Betzig Sports

This is my final bracketology for 2017. I moved some teams around today- Michigan moved up to a 6 with their win over Wisconsin, among others. I am pretty confident with the at-large selections I've made, but the committee could throw a total curveball like they did last year with Tulsa. 1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke 2: Kentucky, Gonzaga, Arizona, Louisville 3: Florida State, Baylor, Oregon, Florida 4: UCLA, Butler, Notre Dame, West Virginia 5: Virginia, Purdue, Iowa State, SMU 6: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan 7: Creighton, St. Mary's, Maryland, Arkansas 8: Dayton, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, VCU 9: Wichita State, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Oklahoma State 10: Seton Hall, Michigan State, Northwestern, Xavier 11: Marquette, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Providence, Kansas State, USC 12: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington, Vermont 13: Princeton, East Tennessee State, New Mexico State, Bucknell 14: Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Northern Ke...

This is only my morning update- I'll have another final update after all of the championship games are done today. I ran my model this morning and it produced some interesting results, such as Duke on the 1-line. Also, Rhode Island is in for Illinois State. I might swap in Syracuse for Rhode Island if the Rams lose to VCU today. 1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke 2: Kentucky, Gonzaga , Arizona , Louisville 3: Florida State, Oregon, Baylor, UCLA 4: Florida, Butler, Notre Dame, West Virginia 5: Virginia, Purdue, Iowa State, Cincinnati 6: Minnesota, SMU, Wisconsin, Creighton 7: St. Mary's, Michigan, Maryland, Dayton 8: Arkansas, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Wichita State 9: South Carolina, VCU , Vanderbilt, Oklahoma State 10: Seton Hall, Xavier, Michigan State, Northwestern 11: Marquette, Wake Forest, (Providence /USC), (Kansas State/Rhode Island) 12: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, UNC Wilmington , Vermont 13: Princeton, East Tennessee State , New Mexico State, ...

Fringe bubble teams dropped like flies today as Georgia, Indiana, TCU, California and Houston all lost must-win games and I think all five are totally out of consideration for an at-large. In my mind, the bubble is really down to just 6 teams- Kansas State, Middle Tennessee, USC, Illinois State, Rhode Island and Syracuse. Right now, there's 4 spots for those 6 teams but that could shrink in the case of bid stealers, and there's plenty of potential bid thieves still alive. I'm pretty shaky on some areas of my seed list- the 3 and 4 lines are one area, as are the 9 and 10 lines. I'm going to run my model tomorrow afternoon to help sort that out. 1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky 2: Gonzaga , Oregon , Louisville, Florida State 3: Duke, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA 4: Notre Dame, West Virginia , Virginia, Florida 5: Purdue, Butler, Cincinnati, Iowa State 6: Creighton, Minnesota, SMU, St. Mary's 7: Wisconsin , Michigan, Miami (FL), Maryland 8: Arkansas, ...

I'm moving Iowa out of the field after their loss to Indiana, and I considered denoting them as a long shot as well. Teams with RPIs in the high 70s don't get simply don't get bids, and Iowa doesn't have the wins Syracuse does to counteract the unwieldy RPI. USC also hurt themselves today- I think they're probably still in but my guess is they'll be in a First Four game. Today's bubble winners include Michigan State and Northwestern, who took care of business in the Big Ten Tournament and earned locks for it, as well as California and Indiana who got necessary wins. However, both teams still need at least one more win to have a serious shot. However, the biggest bubble winners of the day were in the Big 12 where Kansas State vaulted into the field with a win over Baylor, and TCU dealt a blow to Kansas' #1 overall seed hopes as well. I think Kansas State is probably in even if they lose to West Virginia, although it's not a sure thing. TCU definite...

I'm making a decision that I think most bracketologists will disagree with by dropping Syracuse out of the field. Their RPI is 84 and the worst RPI to get an at-large bid is 68. If other bubble teams lose, there's enough other good stuff on their resume that they still have a shot, but I think it's dependent on other bubble teams losing. I think Wake Forest is in, and I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't make it. Power conference teams with top-40 RPIs don't miss the tournament and their win over Louisville is as good as any other bubble team win. Lots more bubble teams in action today. Illinois and Kansas State, among others, face must wins. 1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky 2: Baylor, Gonzaga , Louisville, Florida State 3: Oregon, UCLA, Florida, Butler 4: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue 5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota 6: SMU, Maryland, Iowa State, St. Mary's 7: Dayton , Creighton, Miami (FL), Wisconsin 8: V...

Most bubble teams begin their conference tournaments today, so the bubble will be more interesting today after a few nights of stagnation. Clemson, USC, Xavier and Ohio State face must wins. Not much changed as a result of yesterday's games- Gonzaga moved up the 2-line and St. Mary's moved down the 6-line. 1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky 2: Baylor, Gonzaga , Louisville, Florida State 3: Oregon, UCLA, Florida, Butler 4: Duke, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue 5: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota 6: SMU, Maryland, Iowa State, St. Mary's 7: Dayton , Creighton, Wisconsin, South Carolina 8: Miami (FL), Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Wichita State 9: Oklahoma State, Michigan, VCU, Marquette 10: Michigan State, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Wake Forest 11: Providence, Xavier, (USC/Vanderbilt), (Syracuse/Illinois State) 12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington , Nevada, UT-Arlington 13: Vermont, Princeton, East Tennessee State , Bucknell 14: Akron, Winthrop...