Week 0: 1-0, +1 unit
Week 1: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 2: 3-4, -1.4 units
Week 3: 5-2, +2.8 units
Week 4: 4-2, +1.8 units
Week 5: 6-2, +4.08 units
2018 Season: 22-14, +6.88 units
Note: All picks are 1 unit
Nebraska @ Wisconsin
Once again, I'm picking against Nebraska. In the preseason, I said that this was the least talented Nebraska team in recent memory, and that they had almost no shot at a bowl. The Cornhuskers have been even worse than I realized and are barrelling towards a 2-10 season. I still think that Wisconsin is a fringe top 10 type team, and my model has the Badgers as 29 point favorites here, so they're the pick.
Pick: Wisconsin -18.5 -105
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech
I think that Virginia Tech is taking a bigger penalty for their loss to Old Dominion than they deserve. Sure, Florida State is nowhere near as good as we thought in week 1, but Duke is quite a solid team this year and the Hokies just dismantled them in Durham. Lane Stadium at night is always a tough environment but I don't think that Notre Dame should be getting 6.5 points here. This is my #10 team on the road against my #15 team, so I have this line set as a pick'em.
Pick: Virginia Tech +6.5 -105
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh
On Sunday afternoon, I go to Pinnacle and CRIS to look at all of the lines for the upcoming week to see what plays jump out to me before I write this post up in mid-week. This game wasn't even on my radar screen on Sunday because the number opened at Syracuse -6.5, which I thought was low but reasonable compared to my number of Syracuse -9. For some reason this has been bet down significantly to Syracuse -3.5 though- perhaps people are pricing in a hangover factor from the Clemson game. Syracuse will be hungry to break the top 25 for the first time in over a decade though.
Pick: Syracuse -3.5 -110
Old Dominion @ Florida Atlantic
This is not the Florida Atlantic of last year, as they've disappointed in pretty much every game so far except UCF. After starting out around #40 in my preseason rankings, they've slipped all the way down to #73 now. I was on Old Dominion last week and I am once again this week- the Monarchs should not be two touchdown underdogs against any C-USA team, save North Texas. My number here is Florida Atlantic -7.
Pick: Old Dominion +14 -103
ULM @ Mississippi
Ole Miss has also been a big disappointment this year. The win over Texas Tech was nice, but no FBS team should be allowing 41 points to Southern Illinois. Alabama and LSU predictably tore them to shreds as well. I wouldn't take Ole Miss -22.5 against any FBS team except for the UTEPs and Texas States of the world- ULM is a middle of the road Sun Belt team that should be able to cover this. My number is Ole Miss -13.5.
Pick: ULM +22.5 -106
USF @ Massachusetts
USF is getting a decent bit of hype now just because they're one of the last fourteen undefeated teams, but they are not that good. Their wins are over FCS Elon, Georgia Tech (#56 in my model), a nailbiter over Illinois (#115) and East Carolina (#114). UMass is not as good as I thought they were in the preseason, but they're a decent bit better Illinois and East Carolina and they should not be getting 2 touchdowns at home. I have the line here at USF -6.
Pick: Massachusetts +14.5 -110
Colorado State @ San Jose State
San Jose State is unlucky to still be winless. The Spartans went to 5OT with Hawaii last week and nearly beat UC Davis. They're one of the worst fifteen or so FBS teams but Colorado State is a little worse in my eyes. They got smacked by FCS Illinois State in their last game, and are really only road favorites here by name recognition. I have this line at San Jose State -5.5 so the Spartans are the obvious play here.
Pick: San Jose State +2.5 -102