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The part of the bracket I feel least certain about is the 9 through 11 seeds. There's some mid-majors in here who have strung together a few wins (VCU, BYU, St. Mary's) and some high major teams that are struggling. I've settled on this version for now, but things are very fluid in this area. I was getting ready to shout out the at-large case of East Tennessee State in this space today, as they had quite a nice resume going. However, the Buccaneers got whipped by Kenpom #212 Mercer at home last night, taking a massive bite out of their at-large case. In all likelihood, Northern Iowa is our only real potential mid-major at-large this year, although ETSU, Yale or Stephen F. Austin could get in the conversation if they win out. 1:  Baylor , Kansas,  San Diego State, Gonzaga 2:  Duke, Dayton , Seton Hall , West Virginia 3: Florida State, Michigan State , Butler, Villanova 4: Louisville, Maryland,  Oregon , Iowa 5: Penn State,  Auburn , Creighton, Colora...

There were plenty of bubble losers over the weekend, muddying the picture even further. I've moved VCU into the field as they've strung a few wins together, and moved Virginia Tech out after a bad loss to Boston College. There's a lot of teams in the middle of the bracket that I think could play their way out of the field in the next few weeks, and statistically at least a few of them will. Stanford is falling after a bad loss at Cal and the metrics say they're not that good, and Michigan is on a bad losing streak themselves. There's also going to be some teams outside the picture who make a run into the field like Baylor last year, Mississippi State and Cincinnati are two candidates. 1:  Baylor , Kansas,  San Diego State, Gonzaga 2:  Duke, Dayton , Florida State, West Virginia 3: Seton Hall, Michigan State, Butler, Louisville 4: Villanova, Maryland,  Oregon , Iowa 5: Auburn, Penn State, Creighton, Colorado 6: Kentucky, Arizona, Illinois, LSU 7: Housto...

A relatively quiet Thursday and Friday leads to no changes in the at-large teams in the bracket. Purdue picked up a big win at home against Wisconsin, and is more comfortably in the field now. Michigan State fell at Indiana and is down to the 3 line. The Spartans are going to have to start winning some road games in Big Ten play if they want to get up to a 1 or a 2 seed. A busy weekend awaits, highlighted by the Big 12/SEC challenge. I'll be keeping an eye on Baylor at Florida, where the Gators have a great chance for a signature win to move them off the bubble. 1:  Baylor , Kansas,  San Diego State, Gonzaga 2:  Duke, Dayton , Florida State, West Virginia 3: Seton Hall, Butler, Michigan State, Louisville 4: Villanova,  Oregon , Iowa, Auburn 5: Maryland, Penn State, Arizona, Creighton 6: Stanford, Colorado,  Houston , Wisconsin 7: Wichita State, Rutgers, Kentucky, Michigan 8: Indiana, Illinois, LSU, Texas Tech 9: Ohio State, Marquette, USC, Arkansas ...

Most of the action since Monday has been in the 9 to 10 seed range. Texas Tech, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Memphis and Purdue all lost, making that area of the seed list quite muddy. This leads to some strange seeds in that area, such as USC as a 9 seed. The Trojans' adjusted efficiency margins are quite bad for an at-large, but they've got a solid resume. After their drubbing at the hands of Tulsa, it's time to consider that Memphis may not actually make the field. Their best wins are over NC State on a neutral and at Tennessee, and they have a bit of an ugly home loss to Georgia. There are strangely few opportunities in the American this year, as they won't play a Kenpom tier A game until they travel to a resurgent Cincinnati on February 13th. In a weak AAC, 10-8 or 11-7 in conference may not get it done. 1: Baylor , Kansas, San Diego State, Gonzaga 2: Duke, Dayton , Florida State, Michigan State 3: West Virginia, Butler, Seton Hall, Louisville 4: Villanova, Oregon , ...

For the first time in a few weeks, I've gone through and re-evaluated all of the resumes. Some winners include San Diego State, who is up to a 1 seed for the first time all year, and Iowa, who moves into the protected seeds. On the other hand, the wheels have fallen off for Ohio State and the Buckeyes are all the way down to the 8 line. I'm also getting more bullish on the at-large chances of two mid-majors, Northern Iowa and Liberty. The Panthers picked up a big road win at Bradley, and has a decent number of Q2 and Q3 games ahead of them. Liberty is going to be large favorites in every remaining game, if they run the table they'll be hard to leave out and I think they could maybe afford a regular season loss. A big week lies ahead, especially in the Big East and the Big Ten. My next update will come Thursday morning. 1: Baylor , Kansas, San Diego State, Gonzaga 2: Duke, Butler, Dayton , Florida State 3: Michigan State, Seton Hall, West Virginia, Louisville 4: Oreg...

The biggest story is at the top of the bracket, where Baylor has moved up to the #1 overall seed after their massive win at Kansas. Their lone blemish is a loss to Washington in November, and that win in the Phog is the best any team has picked up all season. Looking at the bids by conference, the Big Ten currently has a record 12 teams in the field. It's quite unlikely that all 12 are going to make it, but the conference remains as strong as it's ever been. On the other hand, we have the ACC. It has 3 protected seeds, but no other teams in the field as Virginia and NC State fall out in this update. I think they probably end up with 4 or 5 bids, but it's crazy to think that a team could get a double bye in the ACC tournament and not make the NCAAs. The next update will come Monday afternoon, and updates will be at least twice a week from there on out. 1: Baylor, Duke, Gonzaga , Kansas 2: Butler, San Diego State , West Virginia, Oregon 3: Michigan State, Dayton , Aub...

A busy week leads to changes up and down the seed list. Ohio State is falling after a 1-3 start in Big Ten play- the Buckeyes were on the 1 line a few weeks ago, and their win over North Carolina has lost a lot of luster. The Big Ten is looking more and more like Michigan State's conference to lose. Speaking of the Big Ten, as of right now they have 9 teams in the field and the first 3 teams out of the field as well. They could challenge the Big East's record for 11 teams in the tournament. A lot of these teams are going to end up with a lot of losses- the record for an at-large is 15, but both teams who made it with 15 losses (2017 Vanderbilt and 2018 Alabama) did so comfortably. 1: Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, Butler 2: San Diego State , Baylor, Auburn, Michigan State 3: Oregon, Ohio State, Maryland, West Virginia 4: Louisville, Florida State,  Dayton , Wichita State 5: Villanova, Seton Hall, Kentucky, Michigan 6: Penn State, Arizona, Texas Tech, Stanford 7: Houston, Color...

The first Saturday of conference play bought plenty of changes to the seed list. Moving into the field are Wisconsin, who picked up one of the wins of the season at Ohio State, and LSU, who knocked off Tennessee. Other big winners include Florida State, who is into the protected seeds after beating Louisville, and Penn State who beat Iowa. The race for the 1 seeds is getting interesting, and San Diego State is a legitimate player. The Aztecs could be double digit favorites in every game until their last at Nevada, and own 3 wins away from home against teams in the top half of the field. The road to a 1 seed from a 1 bid league is tough, but a lack of clear candidates elsewhere will help them out. There will likely only be 1 update a week for the next 2 weeks, as I'm going to be travelling out of the country. 1: Gonzaga, Kansas, Duke, Butler 2: San Diego State, Ohio State, Auburn , Baylor 3: Louisville, Maryland, Oregon, West Virginia 4: Florida State, Michigan, Michigan St...

This is the first bracketology of the new decade- the 2010s were quite a busy decade for my projections. I started my bracketology in 2011 on a different website, and I published my first bracketology here  on January 11th, 2012 . The four teams I projected as the #1 seeds there actually did get the 1 seeds on Selection Sunday- I hope to have the same level of accuracy this year. It's been a relatively quiet few days in college hoops, with the biggest result being Kentucky's win over Louisville. Closer to the bubble, the mid-majors have taken quite a hit. Northern Iowa and Liberty looked like the two best bets for an at-large bid from traditional 1-bid leagues, but the Panthers fell to Illinois State while Liberty lost to LSU. The Flames could be an interesting test case for the committee if they go 17-1 in ASun play and lose in the conference tournament, as no 3 loss team has ever failed to earn a bid. Conference play continues to ramp up over the next few days- and I...