Bracketology 2/27/13
News and Notes:
1) Instead of the whole bold italic underline thing from the last bracket, I'm going with the following system:
Locks are green
Should be in's are yellow
Right on the bubble teams are orange
Fringe bubble teams are red
Auto-bids or bust are in black
2) Tennessee appears! I'm not putting them in my First Four Out, but they've jumped out of the fringes of the bubble conversation.
3) I may make some re-evaluation updates to the bracket tomorrow. We'll see.
4) Remember the seed list snakes, so Indiana is the top 1, Michigan the top 2, New Mexico the top 3, Marquette the top 4, etc.
1: Indiana, Duke, Miami (FL), Gonzaga
2: Georgetown, Louisville, Kansas, Michigan
3: New Mexico, Michigan State, Florida, Arizona
4: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Marquette
5: Ohio State,Minnesota, Butler, Oklahoma State
6: Illinois, Colorado State, Pittsburgh, UNLV
7: Notre Dame, Oklahoma, North Carolina State, VCU
8: Missouri, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Oregon
9: Colorado, San Diego State, UCLA, Wichita State
10: Iowa State, California, Memphis, North Carolina,
11: La Salle, Middle Tennessee, Temple, Boise State
12: Belmont, (Kentucky/Baylor), (Saint Mary's/Mississippi), Creighton
13: Louisiana Tech, Akron, Bucknell, Stephen F Austin
14: Davidson, Harvard, Valparaiso, South Dakota State
15: Mercer, Montana, Stony Brook, Long Beach State
16: (Niagara/Robert Morris), (Norfolk State/High Point), Southern, Northeastern
Last Four Byes:
Middle TennesseeTemple
Boise State
Creighton
Last Four In:
Kentucky
Saint Mary's
Mississippi
Baylor
First Four Out:
BelmontVillanova
Maryland
Virginia
Next Four Out:
Louisiana TechTennessee
Arizona State
Saint John's
Also Considered:
Massachusetts
Indiana State
Indiana State
Charlotte
Southern MissAkron
Arkansas
ReplyDeleteHello-
Thanks for these excellent brackets. However to include Middle Tennessee, Temple, Boise State
(Kentucky/Baylor), (Saint Mary's/Mississippi), - and ahead of us in last 4 out - Belmont
Villanova, and MARYLAND !?!? before Virginia is a travesty. :) Did you see UVa DOMINATE Md. at College Park a couple weeks ago? Did you see the terps get dominated by Boston College?
I hope you'll be updating this fine bracket on Friday when Virginia takes Duke down in Cville tomorrow night.
I am shocked UVa isn't already in your bracket having shown we can go toe to toe at Miami, dispatched the Terps at College Park, took down the Pack and Heels at the JPJ, and paid back the Jackets (who beat us in January in Atlanta) by 28 this past Sunday. We also dispatched the badgers at Kohl early on - pretty much without our point guard jontel evans - and beat Tennessee as well. yes we have some sucky losses - but all due to said PG absence (and other players) and losses at George Mason and Delaware were Nov 9 and 13 respectively (closing in on 4 months ago) with ZERO POINT GUARDS of three we had coming into season (evans, teven jones, malcom brogdon). And yes - these are excuses - when this team that doesn't exist any more - lost to Delaware we then lost out on two high RPI games at the MSG in the preseason NIT and instead got two wins over lowly rated North Texas and Lamaar - yes our fault - but not intentional weak sister scheduling.
The loss to ODU on neutral site in December was a perfect storm of no Jontel Evans, Joe Harris with the flu, a super motivated in-state mid major, a red hot 3 baller, and horrible officiating. yes, excuses all.
Anyway we are not that team anymore. I wonder if you've watched us recently? If you still have Maryland in over us it seems likely you have not. I do hope you'll be watching tomorrow night at 9pm eastern on ESPN when the clearly NCAA caliber Cavaliers take on duke. thanks.
Since January - the losses at Clem, Wake and GT just cannot be looked at as terrible losses - see Wake over Miami, and Clem 1 possession from beating mia and ncsu. We scored 82 at the Deane Dome but were beaten by a red hot UNC, and came down to final 6 seconds tied at Miami last week. If you will go find that game and watch it - you'll see we are clearly an NCAA team. (without our disastrous rpi bombing Delaware/NIT debacle I'm confident our RPI would be in the 40's or 50's at worst. Do you follow Ken Pomeroy? We're only ranked 17 there - and 27 in the ESPN BPI power ratings.
anyway, thanks for your work. I look forward to the wahoos inclusion in your esteemed bracket at its next update.
Thanks for all the work.
DCWahoo
Well, thanks for the input!
DeleteI agree wholeheartedly with you that Virginia looks to be among the 37 best teams who won't win the conference tournament. But that's with the eye test. I'll respond in a list format:
1) I do, in fact follow KenPom (I'm subscribed to his site)
2) The BPI and KenPom are both better systems than the RPI. I will not dispute that and I think most people who are in the know about college hoops won't dispute that either. However, the committee does not use either of those metrics. They use the RPI, as outdated and flawed as it is. And here's what the RPI says about Virginia:
An RPI of 69 (fringe of at-large inclusion)
6 losses to teams rated RPI 140 or worse
3) You're right that my ranking of Virginia may be a little harsh. However, my job isn't to say who I think the best teams are (Michigan would not be sniffing the top line if that was the case). It's to say who I think the committee will say are the best teams. And the precedent is not there for a team with Virginia's current resume to get in. You make some valid points, and I may slide Virginia up 2 spots or so in my next bracket. And I'll sure as hell tell you that if they're in the bracket, I'm picking them in a 12/5 upset, because they are incredibly underrated.
Hope that helps!
Ivar