Football. These Thursday nighters have been my arch nemesis all year, I think I'm like 2-5 picking them. However, I can take advantage of my "terrible triangle" theory here. Not only does the public not understand how absolutely awful Tampa Bay is, they're coming off an emotional loss where the game was "stolen" from them. Additionally, the Bucs will have to rely on Josh Freeman more against a stout Vikings rush D. This feels like the Cards/Vikings game last week. I really like one team (last week Arizona, this week Minnesota) but there's a factor holding me back (last week backup QB on the road, this week it's Thursday Night). I'll go 2 units here.
Minnesota -5.5 (2 units) -$220
Under 45.5 (0 units)
Game 2: New England @ St Louis +7
Oh joy, our annual game in London. You know, I've never understood the annual game in London. If you want to expand the NFL's fanbase in Europe, this is not the way to do it. I consider myself a big NFL fan, but I've never been to a game. The real way to build a fanbase in Europe is to show games on TV during off times. I remember being able to watch a Vikings/Steelers game in New Zealand on TV when I couldn't sleep in the middle of the night. (On an unrelated New Zealand note, rugby is actually awesome). OK, as for the game, the media is absolutely trashing New England right now after the Jets game. They're saying that the Patriots are a middle of the road team that won't make the playoffs. Breaking news, guys. They're on top of the division with Brady at the helm. Excuse me, but didn't they pound Denver, the media's favorite team? On the other hand, St Louis has been very inconsistent, beating Washington, Seattle and Arizona but not Miami. I'm going small on New England.
New England -7 (1 unit) +$100
Over 47 (0 units) +$0
Game 3: Indianapolis @ Tennessee -3.5
The Colts are coming off a solid win on the road against the Browns. Thankfully for the Colts, Trent Richardson neglected to show up last week. The Colts are still 2-1 since Chuck Pagano was hospitalized, however. Andrew Luck is doing a remarkable job considering the lack of talent surrounding him. On the other hand, I won 6 units last week thanks to the Titans (2 on the teaser). Because they were relatively unimpressive, I don't think the public has caught on to just how good this team is. I like the Colts a little bit thanks to the Pagano psychology factor, so I'm limiting this to 3 units on the Titans.
Tennessee -3.5 (3 units) -$330
Under 47 (0 units) +$0
Game 4: Jacksonville @ Green Bay -14.5
So last week as I was looking through this week's games, I notice this one. So I think "OK. That spread will probably be 11 or 12 ish and I might put a unit on the Packers". But no. This spread opened at 16. 16 points!!! I'm really not sure I want to touch this game. Jacksonville was not as good as the score indicated last week. The Packers, however, should be sitting at 5-2 if it weren't for the infamous touchdowngate incident. I'm going Jaguars 0 units, but might put a unit on them if this spread gets crazier.
Unit Change: I'm putting half a unit on the under. Jacksonville won't score 20 or so.
Jacksonville +14.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 45.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 5: San Diego @ Cleveland +3
The most interesting thing to me in this matchup is the psychology on both sides. The Chargers are feeling ready to rebound after having 2 weeks to shake off their tough loss to the Broncos. The Browns, meanwhile, are coming off a loss in which they were favored, which isn't gonna happen much this year. The Browns would appreciate it if Trent Richardson could actually contribute. I don't have a feel for this one. If forced, I'd go with the Chargers.
San Diego -3 (0 units) -$0
Over 41 (0 units) +$0
Game 6: Atlanta @ Philadelphia -2.5
This is the game with the most interesting spread this week in my opinion. Looking at this game last week, I was thinking I was going to go big on the Eagles thinking I'd see the Falcons as a 1-2 point favorite. And then I see the Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite! I have strong arguments for both sides. For the Eagles, all the action is on an undefeated Atlanta team . Atlanta almost lost to Oakland last time out. For the Falcons, Vegas is saying they're even with an Eagles team that has 3 wins by a total of 4 points. For now, I'm penciling in a medium sized wager on the host.
Unit Change: I don't understand why the over/under is so low as both teams have capable offenses. I'm laying half a unit on the over.
Philadelphia -3 (2 units) -$220
Over 41.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 7: Seattle @ Detroit -2.5
Both of these teams are coming off tough road losses against the NFC's elite on a national stage. The Seahawks are 0-3 in divisional games (1 loss against each NFC West team), and 4-0 in non-divisional games. However, they're a completely different team at home than on the road. The Lions, meanwhile, shot themselves in the foot last week and sneaked away with a backdoor cover against Chicago. The amount of drops and stupid penalties on their part was absolutely astounding. I'm going small on Seattle here, I really like the line value as I feel Seattle is more than a point better than Detroit, but line value hasn't exactly won me a lot of money this year.
Unit Change: This spread has moved in my favor, I'm bumping it up.
Seattle +2.5 (2 units) -$220
Over 42.5 (0 units) +$0
*** OK, I had analysis typed up for the following games on my phone but it disappeared. I'm going to be very abridged in my analysis***
Game 8: Miami @ New York Jets -1
Miami is better than people think, Jets are coming off of a tough loss. Jets are generally overrated, 1 unit on Miami.
Unit Change: I'm dropping the unit on this game as the spread has moved 1.5 points in the Jets' favor.
Miami +1 (0 units) +$0
Under 38 (0 units) -$0
Game 9: Carolina @ Chicago -7.5
Terrible triangle in effect here, Chicago is quite good. Up there with the Giants and Texas for best team in the league in my mind. A little tenative about high spread, 2 on Chicago.
Chicago -7.5 (2 units) -$220
Over 42 (0 units)
Game 10: Washington @ Pittsburgh -4
Washington is very good, as proven against the Giants last week. Steelers have a thousand and a half players injured. RG3 might lead the 'Skins to victory straight up. 4 units.
Unit Change: I'm just not feeling as confident on this one. Dropping to 3 units.
Washington +4 (3 units) -$330
Over 44 (0 units)
Game 11: Oakland @ Kansas City -1
Kansas City might be worse than Cleveland. Oakland has hung with some good teams (Pittsburgh, Atlanta). Not sure I like Oakland's ability to finish games, 3 units on the Raiders.
Oakland +1 (3 units) +$300
Under 42 (0 units) Push +-$0
Game 12: New York Giants @ Dallas +2.5
Normally I'd like the Giants here, reeks of a trap game. Dallas looking for a season sweep, needs a win while the Giants really don't. Giants for 0.
New York Giants -2.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 48 (0 units) -$0
Game 13: New Orleans @ Denver -6.5
Terrible triangle, but Denver is overrated. I think New Orleans might be separating themselves from Tampa/Carolina. 0 on Denver.
Denver -6.5 (0 units)
Under 55 (0 units)
Game 14: San Francisco @ Arizona +7
Going small on 'Zona here. They're closer to SF than 9.5, but I see no reason to pick them other than line value.
Arizona +7 (1 unit)
Over 38 (0 units)
Pleasers/Teasers/Parlays/Other:
Moneyline: Washington +180 (1 unit) -$110
Moneyline: Seattle +127 (1 unit) -$110
Teaser: Tennessee +2.5, New York Giants +3.5 (1.5 units) -$165
Total NFL Week 8: -$1150
Total NFL 2012: -$45
Wow! That was most definitely a good week. I'll take +$1105 any time. The call that lost me Tampa/New Orleans was a little shady, but I'm not exactly in a mood to complain right now. My gut was telling me to lower the Rams pick to 2 units, but whatever. Before we begin, I'd like to make a brief note about my teaser last week. After games started I did some research and discovered that teasing a team from +6 to +12 is actually a very bad idea. It worked out last week, but I likely won't be doing it again.
Game 1: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota -5.5
We start off, of course, with Thursday Night Football. These Thursday nighters have been my arch nemesis all year, I think I'm like 2-5 picking them. However, I can take advantage of my "terrible triangle" theory here. Not only does the public not understand how absolutely awful Tampa Bay is, they're coming off an emotional loss where the game was "stolen" from them. Additionally, the Bucs will have to rely on Josh Freeman more against a stout Vikings rush D. This feels like the Cards/Vikings game last week. I really like one team (last week Arizona, this week Minnesota) but there's a factor holding me back (last week backup QB on the road, this week it's Thursday Night). I'll go 2 units here.
Minnesota -5.5 (2 units) -$220
Under 45.5 (0 units)
Game 2: New England @ St Louis +7
Oh joy, our annual game in London. You know, I've never understood the annual game in London. If you want to expand the NFL's fanbase in Europe, this is not the way to do it. I consider myself a big NFL fan, but I've never been to a game. The real way to build a fanbase in Europe is to show games on TV during off times. I remember being able to watch a Vikings/Steelers game in New Zealand on TV when I couldn't sleep in the middle of the night. (On an unrelated New Zealand note, rugby is actually awesome). OK, as for the game, the media is absolutely trashing New England right now after the Jets game. They're saying that the Patriots are a middle of the road team that won't make the playoffs. Breaking news, guys. They're on top of the division with Brady at the helm. Excuse me, but didn't they pound Denver, the media's favorite team? On the other hand, St Louis has been very inconsistent, beating Washington, Seattle and Arizona but not Miami. I'm going small on New England.
New England -7 (1 unit) +$100
Over 47 (0 units) +$0
Game 3: Indianapolis @ Tennessee -3.5
The Colts are coming off a solid win on the road against the Browns. Thankfully for the Colts, Trent Richardson neglected to show up last week. The Colts are still 2-1 since Chuck Pagano was hospitalized, however. Andrew Luck is doing a remarkable job considering the lack of talent surrounding him. On the other hand, I won 6 units last week thanks to the Titans (2 on the teaser). Because they were relatively unimpressive, I don't think the public has caught on to just how good this team is. I like the Colts a little bit thanks to the Pagano psychology factor, so I'm limiting this to 3 units on the Titans.
Tennessee -3.5 (3 units) -$330
Under 47 (0 units) +$0
Game 4: Jacksonville @ Green Bay -14.5
So last week as I was looking through this week's games, I notice this one. So I think "OK. That spread will probably be 11 or 12 ish and I might put a unit on the Packers". But no. This spread opened at 16. 16 points!!! I'm really not sure I want to touch this game. Jacksonville was not as good as the score indicated last week. The Packers, however, should be sitting at 5-2 if it weren't for the infamous touchdowngate incident. I'm going Jaguars 0 units, but might put a unit on them if this spread gets crazier.
Unit Change: I'm putting half a unit on the under. Jacksonville won't score 20 or so.
Jacksonville +14.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 45.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 5: San Diego @ Cleveland +3
The most interesting thing to me in this matchup is the psychology on both sides. The Chargers are feeling ready to rebound after having 2 weeks to shake off their tough loss to the Broncos. The Browns, meanwhile, are coming off a loss in which they were favored, which isn't gonna happen much this year. The Browns would appreciate it if Trent Richardson could actually contribute. I don't have a feel for this one. If forced, I'd go with the Chargers.
San Diego -3 (0 units) -$0
Over 41 (0 units) +$0
Game 6: Atlanta @ Philadelphia -2.5
This is the game with the most interesting spread this week in my opinion. Looking at this game last week, I was thinking I was going to go big on the Eagles thinking I'd see the Falcons as a 1-2 point favorite. And then I see the Eagles are a 2.5 point favorite! I have strong arguments for both sides. For the Eagles, all the action is on an undefeated Atlanta team . Atlanta almost lost to Oakland last time out. For the Falcons, Vegas is saying they're even with an Eagles team that has 3 wins by a total of 4 points. For now, I'm penciling in a medium sized wager on the host.
Unit Change: I don't understand why the over/under is so low as both teams have capable offenses. I'm laying half a unit on the over.
Philadelphia -3 (2 units) -$220
Over 41.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 7: Seattle @ Detroit -2.5
Both of these teams are coming off tough road losses against the NFC's elite on a national stage. The Seahawks are 0-3 in divisional games (1 loss against each NFC West team), and 4-0 in non-divisional games. However, they're a completely different team at home than on the road. The Lions, meanwhile, shot themselves in the foot last week and sneaked away with a backdoor cover against Chicago. The amount of drops and stupid penalties on their part was absolutely astounding. I'm going small on Seattle here, I really like the line value as I feel Seattle is more than a point better than Detroit, but line value hasn't exactly won me a lot of money this year.
Unit Change: This spread has moved in my favor, I'm bumping it up.
Seattle +2.5 (2 units) -$220
Over 42.5 (0 units) +$0
*** OK, I had analysis typed up for the following games on my phone but it disappeared. I'm going to be very abridged in my analysis***
Game 8: Miami @ New York Jets -1
Miami is better than people think, Jets are coming off of a tough loss. Jets are generally overrated, 1 unit on Miami.
Unit Change: I'm dropping the unit on this game as the spread has moved 1.5 points in the Jets' favor.
Miami +1 (0 units) +$0
Under 38 (0 units) -$0
Game 9: Carolina @ Chicago -7.5
Terrible triangle in effect here, Chicago is quite good. Up there with the Giants and Texas for best team in the league in my mind. A little tenative about high spread, 2 on Chicago.
Chicago -7.5 (2 units) -$220
Over 42 (0 units)
Game 10: Washington @ Pittsburgh -4
Washington is very good, as proven against the Giants last week. Steelers have a thousand and a half players injured. RG3 might lead the 'Skins to victory straight up. 4 units.
Unit Change: I'm just not feeling as confident on this one. Dropping to 3 units.
Washington +4 (3 units) -$330
Over 44 (0 units)
Game 11: Oakland @ Kansas City -1
Kansas City might be worse than Cleveland. Oakland has hung with some good teams (Pittsburgh, Atlanta). Not sure I like Oakland's ability to finish games, 3 units on the Raiders.
Oakland +1 (3 units) +$300
Under 42 (0 units) Push +-$0
Game 12: New York Giants @ Dallas +2.5
Normally I'd like the Giants here, reeks of a trap game. Dallas looking for a season sweep, needs a win while the Giants really don't. Giants for 0.
New York Giants -2.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 48 (0 units) -$0
Game 13: New Orleans @ Denver -6.5
Terrible triangle, but Denver is overrated. I think New Orleans might be separating themselves from Tampa/Carolina. 0 on Denver.
Denver -6.5 (0 units)
Under 55 (0 units)
Game 14: San Francisco @ Arizona +7
Going small on 'Zona here. They're closer to SF than 9.5, but I see no reason to pick them other than line value.
Arizona +7 (1 unit)
Over 38 (0 units)
Pleasers/Teasers/Parlays/Other:
Moneyline: Washington +180 (1 unit) -$110
Moneyline: Seattle +127 (1 unit) -$110
Teaser: Tennessee +2.5, New York Giants +3.5 (1.5 units) -$165
Total NFL Week 8: -$1150
Total NFL 2012: -$45
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