Friday, September 28, 2018

College Football Week 4 Wrap-Up

This weekend saw one of the biggest upsets in recent memory as Old Dominion knocked off Virginia Tech. Old Dominion wasn't even on my radar screen before the game, as they started off 0-3 and plummeted towards the bottom of my rankings. Oklahoma and Army went to overtime- I thought this was a really entertaining game, the triple option run well is really such a joy to watch as Army just marched down the field.

Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Georgia (+1)
3. Ohio State (+1)
4. Oklahoma (-2)
5. Clemson (+1)
Oklahoma falls a bit as a result of the close call with Army. They're still the dominant team in the Big 12 though and are a -150 favorite to win the Big 12. I imagine that the vast majority of rating systems agree with this top 5 and I'm hearing a decent amount of buzz of them being the only teams that can win the title. I would add Penn State to that group but I think the top 6 are a league above the rest.

6. Penn State (-1)
7. Wisconsin (+1)
8. Washington (-1)
9. Auburn (+1)
10. UCF (+1)
A pretty quiet week for teams 6-10, probably the result that most caught my eye here was Penn State's game against Illinois. While the final score of 63-24 looks fine for the Nittany Lions, they were trailing in the third quarter against a really bad Illinois team, they might have been looking ahead to this weekend's big clash with Ohio State.

11. Stanford (+2)
12. Texas (+4)
13. Notre Dame (+14)
14. Duke (+3)
15. LSU (+3)
Notre Dame impressed me a lot this week- the Fighting Irish had completely fallen out of my top 25 after two lackluster one-possession wins against Ball State and Vanderbilt. However, Brian Kelly finally benched Brandon Wimbush and the Irish torched the Wake Forest defense for 56 points. I now have the Irish favored in every remaining game, although their next two against Stanford and Virginia Tech are the hardest ones left on the schedule.

16. Michigan (+7)
17. Mississippi State (-8)
18. Boston College (-6)
19. Miami (FL)
20. Texas A&M
Mississippi State and Boston College were two dark horse playoff contenders, and I had been hyping up the Golden Eagles in particular for quite some time. Both teams lost big this weekend though, with Mississippi State getting smoked by Kentucky and Boston College losing to Purdue. Kentucky and Purdue are both solid teams that are in the top 25 or close to it, so the losses aren't as bad as they appear on the surface.

21. NC State (+3)
22. Purdue (+16)
23. Michigan State (+3)
24. Missouri (-3)
25. Texas Tech (+24)
I'm probably the only person out there who has Purdue in their top 25, and I'll admit that I was surprised when I saw them there. The Boilermakers, despite being 1-3, have 3 close losses that all could've easily gone the other way. Missouri and Northwestern are solid teams, and although the loss to Eastern Michigan is puzzling I think that Jeff Brohm's team can claw their way back to a bowl.

Next Ten: South Carolina, Iowa, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Fresno State, Memphis, Appalachian State, Iowa State, West Virginia, TCU

Picks Recap

2018 Season: 16-12, +2.8 units

My model had another solid week, going 4-2. I won big betting against Rutgers again with Buffalo -6.5, FIU scored some garbage time points to cover +26.5, Louisiana Tech hung with LSU late to cover +20 and Texas won outright against TCU. My other two picks didn't go so well, as I tried to fade overrated top 25 teams in West Virginia and Notre Dame, but both had big offensive performances to cover.

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