Monday, July 9, 2012

2012 College Football Preview: BCS Bowl and Hypothetical Playoff Predictions

Hi guys! This is going to be one of my final 2012 College Football Preview posts. In this post I'll talk about how my projected records for the college football season (which you can find here) would fit with the current BCS bowl system, and the 4-team playoff system I outlined here. Before I start, I'd like to mention that these are not the records I'm predicting with my own opinion, but rather they're the records my power ratings are predicting.

My projected 2012 BCS bowls 

With my projected records, there's a bit of controversy surrounding who plays in the National Championship. Utah, Georgia and Oklahoma are all undefeated major conference champions. Oklahoma did not play in a conference championship game, and they didn't beat a ranked team in a true road game. Georgia played the #72 schedule, easier than many mid-majors, and played only 3 teams with a winning conference record. Utah started off the season unranked, however they have 2 wins over top 10 teams. Ultimately, I believe Utah would be the odd team out due to their low position to start the season and their lower presitge.
National Championship: 1 Oklahoma vs. 2 Georgia
Rose: 3 Utah vs. 4 Nebraska
Sugar: 9 Tennessee vs. 7 Ohio
Fiesta: 6 Texas vs. 5 USC
Orange: 10 Clemson vs. 18 South Florida

My projected 2012 Playoff

Instead of the controversy being for 2nd place, in the playoff it's for fourth place. Nebraska has 1 loss, to Ohio State on the road, and USC has one loss, to Utah on the road. Also throwing a monkey wrench into the equation is undefeated Ohio, MAC champions. Ultimately, Ohio will not be chosen for the playoff due to their low strength of schedule, and Nebraska gets the nod over USC due to their status as conference champions.
Rose (semi): 2 Georgia vs. 3 Utah
Sugar (champions): 6 Texas vs. 9 Tennessee
Fiesta: 5 USC vs. 12 LSU
Orange: 11 Notre Dame vs. 10 Clemson
Cotton (semi): 1 Oklahoma vs. 4 Nebraska
Peach: 8 Oregon vs. 7 Ohio
Final at Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Florida

That's all for now! I hope to have some fantasy football articles up over the next few weeks.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

2012 College Football Preview: 4-team playoff

Unless you've been living under a rock for the last 2 weeks, you know that a 4-team college football playoff has been approved for the 2014 season. There's been a lot of speculation about how this playoff is going to work, but let's go over the concrete facts first.
1) 6 bowls (yet to be named) will rotate hosting the semi-finals
2) The championship game will be played in the highest bidding city
3) A selection committee will choose the 4 teams to participate in the playoffs
4) The 6 "major" bowls are free to make tie-in contracts with conferences/independent teams
5) Any non-semi major-bowl will have it's remaining spots chosen by the committee
6) All 6 "major" bowl games will be played on either December 31st or January 1st
And now, let's go over the selection procedures I am assuming for the purpose of this article:
1) The 6 "major" bowls will be the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, Cotton and Chik-Fil-A (which I'll refer to by its former name, the Peach Bowl)
2) The semifinals will consist of one "tie-in" bowl (Sugar/Cotton, Rose, Orange) and one "access" bowl (Sugar/Cotton, Fiesta, Peach)
3) The January 1st bowls will be the Orange at 1 PM, the Rose at 5 PM and the Champions at 8 PM, and the December 31st bowls will be the Fiesta, Peach and Sugar/Cotton
4) Conference champions will be given preference in selection for playoff teams
5) The highest ranked team from the SEC not in the playoff, as well as the highest ranked team from the Big 12 not in the playoff, will play each other in the "Champions Bowl" every year.
6) The "Champions Bowl" will exist inside the current Sugar and Cotton Bowls. When the Sugar Bowl is a semi-final, the "Champions Bowl" will be the Cotton Bowl, and vice-versa. When neither the Sugar or Cotton Bowl are semi-finals, the "Champions Bowl" will switch between the two sites.
7) The highest-ranked Big 10 team not in the playoff will play the highest-ranked Pac-12 team not in the playoff in the Rose Bowl, except for when the Rose Bowl is a semi-final. When the Rose Bowl is a semi-final, the 2 teams in question are still guaranteed a "major bowl" slot.
8) The ACC champion will play in the Orange Bowl, unless the ACC champion makes the playoff or the Orange Bowl is a semi-final. If the ACC champion makes the playoff, the ACC is guaranteed a second major-bowl team (that team would play in the Orange Bowl if it is not a semi, otherwise they would play in an access bowl). If the Orange Bowl is a semi and the ACC champion does not qualify for the playoff, the ACC champion will play in an "access bowl"
9) If Notre Dame is in the top 16 of the rankings, they are guaranteed a spot in the Orange Bowl, unless they qualify for the playoff. If the Orange Bowl is a semi-final and Notre Dame is in the top-16, they will play in an access bowl.
10) If the highest-ranked team not in the Big 10, Pac-12, SEC, Big 12, ACC (or Notre Dame) is in the top 14, that team will be guaranteed a "major bowl" spot.
11) "Tie-in preference" will be given to the #1 seed in the playoff. That is, if a Big 10 member is the #1 seed and the Rose Bowl is a semi-final, the #1 seed will play the #4 seed in the Rose Bowl.
12) Any remaining bowl spots will be filled how the committee sees fit, with an emphasis on merit.

I'm pretty sure I covered all the bases there, so let's analyze how this system would've worked the past few years.

Rose (semi): 1 Ohio State vs. 4 USC
Sugar (champions): 5 LSU vs. 10 Oklahoma
Fiesta: 8 Boise State vs. 9 Auburn
Orange: 11 Notre Dame vs. 14 Wake Forest
Cotton (semi): 2 Florida vs. 3 Michigan
Peach: 6 Louisville vs. 7 Wisconsin
USC was given the #4 seed over LSU because they were a conference champion (which gave USC the slight bump needed). Louisville was guaranteed a major-bowl spot based on rule 10.

Rose: 7 USC vs. 13 Illinois
Sugar (semi): 1 Ohio State vs. 4 Oklahoma
Fiesta: 8 Kansas vs. 10 Hawaii
Orange: 14 Boston College vs. 9 West Virginia
Cotton (champions): 5 Georgia vs. 6 Missouri
Peach (semi): 2 LSU vs. 3 Virginia Tech

Rose: 8 Penn State vs. 17 Oregon
Sugar (champions): 5 Alabama vs. 7 Texas Tech
Fiesta (semi): 1 Oklahoma vs. 4 USC
Orange (semi):  2 Florida vs. 3 Texas
Cotton: 6 Utah vs. 10 Ohio State
Peach: 9 Boise State vs. 15 Georgia Tech
Notes: USC was given the #4 seed over Alabama because they were a conference champion (which gave USC the slight bump needed). Georgia Tech was guaranteed a major-bowl spot as ACC champs, even though the Orange was a semi.
Rose (semi): 2 Texas vs. 3 Cincinnati
Sugar (champions): 5 Florida vs. 19 Oklahoma State
Fiesta: 6 Boise State vs. 12 Virginia Tech
Orange: 9 Georgia Tech vs. 10 Iowa
Cotton (semi): 1 Alabama vs. 4 TCU
Peach: 7 Oregon vs. 8 Ohio State
Rose: 5 Stanford vs. 6 Ohio State
Sugar (semi): 1 Auburn vs. 4 Wisconsin
Fiesta: 9 Michigan State vs. 10 Boise State
Orange: 13 Virginia Tech vs. 11 LSU
Cotton (champions): 7 Oklahoma vs. 8 Arkansas
Peach (semi): 2 Oregon vs. 3 TCU
Notes: Wisconsin gets the #4 seed over Stanford because they're a conference champ (slight bonus).
Rose: 5 Stanford vs. 10 Wisconsin
Sugar: 7 Boise State vs. 15 Clemson
Fiesta (semi): 1 LSU vs. 4 Oregon
Orange (semi): 2 Oklahoma State vs. 3 Alabama
Cotton (champions): 6 Arkansas vs. 8 Kansas State
Peach: 9 South Carolina vs. 11 Virginia Tech
Notes: Oregon gets the #4 seed over Stanford because they're a conference champ, and head-to-head is in Oregon's favor, and Oklahaoma State gets the #2 seed over Alabama due to being a conference champ.

I almost ran into a very interesting situation doing the bowls for 2010. If Stanford wasn't bumped out of the playoff, the Rose Bowl would be in a very interesting situation. The Pac-12 would've had 2 teams in the playoff (Stanford and Oregon). The Rose Bowl would be contractually obligated to pick the highest remaining Pac-12 team, and that team was Arizona (BCS #35). I'm sure that would've caused an uproar. Anyways, my next post will be about who my power rankings for 2012 project in the BCS bowls, as well as who they project into the system outlined in this post. That's all for now!

Monday, July 2, 2012

2012 College Football Preview: Records

A few days ago, I gave you guys my 2012 power ratings. Today, I'm going to present my projected win-loss record for each team. I'd have to say that the team that surprised me the most in simulating the season was Utah. The Utes are projected as undefeated Pac-12 champions in my power ratings. I don't necessarily agree with that, but they do have a lot of signs pointing upwards. They also have a number of close games (vs. USC and vs. Oregon). Without further ado, here are my 2012 projected records.

Georgia 12-0 (8-0) (SEC champion)
Tennessee 10-2 (6-2)
South Carolina 8-4 (5-3)
Missouri 8-4 (4-4)
Florida 7-5 (4-4)
Vanderbilt 8-4 (4-4)
Kentucky 2-10 (0-8)
Arkansas 10-2 (6-2) (SEC West champion)
LSU 10-2 (6-2)
Texas A&M 9-3 (5-3)
Alabama 8-4 (4-4)
Mississippi State 7-5 (3-5)
Auburn 4-8 (1-7)
Mississippi 3-9 (0-8)

Big 10
Ohio State 10-2 (6-2)
Purdue 8-4 (5-3) (B10 Leaders champion, as OSU is ineligible)
Wisconsin 8-4 (5-3)
Illinois 6-6 (4-4)
Penn State 5-7 (3-5)
Indiana 3-9 (0-8)
Nebraska 11-1 (7-1) (Big 10 champion)
Michigan 8-4 (6-2)
Michigan State 8-4 (5-3)
Iowa 9-3 (5-3)
Northwestern 2-10 (1-7)
Minnesota 1-11 (0-8)

Big 12
Oklahoma 12-0 (9-0) (Big 12 champion)
Texas 10-2 (7-2)
Oklahoma State 10-2 (7-2)
West Virginia 8-4 (5-4)
Texas Tech 8-4 (5-4)
Kansas State 7-5 (4-5)
Baylor 7-5 (4-5)
TCU 6-6 (3-6)
Iowa State 2-10 (1-8)
Kansas 2-10 (0-9)

Clemson 11-1 (7-1) (ACC champion)
Florida State 10-2 (6-2)
North Carolina State 9-3 (6-2)
Wake Forest 5-7 (3-5)
Boston College 5-7 (2-6)
Maryland 2-10 (0-8)
North Carolina 11-1 (8-0)
Virginia Tech 10-2 (6-2) (ACC Coastal champion, as North Carolina is ineligible)
Georgia Tech 8-4 (5-3)
Virginia 5-7 (3-5)
Duke 3-9 (1-7)
Miami FL 1-11 (0-8)

Utah 12-0 (9-0) (Pac-12 champion)
USC 11-1 (8-1)
UCLA 8-4 (6-3)
Arizona 4-8 (2-7)
Arizona State 2-10 (1-8)
Colorado 3-9 (1-8)
Oregon 11-1 (8-1)
California 7-5 (5-4)
Washington 7-5 (5-4)
Stanford 6-6 (4-5)
Oregon State 6-6 (4-5)
Washington State 3-9 (1-8)

Big East
South Florida 10-2 (6-1) (Big East champion)
Rutgers 10-2 (6-1)
Louisville 10-2 (5-2)
Pittsburgh 8-4 (5-2)
Connecticut 5-7 (2-5)
Cincinnati 6-6 (2-5)
Syracuse 4-8 (2-5)
Temple 1-11 (0-7)

Mountain West
Boise State 9-3 (8-0) (Mountain West champion)
Nevada 9-3 (7-1)
Fresno State 8-4 (6-2)
UNLV 7-6 (5-3)
San Diego State 6-6 (4-4)
Wyoming 6-6 (3-5)
New Mexico 6-7 (3-5)
Air Force 4-8 (3-5)
Colorado State 2-10 (1-7)
Hawaii 2-10 (0-8)

Conference USA
UCF 9-3 (7-1) (C-USA East champion)
Southern Mississippi 8-4 (7-1)
East Carolina 8-4 (6-2)
Marshall 4-8 (3-5)
UAB 2-10 (1-7)
Memphis 1-11 (0-8)
Tulsa 11-1 (8-0) (C-USA champion)
Houston 7-5 (5-3)
SMU 6-6 (5-3)
Tulane 3-9 (3-5)
UTEP 3-9 (2-6)
Rice 2-10 (1-7)

Notre Dame 10-2
BYU 9-3
Navy 8-4
Army 8-4

Ohio 12-0 (8-0) (MAC champion)
Bowling Green 9-3 (7-1)
Miami OH 6-6 (5-3)
Kent State 5-7 (4-4)
Akron 2-10 (1-7)
Massachusetts 1-11 (1-7)
Buffalo 1-11 (0-8)
Central Michigan 9-3 (7-1) (MAC West champion)
Western Michigan 10-2 (7-1)
Northern Illinois 9-3 (7-1)
Toledo 4-8 (3-5)
Eastern Michigan 2-10 (1-7)
Ball State 1-11 (0-8)

Louisiana Tech 11-1 (6-0) (WAC champion)
Utah State 8-4 (5-1)
San Jose State 6-6 (4-2)
Texas State 4-8 (3-3)
Idaho 3-9 (2-4)
New Mexico State 2-10 (1-5)
UTSA 4-8 (0-6)

Sun Belt
Florida International 10-2 (8-0) (Sun Belt champion)
Western Kentucky 9-3 (6-2)
Arkansas State 8-4 (6-2)
Troy 7-5 (6-2)
Louisiana-Monroe 6-6 (5-3)
Louisiana-Lafayette 5-7 (3-5)
Middle Tennessee 5-7 (3-5)
Florida Atlantic 3-9 (2-6)
North Texas 2-10 (1-7)
South Alabama 2-10 (0-8)

Over the next few days, I'll put up my thoughts about the new 4-team college football playoff, and how I think the BCS bowls (and a 4-team playoff) would shape up with the records listed above.