Bracketology 2/1/14
Had a busy week so didn't have an update in the middle of the week. Some notes:
1. Southern Miss and Harvard's places in the Last Four Byes and First Four Out lists indicate where I would have them seeded if they did not currently have their autobid. So, if Harvard did not currently have the Ivy League's autobid, they would be my third team out.
2. In this update, I've switched to giving conference leaders (or those tied with the conference leader in the loss column) autobids. I don't like doing this at the beginning of the conference season because with so few conference games played, often times the conference leader is the third or fourth best team in the conference. At this point, with most teams having played about 8 conference games, I feel as if teams leading their conferences are probably the best team in the conference.
3. You'll notice that some bubble teams did not far as much as you would think they would fall due to losses since the last update. This is simply because so many of them had confounding losses during the past week (Baylor, Providence, SMU, Saint Mary's, Louisiana Tech, Dayton and Indiana State) that those who had understandable losses (Stanford, California, Arkansas) may have even rose.
4. I thought long and hard about whether to give the last 1 seed to Wichita State or Michigan State. I ended up going with the Spartans mainly because of their 6-2 record versus tournament teams, compared to Wichita State's 2-0. If Wichita State gets through their two toughest remaining games this week (@ Indiana State and @ Northern Iowa) they'll almost certainly jump up to my 1 line.
5. Remember that the seed list snakes. That is, the odd numbered lines are read left to right and the even numbered lines are read right to left.
1: Arizona, Syracuse, Kansas, Michigan State
2: San Diego State, Florida, Villanova, Wichita State
3: Creighton, Duke, Michigan, Oklahoma State
4: Virginia, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Oklahoma
5: Pittsburgh, Iowa, Kentucky, Massachusetts
6: Colorado, Gonzaga, Memphis, Wisconsin
7: Saint Louis, UCLA, Louisville, Ohio State
8: George Washington, Minnesota, Connecticut, Texas
9: Xavier, New Mexico, Kansas State, VCU
10: Oregon, Florida State, Arizona State, North Carolina
11: Southern Miss, Tennessee, Baylor, Missouri
12: UW-Green Bay, Harvard, (Providence vs. SMU), (Richmond vs. Stanford)
13: Toledo, Stephen F. Austin, UC-Santa Barbara, North Dakota State
14: Georgia State, Vermont, Delaware, Mercer
15: American, Iona, Belmont, North Carolina Central
16: (Utah Valley vs. Southern ), (Coastal Carolina vs. Weber State), Davidson, Robert Morris
Last Four Byes:
Southern Miss (see note)
Tennessee
Baylor
Missouri
Last Four In:
Richmond
Providence
First Four Out:
LSU
BYU
Harvard (see note)
Next Four Out:
Also Considered:
Mississippi
Louisiana Tech
Indiana State
Dayton
Boise State
1. Southern Miss and Harvard's places in the Last Four Byes and First Four Out lists indicate where I would have them seeded if they did not currently have their autobid. So, if Harvard did not currently have the Ivy League's autobid, they would be my third team out.
2. In this update, I've switched to giving conference leaders (or those tied with the conference leader in the loss column) autobids. I don't like doing this at the beginning of the conference season because with so few conference games played, often times the conference leader is the third or fourth best team in the conference. At this point, with most teams having played about 8 conference games, I feel as if teams leading their conferences are probably the best team in the conference.
3. You'll notice that some bubble teams did not far as much as you would think they would fall due to losses since the last update. This is simply because so many of them had confounding losses during the past week (Baylor, Providence, SMU, Saint Mary's, Louisiana Tech, Dayton and Indiana State) that those who had understandable losses (Stanford, California, Arkansas) may have even rose.
4. I thought long and hard about whether to give the last 1 seed to Wichita State or Michigan State. I ended up going with the Spartans mainly because of their 6-2 record versus tournament teams, compared to Wichita State's 2-0. If Wichita State gets through their two toughest remaining games this week (@ Indiana State and @ Northern Iowa) they'll almost certainly jump up to my 1 line.
5. Remember that the seed list snakes. That is, the odd numbered lines are read left to right and the even numbered lines are read right to left.
1: Arizona, Syracuse, Kansas, Michigan State
2: San Diego State, Florida, Villanova, Wichita State
3: Creighton, Duke, Michigan, Oklahoma State
4: Virginia, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Oklahoma
5: Pittsburgh, Iowa, Kentucky, Massachusetts
6: Colorado, Gonzaga, Memphis, Wisconsin
7: Saint Louis, UCLA, Louisville, Ohio State
8: George Washington, Minnesota, Connecticut, Texas
9: Xavier, New Mexico, Kansas State, VCU
10: Oregon, Florida State, Arizona State, North Carolina
11: Southern Miss, Tennessee, Baylor, Missouri
12: UW-Green Bay, Harvard, (Providence vs. SMU), (Richmond vs. Stanford)
13: Toledo, Stephen F. Austin, UC-Santa Barbara, North Dakota State
14: Georgia State, Vermont, Delaware, Mercer
15: American, Iona, Belmont, North Carolina Central
16: (Utah Valley vs. Southern ), (Coastal Carolina vs. Weber State), Davidson, Robert Morris
Last Four Byes:
Southern Miss (see note)
Tennessee
Baylor
Missouri
Richmond
Providence
SMU
Stanford
LSU
BYU
Harvard (see note)
Clemson
California
Arkansas
St. Mary's
GeorgetownMississippi
Louisiana Tech
Indiana State
Dayton
Boise State
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