NFL Picks Week 13
I was done with the first 3 games, tried to upload it and my Blogger app swallowed it into nothingness. Interesting.
Game 1: New Orleans @ Atlanta -3.5
Finally, an interesting Thursday nighter. No more Dolphins/Bills, Vikings/Buccaneers etc. The Saints are on fire, really playing well since their pitiful 0-4 start. The Falcons have a history of squeaking by at home this year against bad teams like Arizona. I like the Saints for 1.5, keeping it low because I can't get a read on Thursday games.
New Orleans +3.5 (1.5 units) -$165
Under 56 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Seattle @ Chicago -3
Huh? How are the Bears not at least 6 to 7 point favorites? Seattle is not a good team on the road, and an elite team at home. The Bears are one of the best teams in the NFC. I think that Russell Wilson is going to start to falter on the home stretch, so I'm going with the Bears for 2.2 units because I think they're significantly better than Seattle.
Chicago -3 (2.2 units) -$242
Over 37 (0 units) +$0
Game 3: Minnesota @ Green Bay -7.5
If you're wondering why I'm wagering strange amounts like 2.2 units, check out the post I just made about bankroll
management. What used to be a 3 unit pick is now 2.2. The Vikings have proved they're likely not progressing past the Wild-card round after a drubbing from the Bears last week. The Packers aren't getting any respect after the Giants game, do people forget they killed Houston? A unit on Green Bay.
Green Bay -7.5 (1 unit) +$100
Over 47 (0 units) -$0
Game 4: San Francisco @ Saint Louis +7.5
The 49ers come into this game having declared Colin Kaepernick the starting quarterback, which I don't believe is the right move. The 49ers got on the wrong path last week when they didn't put Alex Smith in at quarterback. You need to have stability at QB, and having the inexperienced Kaepernick quarterbacking your team in the playoffs doesn't sound ideal to me. Onto this game, I'm a little hesitant to pick either side. I think the 49ers are more than 10 points better than the Rams. I'm not comfortable making a play against the Rams in this spot, who have had so much variance this year.
San Francisco -7.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 41 (0 units) +$0
Game 5: Arizona @ New York Jets -6
The Cardinals are quite a strange team to get a read on after their 4-0 start. How will they respond to traveling cross country when they're all but eliminated from the playoffs? What about the Jets, who have a split locker room? I'll place a unit on 'Zona.
Unit Change: This line has gone way up. Zona for $170.
Arizona +6 (1.7 units) +$170
Over 37 (0 units) -$0
Game 6: Carolina @ Kansas City +5.5
For the second week in a row, the Panthers are road favorites! Cam Newton looks like he finally found his stride this year against Philly last week, but them again it is the Eagles. The Chiefs showed some life as well, keeping the Denver game close. I'm going to pick the spot, not the team, and fade the bad team that's a road favorite on short rest.
Unit Change: Both sides are unbettable after the tragedy.
Carolina -5.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 41.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 7: Indianapolis @ Detroit -7
Huh? The 4-7 Lions are supposedly better than the 7-4 Colts? I understand the Colts aren't as good as their record may indicate and that the Lions may be better than theirs, but what? Andrew Luck is very solid and Vick Ballard is better than most give him credit for, and the Colts are more than a hoax. Contrarily, the Lions are undisciplined and lack a solid ground option. I'm limiting my play to 2.2 units because this seem too good to be true.
Unit Change: What on earth is going on here? Detroit by 7???
Indianapolis +7 (2.2 units) +$220
Under 51 (0 units) -$0
Game 8: Jacksonville @ Buffalo -6
Buffalo as a 5.5 point favorite? I understand this is the Jaguars, but still. The Jaguars may have finally discovered how to play football, with a win over the Titans and a close game with the Texans under their belt. The Bills are really one of the most unremarkable teams in the NFL, but they're on long rest after a Thursday nighter. I don't get this line. Jags for 3.
Jacksonville +6 (3 units) -$330
Over 41 (0 units) +$0
Game 9: New England @ Miami +7
Oh no, a huge road favorite. I hate these lines. The Pats are most definitely going to be a contender for the AFC, and they might be the leading contender right now. The Dolphins are better than most think, and could become surprise playoff contenders if they string together some W's. I don't have a read here, so I'm not going to manufacture one. My gut tells me Miami, so the Dolphins it is.
Miami +7 (0 units) +-$0
Over 51 (0 units) -$0
Game 10: Houston @ Tennessee +6
I wonder how many people are going to be teasing Houston to PK. Spoiler alert, I probably will. The Texans are probably not as good as their 10-1 record would indicate because of the soft AFC. However, they've proven that they could be a solid team for years to come (possibly more on that in a column this weekend). The Titans may be down because they're out of playoff contention. Houston for 1.7.
Houston +6 (1.7 units) +$170
Under 47.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 11: Tampa Bay @ Denver -7.5
The Bucs are a quality team, and my pick to get the 6th playoff spot in th NFC. I think that Josh Freeman can become an Alex Smith like game manager type of QB. I'm fading the Broncos, everyone has been loving them all year with Peyton, but you're not elite without a real running game. TB for 1.7.
Tampa Bay +7.5 (1.7 units) -$187
Under 50 (0 units) -$0
Game 12: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore -7.5
It's the return of the Pittsburgh fumbling circus, with fossilized ring leader Charlie Batch! However, they're playing the overrated Ravens. I don't think the Steelers can replicate their 8 fumble performance, while most people seem to have forgotten the Ravens' near losses to teams like KC. Pitt for 2.2. I'm putting a unit on the over, as I think the Pittsburgh offense will step up.
Pittsburgh +7.5 (2.2 units) +$220
Over 36.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 13: Cleveland @ Oakland +2.5
The Browns are almost a 3 point favorite traveling to the west coast. I guess that tells you just how awful the Raiders are. Why on earth did I start Carson Palmer last week? The Brownies are starting to play respectable football, and Trent Richardson may be their franchise player of the future. However, I'm not comfortable laying units on a 3-8 team that's a solid road favorite.
Cleveland -2.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 38.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 14: Cincinnati @ San Diego +1
The Bengals are quite impressive, and they're my pick to get the 6th and final AFC playoff spot. Andy Dalton is another guy who has the potential to be a solid game manager over the next fee years. The Chargers are dysfunctional and cursed by the Norv Turner factor. I'll lay a unit on Cincy.
Cincinnati -1 (1 unit) +$100
Under 46 (0 units) +$0
Game 15: Philadelphia @ Dallas -10.5
OK, I'm about to hop on a plane and need to get this pick in. Long story short, I have no read here.
Philadelphia +10.5 (0 units) +$0
Over 48 (0 units) +$0
Game 16: New York Giants @ Washington +3
Props/Teasers/Pleasers:
Teaser: Jacksonville +12, Houston PK (2 units) -$220
NFL Picks Week 13: -$64
Game 1: New Orleans @ Atlanta -3.5
Finally, an interesting Thursday nighter. No more Dolphins/Bills, Vikings/Buccaneers etc. The Saints are on fire, really playing well since their pitiful 0-4 start. The Falcons have a history of squeaking by at home this year against bad teams like Arizona. I like the Saints for 1.5, keeping it low because I can't get a read on Thursday games.
New Orleans +3.5 (1.5 units) -$165
Under 56 (0 units) +$0
Game 2: Seattle @ Chicago -3
Huh? How are the Bears not at least 6 to 7 point favorites? Seattle is not a good team on the road, and an elite team at home. The Bears are one of the best teams in the NFC. I think that Russell Wilson is going to start to falter on the home stretch, so I'm going with the Bears for 2.2 units because I think they're significantly better than Seattle.
Chicago -3 (2.2 units) -$242
Over 37 (0 units) +$0
Game 3: Minnesota @ Green Bay -7.5
If you're wondering why I'm wagering strange amounts like 2.2 units, check out the post I just made about bankroll
management. What used to be a 3 unit pick is now 2.2. The Vikings have proved they're likely not progressing past the Wild-card round after a drubbing from the Bears last week. The Packers aren't getting any respect after the Giants game, do people forget they killed Houston? A unit on Green Bay.
Green Bay -7.5 (1 unit) +$100
Over 47 (0 units) -$0
Game 4: San Francisco @ Saint Louis +7.5
The 49ers come into this game having declared Colin Kaepernick the starting quarterback, which I don't believe is the right move. The 49ers got on the wrong path last week when they didn't put Alex Smith in at quarterback. You need to have stability at QB, and having the inexperienced Kaepernick quarterbacking your team in the playoffs doesn't sound ideal to me. Onto this game, I'm a little hesitant to pick either side. I think the 49ers are more than 10 points better than the Rams. I'm not comfortable making a play against the Rams in this spot, who have had so much variance this year.
San Francisco -7.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 41 (0 units) +$0
Game 5: Arizona @ New York Jets -6
The Cardinals are quite a strange team to get a read on after their 4-0 start. How will they respond to traveling cross country when they're all but eliminated from the playoffs? What about the Jets, who have a split locker room? I'll place a unit on 'Zona.
Unit Change: This line has gone way up. Zona for $170.
Arizona +6 (1.7 units) +$170
Over 37 (0 units) -$0
Game 6: Carolina @ Kansas City +5.5
For the second week in a row, the Panthers are road favorites! Cam Newton looks like he finally found his stride this year against Philly last week, but them again it is the Eagles. The Chiefs showed some life as well, keeping the Denver game close. I'm going to pick the spot, not the team, and fade the bad team that's a road favorite on short rest.
Unit Change: Both sides are unbettable after the tragedy.
Carolina -5.5 (0 units) -$0
Under 41.5 (0 units) -$0
Game 7: Indianapolis @ Detroit -7
Huh? The 4-7 Lions are supposedly better than the 7-4 Colts? I understand the Colts aren't as good as their record may indicate and that the Lions may be better than theirs, but what? Andrew Luck is very solid and Vick Ballard is better than most give him credit for, and the Colts are more than a hoax. Contrarily, the Lions are undisciplined and lack a solid ground option. I'm limiting my play to 2.2 units because this seem too good to be true.
Unit Change: What on earth is going on here? Detroit by 7???
Indianapolis +7 (2.2 units) +$220
Under 51 (0 units) -$0
Game 8: Jacksonville @ Buffalo -6
Buffalo as a 5.5 point favorite? I understand this is the Jaguars, but still. The Jaguars may have finally discovered how to play football, with a win over the Titans and a close game with the Texans under their belt. The Bills are really one of the most unremarkable teams in the NFL, but they're on long rest after a Thursday nighter. I don't get this line. Jags for 3.
Jacksonville +6 (3 units) -$330
Over 41 (0 units) +$0
Game 9: New England @ Miami +7
Oh no, a huge road favorite. I hate these lines. The Pats are most definitely going to be a contender for the AFC, and they might be the leading contender right now. The Dolphins are better than most think, and could become surprise playoff contenders if they string together some W's. I don't have a read here, so I'm not going to manufacture one. My gut tells me Miami, so the Dolphins it is.
Miami +7 (0 units) +-$0
Over 51 (0 units) -$0
Game 10: Houston @ Tennessee +6
I wonder how many people are going to be teasing Houston to PK. Spoiler alert, I probably will. The Texans are probably not as good as their 10-1 record would indicate because of the soft AFC. However, they've proven that they could be a solid team for years to come (possibly more on that in a column this weekend). The Titans may be down because they're out of playoff contention. Houston for 1.7.
Houston +6 (1.7 units) +$170
Under 47.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 11: Tampa Bay @ Denver -7.5
The Bucs are a quality team, and my pick to get the 6th playoff spot in th NFC. I think that Josh Freeman can become an Alex Smith like game manager type of QB. I'm fading the Broncos, everyone has been loving them all year with Peyton, but you're not elite without a real running game. TB for 1.7.
Tampa Bay +7.5 (1.7 units) -$187
Under 50 (0 units) -$0
Game 12: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore -7.5
It's the return of the Pittsburgh fumbling circus, with fossilized ring leader Charlie Batch! However, they're playing the overrated Ravens. I don't think the Steelers can replicate their 8 fumble performance, while most people seem to have forgotten the Ravens' near losses to teams like KC. Pitt for 2.2. I'm putting a unit on the over, as I think the Pittsburgh offense will step up.
Pittsburgh +7.5 (2.2 units) +$220
Over 36.5 (1 unit) +$100
Game 13: Cleveland @ Oakland +2.5
The Browns are almost a 3 point favorite traveling to the west coast. I guess that tells you just how awful the Raiders are. Why on earth did I start Carson Palmer last week? The Brownies are starting to play respectable football, and Trent Richardson may be their franchise player of the future. However, I'm not comfortable laying units on a 3-8 team that's a solid road favorite.
Cleveland -2.5 (0 units) +$0
Under 38.5 (0 units) +$0
Game 14: Cincinnati @ San Diego +1
The Bengals are quite impressive, and they're my pick to get the 6th and final AFC playoff spot. Andy Dalton is another guy who has the potential to be a solid game manager over the next fee years. The Chargers are dysfunctional and cursed by the Norv Turner factor. I'll lay a unit on Cincy.
Cincinnati -1 (1 unit) +$100
Under 46 (0 units) +$0
Game 15: Philadelphia @ Dallas -10.5
OK, I'm about to hop on a plane and need to get this pick in. Long story short, I have no read here.
Philadelphia +10.5 (0 units) +$0
Over 48 (0 units) +$0
Game 16: New York Giants @ Washington +3
Props/Teasers/Pleasers:
Teaser: Jacksonville +12, Houston PK (2 units) -$220
NFL Picks Week 13: -$64
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