Bracketology 3/7/15

No movement among the top 11 lines today. But quite a bit of movement a the bottom. All teams from Buffalo on down are simply sorted by RPI for now. I did some research and discovered that over the past couple of years the best indicator of seed for teams below the at-large First Four games is Bracket Matrix place, not RPI. This isn't shocking to me, most bracketologists out there get to watch a lot more mid-major and low-major ball than I do. Hell, I haven't even seen some of the teams higher up in my bracket (San Diego State and St. John's come to mind) all year. Once the low and mid-major conference tourneys get settled I will probably lean towards the consensus for mid-majors. 

Central Michigan, Harvard and High Point all dropped out of the field today, with Buffalo, Yale and Coastal Carolina taking their spots. The Chippewas fell in Kalamazoo, which is not surprising given that Western Michigan has a winning record in a very strong MAC and those teams really hate each other. Seriously, if I hadn't grown up in this state I would have no clue how intense the Central/Western rivalry is. I still don't fully understand it. Unlike the "Little Brother" from the faraway northern lands of Mount Pleasant, both Harvard and High Point will have an awfully hard time making the field. Harvard needs to beat Brown at home (easy) and also have Yale lose at Dartmouth (who sports a 6-7 Ivy League record). That would just force a 1 game Yale/Harvard playoff for the autobid, and the Crimson couldn't even beat Yale in Cambridge tonight. High Point got knocked out in a great game by Gardner-Webb, whose possible inclusion in the tournament would perhaps (probably unfairly) improve most people's take on Purdue.

The link to the bracket can be found here. There is one minor issue I noticed after making the whole bracket, which is sending the Texas/Texas A&M winner to Seattle on Friday. If a team is going to go from the First Four to the west coast they should play the Tuesday First Four game, but the at-large First Four game needs to be Boise State/Temple since they're in a Thursday site. Whatever, it's 1:20 AM.

1: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova

2: Arizona, Kansas, Wisconsin, Gonzaga

3: Iowa State, Maryland, Notre Dame, Oklahoma

4: Baylor, Utah, Wichita State, North Carolina

5: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Louisville, Providence

6: Butler, West Virginia, SMU, Georgetown

7: San Diego State, St. John's, VCU, Dayton

8: Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Oklahoma State

9: Colorado State, Oregon, Georgia, Mississippi

10: North Carolina State, Davidson, Cincinnati, Xavier

11: Indiana, BYU, LSU, Boise State/Temple

12: Texas/Texas A&M, Buffalo, Wofford, Iona

13: Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Yale, Murray State

14: Valparaiso, UC Davis, Georgia State, South Dakota State

15: Eastern Washington William & Mary, North Carolina Central, New Mexico State

16: Albany, Bucknell, (Texas Southern/Coastal Carolina), (St. Francis (NY)/North Florida)

Last Four Byes: Xavier, Indiana, BYU, LSU

Last Four In: Boise State, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M

First Four Out: Purdue, Tulsa, Illinois, Stanford

Next Four Out: UCLA, Old Dominion, Richmond, Miami (FL)

Needing a Miracle: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rhode Island, Kansas State

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