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Well, in the unlikely event that there is an NCAA tournament, here's my projection for it. Stanford really hurt themselves with their loss to Cal, their SOR is almost unprecedentedly bad for an at-large team. Xavier made things really interesting with a loss to DePaul, they're my last team in. Also out west, Colorado continued a massive slide with a loss to Washington State. 1:  Kansas , Baylor,  Gonzaga ,  Dayton 2: San Diego State,  Villanova,  Creighton,  Florida State 3:  Michigan State , Maryland, Duke, Seton Hall 4: Louisville,  Kentucky ,  Oregon , Ohio State 5: Wisconsin, Butler, BYU, Auburn 6: West Virginia, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois 7: Penn State, Virginia, St. Mary's,   Houston 8: Oklahoma, Arizona, Rutgers, USC 9: Marquette, Colorado, LSU, Providence 10: Florida, Indiana,  East Tennessee State , Texas Tech 11: Wichita State,  Utah State , Arizona State, (Richmond/Cincinnati) 12: (Texa...

The last quiet bubble day of conference tournament week is done, with six more bids punched. Robert Morris moves into the field for St. Francis PA after their win in the NEC title game. I was supposed to be heading to Madison Square Garden for the Big East tournament tomorrow and likely up to Cambridge for the Ivy League tournament this weekend. I've cancelled my trip to New York, and the Ivy League tournament has been cancelled with Yale given the conference's berth in March Madness with their regular season title. 1:  Kansas , Baylor,  Gonzaga ,  Dayton 2: San Diego State,  Villanova,  Creighton,  Florida State 3:  Michigan State , Maryland, Duke, Seton Hall 4: Louisville,  Kentucky ,  Oregon , Ohio State 5: Wisconsin, Butler, BYU, Auburn 6: West Virginia, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois 7: Penn State, Virginia, St. Mary's,   Houston 8: Colorado, Oklahoma, Arizona, Rutgers 9: USC, Marquette, LSU, Providence 10: Flo...

East Tennessee State punched their bid last night, I think the Buccaneers could've had a good shot at making the field as an at-large, but now they won't have to wait. I also moved some teams around on the 13 through 16 lines after taking a look at those resumes more in depth, Bradley moves up to a 14 seed in place of Hofstra. 1:  Kansas , Baylor,  Gonzaga ,  Dayton 2: San Diego State,  Villanova,  Creighton,  Florida State 3:  Michigan State , Maryland, Duke, Seton Hall 4: Louisville,  Kentucky ,  Oregon , Ohio State 5: Wisconsin, Butler, BYU, Auburn 6: West Virginia, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois 7: Penn State, St. Mary's, Virginia,  Houston 8: Colorado, Oklahoma, Arizona, Rutgers 9: USC, Marquette, LSU, Providence 10: Florida,  East Tennessee State , Indiana, Texas Tech 11: Wichita State,  Utah State , Arizona State, (Xavier/Richmond) 12: (Stanford/Texas),  Stephen F. Austin, Yale,  Liberty ...

Three more bids were punched yesterday, as Liberty, Bradley and Winthrop locked up their spot in the NCAA tournament. My guess is that after more top seeds go down, Bradley will slide up to a 14 seed and Winthrop will move to a 15. Higher up in the field, Michigan State is knocking on the door of the 2 line after their win over Ohio State, and Illinois is up to the 6 line. The biggest game of tomorrow night is the Southern Conference championship between Wofford and East Tennessee State. I feel decent that the Buccaneers would get an at-large even with a loss, their SOR and NET are pretty solid. Thus, a Wofford win would take another bid from the bubble. 1:  Kansas , Baylor,  Gonzaga ,  Dayton 2: San Diego State,  Villanova,  Creighton,  Florida State 3: Michigan State , Maryland, Duke, Seton Hall 4: Louisville,  Kentucky ,  Oregon , BYU 5: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Butler, Auburn 6: West Virginia, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa 7: Penn...

A crazy day leads to massive changes throughout the seed list. At the top, I've moved Dayton to a #1 seed for the first time all year, replacing San Diego State after the Aztecs' loss to Utah State. That locked up a bid for the Aggies, who were probably out with a loss. At the bubble, I've moved Stanford in, as well as Utah State. They're replacing Northern Iowa and Purdue, after the Boilers' loss to Rutgers. I feel decent about the bubble right now, anyone outside the first four out is going to need quite a conference tournament run to make the field. 1:  Kansas , Baylor,  Gonzaga ,  Dayton 2: San Diego State,  Villanova, Creighton,  Florida State 3: Duke, Michigan State , Maryland, Seton Hall 4: Louisville,  Kentucky ,  Oregon , Ohio State 5: BYU, Wisconsin, Butler, Auburn 6: Michigan, West Virginia, Iowa, Penn State 7: Virginia, Illinois, Houston , St. Mary's 8: Colorado, Oklahoma, Arizona, Rutgers 9: USC, Marquette, LSU, Providence...

The biggest game of the day on Friday was Northern Iowa's loss to Drake in the Arch Madness quarterfinals. I have kept the Panthers as the last team in the field for now, but it's going to be a long wait for them until Selection Sunday. Most of their resume comparisons haven't made the tournament, although their NET remains solid. A massive day awaits today, with nearly every bubble team in action. Updates will be daily from now until Selection Sunday. 1:  Kansas , Baylor,  Gonzaga ,  San Diego State 2:  Dayton ,  Florida State, Maryland, Seton Hall 3: Villanova, Creighton, Duke, Michigan State 4: Louisville,  Kentucky ,  Oregon , Ohio State 5: BYU, Butler, Penn State, Iowa 6: Wisconsin, Michigan, Auburn, Colorado 7: West Virginia, Houston, Illinois, Virginia 8: St. Mary's, Arizona, Marquette, Oklahoma 9: Texas Tech, Rutgers, USC, Florida 10: Xavier, LSU,  East Tennessee State , Providence 11: Indiana, Wichita State, Texas,...

For the first time in a while, we had a day with a lot of bubble teams losing on Thursday. Arizona State lost at home to Washington, Stanford lost at Oregon State and Wichita State lost at Memphis. I debated keeping Stanford in the field due to their high NET rating, but the pure wins and losses of their resume is a decent bit behind everyone else on the cutline. Arizona State is now in a bit of a tricky position and better beat Washington State on Saturday. LSU is also starting to make things interesting, as they're 3-6 in their last 9. 1:  Kansas , Baylor,  Gonzaga ,  San Diego State 2:  Dayton ,  Florida State, Maryland, Seton Hall 3: Villanova, Creighton, Duke, Michigan State 4: Louisville,  Kentucky ,  Oregon , Ohio State 5: BYU, Butler, Penn State, Iowa 6: Wisconsin, Michigan, Auburn, Colorado 7: West Virginia, Houston, Illinois, Virginia 8: St. Mary's, Arizona, Marquette, Oklahoma 9: Texas Tech, Rutgers, USC, Florida 10: Xavier, ...

Purdue moves back into the field after a big win at Iowa takes the Boilermakers to 16-14 overall. After a four game skid in mid-February, they will probably be in with two more wins- one against Rutgers on Saturday, and one in the Big Ten Tournament. The other big bubble winner is Texas, who beat Oklahoma at the buzzer to move up out of the First Four. The Longhorns have picked up 3 quad 1 wins in their last 3 games, and have no bad losses. At the top, the 2 through 4 lines remain quite fluid. I likely would've moved Kentucky to the 2 line if they had beaten Tennessee at home, but instead Maryland holds onto the last spot. Michigan State is making a late charge and could move up to the 2 line if they win the Big Ten Tournament. 1:  Kansas , Baylor,  Gonzaga ,  San Diego State 2:  Dayton , Seton Hall, Florida State, Maryland 3: Creighton,  Kentucky , Duke, Michigan State 4: Villanova, Louisville, Oregon , Auburn 5: Ohio State, BYU, Butler, Penn State...

A massive weekend throughout the bracket, and for once many bubble teams actually won. Providence and Texas picked up Q1-A road wins and vaulted into the field, at the expense of Richmond and Cincinnati. Rhode Island nearly fell out as well after their home loss to Saint Louis, and it looks like the A-10 could be a one bid league. More big bubble opportunities await in the next few days. NC State looks for a sweep over Duke, Rutgers can shore up a bid by beating Maryland, and Texas looks for another big win at Oklahoma. My next update will come Wednesday morning. 1:  Kansas , Baylor,  Gonzaga ,  San Diego State 2:  Dayton ,  Maryland , Seton Hall, Florida State 3: Creighton, Kentucky , Duke, Villanova 4: Louisville, Michigan State,  Oregon , Auburn 5: Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, BYU 6: Butler, Wisconsin, Michigan, Houston 7: Colorado, West Virginia, Marquette, Illinois 8: St. Mary's, Arizona, Virginia, Oklahoma 9: LSU, Xavier, Texas ...