College Football Week 11 Wrap-Up

I've got a few posts planned this week- bowl projections, playoff probabilities, national champion probabilities and so forth. It was overall a pretty quiet week with all of the committee's top 10 teams winning, but there's a decent amount of movement in my top 25.

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. Michigan
5. Oklahoma

Georgia and Oklahoma swap places as the Bulldogs had a convincing win over Auburn while Oklahoma struggled with Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are a solid team but not one Oklahoma should be going toe to toe with at home.

6. Notre Dame
7. Ohio State
8. West Virginia
9. Mississippi State
10. LSU

West Virginia vaults into my top 10 for the first time all year. With them rising and Oklahoma falling this week, the Mountaineers' chances of winning the Big 12 have increased quite a bit. However, they'd still have to win 3 tough games (at Oklahoma State, vs. Oklahoma, Big 12 title game) in a row to win the conference, not withstanding various tiebreaker scenarios.

11. UCF
12. Washington
13. Penn State
14. Texas
15. Iowa State

I've had Washington favored in the Apple Cup all year, but now for the first time I have the game as essentially a toss-up (I give Washington a 50.3% chance of winning). Thus, in my bowl predictions that I'll post in a few days, I have Washington in the Rose Bowl. This grouping is full of potential NY6 teams- Penn State and Texas could both get in even without a conference title.

16. Missouri
17. Fresno State
18. Boston College
19. Iowa
20. Utah

Fresno State lost a tough one on the blue turf last week and fell out of the AP top 25, and presumably will fall out of the playoff rankings as well. Missouri continues to be one of the most underrated teams in the country and is really two plays away from being 8-2 and in the top 10.

21. Utah State
22. Washington State
23. Pittsburgh
24. Auburn
25. Michigan State

A few new faces in the back end of the top 25- Utah State makes their first appearance of the year, as does Washington State and Pittsburgh. Utah State could be next in line for the New Years' Six bid if they win out and UCF falls to Cincinnati. Pitt has turned things around massively from the dumpster fire at the beginning of the season and has roughly a 10% chance of beating Clemson if they make the ACC title game.

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