College Football Week 8 Wrap-Up

Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. LSU

Alabama remains far ahead of the rest of the pack, but Clemson and Oklahoma are separating from the teams below. Alabama would be about a 6 point favorite on a neutral field against Clemson, 9 points again Oklahoma and 12-14 points against Georgia down through Penn State. Alabama's national title odds have thus actually dropped a hair in the last two weeks in my mind as Clemson and Oklahoma look like more realistic challengers.

6. Michigan
7. Ohio State
8. Purdue
9. Penn State
10. Notre Dame

I have been high on Purdue all season- I had them at #19 last week when they were in no one's top 25, and I was all over them in the preseason as well. Purdue being so high here is largely a function of my ratings being margin of victory based- so the Boilermakers fell relatively little for their early losses and jumped a lot for their big win over Ohio State.

11. Washington
12. UCF
13. Texas
14. Wisconsin
15. Iowa

Washington's position in the Pac-12 looks a lot stronger than it did a week ago as they now control their own destiny after Oregon's loss to Washington State. They'll be favored in the Apple Cup, even though it's in Pullman. UCF's rating has remained remarkably static all year and they've hovered in the 10-12 range for most of it. Wisconsin and Iowa are going toe-to-toe in what I think is the most intriguing division race in the country, the Big Ten West, where both Purdue and Northwestern are strong contenders as well.

16. Utah
17. Missouri
18. Fresno State
19. Iowa State
20. Texas A&M

Utah's definitely the best team in the Pac-12 South but it'll be interesting to see if they can overcome their 0-2 start in conference play and tough cross-division games to win the division. Missouri is a touchdown favorite over Kentucky this week, much to the public's surprise, but the Tigers destroyed a decent Memphis team last week.

21. Mississippi State
22. Boston College
23. Auburn
24. Florida
25. Miami (FL)

Florida is quite a bit lower here than in other predictive systems- they're 12th in Sagarin and 14th in S&P+. Granted, the gap between #13 Texas and #24 Florida is really small here- Texas would only be a 3 point favorite over Florida on a neutral field- but I think it's mainly because of their relatively small margin of victory in their last few wins, but they'll shoot up if they beat Georgia.

Win Out Probabilities

These are probabilities of a team winning out until, but not including, their conference championship game. Listed with each team is their toughest remaining game and their probability of winning it. Only teams with at least a 10% chance of winning out are listed.

1. Alabama 69.4% (Week 10 at LSU 78.3%)
2. UCF 56.9% (Week 10 vs. Temple 82.8%)
3. Clemson 56.7% (Week 11 at Boston College 79.9%)
4. Appalachian State 50.2% (Week 9 at Georgia Southern 70.4%)
5. Oklahoma 47.8% (Week 10 at Texas Tech 74.3%)
6. Fresno State 43.0% (Week 11 at Boise State 56.5%)
7. Washington 41.3% (Week 13 at Washington State 66.0%)
8. Army 41.3% (Week 9 at Eastern Michigan 64.6%)
9. Georgia 35.8% (Week 10 at Kentucky 71.3%)
10. Notre Dame 30.5% (Week 13 at USC 72.5%)
11. Utah State 30.1% (Week 13 at Boise State 42.2%)
12. Ohio State 28.2% (Week 13 vs. Michigan 56.5%)
13. Michigan 24.7% (Week 13 at Ohio State 43.5%)
14. Purdue 22.8% (Week 9 at Michigan State 63.2%)
15. Utah 19.2% (Week 10 at Arizona State 60.3%)
16. Missouri 18.6% (Week 10 at Florida 45.1%)
17. NC State 16.3% (Week 9 at Syracuse 48.4%)
18. Penn State 15.4% (Week 10 at Michigan 36.0%)
19. Texas 14.2% (Week 11 at Texas Tech 48.8%)
20. Iowa State 12.4% (Week 12 at Texas 34.8%)
21. Houston 12.3% (Week 13 at Memphis 46.7%)
22. LSU 11.9% (Week 10 vs. Alabama 21.7%)


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