Bracketology 2/15/17
The most important game of the night was in the ACC, where Clemson picked up their 4th ACC win over Wake Forest. Clemson will be an interesting team down the stretch- I think there's a legitimate chance they'll be the first team with a 7-11 conference record to make the tourney (since the field expanded to 68, which is as far back as my data goes), should they go 3-2 to close out ACC play. No team with a 7-11 conference record has even been in serious at-large consideration. For reference, here's the teams that made the field with a losing conference record:
2015 Oklahoma State (9 seed, #1 rated conference in Kenpom)
2015 Texas (11 seed, #1 conference)
2014 Oklahoma State (9 seed, #1 conference)
2013 Illinois (7 seed, #1 conference)
2013 Minnesota (11 seed, #1 conference)
2012 Connecticut (9 seed, #3 conference)
There's enough precedent of 8-10 teams who were reasonably safe (teams that end up with 9 seeds or better are generally not in any real danger of missing the tournament on Selection Sunday) that makes me think it's only a matter of time until a team with a 7-11 conference record gets in. This year's Big 12 is the strongest conference from 2012 onwards, and I think Oklahoma State or Kansas State could get a bid with a 7-11 mark in conference and a respectable Big 12 tourney showing. Clemson could also be in the mix at 7-11.
Looking ahead to Wednesday's action, my eyes will be on the Big 12 as the aforementioned Oklahoma State and Kansas State squads take on TCU and Iowa State respectively. It's a big day in the Big East as well, as Seton Hall and Providence have games that fall in the Goldilocks zone of being winnable, yet impressive on the team sheet, when they take on Creighton and Xavier at home, respectively.
1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Oregon
3: Arizona, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia
4: Butler, Duke, Creighton, Purdue
5: UCLA, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Notre Dame
6: Wisconsin, Xavier, Maryland, South Carolina
7: SMU, St. Mary's, Minnesota, Northwestern
8: Virginia Tech, USC, Dayton, Oklahoma State
9: Michigan State, VCU, Kansas State, TCU
10: California, Iowa State, Wichita State, Miami (FL)
11: Arkansas, Michigan, (Syracuse/Tennessee), (Wake Forest/Illinois State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, UT-Arlington
13: Belmont, Nevada, Princeton, Bucknell
14: Valparaiso, Furman, Akron, Monmouth
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State
16: North Carolina Central, Weber State, (New Orleans/Texas Southern), (Mount Saint Mary's/UC Davis)
First Four Out: Clemson, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Marquette, Rhode Island, Indiana, Providence
Moving In: Nevada, UC Davis
Moving Out: Boise State, UC Irvine
Removed From Consideration: Richmond, Boise State
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
2015 Oklahoma State (9 seed, #1 rated conference in Kenpom)
2015 Texas (11 seed, #1 conference)
2014 Oklahoma State (9 seed, #1 conference)
2013 Illinois (7 seed, #1 conference)
2013 Minnesota (11 seed, #1 conference)
2012 Connecticut (9 seed, #3 conference)
There's enough precedent of 8-10 teams who were reasonably safe (teams that end up with 9 seeds or better are generally not in any real danger of missing the tournament on Selection Sunday) that makes me think it's only a matter of time until a team with a 7-11 conference record gets in. This year's Big 12 is the strongest conference from 2012 onwards, and I think Oklahoma State or Kansas State could get a bid with a 7-11 mark in conference and a respectable Big 12 tourney showing. Clemson could also be in the mix at 7-11.
Looking ahead to Wednesday's action, my eyes will be on the Big 12 as the aforementioned Oklahoma State and Kansas State squads take on TCU and Iowa State respectively. It's a big day in the Big East as well, as Seton Hall and Providence have games that fall in the Goldilocks zone of being winnable, yet impressive on the team sheet, when they take on Creighton and Xavier at home, respectively.
1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Oregon
3: Arizona, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia
4: Butler, Duke, Creighton, Purdue
5: UCLA, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Notre Dame
6: Wisconsin, Xavier, Maryland, South Carolina
7: SMU, St. Mary's, Minnesota, Northwestern
8: Virginia Tech, USC, Dayton, Oklahoma State
9: Michigan State, VCU, Kansas State, TCU
10: California, Iowa State, Wichita State, Miami (FL)
11: Arkansas, Michigan, (Syracuse/Tennessee), (Wake Forest/Illinois State)
12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, UT-Arlington
13: Belmont, Nevada, Princeton, Bucknell
14: Valparaiso, Furman, Akron, Monmouth
15: UNC Asheville, Cal State Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, North Dakota State
16: North Carolina Central, Weber State, (New Orleans/Texas Southern), (Mount Saint Mary's/UC Davis)
First Four Out: Clemson, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Georgia Tech
Next Four Out: Marquette, Rhode Island, Indiana, Providence
Moving In: Nevada, UC Davis
Moving Out: Boise State, UC Irvine
Removed From Consideration: Richmond, Boise State
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 10
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
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