College Football Week 5 Betting Preview
Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +3.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
2018 Season: 16-12, +3.8 units
Syracuse @ Clemson
Clemson is a legitimate national title contender, but they are a definite tier below Alabama, perhaps two. Syracuse is off to a hot start, as they're 4-0 with the big win over Florida State and a solid win over Western Michigan as well. I now project the Orange for 8.0 wins and they're up to #40, creeping towards the top 25. I only have Clemson as a 16 point favorite here, so I'm picking Syracuse.
Pick: Syracuse +25.5
Michigan @ Northwestern
I was very bullish on Northwestern and very bearish on Michigan in the preseason, although neither of those predictions look great now with the Wildcats at 1-2 and Michigan looking dominant since the Notre Dame game. However, I think this line is way off- Northwestern has the win over a good Purdue team and their two losses were very close. They're a 6-6 type team, and I project them for 6.1 wins. Michigan is a solid top 25 team, but this line should be about Michigan -6, not Michigan -14.5.
Pick: Northwestern +14.5
Iowa State @ TCU
There's a big grouping of Big 12 teams in the middle of the pack of the conference. Oklahoma looks like the front-runner, Texas is my #2 and Kansas is last. Between those teams, there's not a lot of separation. Iowa State had the bad luck of starting the season against a borderline top 25 team in Iowa and a national title contender in Oklahoma, but were competitive in both. I have this line at TCU -3.5, the Cylcones are just 1-2 cause they've played an insane schedule so far.
Pick: Iowa State +10.5
Boise State @ Wyoming
Boise State was the consensus pick to win the MW Mountain division in the preseason, but I went against the grain and picked Wyoming who I had just a hair ahead of the Broncos in my preseason rankings. It's been a rough start to the season for the 2-2 Cowboys, as they needed a last minute touchdown to beat Wofford last week. However, Boise State may not be the offensive machine we thought after getting shut down by Oklahoma State- my model has this line at Boise State -8.5.
Pick: Wyoming +17
West Virginia @ Texas Tech
I am still much lower on West Virginia than pretty much anyone else nationally- they did face their biggest test of the season thus far last week against Kansas State, but I think that win might have been more to do with Kansas State having a disappointing season. Texas Tech vaulted into my top 25 this past week with a dominating performance against Oklahoma State, and I think that the Red Raiders should be favored by 4.5 here so they're the pick.
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5
Purdue @ Nebraska
This is the most ridiculous line I've seen all season. Purdue is a solid team, although they're 1-3 they could easily be 4-0 as their 3 losses are by a combined 8 points. Nebraska, on the other hand, is terrible. I have already picked against the Cornhuskers multiple times this season and was all over under 6.5 wins in the preseason. People don't realize how little talent Scott Frost has to work with in Lincoln and this season could get really ugly for them: a 2-10 or 3-9 type season. I have Purdue by 17.5 here, they're the slam dunk pick.
Pick: Purdue -3.5
Arkansas State @ Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is a solid G5 team that should easily go bowling this year, I project them for 8.5 wins. Arkansas State is one of the preseason Sun Belt favorites, and did will in their non-con going 3-1 with the only loss to Alabama. These teams are similar enough that Arkansas State should not be a road favorite, so I'm on the Eagles for their second game in a row, I have this line at Georgia Southern -5.
Pick: Georgia Southern +3
Old Dominion @ East Carolina
Old Dominion got the biggest win in program history last week when they knocked off Virginia Tech at home. However, the Monarchs lost their first 3 games including big losses to FIU and Liberty. East Carolina has also had an up and down season, they were pegged as one of the worst teams in FBS and then lost to NC A&T, but had a win over an ACC team of their own against North Carolina. I think that East Carolina's win is more a function of North Carolina's complete ineptitude, I have this line at Old Dominion -2.5 so I'm on the Monarchs.
Pick: Old Dominion +7
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +3.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
2018 Season: 16-12, +3.8 units
Syracuse @ Clemson
Clemson is a legitimate national title contender, but they are a definite tier below Alabama, perhaps two. Syracuse is off to a hot start, as they're 4-0 with the big win over Florida State and a solid win over Western Michigan as well. I now project the Orange for 8.0 wins and they're up to #40, creeping towards the top 25. I only have Clemson as a 16 point favorite here, so I'm picking Syracuse.
Pick: Syracuse +25.5
Michigan @ Northwestern
I was very bullish on Northwestern and very bearish on Michigan in the preseason, although neither of those predictions look great now with the Wildcats at 1-2 and Michigan looking dominant since the Notre Dame game. However, I think this line is way off- Northwestern has the win over a good Purdue team and their two losses were very close. They're a 6-6 type team, and I project them for 6.1 wins. Michigan is a solid top 25 team, but this line should be about Michigan -6, not Michigan -14.5.
Pick: Northwestern +14.5
Iowa State @ TCU
There's a big grouping of Big 12 teams in the middle of the pack of the conference. Oklahoma looks like the front-runner, Texas is my #2 and Kansas is last. Between those teams, there's not a lot of separation. Iowa State had the bad luck of starting the season against a borderline top 25 team in Iowa and a national title contender in Oklahoma, but were competitive in both. I have this line at TCU -3.5, the Cylcones are just 1-2 cause they've played an insane schedule so far.
Pick: Iowa State +10.5
Boise State @ Wyoming
Boise State was the consensus pick to win the MW Mountain division in the preseason, but I went against the grain and picked Wyoming who I had just a hair ahead of the Broncos in my preseason rankings. It's been a rough start to the season for the 2-2 Cowboys, as they needed a last minute touchdown to beat Wofford last week. However, Boise State may not be the offensive machine we thought after getting shut down by Oklahoma State- my model has this line at Boise State -8.5.
Pick: Wyoming +17
West Virginia @ Texas Tech
I am still much lower on West Virginia than pretty much anyone else nationally- they did face their biggest test of the season thus far last week against Kansas State, but I think that win might have been more to do with Kansas State having a disappointing season. Texas Tech vaulted into my top 25 this past week with a dominating performance against Oklahoma State, and I think that the Red Raiders should be favored by 4.5 here so they're the pick.
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5
Purdue @ Nebraska
This is the most ridiculous line I've seen all season. Purdue is a solid team, although they're 1-3 they could easily be 4-0 as their 3 losses are by a combined 8 points. Nebraska, on the other hand, is terrible. I have already picked against the Cornhuskers multiple times this season and was all over under 6.5 wins in the preseason. People don't realize how little talent Scott Frost has to work with in Lincoln and this season could get really ugly for them: a 2-10 or 3-9 type season. I have Purdue by 17.5 here, they're the slam dunk pick.
Pick: Purdue -3.5
Arkansas State @ Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is a solid G5 team that should easily go bowling this year, I project them for 8.5 wins. Arkansas State is one of the preseason Sun Belt favorites, and did will in their non-con going 3-1 with the only loss to Alabama. These teams are similar enough that Arkansas State should not be a road favorite, so I'm on the Eagles for their second game in a row, I have this line at Georgia Southern -5.
Pick: Georgia Southern +3
Old Dominion @ East Carolina
Old Dominion got the biggest win in program history last week when they knocked off Virginia Tech at home. However, the Monarchs lost their first 3 games including big losses to FIU and Liberty. East Carolina has also had an up and down season, they were pegged as one of the worst teams in FBS and then lost to NC A&T, but had a win over an ACC team of their own against North Carolina. I think that East Carolina's win is more a function of North Carolina's complete ineptitude, I have this line at Old Dominion -2.5 so I'm on the Monarchs.
Pick: Old Dominion +7
can you post your odds/juice per bet as well? thanks
ReplyDeleteI'm getting these from Pinnacle so most are -106, as that's their standard for college football. Some that are on key numbers are a little different, but I'll make a note of this in the future, thanks.
ReplyDelete