NFL Picks Week 15
Game 1: Cincinnati @ Philadelphia +2.5
Sorry about my lack of write-ups last week. I still did pretty good, and my phone is working again! So I can actually post this week. The Bengals are certainly very interesting, and still tied for the last playoff spot despite the shocking loss to Dallas at the last second. Nick Foles may be coming around, but Cincy needs this game.
Cincinnati -2.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 2: Green Bay @ Chicago +2.5
I have no idea why the Packers aren't being discussed as co-favorites for the NFC. I'd say Green Bay and the Giants have the best shot at winning the conference. The Packers may have finally found a good running back in Alex Green. The Bears are possibly sliding out of the playoffs. I have no read here, so I'll go with the home dog.
Chicago +2.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 3: New York Giants @ Atlanta -1.5
I feel there's a lot of even matchups this week. Good teams are playing other good teams and bad teams are playing other bad teams. Should make 1 PM RedZone pretty entertaining! I'm shocked there isn't more action on Atlanta. Is public perception of the 11-2 Falcons that bad? The Giants are finally going on their late season tear, but I'm going to lay off the play here because Atlanta is quite solid.
New York Giants +1.5 (1 unit) -$110
Game 4: Tampa Bay @ New Orleans -3.5
Do you see my point? Almost all the games have a line within 4 or so points of -3. The Bucs are finally crashing back down to earth, just like their fellow 6-7 squad they play here. However, I think Drew Brees will go off. The Saints are playing for pride, and they're just stronger than Tampa (especially in the Superdome).
New Orleans -3.5 (2 units) +$200
Game 5: Minnesota @ Saint Louis -3
2 teams I think are really undervalued are facing off in this one. The Vikings would be in playoff position if their division wasn't so brutal, I think. The Rams are playing solid football under Sam Bradford, and they're quite capable of beating anybody. I planned on making a big play on the Rams this week until I realized who they were playing. I'll put 2 units on Minny.
Minnesota +3 (2 units) +$200
Game 6: Washington @ Cleveland -2
Well, a line has finally been posted now that RG3 has been ruled out and Kirk Cousins is starting in his place. I am going to attempt to not to pick Cousins at every opportunity, considering he was MSU's starting QB for numerous years. The Browns are playing respectable football again, but I don't think they can stop the train that is the Redskins. Even if Cousins is only serviceable, the rest of the offense is good. Gimme Skins for 3.
Washington +2 (3 units) +$300
Game 7: Jacksonville @ Miami -7.5
Jacksonville vs. Miami. Yet another stinkfest between two teams that are all but eliminated for the playoffs (well, the Jaguars ARE eliminated). The Jaguars were playing good football under Chad Henne, but have been slipping. The Dolphins have the 6-and-6 rule working against them, which is you don't lay 6 or more points on a team that will win 6 or less games. I'll put a unit on the Jags.
Jacksonville +7.5 (1 unit) -$110
Game 8: Denver @ Baltimore +3
I feel like Denver is the Super Bowl contender I know the least about. Sure, they have Manning, but I feel as if they haven't been tested lately. Baltimore's fluke of a record is finally starting to catch up with them, as Cam Cameron has been shown the door at OC. I've got no read here, the Ravens don't often lose at home.
Baltimore +3 (0 units) -$0
Game 9: Indianapolis @ Houston -10
Well, this is an interesting situation. A team that can clinch a playoff berth this week is a double digit underdog. The Colts have a lot of media hype behind them with Andrew Luck and Chuckstrong. The Texans lost last week, and they beat a solid Baltimore team into the ground the week after their first loss. Because of that, I'll limit my wager on Indy.
Indianapolis +10 (1 unit) -$110
Game 10: Carolina @ San Diego -3
The Panthers are having the sophomore slump year with Cam Newton I predicted. However, they have won 2 of their last 3 including a shocking win over Atlanta. The Chargers snapped a 7 out of 8 skid (with the one win against KC, which shouldn't count with how bad the Chiefs are) by beating Pittsburgh last week. I've got no feel for this one.
San Diego -3 (0 units) -$0
Game 11: Detroit @ Arizona +6.5
Whoa, whoa. I know Arizona has lost nine in a row, but the Lions do not deserve to be a 6.5 point road favorite against anyone in this league except maybe Jacksonville or Kansas City. The Lions also have practically every wide receiver on their roster injured. Against teams the Lions are similar to that the Cards have played (Philly, Miami, Rams twice, Buffalo, Jets) they're 4-2 against a +6.5 spread. Cards for 2.
Arizona +6.5 (2 units) +$200
Game 12: Seattle @ Buffalo +5
The Seahawks are coming off a 58-0 dominating win against Arizona. That puts a very interesting spin on this game psychologically, especially when you factor in the fact that Seattle has 2 division games after this against better teams than Buffalo. The Bills have covered +5 at home every week since September 30th, even if this one is in Toronto. I'll go 0 units on Seattle.
Seattle -5 (0 units) +$0
Game 13: Kansas City @ Oakland -3
Oh, this game has to be christened the ultimate toilet bowl. The Chiefs have actually showed signs of something besides complete incompetence over the last few weeks, but the Raiders have not. Oakland has lost 6 in a row, and they have not covered -3 at home all year (even against the likes of Jacksonville). I think KC sucks considerably less than Oakland. 3 units on the visitor.
Kansas City +3 (3 units) -$330
Game 14: Pittsburgh @ Dallas +1.5
Both of these teams desperately need this game for their playoff hopes. If the Steelers lose, they'll fall a crucial game behind Cincy in the race for the last AFC spot. If the Cowboys lose, they could fall 2 games behind the Giants for the NFC East with 2 games to play. I have no feel here, leaning towards Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh -1.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 15: San Francisco @ New England -4
Murder's row for the Patriots. Houston, now San Francisco. For the 49ers, they travel to Seattle after this one where the Seahawks are undefeated on the year. Colin Kaepernick has showed mild signs of regression, but I expect him to improve again now that the spotlight is off him. However, Brady and the Pats are the most solid, complete team in the league and have been that way for years. 2 units on the host.
New England -4 (2 units) -$220
Game 16: New York Jets @ Tennessee -1.5
And this is what we get for Monday night? Really? The overhyped Jets take on the completely identity-less Titans. Mark Sanchez is holding onto his job by the skin of his teeth in New York, and I think Rex Ryan could be out after this year. Meanwhile, the Titans have lost 5 of 6 since a promising start. I think I'll go Tennessee for no units.
Tennessee -1.5 (0 units) +$0
NFL Week 15: +$220 (2.2 units)
NFL 2012: +$2320 (23.2 units)
Sorry about my lack of write-ups last week. I still did pretty good, and my phone is working again! So I can actually post this week. The Bengals are certainly very interesting, and still tied for the last playoff spot despite the shocking loss to Dallas at the last second. Nick Foles may be coming around, but Cincy needs this game.
Cincinnati -2.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 2: Green Bay @ Chicago +2.5
I have no idea why the Packers aren't being discussed as co-favorites for the NFC. I'd say Green Bay and the Giants have the best shot at winning the conference. The Packers may have finally found a good running back in Alex Green. The Bears are possibly sliding out of the playoffs. I have no read here, so I'll go with the home dog.
Chicago +2.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 3: New York Giants @ Atlanta -1.5
I feel there's a lot of even matchups this week. Good teams are playing other good teams and bad teams are playing other bad teams. Should make 1 PM RedZone pretty entertaining! I'm shocked there isn't more action on Atlanta. Is public perception of the 11-2 Falcons that bad? The Giants are finally going on their late season tear, but I'm going to lay off the play here because Atlanta is quite solid.
New York Giants +1.5 (1 unit) -$110
Game 4: Tampa Bay @ New Orleans -3.5
Do you see my point? Almost all the games have a line within 4 or so points of -3. The Bucs are finally crashing back down to earth, just like their fellow 6-7 squad they play here. However, I think Drew Brees will go off. The Saints are playing for pride, and they're just stronger than Tampa (especially in the Superdome).
New Orleans -3.5 (2 units) +$200
Game 5: Minnesota @ Saint Louis -3
2 teams I think are really undervalued are facing off in this one. The Vikings would be in playoff position if their division wasn't so brutal, I think. The Rams are playing solid football under Sam Bradford, and they're quite capable of beating anybody. I planned on making a big play on the Rams this week until I realized who they were playing. I'll put 2 units on Minny.
Minnesota +3 (2 units) +$200
Game 6: Washington @ Cleveland -2
Well, a line has finally been posted now that RG3 has been ruled out and Kirk Cousins is starting in his place. I am going to attempt to not to pick Cousins at every opportunity, considering he was MSU's starting QB for numerous years. The Browns are playing respectable football again, but I don't think they can stop the train that is the Redskins. Even if Cousins is only serviceable, the rest of the offense is good. Gimme Skins for 3.
Washington +2 (3 units) +$300
Game 7: Jacksonville @ Miami -7.5
Jacksonville vs. Miami. Yet another stinkfest between two teams that are all but eliminated for the playoffs (well, the Jaguars ARE eliminated). The Jaguars were playing good football under Chad Henne, but have been slipping. The Dolphins have the 6-and-6 rule working against them, which is you don't lay 6 or more points on a team that will win 6 or less games. I'll put a unit on the Jags.
Jacksonville +7.5 (1 unit) -$110
Game 8: Denver @ Baltimore +3
I feel like Denver is the Super Bowl contender I know the least about. Sure, they have Manning, but I feel as if they haven't been tested lately. Baltimore's fluke of a record is finally starting to catch up with them, as Cam Cameron has been shown the door at OC. I've got no read here, the Ravens don't often lose at home.
Baltimore +3 (0 units) -$0
Game 9: Indianapolis @ Houston -10
Well, this is an interesting situation. A team that can clinch a playoff berth this week is a double digit underdog. The Colts have a lot of media hype behind them with Andrew Luck and Chuckstrong. The Texans lost last week, and they beat a solid Baltimore team into the ground the week after their first loss. Because of that, I'll limit my wager on Indy.
Indianapolis +10 (1 unit) -$110
Game 10: Carolina @ San Diego -3
The Panthers are having the sophomore slump year with Cam Newton I predicted. However, they have won 2 of their last 3 including a shocking win over Atlanta. The Chargers snapped a 7 out of 8 skid (with the one win against KC, which shouldn't count with how bad the Chiefs are) by beating Pittsburgh last week. I've got no feel for this one.
San Diego -3 (0 units) -$0
Game 11: Detroit @ Arizona +6.5
Whoa, whoa. I know Arizona has lost nine in a row, but the Lions do not deserve to be a 6.5 point road favorite against anyone in this league except maybe Jacksonville or Kansas City. The Lions also have practically every wide receiver on their roster injured. Against teams the Lions are similar to that the Cards have played (Philly, Miami, Rams twice, Buffalo, Jets) they're 4-2 against a +6.5 spread. Cards for 2.
Arizona +6.5 (2 units) +$200
Game 12: Seattle @ Buffalo +5
The Seahawks are coming off a 58-0 dominating win against Arizona. That puts a very interesting spin on this game psychologically, especially when you factor in the fact that Seattle has 2 division games after this against better teams than Buffalo. The Bills have covered +5 at home every week since September 30th, even if this one is in Toronto. I'll go 0 units on Seattle.
Seattle -5 (0 units) +$0
Game 13: Kansas City @ Oakland -3
Oh, this game has to be christened the ultimate toilet bowl. The Chiefs have actually showed signs of something besides complete incompetence over the last few weeks, but the Raiders have not. Oakland has lost 6 in a row, and they have not covered -3 at home all year (even against the likes of Jacksonville). I think KC sucks considerably less than Oakland. 3 units on the visitor.
Kansas City +3 (3 units) -$330
Game 14: Pittsburgh @ Dallas +1.5
Both of these teams desperately need this game for their playoff hopes. If the Steelers lose, they'll fall a crucial game behind Cincy in the race for the last AFC spot. If the Cowboys lose, they could fall 2 games behind the Giants for the NFC East with 2 games to play. I have no feel here, leaning towards Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh -1.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 15: San Francisco @ New England -4
Murder's row for the Patriots. Houston, now San Francisco. For the 49ers, they travel to Seattle after this one where the Seahawks are undefeated on the year. Colin Kaepernick has showed mild signs of regression, but I expect him to improve again now that the spotlight is off him. However, Brady and the Pats are the most solid, complete team in the league and have been that way for years. 2 units on the host.
New England -4 (2 units) -$220
Game 16: New York Jets @ Tennessee -1.5
And this is what we get for Monday night? Really? The overhyped Jets take on the completely identity-less Titans. Mark Sanchez is holding onto his job by the skin of his teeth in New York, and I think Rex Ryan could be out after this year. Meanwhile, the Titans have lost 5 of 6 since a promising start. I think I'll go Tennessee for no units.
Tennessee -1.5 (0 units) +$0
NFL Week 15: +$220 (2.2 units)
NFL 2012: +$2320 (23.2 units)
Comments
Post a Comment