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I moved North Carolina up to a 2 seed even though they lost, as I dropped Auburn for their loss over Arkansas. I felt like the top 9 teams were a definite tier above the rest of the 3 seeds, so the Heels move up. Elsewhere, my jaw dropped when I saw the Rhode Island score- after getting waxed by 30 at home by St. Joe's the Rams fall quite a bit. They have the potential to fall quite a bit further as they have a deceptively tricky game at Davidson to close the regular season followed by the A-10 tournament. The game of the night was also in the A-10 as St. Bonaventure knocked off Davidson in a 3OT thriller to stay in the field. Tonight, Syracuse has a tough, but low-upside game at Boston College, and LSU faces the same situation at South Carolina. 1: Virginia, Xavier , Villanova, Kansas 2: Duke, Purdue, Michigan State , North Carolina 3: Auburn , Cincinnati , Tennessee, Wichita State 4: West Virginia, Clemson, Texas Tech, Arizona 5: Ohio State, Gonzaga , Michigan, Kentucky ...

Texas Tech's slide continues and they're almost out of the protected seed lines, while Virginia Tech locked up their bid with a win over Duke. Huge night in the SEC tonight, Mississippi State has a chance for a resume-defining win against Tennessee. I'm going to the Big Ten Tournament later this week, so I might not have daily updates later in the week. Looking forward to it- it'll be my first time at Madison Square Garden, and I was only able to go to one MSU game during the regular season this year. 1: Virginia, Xavier , Villanova, Kansas 2: Duke, Auburn , Purdue, Michigan State 3: North Carolina, Cincinnati , Tennessee, Wichita State 4: West Virginia, Clemson, Texas Tech, Arizona 5: Ohio State, Gonzaga , Rhode Island, Michigan 6: Kentucky, Nevada , Creighton, Houston 7: Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri, Virginia Tech 8: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Florida State, TCU 9: Florida, Seton Hall, Kansas State, Arizona State 10: St. Mary's, North Carolina State...

My Last night was relatively quiet, Nebraska stays alive with a win over Penn State and UCLA took a tumble by losing at Colorado. NC State is looking safer after their win over Florida State, and is now up to a 10. Tonight, Texas Tech looks to end their slide against West Virginia and Texas looks for a resume-defining win against Kansas. One note about the bracket- because all of my 7 seeds are from the SEC, there's a possible SEC matchup between Auburn and Texas A&M in the round of 32, this is unavoidable without dropping one of the 7 seeds down to the 8 line.  1: Virginia, Xavier , Villanova, Kansas 2: Duke, Auburn , Purdue, Michigan State 3: North Carolina, Cincinnati , Tennessee, Texas Tech 4: Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona , West Virginia 5: Ohio State, Gonzaga , Rhode Island, Michigan 6: Kentucky, Nevada , Creighton, Houston 7: Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas 8: Oklahoma, Florida State, Florida, TCU 9: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Kansas State...

Bubble winners today included Florida (over Auburn), Mississippi State (over South Carolina) and Louisville (over Virginia Tech) while losers included LSU (to Georgia), Baylor (to TCU) and Utah (to USC). I kept LSU in for now, I know that's an unpopular opinion but they have so many good wins right now and Washington's predictive metrics are worrying. A lot of SEC teams in the middle of the bracket, Atlanta will be fun. 1: Virginia, Xavier , Villanova, Kansas 2: Duke, Auburn , Purdue, Michigan State 3: North Carolina, Cincinnati , Tennessee, Texas Tech 4: Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona , West Virginia 5: Ohio State, Gonzaga , Rhode Island, Michigan 6: Kentucky, Nevada , Texas A&M, Houston 7: Creighton, Alabama, Missouri, Florida State 8: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Florida, Arizona State 9: TCU, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Kansas State 10: St. Mary's, Miami (FL), Middle Tennessee , Butler 11: North Carolina State, Providence, St. Bonaventure, (Texas/Mississippi Stat...

State. Houston and Arizona State took road losses yesterday, but neither fall that far. Utah moves closer to the bracket, if they beat USC and Colorado at home they'll probably be square on the cutline going into the Pac-12 tournament. Ohio State @ Indiana is the biggest game of the night, although tonight is largely a breather before a busy weekend. 1: Virginia, Villanova , Xavier, Kansas 2: Auburn , Duke, Purdue, Michigan State 3: North Carolina, Cincinnati , Texas Tech, Tennessee 4: Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona , West Virginia 5: Ohio State, Rhode Island, Gonzaga , Michigan 6: Kentucky, Nevada , Alabama, Texas A&M 7: Houston, Missouri, Arizona State, Creighton 8: Virginia Tech, Florida State, Kansas State, Oklahoma 9: Arkansas, St. Mary's, Seton Hall, TCU 10: Florida, Miami (FL), Butler, North Carolina State 11: St. Bonaventure, Middle Tennessee , LSU, (Providence/Texas) 12: (Syracuse/Baylor), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Louisiana 13: Vermont, Buf...

I had an interesting night last night at the Dunkin' Donuts Center, with the game getting called midway through the second half. Unfortunately, I won't be able to make it to the continuation of the game today, but at least I got an interesting story out of it. On the bubble, Texas and Syracuse both lost but both remain in for now. Virginia Tech and Kansas State got nice wins that have them up on the 8 line, pretty safely in the field for now. Florida's slide continues, it looks like they're trying the 2017 Vanderbilt method of making the tournament. Not sure they have the RPI for it, though. Most of the action tonight is in the Pac-12, the Arizona schools begin the Oregon road trip which is tougher than it looks, while Washington and UCLA have tough road games. But I wouldn't sleep on the game of the year in the Summit League, as South Dakota takes on South Dakota State. 1: Virginia, Villanova , Xavier, Kansas 2: Auburn , Duke, Purdue, Michigan State 3: North ...

The SEC continues to be a mess, as Missouri, Arkansas and Texas A&M all took losses at home last night. The Aggies only fall to the 7 line despite a 6-9 record in conference. Elsewhere, West Virginia smashed Baylor in Waco to drop the Bears out of the field for now. I'll be at a big bubble game tonight here in Providence as Seton Hall comes to town, but Michigan/Penn State is probably the most interesting game of the night. 1: Virginia, Villanova , Xavier, Kansas 2: Auburn , Duke, Purdue, Michigan State 3: Texas Tech , North Carolina, Cincinnati , Clemson 4: Tennessee, Wichita State, Arizona , West Virginia 5: Ohio State, Rhode Island, Gonzaga , Kentucky 6: Houston, Alabama, Michigan, Arizona State 7: Texas A&M, Nevada , Missouri, Creighton 8: Florida State, Oklahoma, Florida, Virginia Tech 9: Arkansas, Kansas State, St. Mary's, TCU 10: Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Butler, North Carolina State 11: St. Bonaventure, Providence, Middle Tennessee , (Syracuse/Texas) ...

I want to talk about the SEC briefly, specifically LSU and Georgia. I've consistently had both teams higher than the consensus because they have a ton of good wins- 7 Q1 and 1 Q2 win for LSU, 5 Q1 and 4 Q2 wins for Georgia. Sure, they have a lot of losses and bad RPI numbers, but why is Florida so safely in the field when they're in a similar situation? Why is Texas so far ahead of LSU and Georgia in most projections when they also have 11 losses in a good conference, with tons of good wins? Oklahoma getting a 4 seed and Kansas getting a 2 seed in the bracket reveal showed me that the committee is still focusing on quality wins above all else, and I think that people shouldn't be sleeping on these SEC bubble teams. 1: Virginia, Villanova , Xavier, Kansas 2: Auburn , Duke, Purdue, Michigan State 3: Texas Tech , North Carolina, Cincinnati , Clemson 4: Tennessee, Wichita State, Arizona , West Virginia 5: Ohio State, Rhode Island, Gonzaga , Missouri 6: Houston, Kentucky,...

I spent forever making this seed list, especially the 6-11 seed range. Everything is very fluid in the middle of the bracket, as some teams (Houston, Michigan) had big jumps in this update while others (Florida, Miami) are falling like a rock. The Arizona schools are now the only Pac-12 schools in the bracket, as UCLA and USC fall out. Oklahoma looks to stop their slide towards the bubble at the Phog tonight while Notre Dame looks to climb back into serious bubble contention against Miami. 1: Virginia, Villanova , Xavier, Kansas 2: Auburn , Duke, Purdue, Michigan State 3: Texas Tech , North Carolina, Cincinnati , Clemson 4: Tennessee, Wichita State, Arizona , West Virginia 5: Ohio State, Rhode Island, Gonzaga , Missouri 6: Houston, Kentucky, Alabama, Michigan 7: Creighton , Nevada , Texas A&M, Oklahoma 8: Florida State, Arizona State, Arkansas, Virginia Tech 9: Kansas State, Florida, St. Mary's, North Carolina State 10: St. Bonaventure, Providence, Miami (FL), Butler...

Auburn moves back onto the 1 line as Purdue fell to Wisconsin. St. Mary's took a questionable loss to San Francisco and falls closer to the bubble. USC, UCLA and Utah all got wins out west to help their bubble chances. The big game tonight is Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure- might be a must-win for the Bonnies if they want an at-large. 1: Virginia, Xavier, Villanova , Auburn 2: Kansas, Duke, Purdue, Texas Tech 3: Michigan State, Cincinnati , North Carolina, Tennessee 4: Arizona , Clemson, West Virginia, Ohio State 5: Rhode Island , Gonzaga , Oklahoma, Wichita State 6: Missouri, Creighton, Kentucky, Florida State 7: Texas A&M, Nevada , Florida, Alabama 8: Miami (FL), Houston, Providence, Seton Hall 9: Virginia Tech, Arizona State, TCU, St. Mary's 10: Louisville, Michigan, Kansas State, Arkansas 11: Middle Tennessee , North Carolina State, USC, (Butler/Texas) 12: (UCLA/Baylor), Loyola Chicago, New Mexico State, Vermont 13: Louisiana, Buffalo, Murray State, East Te...

It looks like I made a big mistake- I recently moved to Providence and was supposed to go to my first Providence basketball game last night against Villanova, but I opted to see Providence play Seton Hall next week because it was cheaper. A shame that I missed last night's thriller, hopefully the game next week is just as entertaining. The Friars move up to an 8 seed in today's projection, while Villanova falls to the 3rd 1 seed. If they lose to Xavier on Saturday, I might move them down to a 2. Two games I'm looking forward to tonight- Cincinnati @ Houston, as the Bearcats face their toughest challenge yet in the American, and Ohio State @ Penn State, as a Michigan State fan I'm pulling for the Nittany Lions so MSU can take a share of the Big Ten title. 1: Virginia, Xavier, Villanova , Purdue 2: Auburn, Kansas, Cincinnati , Duke 3: Texas Tech , Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee 4: Clemson, Ohio State, Arizona , West Virginia 5: Rhode Island , Gonzaga, Okl...

The biggest bubble news of the night was Butler dropping a home game against Georgetown- it was the Bulldogs' first bad non-Q1 loss of the year and they are now tumbling  close to the cutline. Elsewhere, Michigan State hammered Minnesota and Texas Tech got a nice win over Oklahoma. The big bubble game tonight is Nevada @ Boise State- the Broncos will likely vault back into the field with a win, but their at-large chances will become very slim. 1: Virginia, Villanova , Xavier, Purdue 2: Auburn, Kansas, Cincinnati , Duke 3: Texas Tech , Clemson, Michigan State, North Carolina 4: Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona , West Virginia 5: Rhode Island , Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Florida 6: Missouri, Kentucky, Wichita State, Creighton 7: Texas A&M, Alabama, Miami (FL), St. Mary's 8: Arizona State, Florida State, Nevada , Seton Hall 9: Virginia Tech, TCU, Houston, Louisville 10: Michigan, Providence, Arkansas, Middle Tennessee 11: Butler, Kansas State, USC, (LSU/Syracuse) 12: (Texas...

Crazy finish in the Patriot League last night as Bucknell erased a 10 point deficit in under a minute to extend their lead to 3 games. Baylor got a huge double OT win at Texas which propels them to the first four out, and drops the Longhorns down close to the cutline. TCU lost again and has now dropped 9 of 14, the schedule eases a bit now as they don't play any teams above them in this projection until Texas Tech at the end of the regular season. I'll have my eye on Texas A&M @ Missouri tonight: both teams are scorching hot and making a climb up the bracket. It's not impossible for either to work their way up to a protected seed if they can continue to win. 1: Virginia, Villanova , Xavier, Purdue 2: Auburn, Kansas, Cincinnati , Duke 3: Clemson, Texas Tech, Michigan State, North Carolina 4: Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona , Oklahoma 5: West Virginia, Rhode Island , Gonzaga, Florida 6: Texas A&M, Kentucky, Wichita State, Creighton 7: Missouri, Alabama, Miami (...

For me, The biggest surprise in the committee's top 16 reveal was Oklahoma as a 4 seed- to me that shows the importance of group 1 wins, of which Oklahoma has 6. Overall, I had Gonzaga and Rhode Island instead of Arizona and Oklahoma as 4 seeds, and I flipped Texas Tech and Duke on the 2/3 lines. Michigan State was a bit lower than I expected, which could be a sign that the predictive-based metrics will not be that influential this year. The Big 12 is the focus of attention tonight, as all of the teams clogged in the middle of the conference standings fight for positioning. 1: Virginia, Villanova , Xavier, Purdue 2: Auburn, Kansas, Cincinnati , Duke 3: Clemson, Texas Tech, Michigan State, North Carolina 4: Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona , Oklahoma 5: Rhode Island , Gonzaga, Florida, West Virginia 6: Texas A&M, Kentucky, Wichita State, Creighton 7: Missouri, Alabama, Miami (FL), St. Mary's 8: Arizona State, Florida State, TCU, Nevada 9: Virginia Tech, Butler, Seton...

Massive movement in the seed list yesterday, from the top to the bottom. Some quick notes on the seed list: -I have no clue how to rank teams 4 through 10 (Purdue, my 2 seeds, Michigan State and Clemson). I could see the committee doing absolutely anything among these teams. Michigan State in particular will be an interesting litmus test as to the power of the RPI vs. predictive metrics. -There was also a ton of upheaval on the 5 through 8 lines. Big winners include Texas A&M, who jumped all the way from an 8 seed to a 5 seed, Alabama, who is now far from the bubble foray, and Florida who jumped from a 5 to a 7. Those big jumps were caused by lots of teams in the area losing- West Virginia, Creighton, Oklahoma, Miami, St. Mary's and more. The committee's reveal of their top 16 teams will be telling today- I'm watching for Michigan State's seed, as mentioned above, but also as to whether or not Gonzaga and Rhode Island will make the top 16, as they have similarly...

Aside from Duke/UNC, the interesting action last night was on the west coast. UCLA moves closer to the field with a win at Arizona which drops the Pac-12 leaders to the 6 line. Washington looked like their Kenpom rating in a blowout loss in Autzen. And Gonzaga and St. Mary's keep chugging along en route to their titanic clash this Saturday. Davidson at Rhode Island is the biggest game tonight- the Wildcats are better than most people realize so this will be a tough game for the Rams. 1: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Xavier 2: Kansas, Cincinnati , Auburn , Tennessee 3: Clemson, Texas Tech , Michigan State, Duke 4: North Carolina, West Virginia, Rhode Island , Ohio State 5: Florida, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Miami (FL) 6: St. Mary's , Wichita State, Gonzaga, Arizona 7: Creighton, Florida State, Missouri, Seton Hall 8: Texas A&M, Providence, Alabama, Arizona State 9: Butler, Texas, Nevada , TCU 10: Houston, Louisville, Michigan, Arkansas 11: Washington, Middle Tennessee ...

3 of the top 5 teams on the seed list fell at home last night, although none of them moved seed lines. Purdue's grasp on a 1 seed is now much more tenuous- they'll probably drop if they lose in East Lansing on Saturday, while the Spartans may move up to a 2 seed with a win. On the bubble, Kansas State and Virginia Tech got big wins against fellow bubble teams Texas and NC State and move into the field. 1: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Xavier 2: Kansas, Cincinnati , Auburn , Tennessee 3: Clemson, Texas Tech , Michigan State, Duke 4: West Virginia, Rhode Island , Ohio State, North Carolina 5: Florida, Arizona , Oklahoma, Kentucky 6: Miami (FL), St. Mary's , Wichita State, Gonzaga 7: Creighton, Florida State, Missouri, Seton Hall 8: Texas A&M, Providence, Alabama, Butler 9: Texas, Washington, Nevada , Arizona State 10: TCU, Louisville, Michigan, Arkansas 11: Houston, Middle Tennessee , USC, (Kansas State/Virginia Tech) 12: (LSU/Boise State), New Mexico State, ...

Xavier moves up to a one seed with their win at Butler, and Boise State moves into the field with a nice win at New Mexico. I'll have my eye on Purdue/Ohio State tonight as the Boilermakers play their first of two huge games in a row. 1: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Xavier 2: Auburn , Kansas, Cincinnati , Clemson 3: Tennessee, Texas Tech , Michigan State, Duke 4: West Virginia, Rhode Island , North Carolina, Arizona 5: Florida, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Miami (FL) 6: St. Mary's , Wichita State, Florida State, Seton Hall 7: Gonzaga, Creighton, Ohio State, Nevada 8: Texas, Missouri, Providence, Alabama 9: Butler, Washington, Arizona State, TCU 10: Louisville, Michigan, Arkansas, Texas A&M 11: Houston, Middle Tennessee , USC, (North Carolina State/LSU) 12: (Georgia/Boise State), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Louisiana 13: Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee State, Montana 14: Northern Kentucky, Belmont, South Dakota State, UC Santa Barbara 15: Bucknell, Florida Gul...

West Virginia handed Oklahoma their first home loss of the year, which drops Oklahoma from the protected seeds for the first time all year. Syracuse moves closer to the bracket with a big win at Louisville. Tonight will be huge throughout the bracket, I'll be keeping my eye specifically on the 1-seed race as Xavier goes to Hinkle Fieldhouse and Kansas hosts a TCU team which has been their kryptonite in recent years. 1: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Auburn 2: Xavier, Kansas, Cincinnati , Clemson 3: Texas Tech , Tennessee, Michigan State, Duke 4: West Virginia, Kentucky, Rhode Island , North Carolina 5: Arizona , Florida, Oklahoma, Miami (FL) 6: St. Mary's , Wichita State, Florida State, Seton Hall 7: Gonzaga, Alabama, Creighton, Ohio State 8: Nevada , Texas, Butler, Providence 9: Missouri, Michigan, TCU, Washington 10: Arizona State, Louisville, Texas A&M, Arkansas 11: Houston, Middle Tennessee , USC, (North Carolina State/LSU) 12: (Georgia/Kansas State), New Mex...

A huge weekend sees many changes- headlined by a new #1 seed: Auburn. With both Kansas and Duke losing, I had lots of  options at the end of the 1-line, but Auburn has such a depth of quality wins that I chose them over Xavier and Kansas. I also re-evaluated every team's resume yesterday, and there's a lot of moves during that. Some teams (such as Duke, Ohio State and TCU) have less meat on their resume than I realized, while others (such as Rhode Island, Alabama and Washington) have more. 1: Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Auburn 2: Xavier, Kansas, Cincinnati , Clemson 3: Texas Tech , Tennessee, Michigan State, Duke 4: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Rhode Island , North Carolina 5: West Virginia, Arizona , Florida, Miami (FL) 6: St. Mary's , Wichita State, Florida State, Seton Hall 7: Gonzaga, Alabama, Creighton, Ohio State 8: Nevada , Texas, Butler, Louisville 9: Providence, Missouri, Michigan, TCU 10: Washington, Arizona State, Texas A&M, Arkansas 11: Houston, M...

Utah lost a tough one at Colorado and is now a long way from the field, while Rhode Island is nearing protected seed status as they continue to romp through the A-10. Today is huge throughout the bracket, enjoy what will promise to be one of the best days of college hoops of the year. 1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas 2: Duke, Xavier, Clemson, Auburn 3: Cincinnati , Oklahoma, Michigan State, Texas Tech 4: Arizona , Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia 5: Seton Hall, Rhode Island , North Carolina, Miami (FL) 6: Ohio State, TCU, Florida, Wichita State 7: Creighton, St. Mary's , Gonzaga, Texas 8: Nevada , Butler, Texas A&M, Michigan 9: Louisville, Arizona State, Arkansas, Florida State 10: Alabama, Providence, Kansas State, Missouri 11: North Carolina State, Washington, Middle Tennessee, (USC/Georgia) 12: (Houston/Boise State), New Mexico State, Louisiana, East Tennessee State 13: Loyola Chicago, Murray State, Vermont, Montana 14: Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, So...

Relatively quiet night- Washington moves into the field for the first time all season with a win over Arizona State, and Temple moves into consideration with a win over Wichita State. Utah and Rhode Island have deceptively tricky road games tonight, and then a packed Saturday awaits. 1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas 2: Duke, Xavier, Clemson, Auburn 3: Cincinnati , Oklahoma, Michigan State, Texas Tech 4: Arizona , Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia 5: Seton Hall, North Carolina, Rhode Island , Miami (FL) 6: Ohio State, TCU, Florida, Wichita State 7: Creighton, St. Mary's , Gonzaga, Texas 8: Nevada , Butler, Texas A&M, Michigan 9: Louisville, Arizona State, Arkansas, Florida State 10: Alabama, Providence, Kansas State, Missouri 11: North Carolina State, Washington, Middle Tennessee, (USC/Georgia) 12: (Houston/Boise State), New Mexico State, Louisiana, East Tennessee State 13: Loyola Chicago, Murray State, Vermont, Montana 14: Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, Sou...

Lots of bubble action last night, as Marquette, South Carolina and Houston all missed big opportunities for wins. West Virginia lost in Ames to fall to 5-4 in the Big 12 and is danger of losing a protected seed. Huge game tonight in the Pac-12 as Arizona State takes on Washington- the Huskies would move into the field with a win, which would send Arizona State closer to the bubble. 1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas 2: Duke, Xavier, Clemson, Auburn 3: Cincinnati , Oklahoma, Michigan State, Texas Tech 4: Arizona , Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia 5: Seton Hall, North Carolina, Rhode Island , Wichita State 6: Miami (FL), Ohio State, TCU, Florida 7: Creighton, St. Mary's , Gonzaga, Arizona State 8: Texas, Nevada , Butler, Texas A&M 9: Michigan, Louisville, Arkansas, Florida State 10: Alabama, Providence, Kansas State, Missouri 11: North Carolina State, USC, (Georgia/Houston), (Boise State/Virginia Tech) 12: Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Louisiana, East T...