NFL Picks Week 11
Quite a solid week at +$580. Solid chunk of change there. The Atlanta game was beyond stressful. How do you not convert when you have 1st and goal when you're undefeated. Uggh. I'm gonna stop the 0.5 on all O/U because it's silly in retrospect. Here we go...
Game 1: Miami @ Buffalo -1
Before we start, I'd like to point out that there was no line I saw and instantly thought "that's a big pick". I had that with Atlanta an Tennessee last week. Back to this game, the Dolphins are coming off a blowout loss to the aforementioned Titans. I normally like picking teams that just got blown out (like the Titans last week!) but the Dolphins should not be considered better than Buffalo by 2 points. I'm not sure the Bills will be up for this game after the heartbreaker against New England. 1 on the Bills.
Unit Change: OK, I've been awful on Thursday Nights this year. But I'll bump this play up.
Buffalo -1 (2 units) +$200
Under 45 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Philadelphia @ Washington -3.5
Well, maybe I lied. I did have a clear idea who to pick when I saw this line. The Eagles are coming off a complete demolition at the hands of the Cowboys (ouch!) while the Skins will be focused after the bye. Meanwhile, Michael Vick could be out for this contest, and the spread will inflate if he is. I'll probably reduce this play in that case.
Unit Change: I'm dropping this to 2 units cause the spread rose over 3.
Washington -3.5 (2 units) +$200
Over 45 (0 units) -$0
Game 3: Green Bay @ Detroit +3
Hurrah! My Lions don't have to get demolished by Green Bay on Thanksgiving this year. Instead, we get to be demolished by Houston! Th Lions have a ridiculous schedule this year. Green Bay twice, Chicago twice, Atlanta, Houston etc. Anyways, the Packers should be favored by about 6 here IMO. They'll be up for this non-conference tilt. I'm limiting my wager on them because the Lions have shown flashes of brilliance this year.
Green Bay -3 (2 units) +$200
Under 52.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 4: Arizona @ Atlanta -9.5
The most interesting aspect of this game, in my opinion, is the psychology on Atlanta's side. Whether or not they're up for this game will be a good indicator of how the rest of the year will go for them. Arizona has dropped 5 straight since their undefeated start, and are starting to play like the Cardinals again. The Falcons probably should not be 10 point favorites here, but I have no confidence in the Cards' offense.
Unit Change: I'll put half a unit on the over in this contest, both these teams have solid offenses.
Arizona +9.5 (0 units) +$0
Over 43.5 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 5: Tampa Bay @ Carolina +1
This one jumped out to me as a game to watch when looking at the spreads this week. Carolina was one of my favorite teams to pick (see WAS/CAR write-up) but my reason for picking them went out the window against Denver. On the other hand, Tampa has been on fire as of late. I'll put 2 units on the Panthers, as I'm not sure the Bucs will respond well to being road favorites.
Carolina +1 (2 units) -$220
Over 47.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 6: Cleveland @ Dallas -7.5
Dallas? As a favorite of more than a touchdown? Wow. Cleveland is not that bad, Trent Richardson is learning the NFL and making the Browns significantly better in the process. Everybody and their mother is overreacting to Dallas' win over an even more awful Eagles side. This line is over the key number of 7, I'll lay 3 units on the visitor.
Cleveland +7 (3 units) +$300
Over 43.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 7: New York Jets @ Saint Louis -3.5
This is quite an interesting matchup for a number of reasons. First of all, a Jets blowout loss could lead to Tebow becoming the starting QB (despite what Herm Edwards might say). Additionally, we have the psychology factor on both sides. How will the Rams respond after their tie? Will the Jets realize this is a key game or will they wilt in a second game out west? There's too many variables here for me to wager.
New York Jets +3.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 38.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 8: Indianapolis @ New England -10
I have a feeling that this could be a statement game for Andrew Luck and the Colts. With a win here, he'll have slayed the dragon of the AFC in Foxborough. You've got to believe he'll play for that. The Patriots may ease up over the next two weeks before their annual late-season push. Also, why is this game important for New England? They're many games up in the AFC East. Colts for 3.
Indianapolis +10 (3 units) -$330
Under 54 (0 units) -$0
Game 9: Jacksonville @ Houston -15.5
16 points!!! I immediately knew how I was betting this game when I saw this line, but I'll get to that in a second. Jacksonville has been in a similar situation this year against the Packers in Green Bay. Houston, however, has not. I'm putting 0 units here.
Jacksonville +15.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 40.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 10: Cincinnati @ Kansas City +3
Well, we've got 2 teams coming off nice performances. The Bengals squashed the Giants in Cincy last week, while the Chiefs held a lead an took the Steelers to overtime in Pittsburgh. The Chiefs should be very invigorated for this contest, but that's not the main reason I'm laying 4 units on them. The Bengals are in a unfamiliar spot as a road favorite, and they've been quite awful aside from that Giants game.
Unit Change: I'm starting to feel uncomfortable about the Chiefs playing sluggishly after the Monday Night loss. Dropping this to 3.
Unit Change: Spread has dropped to 3, dropping the pick to 2.
Kansas City +3 (2 units) -$220
Over 42.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 11: New Orleans @ Oakland +5
New Orleans as a 5 point road favorite??? Oh my. Then again, it is against an awful Raiders team. Can Brees and company finally reach .500? Honestly, the main reason I'll be paying attention to this game is because I picked up Carson Palmer in my fantasy league because Big Ben is injured and Tony Romo sucks. I have no read here.
Unit Change: OK, both these teams have OK offenses, but 55 for the O/U? Yeesh. I'll put a unit on the under.
Oakland +5 (0 units) -$0
Under 55.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 12: San Diego @ Denver -8
Whenever my dad talks about the Chargers, the first words out of his mouth are always "the Norv Turner factor". It seems the Norv Turner factor has taken full control of the Chargers, sending them spiraling. At 3-6, they likely have to win out to make the playoffs. The Broncos are playing quite well, but I'm not sure they'll be up for this contest when they're way up in the division, so I'll curb my wager.
Denver -8 (2 units) -$220
Over 48 (0 units) +$0
Game 13: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh +3
The major storyline here, obviously, is the injury to Ben Roethlisberger. In fact, the injury to Big Ben is one of the main reasons I like Pittsburgh. I don't think a slightly above average quarterback should induce a 6-point swing in the line. The Steelers have covered +3.5 in every game since week 1, while the Ravens have been sluggish as of late (HOU, KC). The only reason I'm not placing 4 on Pittsburgh is because Byron Leftwich is a below average backup.
Unit Change: C'mon, these defenses aren't that good. Half a unit on over 40.
Pittsburgh +3 (3 units) +-$0
Over 40 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 14: Chicago @ San Francisco -3.5
Really short on time, but don't have a read on either side, so not going to type something up. However, even sans starting QB's, an O/U of 34 is ridiculous. Gimme a unit on the over.
Chicago +3.5 (0 units) -$0
Over 34 (1 unit) +$100
Pleasers/Teasers/Parlays:
Moneyline: Cleveland +300 (1 unit) -$110
Moneyline: New York Jets +164 (0.5 units) +$82
NFL Picks Week 11: +$8
NFL Picks 2012: +$1705
Game 1: Miami @ Buffalo -1
Before we start, I'd like to point out that there was no line I saw and instantly thought "that's a big pick". I had that with Atlanta an Tennessee last week. Back to this game, the Dolphins are coming off a blowout loss to the aforementioned Titans. I normally like picking teams that just got blown out (like the Titans last week!) but the Dolphins should not be considered better than Buffalo by 2 points. I'm not sure the Bills will be up for this game after the heartbreaker against New England. 1 on the Bills.
Unit Change: OK, I've been awful on Thursday Nights this year. But I'll bump this play up.
Buffalo -1 (2 units) +$200
Under 45 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Philadelphia @ Washington -3.5
Well, maybe I lied. I did have a clear idea who to pick when I saw this line. The Eagles are coming off a complete demolition at the hands of the Cowboys (ouch!) while the Skins will be focused after the bye. Meanwhile, Michael Vick could be out for this contest, and the spread will inflate if he is. I'll probably reduce this play in that case.
Unit Change: I'm dropping this to 2 units cause the spread rose over 3.
Washington -3.5 (2 units) +$200
Over 45 (0 units) -$0
Game 3: Green Bay @ Detroit +3
Hurrah! My Lions don't have to get demolished by Green Bay on Thanksgiving this year. Instead, we get to be demolished by Houston! Th Lions have a ridiculous schedule this year. Green Bay twice, Chicago twice, Atlanta, Houston etc. Anyways, the Packers should be favored by about 6 here IMO. They'll be up for this non-conference tilt. I'm limiting my wager on them because the Lions have shown flashes of brilliance this year.
Green Bay -3 (2 units) +$200
Under 52.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 4: Arizona @ Atlanta -9.5
The most interesting aspect of this game, in my opinion, is the psychology on Atlanta's side. Whether or not they're up for this game will be a good indicator of how the rest of the year will go for them. Arizona has dropped 5 straight since their undefeated start, and are starting to play like the Cardinals again. The Falcons probably should not be 10 point favorites here, but I have no confidence in the Cards' offense.
Unit Change: I'll put half a unit on the over in this contest, both these teams have solid offenses.
Arizona +9.5 (0 units) +$0
Over 43.5 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 5: Tampa Bay @ Carolina +1
This one jumped out to me as a game to watch when looking at the spreads this week. Carolina was one of my favorite teams to pick (see WAS/CAR write-up) but my reason for picking them went out the window against Denver. On the other hand, Tampa has been on fire as of late. I'll put 2 units on the Panthers, as I'm not sure the Bucs will respond well to being road favorites.
Carolina +1 (2 units) -$220
Over 47.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 6: Cleveland @ Dallas -7.5
Dallas? As a favorite of more than a touchdown? Wow. Cleveland is not that bad, Trent Richardson is learning the NFL and making the Browns significantly better in the process. Everybody and their mother is overreacting to Dallas' win over an even more awful Eagles side. This line is over the key number of 7, I'll lay 3 units on the visitor.
Cleveland +7 (3 units) +$300
Over 43.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 7: New York Jets @ Saint Louis -3.5
This is quite an interesting matchup for a number of reasons. First of all, a Jets blowout loss could lead to Tebow becoming the starting QB (despite what Herm Edwards might say). Additionally, we have the psychology factor on both sides. How will the Rams respond after their tie? Will the Jets realize this is a key game or will they wilt in a second game out west? There's too many variables here for me to wager.
New York Jets +3.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 38.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 8: Indianapolis @ New England -10
I have a feeling that this could be a statement game for Andrew Luck and the Colts. With a win here, he'll have slayed the dragon of the AFC in Foxborough. You've got to believe he'll play for that. The Patriots may ease up over the next two weeks before their annual late-season push. Also, why is this game important for New England? They're many games up in the AFC East. Colts for 3.
Indianapolis +10 (3 units) -$330
Under 54 (0 units) -$0
Game 9: Jacksonville @ Houston -15.5
16 points!!! I immediately knew how I was betting this game when I saw this line, but I'll get to that in a second. Jacksonville has been in a similar situation this year against the Packers in Green Bay. Houston, however, has not. I'm putting 0 units here.
Jacksonville +15.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 40.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 10: Cincinnati @ Kansas City +3
Well, we've got 2 teams coming off nice performances. The Bengals squashed the Giants in Cincy last week, while the Chiefs held a lead an took the Steelers to overtime in Pittsburgh. The Chiefs should be very invigorated for this contest, but that's not the main reason I'm laying 4 units on them. The Bengals are in a unfamiliar spot as a road favorite, and they've been quite awful aside from that Giants game.
Unit Change: I'm starting to feel uncomfortable about the Chiefs playing sluggishly after the Monday Night loss. Dropping this to 3.
Unit Change: Spread has dropped to 3, dropping the pick to 2.
Kansas City +3 (2 units) -$220
Over 42.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 11: New Orleans @ Oakland +5
New Orleans as a 5 point road favorite??? Oh my. Then again, it is against an awful Raiders team. Can Brees and company finally reach .500? Honestly, the main reason I'll be paying attention to this game is because I picked up Carson Palmer in my fantasy league because Big Ben is injured and Tony Romo sucks. I have no read here.
Unit Change: OK, both these teams have OK offenses, but 55 for the O/U? Yeesh. I'll put a unit on the under.
Oakland +5 (0 units) -$0
Under 55.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 12: San Diego @ Denver -8
Whenever my dad talks about the Chargers, the first words out of his mouth are always "the Norv Turner factor". It seems the Norv Turner factor has taken full control of the Chargers, sending them spiraling. At 3-6, they likely have to win out to make the playoffs. The Broncos are playing quite well, but I'm not sure they'll be up for this contest when they're way up in the division, so I'll curb my wager.
Denver -8 (2 units) -$220
Over 48 (0 units) +$0
Game 13: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh +3
The major storyline here, obviously, is the injury to Ben Roethlisberger. In fact, the injury to Big Ben is one of the main reasons I like Pittsburgh. I don't think a slightly above average quarterback should induce a 6-point swing in the line. The Steelers have covered +3.5 in every game since week 1, while the Ravens have been sluggish as of late (HOU, KC). The only reason I'm not placing 4 on Pittsburgh is because Byron Leftwich is a below average backup.
Unit Change: C'mon, these defenses aren't that good. Half a unit on over 40.
Pittsburgh +3 (3 units) +-$0
Over 40 (0.5 units) -$55
Game 14: Chicago @ San Francisco -3.5
Really short on time, but don't have a read on either side, so not going to type something up. However, even sans starting QB's, an O/U of 34 is ridiculous. Gimme a unit on the over.
Chicago +3.5 (0 units) -$0
Over 34 (1 unit) +$100
Pleasers/Teasers/Parlays:
Moneyline: Cleveland +300 (1 unit) -$110
Moneyline: New York Jets +164 (0.5 units) +$82
NFL Picks Week 11: +$8
NFL Picks 2012: +$1705
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