Bracketology 1/1/20

This is the first bracketology of the new decade- the 2010s were quite a busy decade for my projections. I started my bracketology in 2011 on a different website, and I published my first bracketology here on January 11th, 2012. The four teams I projected as the #1 seeds there actually did get the 1 seeds on Selection Sunday- I hope to have the same level of accuracy this year.

It's been a relatively quiet few days in college hoops, with the biggest result being Kentucky's win over Louisville. Closer to the bubble, the mid-majors have taken quite a hit. Northern Iowa and Liberty looked like the two best bets for an at-large bid from traditional 1-bid leagues, but the Panthers fell to Illinois State while Liberty lost to LSU. The Flames could be an interesting test case for the committee if they go 17-1 in ASun play and lose in the conference tournament, as no 3 loss team has ever failed to earn a bid.

Conference play continues to ramp up over the next few days- and I'll be paying special attention to the Big East. 9 of the league's 10 teams harbor legitimate NCAA tournament aspirations, and the 10th (Providence) just demolished Georgetown. I'll also be going to the Big East Tournament at MSG in March, so I'll be keeping an eye on the league all year.

I'd also like to give a special shoutout to Rutgers, as I believe in my 10 years of doing bracketology this is the first time I've ever projected them to make the field.

1: Gonzaga, Kansas, Ohio State, Duke

2: Butler, San Diego State, Louisville, Oregon

3: West Virginia, Auburn, Baylor, Maryland

4: Michigan, Michigan State, Villanova, Memphis

5: Arizona, Florida State, Dayton, Wichita State

6: Kentucky, Penn State, Iowa, Arkansas

7: Virginia, Creighton, Seton Hall, Marquette

8: Texas Tech, BYU, Colorado, Houston

9: Purdue, Stanford, Xavier, Utah State

10: Florida, Indiana, St. Mary's, Tennessee

11: NC State, Texas, (VCU/Oklahoma), (USC/Rutgers)

12: Northern Iowa, Liberty, East Tennessee State, Yale

13: Louisiana Tech, Akron, Vermont, Stephen F. Austin

14: Georgia State, Colgate, Belmont, New Mexico State

15: Delaware, Rider, Wright State, Hawaii

16: Sacramento State, St. Francis PA, (Texas Southern/Oral Roberts), (Radford/Bethune Cookman)

First Four Out: DePaul, LSU, North Carolina, Washington

Next Four Out: Georgetown, Minnesota, Temple, Oklahoma State

Moving In: Oklahoma, USC, Rutgers

Moving Out: Washington, DePaul, Georgetown

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

Big 12: 6

Big East: 6

ACC: 5

SEC: 5

Pac-12: 5

American: 3

West Coast: 3

Atlantic 10: 2

Mountain West: 2