NFL Picks Week 10
Last Update: Noon Eastern Sunday (Updated spreads, ATL/NO unit change)
+$1162! That's what I call a nice week. I'm putting .5 units on all my O/U picks after how well they did last week.
Game 1: Indianapolis @ Jacksonville +3
The Colts are surprising everyone, including myself. How on earth are they 5-3 without their coach? Andrew Luck is playing like the clear-cut #1 pick he is. The Jaguars have been certifiably awful, suffering a home blowout to the mediocre Lions last week. I'm treating this as a not quite as awesome version of the Baltimore game last week.
Indianapolis -3 (2 units) +$200
Over 42.5 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 2: Buffalo @ New England -13.5
I guess Ryan Lindell must have had some money on Houston, eh? In case you're confused, the Bills kicker missed a 35 yard field goal way wide late so the Bills lost by 12 (the spread was 10.5). The Pats are coming off a bye and a big win in London. I'll place 2 units on the host.
Unit Change: I'm dropping this to 1 unit as the spread has inflated to 13.
New England -13.5 (1 unit) -$110
Under 54 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 3: New York Giants @ Cincinnati +4
The Giants are coming off a surprising loss to the Steelers that cost me 3 units. I think they're going to wait about 2 weeks to go into Eli Manning-powered overdrive. The Bengals lost by 8 to Denver, much to my dismay last week. I think both sides are overrated here. Cincy didn't deserve to hang with Denver for that long and the Giants are emotionally flat. Going with the home dog for 0.
Cincinnati +4 (0 units) +$0
Under 47.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 4: San Diego @ Tampa Bay -3
And, terrible triangle no more! Tampa Bay, Carolina and New Orleans have learned how to play football. Josh Freeman is showing some of that first round ability he had when drafted out of K-State. The Chargers had a convincing victory over KC. I think the Bucs should be 5-6 point favorites. I'll put 1 on them.
Unit Change: I'm feeling way more confident here. The Chargers are just not that good. Bumping it to 3.
Tampa Bay -3 (3 units) +$300
Over 46.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 5: Denver @ Carolina +3.5
Denver played solid against Cincinnati, but it's a complete joke that they're at 5:1 to win the Super Bowl. The amount of Peyton-driven hype they're getting is ridiculous. Conversely, the Panthers pulled out a nice win over the Redskins. I'm not sure the Broncos will be up for this non-conference matchup.
Carolina +3.5 (1 unit) -$110
Over 46.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 6: Tennessee @ Miami -6.5
I have seen a TON of "experts" who are all over Tennessee. I think I'm going to have to agree. The Dolphins are a solid favorite after a loss, not a familiar situation. I was pretty high on the Titans a few weeks ago, especially against Buffalo. They're not as bad as the public thinks after the Bears game.
Unit Change: I'll bump this one to 3 as well. Why is Miami favored by this much?
Unit Change: Well, the spread has risen to the key number of 7, so I'll bump this to 4 units.
Unit Change: And it dropped below 7 again. Back to 3 units.
Tennessee +6.5 (3 units) +$300
Over 44 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 7: Oakland @ Baltimore -7.5
Uggh, Baltimore is really, really overrated. They beat KC by 7, Cleveland by 10, Cleveland by 7, etc. etc. Joe Flacco is solid, but Ray Rice needs to be seeing more carries. They'll get exposed against Pittsburgh on Sunday Night next week. The Raiders have 3 wins, and may be underrated.
Unit Change: Eh, not feeling this one anymore. Baltimore is still overrated, but the Raiders suck more than I realized.
Oakland +7.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 48 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 8: Atlanta @ New Orleans +2
I told you guys that I learned my lesson on picking against Atlanta last week after the Philly game. Well, they covered against Dallas, even if it wasn't pretty. I'm curbing my wager this week because they're playing in the Superdome, and the Saints are starting to play like a football team.
Unit Change: I'm raising this to 4 units because Atlanta has covered 2.5 in every game this year, and the spread dropped below 3.
Atlanta -2 (4 units) -$440
Under 52.5 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 9: Detroit @ Minnesota +3
The Lions are finally getting on the roll many people predicted, albeit not against top quality competition. On the other hand, the Vikings are cooling off after an early roll. If I was picking Detroit, I'd likely tease them to +4. But I'm going with the home dog for 0 units.
Minnesota +3 (0 units) +$0
Over 46 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 10: New York Jets @ Seattle -5.5
If you've been reading my picks for a few weeks now, you know who I'm picking here. The Jets are, well, the dysfunctional Jets. I'll put the over/under on Tebow starting at QB at 3.5 weeks. The Seahawks have the biggest home-field advantage in the league, and they haven't lost at home all year. Russell Wilson is for real, guys. 3 on Seattle.
Unit Change: I'm feeling this one. Gimme 4 on Seattle.
Seattle -5.5 (4 units) +$400
Over 38.5 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 11: Dallas @ Philadelphia +2
Oh my, it's the overhyped toilet bowl of the week! I teased against these teams last week, an it worked wonders. On one hand, we have the Cowboys who have looked pathetic since their opening win against the Giants. On the other hand, we have the Eagles who have seen calls to bench Vick. I'll go with, uh, Philly? I'm not touching this spread.
Unit Change: This spread has moved to 2.5, I'll lay a unit on the host, but that's all I'm comfortable with on the Eagles.
Philadelphia +2 (1 unit) -$110
Over 44 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 12: Saint Louis @ San Francisco -13
The Rams looked pathetic last time out in London against the Pats. Their front office has to be asking themselves if Bradford is really the QB of the future. They have a lot of picks from the RG3 trade to find a replacement. And here's a San Fran stat I bet you didn't know: they've allowed 12 points TOTAL in their last 3 wins. If that holds, and San Fran scores more than 15, they'll cover. I'll put 2 on them for that.
San Francisco -13 (2 units) -$220
Under 38 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 13: Houston @ Chicago -1
Oh my, this is most definitely the most intriguing game of the week. Finally, NBC shows a Sunday Night Football team not involving Peyton Manning or the NFC East. Both of these teams have 1 loss on the year to Green Bay. Houston hasn't had a game decided by less than 12 points in a month. I think that they're the 2nd best team in football behind Atlanta. Chicago's best win is Indy? Detroit? Tennessee? I like the Texans in this spot.
Unit Change: Well, I'm thinking about it more, and Chicago is overrated. 3 on Houston.
Houston +1 (3 units) +$300
Over 38.5 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 14: Kansas City @ Pittsburgh -13
Kansas City has not held a lead the whole year. Isn't that ridiculous? They're the definition of putrid at this point, it's not the Browns anymore. They didn't cover 12.5 against San Diego (twice), Buffalo or Tampa Bay. However, Pittsburgh did have that fluke loss against Oakland. I think the Steelers are definitely gaining momentum, but their habit of losing to teams they shouldn't (Oakland, Tennessee) makes me not put any units on them.
Pittsburgh -13 (0 units)
Under 40.5 (0.5 units)
Props/Teasers/Pleasers:
Moneyline: Tennessee +220 (1 unit) +$220
Teaser: Tampa Bay +3, Atlanta +4 (2 units) Push +-$0
NFL Picks Week 10: +$580
NFL Picks 2012: +$1697
+$1162! That's what I call a nice week. I'm putting .5 units on all my O/U picks after how well they did last week.
Game 1: Indianapolis @ Jacksonville +3
The Colts are surprising everyone, including myself. How on earth are they 5-3 without their coach? Andrew Luck is playing like the clear-cut #1 pick he is. The Jaguars have been certifiably awful, suffering a home blowout to the mediocre Lions last week. I'm treating this as a not quite as awesome version of the Baltimore game last week.
Indianapolis -3 (2 units) +$200
Over 42.5 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 2: Buffalo @ New England -13.5
I guess Ryan Lindell must have had some money on Houston, eh? In case you're confused, the Bills kicker missed a 35 yard field goal way wide late so the Bills lost by 12 (the spread was 10.5). The Pats are coming off a bye and a big win in London. I'll place 2 units on the host.
Unit Change: I'm dropping this to 1 unit as the spread has inflated to 13.
New England -13.5 (1 unit) -$110
Under 54 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 3: New York Giants @ Cincinnati +4
The Giants are coming off a surprising loss to the Steelers that cost me 3 units. I think they're going to wait about 2 weeks to go into Eli Manning-powered overdrive. The Bengals lost by 8 to Denver, much to my dismay last week. I think both sides are overrated here. Cincy didn't deserve to hang with Denver for that long and the Giants are emotionally flat. Going with the home dog for 0.
Cincinnati +4 (0 units) +$0
Under 47.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 4: San Diego @ Tampa Bay -3
And, terrible triangle no more! Tampa Bay, Carolina and New Orleans have learned how to play football. Josh Freeman is showing some of that first round ability he had when drafted out of K-State. The Chargers had a convincing victory over KC. I think the Bucs should be 5-6 point favorites. I'll put 1 on them.
Unit Change: I'm feeling way more confident here. The Chargers are just not that good. Bumping it to 3.
Tampa Bay -3 (3 units) +$300
Over 46.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 5: Denver @ Carolina +3.5
Denver played solid against Cincinnati, but it's a complete joke that they're at 5:1 to win the Super Bowl. The amount of Peyton-driven hype they're getting is ridiculous. Conversely, the Panthers pulled out a nice win over the Redskins. I'm not sure the Broncos will be up for this non-conference matchup.
Carolina +3.5 (1 unit) -$110
Over 46.5 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 6: Tennessee @ Miami -6.5
I have seen a TON of "experts" who are all over Tennessee. I think I'm going to have to agree. The Dolphins are a solid favorite after a loss, not a familiar situation. I was pretty high on the Titans a few weeks ago, especially against Buffalo. They're not as bad as the public thinks after the Bears game.
Unit Change: I'll bump this one to 3 as well. Why is Miami favored by this much?
Unit Change: Well, the spread has risen to the key number of 7, so I'll bump this to 4 units.
Unit Change: And it dropped below 7 again. Back to 3 units.
Tennessee +6.5 (3 units) +$300
Over 44 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 7: Oakland @ Baltimore -7.5
Uggh, Baltimore is really, really overrated. They beat KC by 7, Cleveland by 10, Cleveland by 7, etc. etc. Joe Flacco is solid, but Ray Rice needs to be seeing more carries. They'll get exposed against Pittsburgh on Sunday Night next week. The Raiders have 3 wins, and may be underrated.
Unit Change: Eh, not feeling this one anymore. Baltimore is still overrated, but the Raiders suck more than I realized.
Oakland +7.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 48 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 8: Atlanta @ New Orleans +2
I told you guys that I learned my lesson on picking against Atlanta last week after the Philly game. Well, they covered against Dallas, even if it wasn't pretty. I'm curbing my wager this week because they're playing in the Superdome, and the Saints are starting to play like a football team.
Unit Change: I'm raising this to 4 units because Atlanta has covered 2.5 in every game this year, and the spread dropped below 3.
Atlanta -2 (4 units) -$440
Under 52.5 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 9: Detroit @ Minnesota +3
The Lions are finally getting on the roll many people predicted, albeit not against top quality competition. On the other hand, the Vikings are cooling off after an early roll. If I was picking Detroit, I'd likely tease them to +4. But I'm going with the home dog for 0 units.
Minnesota +3 (0 units) +$0
Over 46 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 10: New York Jets @ Seattle -5.5
If you've been reading my picks for a few weeks now, you know who I'm picking here. The Jets are, well, the dysfunctional Jets. I'll put the over/under on Tebow starting at QB at 3.5 weeks. The Seahawks have the biggest home-field advantage in the league, and they haven't lost at home all year. Russell Wilson is for real, guys. 3 on Seattle.
Unit Change: I'm feeling this one. Gimme 4 on Seattle.
Seattle -5.5 (4 units) +$400
Over 38.5 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 11: Dallas @ Philadelphia +2
Oh my, it's the overhyped toilet bowl of the week! I teased against these teams last week, an it worked wonders. On one hand, we have the Cowboys who have looked pathetic since their opening win against the Giants. On the other hand, we have the Eagles who have seen calls to bench Vick. I'll go with, uh, Philly? I'm not touching this spread.
Unit Change: This spread has moved to 2.5, I'll lay a unit on the host, but that's all I'm comfortable with on the Eagles.
Philadelphia +2 (1 unit) -$110
Over 44 (0.5 units) +$50
Game 12: Saint Louis @ San Francisco -13
The Rams looked pathetic last time out in London against the Pats. Their front office has to be asking themselves if Bradford is really the QB of the future. They have a lot of picks from the RG3 trade to find a replacement. And here's a San Fran stat I bet you didn't know: they've allowed 12 points TOTAL in their last 3 wins. If that holds, and San Fran scores more than 15, they'll cover. I'll put 2 on them for that.
San Francisco -13 (2 units) -$220
Under 38 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 13: Houston @ Chicago -1
Oh my, this is most definitely the most intriguing game of the week. Finally, NBC shows a Sunday Night Football team not involving Peyton Manning or the NFC East. Both of these teams have 1 loss on the year to Green Bay. Houston hasn't had a game decided by less than 12 points in a month. I think that they're the 2nd best team in football behind Atlanta. Chicago's best win is Indy? Detroit? Tennessee? I like the Texans in this spot.
Unit Change: Well, I'm thinking about it more, and Chicago is overrated. 3 on Houston.
Houston +1 (3 units) +$300
Over 38.5 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 14: Kansas City @ Pittsburgh -13
Kansas City has not held a lead the whole year. Isn't that ridiculous? They're the definition of putrid at this point, it's not the Browns anymore. They didn't cover 12.5 against San Diego (twice), Buffalo or Tampa Bay. However, Pittsburgh did have that fluke loss against Oakland. I think the Steelers are definitely gaining momentum, but their habit of losing to teams they shouldn't (Oakland, Tennessee) makes me not put any units on them.
Pittsburgh -13 (0 units)
Under 40.5 (0.5 units)
Props/Teasers/Pleasers:
Moneyline: Tennessee +220 (1 unit) +$220
Teaser: Tampa Bay +3, Atlanta +4 (2 units) Push +-$0
NFL Picks Week 10: +$580
NFL Picks 2012: +$1697
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