Sunday, February 11, 2018

Bracketology 2/11/18

Massive movement in the seed list yesterday, from the top to the bottom. Some quick notes on the seed list:
-I have no clue how to rank teams 4 through 10 (Purdue, my 2 seeds, Michigan State and Clemson). I could see the committee doing absolutely anything among these teams. Michigan State in particular will be an interesting litmus test as to the power of the RPI vs. predictive metrics.
-There was also a ton of upheaval on the 5 through 8 lines. Big winners include Texas A&M, who jumped all the way from an 8 seed to a 5 seed, Alabama, who is now far from the bubble foray, and Florida who jumped from a 5 to a 7. Those big jumps were caused by lots of teams in the area losing- West Virginia, Creighton, Oklahoma, Miami, St. Mary's and more.

The committee's reveal of their top 16 teams will be telling today- I'm watching for Michigan State's seed, as mentioned above, but also as to whether or not Gonzaga and Rhode Island will make the top 16, as they have similarly wide gulfs between their RPIs and Kenpom/Sagarin. It's only 4 weeks until Selection Sunday, buckle up because it's going to be a bumpy ride.

1: Villanova, Virginia, Xavier, Purdue
2: Auburn, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Kansas
3: Michigan State, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke
4: Tennessee, Ohio State, Gonzaga, Rhode Island
5: Arizona, Florida, West Virginia, Texas A&M
6: Kentucky, Wichita State, Creighton, Missouri
7: Alabama, Oklahoma, Miami (FL), St. Mary's
8: Arizona State, Florida State, TCU, Nevada
9: Virginia Tech, Butler, Seton Hall, Houston
10: Louisville, Michigan, Providence, Texas
11: Arkansas, Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, (USC/North Carolina State)
12: (LSU/Syracuse), New Mexico State, Loyola Chicago, Vermont
13: Louisiana, Buffalo, Murray State, East Tennessee State
14: Montana, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, UC Santa Barbara
15: Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Charleston, Rider
16: Wagner, Penn, (Nicholls State/UNC Asheville), (Grambling State/Savannah State)

First Four Out: Washington, UCLA, Marquette, Boise State
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Georgia, Oklahoma State, St. Bonaventure
In Consideration: Utah, Baylor, New Mexico State, SMU, Temple, Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky, South Carolina
On the Brink: Notre Dame, Nebraska, BYU, Boston College, Maryland, Colorado, Louisiana, Oregon, UCF

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