College Football Week 6 Wrap-Up
This was the one Saturday all season where I barely watched any football- I was at an event all weekend with pretty bad service so I mainly only saw highlights throughout the week. I caught the end of Texas/Oklahoma and Texas A&M/Kentucky but that was about it. Overall, I think it was an OK week to miss- the Red River Shootout certainly delivered but the Saturdays will only get more exciting from here as we get deeper into conference play.
1. Alabama (68.6%)
2. Clemson (41.1%)
3. Georgia (32.8%)
4. Ohio State (45.7%)
5. Oklahoma (32.3%)
Clemson makes a big move up to #2 after thrashing a decent Wake Forest team on the road. Combined with other ACC contenders struggling, and Clemson's win out probability is up 18 percentage points this week. Oklahoma only falls a little bit for the last second loss to Texas, and they still have almost a 1 in 3 chance of reaching the Big 12 title game at 11-1.
6. Penn State (23.9%)
7. Notre Dame (29.2%)
8. Wisconsin (6.2%)
9. Washington (27.4%)
10. UCF (40.5%)
Notre Dame's win out probability nearly tripled as the Irish handily beat Virginia Tech in what was the biggest test left on their schedule. I have the Irish favored by at least a touchdown in every remaining game, they're 7 point favorites at Northwestern, 8.5 point favorites vs. Syracuse and 7.5 point favorites at USC. A 12-0 Notre Dame team is a lock for the playoff, but it'll be interesting to see how the committee handles a 11-1 Notre Dame, I think they'd have a decent shot.
11. Texas (15.3%)
12. Michigan (1.9%)
13. Auburn (0.7%)
14. Mississippi State (1.2%)
15. LSU (0.8%)
The middle of the Big 12 is so strong that Texas is likely to drop another game even though they'll be favored the rest of the way out. However, if they do manage to run the table and then beat Oklahoma or West Virginia in the Big 12 title game, they'll almost certainly be in. A lot of other rating systems seem to be putting Michigan in the top 10 but I'm not quite there yet- their next 3 games will tell a lot though. If any team can get in the playoff with two losses, it might be the Wolverines who figure to play four legitimate playoff contenders in the regular season.
16. NC State (4.1%)
17. Miami (FL) (4.0%)
18. Boston College (2.1%)
19. Utah (8.0%)
20. Texas A&M (2.0%)
NC State has established themselves as the challenger to Clemson in the ACC Atlantic, and next week's showdown in Clemson is shaping up to be a division championship game. Boston College is still a solid team though and can't be ruled out to pull some upsets over teams like Miami. The Hurricanes are probably not as likely to win the Coastal as people think though- Virginia Tech still does not have a loss in conference and Virginia and Pitt are showing signs of life.
21. Fresno State (22.4%)
22. Florida (2.8%)
23. Missouri (0.6%)
24. Iowa State (5.8%)
25. Iowa (2.0%)
Fresno State is the best team in America that no one is talking about. They lost a nailbiter at Minnesota but have dominated in their other games, including wins over UCLA and a solid Toledo team. They'll cruise until November matchups with Boise State and San Diego State. Iowa State is 2-3 against the toughest schedule in America right now and is well positioned to ruin someone's season, perhaps West Virginia's this week.
Next Ten: West Virginia, Appalachian State, Purdue, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Oregon, Duke, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Northwestern
Last week was a bloodbath. I gave up all of my gains on the year and then some with an 0-7 week. I managed to lose in all sorts of ways- Wisconsin looked like a sure bet to cover before Nebraska scored twice in garbage time, UMass was winning most of the game and imploded in the fourth quarter, San Jose State came all the way back against Colorado State and then choked. Not a week I'll forget any time soon.
Top 25
The number in parenthesis is the probability of winning out until the conference championship game.1. Alabama (68.6%)
2. Clemson (41.1%)
3. Georgia (32.8%)
4. Ohio State (45.7%)
5. Oklahoma (32.3%)
Clemson makes a big move up to #2 after thrashing a decent Wake Forest team on the road. Combined with other ACC contenders struggling, and Clemson's win out probability is up 18 percentage points this week. Oklahoma only falls a little bit for the last second loss to Texas, and they still have almost a 1 in 3 chance of reaching the Big 12 title game at 11-1.
6. Penn State (23.9%)
7. Notre Dame (29.2%)
8. Wisconsin (6.2%)
9. Washington (27.4%)
10. UCF (40.5%)
Notre Dame's win out probability nearly tripled as the Irish handily beat Virginia Tech in what was the biggest test left on their schedule. I have the Irish favored by at least a touchdown in every remaining game, they're 7 point favorites at Northwestern, 8.5 point favorites vs. Syracuse and 7.5 point favorites at USC. A 12-0 Notre Dame team is a lock for the playoff, but it'll be interesting to see how the committee handles a 11-1 Notre Dame, I think they'd have a decent shot.
11. Texas (15.3%)
12. Michigan (1.9%)
13. Auburn (0.7%)
14. Mississippi State (1.2%)
15. LSU (0.8%)
The middle of the Big 12 is so strong that Texas is likely to drop another game even though they'll be favored the rest of the way out. However, if they do manage to run the table and then beat Oklahoma or West Virginia in the Big 12 title game, they'll almost certainly be in. A lot of other rating systems seem to be putting Michigan in the top 10 but I'm not quite there yet- their next 3 games will tell a lot though. If any team can get in the playoff with two losses, it might be the Wolverines who figure to play four legitimate playoff contenders in the regular season.
16. NC State (4.1%)
17. Miami (FL) (4.0%)
18. Boston College (2.1%)
19. Utah (8.0%)
20. Texas A&M (2.0%)
NC State has established themselves as the challenger to Clemson in the ACC Atlantic, and next week's showdown in Clemson is shaping up to be a division championship game. Boston College is still a solid team though and can't be ruled out to pull some upsets over teams like Miami. The Hurricanes are probably not as likely to win the Coastal as people think though- Virginia Tech still does not have a loss in conference and Virginia and Pitt are showing signs of life.
21. Fresno State (22.4%)
22. Florida (2.8%)
23. Missouri (0.6%)
24. Iowa State (5.8%)
25. Iowa (2.0%)
Fresno State is the best team in America that no one is talking about. They lost a nailbiter at Minnesota but have dominated in their other games, including wins over UCLA and a solid Toledo team. They'll cruise until November matchups with Boise State and San Diego State. Iowa State is 2-3 against the toughest schedule in America right now and is well positioned to ruin someone's season, perhaps West Virginia's this week.
Next Ten: West Virginia, Appalachian State, Purdue, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Oregon, Duke, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Northwestern
Picks Recap
2018 Season: 22-21 -0.53 unitsLast week was a bloodbath. I gave up all of my gains on the year and then some with an 0-7 week. I managed to lose in all sorts of ways- Wisconsin looked like a sure bet to cover before Nebraska scored twice in garbage time, UMass was winning most of the game and imploded in the fourth quarter, San Jose State came all the way back against Colorado State and then choked. Not a week I'll forget any time soon.
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